jorgenswest

The closest pitching BTV to Guillorme is Paddack or Woods-Richardson. Would you trade either for Guillorme? Would the Mets decline and seek a deal from another team given Paddack’s injury status and Woods-Richardson’s inexperience?

Pagán is expected to make 3.7 million in arbitration. Can the Twins do better in free agency? Last off season three relievers signed in the range of 3.5 to 4 million dollars. David Robertson signed for 3.5 million and with the Cubs. He was a very good reliever last year and was easily moved at the deadline. Archie Bradley signed for 3.75 million with the Angels. He spent most of the year injured and had a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Adam Ottavino signed for 4 million with the Mets and had a great year with 2.06 ERA in 66 appearances. Why would a team trade for him? Wouldn’t it be a better risk to keep your prospect and sign a free agent for the same dollars? The only justification for retaining him is the Twins think he is better value than what they can sign in free agency for a similar contract. Alternatively they need to find another team that wants to pay him this contract and give up a prospect essentially seeing him as more valuable than any free agent they might sign at the same cost. I think they are keeping him. Once they settle in arbitration the contract is now guaranteed. I hope they are right. edit: To be fair Ottavino and Robertson had poor seasons the previous two years and their better than expected LOB% contributed to their numbers last year. The three are projected to have similar ERAs for 2023 ranging from Robertson at 3.80 to Pagán at 3.93. Would you buy high on Robertson (2 years 16M) or Ottavino (2 years 14M) and save the 3.7M on Pagán?

ERA needs a tremendously large sample to be meaningful. There is no way that a lower ERA in the second half is meaningful. It should be ignored and not even written about. The new pitch might be encouraging until you realize that it was rather same story going into the 2022 season. This is the pitcher equivalent of the best shape of my career. It is all about command. It manifests itself in walks and hard hit balls. Both are the inability to locate the ball consistently. It doesn’t matter if you get swings and misses when the ball happens to be located on an edge if you can’t do that consistently. Pagán has one year that looks really good in 2019. His most significant number that year was an LOB% of 95%. That isn’t a skill and not sustainable. Since then those rates have been 67%, 77% and 73%. Through April and May last year when some thought he had some special skill of getting out of jams it was 96%. In June it was 9%. Reality struck.

Miranda is projected for a WRC+ of 122 and Urshela 104. Miranda’s DRS and RAA at 3B were 0 last year and DRS was negative. He is young and can improve defensively. It is reasonable to believe they have a cost controlled top 10 third baseman in Miranda. 2023 is the time to find out.

Are we comparing Urshela to Farmer because they were moved the same day? If we keep Urshela don’t we still need Farmer or Kiner-Falefa or some insurance at SS? Looking at projections Farmer is projected for a WRC+ of 98 and Kiner-Falefa 93. Looking at two years of fielding metrics for Kiner-Falefa and Farmer gives a mixed bag. IKF is positive by DRS, is close to 0 by UZR negative by RAA. He is probably average and Farmer slightly below average. I can’t imagine that would account for a difference in runs greater than their projected bats. I would probably prefer Kiner-Falefa but that would greatly depend on whether I could get him for Legumina. If I have to send the Yankees an off the 40 higher upside prospect for Kiner-Falefa I think I would go with Farmer. Unless Urshela should be seen as a reasonable SS option the decisions about these trade seem pretty independent.

First credit to the previous administration who turned a rule 5 pick in Pressly into a valuable trade piece. The trade cost them the 2019 season. I will assume that he becomes a free agent and returns home to Texas in 2020. That 2019 cost was significant. First, possibly going with the myth that relievers are fungible, the Twins sign Blake Parker. He failed and was released. Later at the deadline they had to give up prospects for Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo. Do they need to do any of that if they keep Pressly for 2019? With Pressly are they the home team in the playoffs? Do they win a playoff game?

If Gray can make it through the early season without trips to the IL I think we will see him go beyond 100 pitches. If he makes two trips to the IL in the first two months like last year it would seem wise to take opportunities to limit his innings. Gray was upset being pulled from an August game against the Royals where dominated the first 6 innings and his pitch count was 92. Joe Ryan later in the season had almost the same performance after 6 innings (94 pitches) against the Royals. He was given a 7th inning and finished at 106 pitches. It was the 7th time Ryan went over 100 pitches, Gray never reached that threshold. I expect Gray will go longer in games in 2023 as long as he is pitching effectively and staying healthy.

I wouldn’t want Rogers in a closer role but I think he can be very effective late inning pitcher strategically used to face more left handed hitters. Take a look at the splits from last year or his career. I think he has the best upside of the three.

Sonny Gray was placed on the IL in April, May and September. I think most teams would have been cautious with his use after those two early season injuries.

Seth I really appreciate articles like this. Thank you.

Earl Battey also won three consecutive gold gloves. He also received MVP votes finishing 7th, 8th and 10th. Is Butch Wynegar the only other Twins catcher to receive MVP votes when he finished 29th as a rookie? Others of note include Roseboro, Engle, Pierzynski and Suzuki who were all star catchers as a Twin. Garver won a silver slugger.

In AAA teams ran more often with a greater success rate than in 2021. There will be more stolen bases and there is reason to be concerned about Jeffers. Catching the same pitching staff Sanchez was much more successful throwing out runners at 28% vs 18% for Jeffers. If Sanchez is at best average then Jeffers has significant work to do to get there.

More likely than a pitcher winning a batting title again. That hasn’t happened in 136 years. Edit: Ohtani could be the Guy Hecker of our time by winning a triple crown, batting title and ERA title in his career. With the DH in both leagues and the likelihood there will eventually be an automated strike zone there will be another catcher that wins the title. Removing framing from the equation will open the door to more offense from the catcher position.

I agree. If they have confidence that one of Julien or Martin or Arraez or Gordon can fill the role they might consider trading Polanco for something they can’t fill on the open market. How about Mariners top catching prospect Harry Ford? His BTV is 11.1. Polanco’s is 15.8. Maybe take a chance on Sam Haggerty (switch hitter with career OPS against lefties of .924 and righties .531) to platoon in outfield or Chris Flexen or both bringing the Mariner side to 15.1. The same question then flips to the Mariners. Why would they give up a top prospect to fill a hole they can fill on the open market?

It is hard to imagine finding a trade for Polanco that results in the 2023 team being better. Team interested in Polanco would not likely be interested in moving one of their key 2023 pieces. I felt the same way last winter about trading Garver is r Rogers. The Garver move in combination with Donaldson trade and Correa did improve the team in 2022. It is possible but unlikely.

More of Gordon’s WAR came as a 2B or CF though he had more plate appearances as a left fielder. He was quite valuable in a utility role and would probably be more valuable as a regular up the middle. In my search I saw Jake Cave led Twin left fielders in WAR slightly ahead of Gordon and Larnach. You are right about the need at the corners.

Minnesota right fielders ranked 18th with 1.5 Fangraphs WAR. Kepler contributed 1.8 of the 1.5. His 1.8 would have ranked 16th by team.

Trades for minor leaguers is a critical part of the pipeline. The top three (by Fangraphs WAR) 26 and under pitchers were all acquired in trade in Alcantara, Cease and Galan. The 4th in the list Webb was drafted by the Giants in 2014 and they waited 7 years for him. Manoah is next on the list and he paid off for the Blue Jays quickly. The Twins never had a chance at him. If trades for minor leaguers are not part of the pipeline I am not sure 5 years is a reasonable amount of time to expect it to be filled by pitchers acquired in the draft. The Guardians returned to first place with a very good starting rotation. Four of those starters were drafted in 2016 and the other in 2015. I think Falvey was with the Guardians when they were drafted. Clase was acquired in trade as was their 6th starter Pilkington. I do agree that Gray is the bar for acquiring starters in free agency. I think they have developed enough near ready pitchers to fill the back end.

I like the stars and young player mix with the additions of Correa and Rodon. I am not sure Leon is the best 1 million dollar catcher but it might be a spot they cycle through multiple inexpensive catchers. I get that Maeda in the pen saves money and he may actually be more valuable at his bullpen salary than his starter salary. Did you consider moving in from Urshela and shift that money to that catcher spot or Maeda as a starter or both? Sticking with Urshela might be the way to go here.

You asked. Easy count. 35 signed pick 539s.

More on Julien and his 2 home run game Jonathan Mayo https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-edouard-julien-homers-twice-in-arizona-fall-league

Rocky Coppinger is the career 539 WAR leader with 1.2. At 538 Lyle Overbay has 16.5. Keith Brown is is the 540 leader with 0.3. That is a lot of players drafted and signed with only one significant career (unless we consider Joe Beimel’s career significant).

Wherever he lands I hope he gets back to pulling the ball more. I think his attempt to make adjustments has led to more ground balls. While he is pulling the ball less he is also hitting it on the ground more often. He needs to go back to pulling the ball and get a greater launch angle.

Seems like a success to me. Fangraphs valued him at 30.4 million for his two years with the Twins and with his 2020 salary prorated they paid him a little less than that for his two years. On top of that they moved him as part of a deal for players that were valuable to the Twins last year. I do give them credit for getting value out of Donaldson and moving him before his value crashed. I was wrong on the Donaldson deal being a disaster. I hope Paddack proves me wrong on the Rogers deal too. They certainly sold high on Rogers. They also appear to have sold high on Berrios.

Julien may not be close to being ready at 2B defensively. His eventual position might be 1B. Does he need a full season in AAA to be ready to play 2B in the majors? I think his glove more than his bat will determine his readiness.