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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Honest question… I get that you don’t believe in the metric. Do you believe framing is a skill or do you believe it is a skill poorly measured by fWAR?
  2. jorgenswest
    Would this be like the Dodgers someone to take enough of Margot’s salary in order to give free agent Kiki Hernandez that salary? Margot contributed -0.9 or -0.2 *WAR last year. Hernandez contributed 1.3 or 0.7. McCann is a free agent. Why wouldn’t another team sign him rather than pay more for Vazquez? They would do it if they saw Vazquez as clearly more valuable. If the Twins have to send money then the savings would be minimal. The Twins need to go with the better player. They didn't last year. *WAR from Fangraphs and baseball reference varies. Is it fair to say that Hernandez was more valuable upon the range of 1 to 2 wins?
  3. jorgenswest
    Yes. The Twins were his 6th organization. He was released by the Cardinals, Tigers and A’s before getting a chance with the Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    The Twins have three recent first places finishes in the central. Out of sight and mind. They signed Carlos Correa to a massive contract. Out of sight and mind. They were the second most affordable place to bring a family of four to a game in 2023. Out of sign and mind. They won a playoff series and the response was disappointing future tickets sales leading into and during that playoff run. Out of sight. Out of mind.
  5. jorgenswest
    Let’s hope for a repeat of the Brian Harper story. The Twins acquired Harper at 28 as a minor league free agent. He was primarily an outfielder at this point in his minor league career catching only 10 games in the minors the previous season. They both had productive minor league bats without the big home run numbers.
  6. jorgenswest
    They were very much in my sight and mind winning the AL Central in 19, 20 and 23. They won a playoff series. According to Moneygeek they have been the second most affordable venue for a family of four to go to a Major League Baseball game.
  7. jorgenswest
    Honestly didn’t appreciate the fix. I wouldn’t put it that way for a guy who has had to fight so hard to return from devastating injuries. He had 1 WAR last year and steamer projects him for 1.4 next year. @Cory Engelhardt is probably right. Is it enough excess for the Tigers?
  8. jorgenswest
    Does Paddack have any excess value?
  9. jorgenswest
    Carew’s seven steals of home in 1969. That season had some memorable moments. Oops someone got this one.
  10. jorgenswest
    I always appreciate your thoughtful responses. Does Willi Castro fit Detroits needs? How does the value of one year of control for Willi Castro compare to the value of a pre-arb Torkelson with an option? Castro is certainly projects to be more valuable next year but Torkelson’s upside over time is valuable.
  11. jorgenswest
    Concur. These add to my desire to do away with rankings. Speed the words writing about the player. I want to know their perceived value at the major leagues with a ceiling and floor. Tell me about their assets and deficits. Tell me about their path to this point. Tell me about how close they are to the majors. Don’t waste words debating whether someone is 8 or 12 or 16. At that point they are all probably of similar overall value but with varying mixes of skills, ceiling, readiness and heart. It is those assets that should be respected not a very fluid position on a ranking system. Think back to last winter and all that was written about SWR. There were some that wrote about his drop in ranking number about Twin prospect. There were others that wrote about his stuff+ and his hard work during the winter to improve his velocity. I want to read the second article. I don’t care that he moved from something like 8 to 19. He earns my respect based on his assets and not a number. edit: back to Kaelen. He is most valuable as a shortstop? What does he need to work on in order to be a starter at that spot in the major leagues?
  12. jorgenswest
    Respect has nothing to do with rankings. Rankings are of little value and are a lazy way to produce written content. Instead of rankings it would be more informative to group players in tiers and describe the range of ceiling/floor outcomes. Write about their attributes that will make them successful baseball players and the work they need to do on their weaknesses. Does their value come with a large range in ceiling/floor outcomes? That is a lot more work on the writer though. It might takes weeks or months to produce that content for a group of prospects. In Culpepper’s case he was given an FV of 40+ by Fangraphs projecting as a bench player/low end regular at the time of the draft. It is the same as the value they gave several Twins last summer including Morris and Soto. All organizations have a bunch of players with a 40 or 40+ FV. It is silly to sort them into ranks and even sillier to give respect to some more than others based on a ranking. .
  13. jorgenswest
    Jenkins will be a parallel with Chourio after another season in the minors. He needs to dominate in AA/AAA next year. Rodriguez is not in the same prospect class as Robert or Chourio. He is more similar to Singleton.
  14. jorgenswest
    The Marlins would be wise to trade him. His injuries last year should be concerning. He was first with left elbow tightness and then the rest of the season by lumbar stress reaction. How confident are you that the return to a starter’s workload will not also bring back one of the injuries?
  15. jorgenswest
    I do think it matters that last year was the first where he was primarily an outfielder with 80 starts across AAA and the majors. I would guess it was the first year the bulk of his time in preparation and training was in the outfield. I think that makes a difference. I would not be signing a decline phase short side platoon veteran with Martin, Keirsey and Helman in the organization with options.
  16. jorgenswest
    Ant free agent they add has to be able to hit right handed pitching. If they can’t hit right handed pitching let’s not lock them into a roster spot for the season.
  17. jorgenswest
    I would go with Keirsey and Martin. Martin’s defense will improve with experience in the outfield. He has the athleticism and experience will lead to better reads particularly with balls in front of him. They are less expensive and can be optioned so the insurance isn’t locked in the bench all year.
  18. jorgenswest
    Low leverage roles in the bullpen don’t exist. Assigning the role of a long man ready to throw 50 plus pitches to a single player isn’t efficient. You can’t save that pitcher in the pen until that opportunity occurs and you don’t want them unavailable the following 3 days when the need might arise again. Instead teams use pitchers in options. It is best to build a one with multiple pitchers capable of throwing 30-50 pitches as well as be counted in higher leverage. Cole Sands was used most often early for multiple innings probably in that shuttle role. His early season effectiveness earned him higher leverage opportunities. He was still capable of throwing multiple innings. His outing with his most pitches thrown was in September. Alcala was used for multiple innings. They needed to send him down for reinforcements after a 48 pitch outing in May. He returned and pitched effectively moving up the bullpen ladder. I think this has to be the hope for Castellano. Start getting some longer outings and pitch effectively. Use the opportunity to climb the bullpen ladder. If he never moves beyond long man he won’t stay on the roster for the duration. There will be a stretch when the bullpen is depleted. He will have pitched to the point where he is unavailable the next three days. The Twins will need to make a move. If Castellano hasn’t moved up the ladder he will be the one to go.
  19. jorgenswest
    Tommy Pham had an 93 OPS+ last year and he will be 37. Grandal allowed 66 of 72 base stealing attempts at 36. Both should be expected to decline further. I don’t buy the premise that either is bad for the clubhouse. Why does the clubhouse even matter if they have declined to the point where they are not productive on the field?
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t think a 22 pitcher and 18 hitter mix is out of the norm. The current 22:16 mix might simply foreshadow that two bats will be added.
  21. jorgenswest
    Shouldn’t savings calculations factor in the replacement cost? They would need to pay the new back up catcher at least the minimum.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Athletic list came out also. The most intriguing name to me is the lefty Webb from Cleveland who is on both. He was a minor league starter. It seems like minor league starters are more successful transitioning to relievers in the majors than minor league relievers. If he can tick up his low 90s velocity in relief they may have a steal. That would be particularly satisfying coming from the Guardians.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think this is the first time any of the three will put on a major league uniform. At least for a moment their journeys should be appreciated and celebrated. I believe the energy that they will bring with their first opportunity in the big leagues will be a benefit to the Twins. I appreciate @Seth Stohs effort in telling us a little about their journey.
  24. jorgenswest
    These three are positive additions to the staff.
  25. jorgenswest
    Martin and Keirsey both played in AA in 2022 and AAA in 2023-2024. In each of those three season Martin had the better wRC+ at their common level though they were both awful in 2022. Martin is 2 years younger. I would not describe Keirsey’s wRC+ of 119 last year as fantastic. It is good. Probably in the second quartile of minor league centerfielders. The top was Cal Stevenson unless you go down to 250 PAs and find Ji Hwan Bae of the Pirates. Stevenson and Keirsey have a lot in common. They both were drafted in 2018 out of the PAC12 and have similar skill sets. Cal has hit much better than DeShawn in the minors but hasn’t hit in the majors yet. Cal has been available on waivers multiple times. The Twins are willing to believe in Keirsey enough to give him a valued 40 man roster spot. I don’t think he has done anything in the minors to merit more belief. There are peers that have performed much better in the minors and yet to be successful in the majors.
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