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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Woods Richardson had two good starts and a third where he allowed three home runs. The Saints also hit 2 home runs that day. Sometimes the ball flies there. Still a bad start but over three starts and 17 innings he struck out 19 and walked 4.
  2. jorgenswest
    Might not just be pitchers. The A’s have 6 pitchers and 5 position players on the IL though three predate the season. Others have been injured and activated.
  3. jorgenswest
    The White Sox have used Mike Vasil in that role. He has one appearance following an opener so that is more of a starter than a long reliever but even without it he averages 2 innings an appearance. The A’s use Mitch Spence in that role though they use an opener quite a bit so he has some appearances where he was a bulk reliever. He still averages less than 2 innings a relief appearance. I don’t think the Twins should try to copy two of the worst teams in baseball by assigning that role to a specific pitcher. A third pitcher to consider is Ben Casparius from the Dodgers. He is averaging nearly two innings a relief appearance. Looking at his game log insome of those he was in more of a starter role where he followed an opener because the Dodgers had some injury trouble. In his 20 other appearances 7 (35%) have gone at least two innings. Funderburk has 3 of 9(33%) of 2 innings and that number would likely be greater if he was effective. The traditional long relief role in baseball is no longer. Bullpens are too heavily used and teams can’t have a pitcher throw 3+ innings and be unavailable for several days. Instead a shuttle to AAA or the DFA route is used to fill that last spot. The Twins used Dobnak, McCaughan and Blewett in the role. Funderburk has been in that role and now they need another arm that can take on those innings. It is Travis Adams turn. It is up to Travis Adams to take this opportunity and move up the bullpen ladder. Cole Sands and Griffin Jax made the most of the opportunity. Funderburk and Alcala haven’t taken advantage. The long reliever role in baseball still exists but it is a revolving door. Travis Adams has just entered the door. Success in that role can result in someone else going out.
  4. jorgenswest
    It might be important to not that Suarez has 13 of his 16 home runs at home. His OPS at home is 1.025 and on the road .580. Last year he hit 18 of his 30 home runs at home. In a three year sample his wRC+ numbers on the road have been 91, 102 and 60 vs. 118, 130 and 174 at home. The last two years were in an Arizona park that suits him well. The team trading for him to expect a below average hitter where all of his contributions will come from home runs which will be less frequent as he won’t be playing in Arizona very often. I would not expect him to be a massive upgrade or someone I want batting in the top 4 of the line up.
  5. jorgenswest
    Will he stick at catcher? Do you think his development as a catcher is a factor in the decision to keep him in CR for now?
  6. jorgenswest
    Wallner just came back from a significant injury. Did we expect he was going to play every day upon return? I don’t think he even played back to back days in the field during rehab which is often part of the progression.
  7. jorgenswest
    Like the look at Martinez. Little risk but no positional flexibility. Suarez is a lot of strike outs and only a 3B/DH. I am not confident he will be better fit the rest of the way than the options they have in house.
  8. jorgenswest
    I still think outfield and possibly 1B will be the best supply for a top of the line up left handed bat. As long as Clemens and Castro are hitting an additional outfielder will not stop them from getting playing time.
  9. jorgenswest
    I looked at last year’s team and they weren’t nearly as clean. I found three over 70% in Jax at 75% followed by Alcala(72%) and then Duran(71%). I wondered about Alcala and his propensity this year to give up crooked numbers. The Twins team numbers pitching overall have virtually the same OPS against whether there are runners on or not. That isn’t true about Alcala over his career and particularly in the last few years. His OPS against with the bases empty is much lower than his OPS against with runners on base. I am not sure if it is meaningful. Could it mean that he has poorer command either shown by walks or hard hit balls when pitching from the stretch?
  10. jorgenswest
    I am willing to give up a lot in prospect capital. Alternatively I would do little. Either go big and try to be a contender or stay with the current roster and hope to get in as a wild card. They have some critical elements for a successful playoff with their pitchers. They need another top of the line up bat. That won’t be cheap.
  11. jorgenswest
    Agree on the left handed bat. A left handed outfield bat works for me too. It is easier to find left handed bats in the outfield (or 1B) since they can throw left handed at those positions. I have no concerns at all if they have three good left handed bats in the outfield in addition to Buxton. It wasn’t to long ago that the starting outfield was Castro, Bader and McCusker followed soon by Kiersey, Clemens and Castro.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t see the need at third base and don’t think I would trade assets for a third baseman. I do see really poor bats thus far from Lewis and Miranda but the first two months of the season is not a great projector of the next two months. Besides Miranda and Lewis they have Castro, Lee, Clemens and Bride. I would frame the need is a bat for the middle of the line up regardless of position. That bat may come from within. I think the two positions that are the thinnest are catcher and outfield. If I prioritized where I would get the bat it would be outfield. Someone like Jaren Duran would really be helpful. There is plenty of space in the line up to use Buxton, Duran, Wallner and Larnach when they are all healthy.
  13. jorgenswest
    Years ago my son had a soccer coach from Tanzania that called a shut out by a goalie a clean sheet. I was thinking about that reading @Riverbrian’s comment in the Jorge Alcala topic. How often do our relievers enter the game do their job? A clean sheet. I will define a clean sheet as no runs scored whether their own or inherited or ghost. I went to baseball reference to count and below is the data. Varland 21/30 Duran 23/28 Jax 20/28 Sands 17/27 Topa 15/21 Alcala 14/20 Coulombe 18/19 Stewart 13/17 Funderburk 4/8 Clean sheets is a measure of opportunity like WPA. If Varland comes in with the bases loaded and no outs his opportunity for a clean sheet is pretty remote. Some sheets are easier to keep clean than others. Some relievers come in to put out fires more often. Some are asked to pitch across multiple innings more often. Some see the top of the line up more often. Some leave a big mess on those sheets more often than others. This reflects how often they have done their job acknowledging that not all jobs are the same. I am not sure what it means other than I appreciate how often the Twins relievers have come in and done their job this year.
  14. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t it be on Sunday? If they pitch Festa today then I think we know it will be Woods Richardson on Sunday. They might also consider pitching Festa on Friday and giving an extra day rest to Paddack and Ryan.
  15. jorgenswest
    Alcala pitched well yesterday. It was his 14th (of 20) appearance where he has given up no runs while pitching at least an inning. I looked to his game log to see if there was any pattern to his appearances where he has given up multiple runs. None of those appearances were on the second end of a back to back or after long layoffs. One was game 2 and the others had one or two days off in between. If you look at the splits his 6+ days rest numbers look bad but that is his bad first appearance of the season in game 2 which is part of 6+ days rest data and shouldn’t be. If everyone is healthy I think he is the 8th man in the pen with Funderburk behind him. That is a tenuous position because when the bullpen gets overburdened they will call up reinforcements and he will be the next guy to go. Until that happens or they add a reliever from outside the organization I don’t think they have anyone that is a better option.
  16. jorgenswest
    I would stick with Alcala over any of the relief options in AAA. He was pretty effective in 2024and I think he has a better shot at matching that going forward than any of the other options.
  17. jorgenswest
    I wondered about adding Del Castillo in my reply but worried about his shoulder injury. Last year runners were already successful on 27 of 29 stolen base attempts before the injury. Do you think he will stick at catcher? I know you really pay attention to catchers . What do you think of Miguel Amaya from the Cubs? Unfortunately he is out with an oblique injury right now.
  18. jorgenswest
    It is early for a trade. I think they need him to continue this stretch through the all star break before teams are desperate enough to overpay. They should be listening though. I think injury is as likely as regression. Is there a catcher with some control that is ready to help in the major leagues this year? I suggested the Cubs Miguel Amaya in @Trov’s thread but he has an injured oblique now. I am not sure Dalton Rushing is as ready but he would be an overpay that I am looking for if the Dodgers are desperate. Are the Red Sox buyers? Are they ready to make room for Roman Anthony? Jaren Duran is having a bit of an off year and has a reasonable team option for next year. He is rumored in trade talks and would fit the Twins line up. I think they need another true lefty and their is space for all three left handed hitting outfielders and Buxton if they are all healthy, I am sure the response is going to be no way they get that return but that is the point. Starting pitching is always a premium. No teams have enough. For a contender to move on from a starting pitcher they really need to be blown away. The Twins should be listening.
  19. jorgenswest
    Cubs need starting pitching. They have a back up catcher in Miguel Amaya that would help this year. Both have provided their teams 0.9 WAR this year. Starting pitching is a premium but control of Amaya makes him a longer term value. Pitching is expensive. My price would be someone ready to help this year on the offensive side that has control beyond this year. I have no interest in prospects and I am not motivated to trade Paddack. I would listen to an offer like Amaya. Too much to pay? Fine. Keep Paddack.
  20. jorgenswest
    While Topa’s ERA is low there are signs of decline from his one outlier successful season of 2023. His sample is small so the ERA estimators are of little value and all over the map. Looking at data that stabilizes early, his average velocity has dropped 2 mph. The sinker his most effective pitch of 2023 is no longer a plus. His strike out rate dropped from 21.9% to 15.5%. His walk rate is up from 6.5% to 8.3%. His swing and miss has dropped from 8.4% to 5.9%. His groundball rate has dropped from 56.7% to 43.5%. It shouldn’t be surprising given his age and injury history. I think it is more likely that we will see the reemergence of the 2024 Alcala than Topa will return to his 2023 form. Most likely neither is returning to their previous peaks but I would give the both a longer run.
  21. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I have done screenshots from video where the broadcast box is different from the game zone box. I am not sure that is the case for yesterday’s game. It is possible that the TV box was different. I also agree that the umpire was excellent and when I am watching in game cast or TV I would go with the umpire unless at least half the ball is in the zone when questioning his call of a ball. Similarly if I question a strike there would need to be a half ball of space between the ball and the strike zone.
  22. jorgenswest
    Good point. Wallner also struggled with errors in trying to get right in AAA last year. His fielding percentage in that stint last year is the same as Julien’s in AAA though playing a position that usually has fewer errors.
  23. jorgenswest
    Maybe the additional experience of the independent leagues makes a better chance of success than an NDFA. They can always replace any of these Independent leagues is signees with an NDFA later in the season. I am glad the Twins have scouts looking at these players.
  24. jorgenswest
    Patience. The same article could have been written about Matt Wallner a year ago at this time. After 146 PAs he has a triple slash of 183/274/349 and then things turned around. Julien is at 85 PAs and Miranda is at 65 PAs. Wallner returned after 297 PAs. Let’s reserve judgment and see what Gardenhire’s staff can do given a long stretch with Miranda and Julien.
  25. jorgenswest
    I didn’t find myself alarmed at his response to playing second base last year. In the minors he moved between shortstop, centerfield and third base. He had 5 innings of second base in 2019. It seemed reasonable to me that he would be uncomfortable being thrown into a position at the major league level that he hasn’t really ever played. That’s the kind of move you do in spring trading or you make sure players have experience in the positions they might be needed while in the minors. If they foresee a fit for him at first base or second base that is a conversation they should have with him as they enter this winter. Playing 2B or 1B at the major league level isn’t trivial. The foot work will be different than he has experienced at both positions. The instincts at first base about going to his right will be very different.
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