jorgenswest

Skubal may be the best pitcher in the game. He isn’t as great as the Twins all right handed line up made him look. That was his second best performance of the year according to game score.

There is a lot of discussion on the Twins not utilizing Bride/Keirsey/Gasper. For the last month I have looked to the week ahead and tried to imagine how I might use 13 players. I do wonder how often does a player need to get at bats in order to stay in rhythm. I really don’t know and i am sure it varies by player. One start a series doesn’t seem like enough particularly when then start will probably be cur short for a pinch hitter. This week is the typical 6 game week. It is a little unusual as it looks to be 6 right handed starters. Priority is winning games at this level and in order to win they need their best hitters playing often and they need defense. I would start Buxton and Correa get all 6 games, The potential of their defense and gloves is too valuable. I would also start Wallner and Larnach 6 games. The Twins don’t have many left handed bats and their bats will be needed. I don’t like the outfield defense when both are out there so Bader and Castro will each get three games. Lewis and Lee are getting 5 starts and Castro will get the other two at second and third. Clemens and France will each get three at first base and be useful off the bench to pinch hit. Catcher is tough because there is usually a lefty where I can put Jeffers at DH. this week is 4 for Jeffers and 2 for Vazquez. The Twins have been extraordinarily healthy at catcher the last three seasons with their 50% play so I may be risking that health but Jeffers gets 4 games. I am not sure how I would get that thirteenth bat regular enough playing time short of injury (in which case they are really the 12th bat). Would they need at least three start for it to be relevancy. Certainly a start a week isn’t going to help with get them consistent at bats. If it were Bride I don’t think it helps to take a game from Castro or Lee or Lewis. They already have the off day and another day of rest and I am hoping Lewis or Lee are hitting so well that I want them 6 times a week. If Keirsey I suppose I could sit Wallner and Larnach each once but their power is an important element. Bader, France and Clemens are already at just three starts. I have this trouble every week. If they are facing lefty or two then I want to get Jeffers in at DH and I want Bader’s glove in the outfield an extra time. I have come to believe that the best use of that 13th spot is that of a specialist. Keirsey fits as a specialist better than Bride. I would like to think a pinch hit specialist would be valuable. It would be great to have someone that can consistently put the ball in play that you can call on with a runner in scoring position. Maybe that is a role for France as his career advances. Maybe Gasper can fit that role. It will require both effort and skill. The effort of spending a lot of time in the cage swinging the bat and the skill of hitting when coming in cold. What happens when Keaschall comes back and everyone is healthy? First that would be awesome. I think I would consider seeing how France does as my pinch hitter. Alternatively Castro in that specialist role would have the additional skill of stepping in nearly anywhere on the field in case of injury. He can pinch hit. He offers defense at several places. He can pinch run.

For this exercise you need to suspend the inclination that the Twins wouldn’t do this deal because they won’t take on any extra salary. My interest is whether this is a deal you would do if the Twins had an owner will to add a little to the budget. It is reported in the Athletic and by Bob Nightengale that the A’s can’t wait to trade Luis Severino. Severino is not happy with the conditions of their home park. His splits show it with an ERA of 3.23 on the road and 6.79 on the road. I should add his FIP is virtually the same home/road (4.31/4.29]. Would you trade Christian Vazquez straight up for Luis Severino and take on the remainder of his three year deal? Again for this exercise assume that you are willing to add to the budget this year. Argue the merits of the deal. Maybe you do it if the A’s add prospect capital to compensate the Twins for taking on the salary obligation. Maybe you would not take on that three year obligation think Severino is done. It sounds like the A’s would be all ears.

I am not an advocate of the all right handed line up. I know that Skubal is very difficult on left handed batters but they at least need to be able to break up his rhythm. Only two trams have tried the all right handed line up against Skubal this year. Both attempts were unsuccessful. I should note the Twins did get a win against Skubal last year with the all right handed line up. That was probably Margot’s best game as a Twin. He had a homer off Skubal and scored two runs. The game was tied when Skubal exited and the Twins scored off the Tigers bullpen to get the win.

Bride either needs to hit well enough to start or travel around the league as an injury replacement. If he hits like he did in 2024 he will get a chance to stick for a while with the next team. His skill set is too narrow for the bench. He can’t be used to pinch run. His defense is good at 3B but nobody carries a defensive sub at 3B. He isn’t a good short side platoon or pinch hit option because he doesn’t crush lefties. His reverse splits would be good to have in a starting 3B. Unless you want to go all in on platoon teams are not going to have a regular role for all 13 position players. I would not advocate platooning three players. We saw how that worked last year when Wallner and Larnach weren’t getting at bats left handed pitching. The player in that last spot or two on the bench really need to be able to help with defense, pinch running or pinch hitting.

If there is an injury concern he should be on the IL. Rest the hip and then get a full rehab in AAA. If there isn’t an injury then Pete Maki has to earn his pay and find a fix.

That is fair but there are risks for both. Paddack risks not getting the best possible deal for himself. By staying he risks another injury and the best offer he can get in return is a minor league deal. I think there is a better chance of an extension for Paddack than most heading to the all star break in their last year. I would not offer an extension. I think the injury risk is too great for Paddack. I would listen to offers but set a bar. For some of the others with expiring contracts I would take the best I can get. I would set a bar for Castro and Coulombe also and keep them if it is not reached.

In your title you called it a miss. You conclude with mistake. Those words carry very different weights. A mistake has a higher threshold. If it is a mistake then there is a lesson to be learned. Perhaps the Twins should never draft a pitcher in the first round since all pitchers come with a huge injury risk. At the time of the draft there was even more worry about the workload of a college starter than there is now. College relievers started getting drafted earlier. Perhaps the lesson learned was to never draft a college reliever in the first round. I don’t know if there is a lesson to be learned here. I still want the Twins to risk drafting pitchers. This is definitely a draft miss. Misses happen. Tyler Jay was drafted with the 6th pick. Only 13 of players form the 6 hole have surpassed 10 career WAR. Only two of the thirteen are pitchers. Rocco Baldelli is 13th on the list with 10.2 WAR in his career.. Draft with the 6th pick and the norm is a miss but maybe a lesson is to be learned. Perhaps pitchers should not ever be drafted so early. Only two have surpassed 10 WAR from that spot. On the other hand if you have a chance to get a Zack Grienke or Zack Wheeler it might be worth the risk of a miss.

I thought Festa was pulled at the right time. Really a good move by Baldelli. Kerry Carpenter had already seen 16 pitches from Festa in his first two at bats. As a result… Kerry Carpenter is removed for a pinch hitter mid game The end up using three hitters in that DH spot and don’t have a pinch hitter for the bottom of the ninth ending the game with the weak hitting Meadows. Coulombe does the job and gets the out to close the 6th. Festa ends the night with a win and a solid outing. How many times have we seen the other manager get Baldelli to remove a good left handed bat mid game only to need him in that spot later in the game? Nice to see it work out the other way.

It would have been better to keep him over Alcala but I don’t know if it was a big mistake. Henriquez has a good ERA. However he has allowed 11 inherited runners to score to go with his 12 earned runs allowed. Danny Coulombe has the same number of inherited runners and only allowed 3 to score. Cole Sands has allowed the most inherited runners to score with the Twins at 7. Henriquez has taken the mound 35 times this year. He has kept the slates clean in 18 of them. In the other 17 he either had a run credited to him or an inherited runner scored leading to a 54% successful relief outing rate allowing no runners to score. Alcala who was among the best at putting up crooked runners had better successful relief outing rate. Henriquez has probably had some bad luck with his inherited runners anllowed and good luck with his ERA. Teams trading for him are going to notice those inherited runners allowed and wonder if he is reliever who can put out a fire.

Thanks Mike. Do the Phillies have a summer update? Is it also reasonable to say a number 14 in the Twins organization would be similar to a number 6 in the Phillies organization?

For comparison here is Fangraphs take as well as their projected future value. Aiden Miller(55) - above average regular Justin Crawford(40+) - bench player/platoon player(+) Eduardo Tait(45) - Low end regular/platoon Mick Abel(40) - Backend starter approximate FIP of 5.00 Moises Chace(50) - Number 4 starter approximate FIP of 4.00 i would recommend ignoring numeric team ranks and looking to future value. A number 4 on one team can be very different from a number 4 on another. I would not be interested in moving Duran or Jax and their remaining control for players that have a future value of platoon/low end or back end starter.

For those interested in reliving the Molitor firing. Here is some original source material from October 2018 Aaron Gleeman speculated about it on his podcast. He was not a Twins reporter at the time working for Baseball Prospectus. He gives valuable insight in his Athletic role which is most often in the role of columnist not reporter. Dan Hayes does most of the reporting. The StarTribune if you are a subscriber Quotes from Falvey at that time

Buxton, Correa and Bader are very good but hard contact is going to win out. I think they are better off with the swing and miss and the higher pitch counts that come with strike outs. Lopez and Ryan might be able to trade a few strikeouts for contact while dialing it up with runners in scoring position in order to stay in the game longer. I think we see that from Lopez. Skubal can do it. If your dialed up form is league average or worse I think it is all gas/no brakes until handing it off to the pen.

Hitters today might be too good. It is hard to avoid barrels and get balls in play for outs. Ober is among the AL leaders in fewest pitches per plate appearance. His strike out rate is way down from last year. He can give them length but all of that contact is susceptible to a big inning. In two recent starts he pitched 7 innings but gave up 5 and 7 runs. Pitchers with great stuff like Skubel can ease back on strike outs but I don’t know if an average starter can stay average while trading strike outs for contact anymore.

You likely know this is a pen often repeated myth but for others Ryan has faced the top of the line up for a third time in every start this year. He has no starts of 18 or fewer batters. He faced the top of the lineup a third time in every 2024 start other than the where he was pulled after 7 batters due to injury. Ober and Lopez have seen the top of the line up virtually every start short of rain or injury. Woods Richardson in 8 of 11 starts. Paddack every start this year.

Couldn’t agree more. Thanks for adding that.

Through July 23, Wallner has a wRC+ of 136 for his career. It was 140 earlier this year. For his career he has a 156 wRC+ against right handed pitching and 53 against left handed pitching. This year left handed pitchers make up 22% of his at bats. Prior to this year it was 18% so his overall number of 136 has some skew in it. Elite left handed batters that are targeted with left handed relievers and never come out of the game like Ohtani and Devers see left handed pitchers in 35% or more of their plate appearances.

It doesn’t make sense to me. I would have moved on after the season or in season if I was convinced the best manager is available now. Oh well. Baseball this evening. I will be listening/watching. Go Twins.

He absolutely should get a look. All corner outfielder should get a look. There are plenty of opportunities to look outside of games and hopefully a lot of reps in practice before playing a position in a game. He throws right handed so he should have had a look at 3B also. I am pretty certain the Mariners and Twins have taken a look. First base takes skill and talent. Many corner outfielders are there because they don’t have the feet and hands to play first base. Some guys have the feet and hands but poor arm or range so they fit at first but not corner outfield. Cedar Rapids has used nine players at first base this year. Wichita has used 8 players. They are giving many players time at 1B. I really doubt they overlooked Gonzalez.

I don’t think are advocating for players like McCusker to come up and take away at bats from Wallner or Larnach against left handed pitching and some against right handed pitching. It sounds like you have lost trust in the organizational staff and their evaluation of minor leaguers. Are you advocating for a complete overhaul of the organization?

Absolutely True. We need them to be right. I don’t think it is possible for an organization to be successful if they commit to giving a consistent and long enough stretch in the majors to every prospect that showed flashes of promise. They absolutely need to rely on the skill of their minor league coordinators and staff in evaluating how each player is ready to help a major league club. The one dimensional players are probably the hardest to give a real shot before options time them out. With Rooker and McCusker they only help with the bat and it is quite likely they are going to really struggle with the same side pitcher. If they don’t help any other way it is really hard to play them. These two have the additional disadvantage of being in the short side of the platoon. It is critical that Falvey builds a highly skilled minor league staff and equally critical that the major league staff trusts their evaluation. I am not sure of their was a failure with Rooker or if options were running out on the Twins before his bat was ready to contribute. Maybe it was a failure on the staff to recognize his bat was ready.

When true prospects with a future value of everyday player come up Baldelli plays them every day. He played Brooks Lee played everyday when he was brought up. Keaschall played every day. When Walker Jenkins arrives he will play regularly. The same will probably be true for Emmanuel Rodriguez. Culpepper will get playing time. Prospects with a future value of platoon or bench player need to show they can thrive in their role. Baldelli should not be playing every player brought up from the minors regularly. The Twins believe in McCusker. They showed it by putting him on the 40 and keeping him there once sent down. It was good for McCusker to come up and see major league pitching. He hopefully realizes that he has work to do and needs to make adjustments. He needs to do the work. If he is making adjustments the results may get worse before they get better but that is part of the work.

Very true. Thanks.

Are rankings reflective of a player’s skill level and potential upside? It is really hard to believe that a player’s skill level and upside is changing that much from one month to the next. If it isn’t changing then these changes in ranking must be due to our complete inability to rank players. If we are so inept in our ability to rank players against each other that each month results in big risers and fallers, then let’s stop ranking them against each other. It really is meaningless anyway when significant shifts are happening monthly. I read Fangraphs by the tiers and not numbers.They have one Twin at 55 (above average regular), three Twins at 50(average everyday player, ten Twins at 45 (low end regular/platoon player) and eighteen Twins at 40 (bench player). To me the context of those tiers is helpful as we get to the trade deadline. Trading a number 6 prospect seems like a lot until you get the context that the future value of this player is low end regular/platoon. Why not group them in tiers instead trying to distinguish among a large group of players projected to have a future value of a bench player? With number rankings, a change from 25 and off the list to 15 seems like a big deal but in reality their future value of bench player really hasn’t changed at all. Going the other way knocks them off the list. Instead of seeing McCusker on the minor league report I will see Eeles. Is the future of one that different than the other? I also believe it will help readers focus on a player’s future value. In considering the value of a trade knowing that we traded or received the 5th and 15th prospect from a team isn’t very helpful. Is that number 5 player that we are trading away expected to be an everyday regular or platoon player? Is that 15th player expected to be a platoon player, bench player or a player that is expected to be a player that moves up and down with AAA?