jorgenswest

I want more for any player under control. I want an overpay. A moderate overpay accoring to BTV would be Garcia and Peraza. That is the kind of deal I would be seeking for Kepler or I would keep that asset.

If the team decides they are all in for next year they are better off trading them rather than go through the struggles of a young starting pitcher, I hope they decide to build a foundation and acknowledge that will decrease their chance of competing next year. I hope they invest innings into Winder, Balazovic, Duran and anyone they might acquire. I hope they have not closed the door on Thorpe or Dobnak. Thorpe has 6 major league starts. Berrios after his first 14 major league starts had an ERA of 8.02. Dobnak sits at 20 major league starts. I see a lot of 25 and under pitchers in this division with a lot of promise. Detroit has Mize, Skubal and Manning. The White Sox have Cease, Crochet and Kopech (Giolito is 26). The Royals have Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Keller. The Indians have McKenzie, Hentzges, Allen and Morgan as well as four 26 year olds including Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Quantrill. The Twins have Ober and it took a series of injuries to get to that point. The outlook for Twins starting pitching in 2023 is pretty dismal. I would be on the path of developing a foundation over competing next year. I would not do any one year deals for free agent pitching to try to compete. I also would not in any way think that seeing these pitches this year will tell us anything about next year. They may really struggle and that struggle may be part of the process. They may have early success but then struggle next year as the league adjusts. I am all in for investing innings in young starters next year no matter how they perform early in their careers.

He may be one of their best but I don’t think he is a great trade asset. He also might be a sell low right now. If teams need to fill a 2021 hole they are really better off getting a rental that is likely to put up better numbers over two months. That rental won’t have the same overall trade value but probably fits their need better. The Yankees with their injuries come to mind. They might be better off finding a short term replacement and then signing a better long term fix this winter in free agency, The better fit might be a smaller market team where his reasonable contract and control would suit them long term. That also describes the Twins though. If someone will give them a good starting pitching prospect or perhaps shortstop prospect they should do the deal. That doesn’t seem likely.

That would be awesome. The only way I see a mid/small market team assembling this staff is if two of those pitchers are under control with at least one of them in early or pre-arb. In free agency those 3 would probably be around 80 million a year and that investment would have no impact on at least 40% of the schedule. It is critical that the Twins acquire and develop those top of the rotation team control starters. That won’t happen for 2022 but maybe trading off assets like Berrios and Rogers this year can set them on that path.

Has Garlick used an option this year? If they option him this year will it be his last? I would rather keep that option either for the possibility of a AAAA shuttle player next year or maybe in trade for a AAAA middle infielder or reliever with an option.

What is the options status of the 5? I am certain Refsnyder is out of options. How about Cave and Garlick? They would have value I’d they have an option for next year. I am pretty certain Astudillo and Rooker will have an option left. Any with options have value as a AAAA player. They also have value in a trade for a different AAAA player that might be a better positional fit.

I will take my chances with Berrios after pitching well through 6 innings with a low pitch count for that point. I think he is more likely to have a clean 7th than Thielbar. I certainly concerned that he went out for the 7th inning so any concern I might have had would have all been in hindsight. It didn’t work out but I’d make the same decision again. As for changing the coaching staff or manager sure if clearly better options become available. I don’t see those clearly better options.

Linder is injured with a grade 2 strain. He will be out for a while. Send Simmons to get a C prospect.

I think selling Maeda today might be selling low. He also has a contract that is under control beyond 2022 and very reasonable even he were to become a bullpen piece. I think Donaldson is a sell high in any option.

First I would pay up to sign Berrios. He may want to test the market no matter the offer. Honestly though while I think it is reasonable to build a starting staff that can be competitive for 2022 (maybe around a 25% chance for wild card) I don’t think it is reasonable to build a staff that can contend in the near future. There are three possibilities outcomes going into next year. The Twins have extended Berrios, Buxton and maybe Rogers and trade off Donaldson and the expiring contracts. The Twins retain but are not able to extend the three going for it in 2022. The Twins sell high and the three are not part of the 2022 roster. The system has several more promising prospects. In the first and last scenario I am looking longer term. I am filling the staff with young controllable pitching and letting them grow knowing failure is a big part of that growth. My wild card chances next year are diminished or in the third path without Berrios probably near 0. The young pitchers would need to have extraordinary starts to their careers and Maeda would have to be the 2020 version both of which are unlikely. In the second version they really need to be all in for 2022. They need to sign vets on one one year contract and hope they all retain their performance. It could have been this year had Happ, Pineda, Colome, Shoemaker and Simmons hit their top quartile of projections rather than their bottom quartiles. I would also look to trade off prospect capital. The biggest bang for 2022 is trading for players who have one year left on their contracts. If I want the best roster for 2022 I need to focus on those impact players. That all I strategy might give the Twins enough to be a real contender. It will also leave them very barren beyond 2022. My preference is option 1 and then 3 though I know it isn’t reasonable to expect a contending team in 2022 with either. I just think the pitching is too far away and can’t be fixed both short and long term.

Rooker is similar to Tyler Austin and many other right handed bats that don’t help on defense. Austin has 583 career major league at bats with 33 home runs and a batting average of .219. That seems a reasonable comp for Rooker. Austin has a career OPS against left handed pitching of .884. Unfortunately it is the short side of the platoon. In most games that a lefty starts Rooker would see that pitcher only twice and see a right handed pitcher the remaining at bats. Like Austin he would end up facing right handed pitching more than left handed pitching over the course of a season. Rooker does have one advantage over Austin. There is an extra spot on the roster that might give him more opportunity.

I get that but I am selling today and the comp pick exists today. I am valuing Berrios and the pick as make this trade. On the player’s side the concern is losing a pick as a result of signing a free agent. The concern hasn’t been the compensation. If there is a change I think it will removing/changing the penalty of losing a pick to the signing team. I think the compensation part will remain.

I think they were all in last year. At least as all in a a mid to small market team can be, They pushed the troll to new heights by signing Donaldson. They traded one of their best prospects for immediate starting pitching help in Maeda. Instead of going with the cheaper Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer they signed the most certain floors in Pineda, Hill and Bailey. This year is a failure but the tenure has been a success. They won the division the last two seasons and pushed for one more with the signings of several veterans. Now they have an old pitching staff. Unfortunately those veteran free agent signings haven’t performed near their level of previous performance. It was a quick but fun ride. 2019 was a blast. They key young players of 2017 are becoming free agents by 2023. Their pitching under control for 2023 may be the worst in the AL and certainly the central. I would close this window and start building a new one.

I hope it is sky high. They won’t get their initial asking price but they need to start sky high. They also need to view it as trading Berrios and a comp pick they would receive when he becomes a free agent. They are essentially offering Berrios and a Noah Miller type or Berrios and an 18 year Berrios (the Twins comp pick for Cuddyer).

The time to trade Berrios is now. He has much more value to a contending team than he has to the Twins the remainder of 2021. The potential for two playoffs with him than one adds value. In the off season there will be a supply of free agent pitchers lessening the demand. If he gets a significant injury in the last two months his value will crater. Pay up big and sign him or trade him. Do it this month,

I am not as concerned about Valimont’s walks as long as his K rate is also high. Almost 50% of the plate appearances against him result in a strikeout or walk. That only happens when batters have tremendous difficulty putting the ball in play. Instead of ending in a PA by weak contact they are more swings a,nd misses and that leads to long counts and an increase in both walks and strikeouts. Kevin Slowey was a top 100 prospect and walked very few in the minors. He sat at 25-30% strikeout plus walk rate in the minors. That 70-75% contact rate was a lot of weak contact in the minors but too much of it became hard contact in the majors. Without seeing them pitch and just looking at traditional data I am more encouraged by Valimont’s rate mix then a guy like Slowey.

I am inferring you believe a manager should intervene at this point and take his attention away from the game. I want a manager who stays in the game. Part of being in the game is using the data to make decisions. There are other threads about how much a manager should be relying on that data for decision making.

Any trade for Berrios needs to be Dominguez plus a guy like Garcia. BTV lists that trade as a moderate overpay on the Yankees part but any Berrios deal needs to be an overpay. The Twins might be better off finding a pitching prospect to headline any deal for Berrios. The Yankees might not be the best fit here.

I think a coach is the right person. Managers need to keep their head in the game and not what happened earlier. Rocco can address it in private if necessary after the game. Hopefully he will keep it private. This is part of what the Twins bought with Donaldson. Both he and Arraez are intense in the moment.

He can join all star Taylor Rogers as 11th round picks making an impact for the Twins.

I agree with the moving up. I also acknowledge that it can take a lot of starts and innings of overall struggle for a pitcher to reach their potential. It is hard for a team expecting to content to devote those innings. Instead they often turn to veterans. In most cases the floor for those veterans is a better outcome. This year was the exception. It can lead to a cycle of never building that foundation though as every year you need to find those veterans. How many here want to trade for a 23 year old in AA and wait four or five years? That was the Indians and Kluber. The acquired him in 2009. He really struggled in 2011 and 2012. He wasn’t anything special in 2013 but he was giving them what the Twins might have hoped from a Happ or Hill. He was an ace the next 5 years. How many here would trade for a good 22 year old prospect and then wait out a 5.29 ERA spread out over 5 years from ages 22 to 26? That was the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. He bounced back and forth to the majors from 2009 to 2013 with little success. In 2014 most of his appearances were from the bullpen. He was a valuable member of the rotation the next 5 years. Would we keep investing starts in a top prospect who begins their career 18-24 with a 4.50 ERA (64 starts over 4 years) and leads the league in walks in their fourth year? The Indians traded for Bauer in 2013 and waited 5 years and 729 innings before getting his first season with an ERA under 4. Are we ready to invest 700+ innings into a pitcher? The Rays didn’t have to wait that long for Glasnow. They picked up what appeared to be a failed prospect from the Pirates who were unwilling to wait after three years and 91 walks in 141 innings. How excited are we going to be acquiring a pitcher whose ERA as a starter was over 7 the previous two seasons? How long should we expect to wait after this year before getting payoff from the prospects in the trade? Has it already been too long a wait from the 2018 trades? I am willing to wait it out to build that foundation. I want those 4th and 5th spots to go to their prospects. Last year I advocated for struggling with Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak rather than Hill and Bailey. I would have continued to struggle with Romero a few years back. I would plan to give starts to young pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots next year and I would expect them to struggle and risking the possibility of the playoffs. I would expect struggle in 2023 also. I just don’t see any other way for a mid to small market team to build the foundation of a pitching staff.

Many of you must be reading a different report than I saw. I saw no reports of final offers, gauntlets, ultimatums or certain trades. I read that they are negotiating with him and made an offer in excess of 70 million. It is good news to me that they are negotiating. It is also good news to me that the Twins will consider trading him if Buxton chooses to bet on himself having a big healthy year next year leading to a massive contract.

I think the Braves trade for Pederson also demonstrates why the demand for Cruz is limited and the return minimal. The Braves have a need after losing Acura for a short term outfield replacement. They gather their list of possibilities they should target and Cruz isn’t on that list.

I wonder if the 40 man move to add Barnes was official or it is paperwork teams do just prior to games.

You have me intrigued. I wondered if many recent .720 OPS seasons with a .300 batting average existed. My first thought was Ben Revere. He hit .306 in 2015 with a .719 OPS. In 2015 he was traded from the Phillies to the Blue Jays but most of the data is from his time with the Phillies. The Phillies happen to have a .229 hitter with a .720 OPS that year in Ryan Howard. I am not sure Howard fits your model because he gets there mostly from power. I am guessing that any of these low average hitters are getting to .720 with power. I don’t think the player who is low average and little power would get walks very often. Pitchers would just pound the strike zone. Who contributed more to wins? Howard ended with a WPA of -0.1. Revere had a WPA of 0.7. At least in this one instance it appears the player who puts the ball in play more often contributed more to wins. I wonder if anyone has studied this in detail.