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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would have hoped they might get a little more for Graterol but maybe Maeda is better than I perceive. I am concerned about the transition to the AL but ultimately the Twins needed to give up a top prospect for starting pitching and landed on this deal. I certainly advocated for making a deal. I can’t argue now that they should have done better. It is more likely that better never comes and no deal is ever made.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think you are right. Though 5/60 seems like a reasonable progression in the Nola and Martinez contracts the Twins will need to go higher. There is a number that Berrios will accept to get some security in case of injury and the Twins can get two more years. The 30 million in arb seems right. I had the Twins starting with another 30 but maybe it will take 40 or 45.
  3. jorgenswest
    I would offer 5/60 and be willing to go more. They can get this done. There is a number that will get this done. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. By the time he is a free agent they might have to pay 50 million for those last two years and the qualifying offer might be over 20 in three years. Pay up now.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would prefer that the Twins devote the time to the young pitchers. One of Chacin or Bailey helps. Two likely mediocre veteran pitchers takes away opportunity in both spring and during the regular season from Thorpe, Dobnak and Smeltzer. I would much rather invest those backend starts on two of that trio and I don’t trust that Chacin or Bailey will be released if they are pitching at a mediocre level. Last year Thorpe, Dobnak and Smeltzer started 13 games and the Twins went 8-5. Two of Dobnak’s were an opener but Thorpe or Smeltzer were the primary those two games where they went 1-1. Why not devote 14-16 starts to this trio before Pineda returns? Is there an opt out date on this deal? If that opt out date is early in the season then I really don’t like the deal. The Twins will be too motivated to roster him over a younger pitcher. Even if he is simply insurance against losing a pitcher in the spring that insurance comes at the cost of giving him valuable spring innings where he is essentially auditioning for other teams. If the opt out date is May 15 or later then the insurance makes sense. Keep him the minors as long as everyone is healthy and give a shot to the young pitchers.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think the downside is giving him 8-10 starts to find out he is mediocre and not giving that opportunity to Thorpe or Dobnak. It is the same downside with Bailey. We needed one of those guys but we I don’t think they need two. Would Walker have been a better choice? Maybe. He had xFIP- of 100 his last two healthy seasons of pitching. I guess the hope would be a complete recovery where he returns to the league average pitcher he was in 16-17.
  6. jorgenswest
    The key is improvement from Arraez and Polanco. By every measure Arraez was a poor 2B in a partial season. He now has the job full time. He needs to be a lot better or there are going to many extended innings and shorter starts. I am hoping Polanco’s leg trouble caused his drop from below average to poor last year and he can approach below average with healthier legs. Donaldson may help here a little but it is his weaker arm that keeps him from playing deep cutting down his range. The weak arm compounded with the leg issue that led to too many balls in play turning into base runners. Last year the Twins converted 69% of balls in play into outs. That was new league bottom. At the top the Astros and Dodgers were at 73%. I don’t care how players do individually in the metrics but as a team they must do a much better job of converting balls in play into outs. Better coverage from Arraez and Polanco will be needed to make that happen.
  7. jorgenswest
    I like the off-season plan to give them the opportunity over an older back end option. It really seems ideal. Two pitchers get 8 or so starts to win one spot when it narrows to one opportunity of likely 8 more starts. By the all star break they would have around 25 starts from their hope for the near future. Even if they all struggle I think this part of the plan is solid and deserves a solid grade. In that case by the all star break They should have a good indication on whether or not to pursue a Robbie Ray rental type at the deadline.
  8. jorgenswest
    Moderators you may need to delete as I am taking this from prospects and Donaldson to the equal playing time discussion but I can't start a new discussion in this forum On the question... Eddie is a better hitter. Using OPS in one season to project the next season doesn't correlate nearly as high as some other measures. One in particular is BP's DRC+. In this measure Cave and Rosario are not in the same realm. Eddie was 109 (112 last year) and Cave 89 (93 last year). The Twins need to plan in rest but in every match up the staff (on field and analytic) must answer the question who is more likely to be successful today. I think in most match ups the answer is going to be Rosario over Cave.
  9. jorgenswest
    Alcantara career strike out major league rate is 18.7%. Nick Blackburn 10.9%. Alcantara at 23 started 32 games in the majors. Blackburn at 23 was in the minors (mostly hi A) with a 14% strike out rate. Alcantara's average major league fastball 95.7 vs Blackburn 90.6. Swing and miss rate 11.0% to 5.3%. It is Alcantara's age, stuff and the fact that he faced higher levels of competition at a young age that foreshadows upside in his future. Alcantara is a valuable asset and it will take a high level prospect. I don't think it takes both Larnach and Duran to win the deal. I think the Twins can get a good pitcher in return for Larnach whether it is an high upside guy with control like Alcantara or a guy for this year like Robbie Ray.
  10. jorgenswest
    Plouffe seems like a good comp. He was a valuable player for 4 years posting DRC+ numbers of 107, 102, 111, 107. He was below average with the glove at the start of those 4 years but became an average or better 3B. Rosario has similar DRC+ numbers. He is a valuable player and I expect he will be this season again. Like Plouffe he has little space to decline given his arb status.
  11. jorgenswest
    Questions that come to mind... Will he be able to really work on his change up as a reliever in the majors? Will he get consistent work? What went wrong with the Romero shift to the pen? Anything to learn there? Who are we developing for the 2021 rotation? Will his limited innings be more valuable in relief than starting? I might have more confidence had Romero been a success.
  12. jorgenswest
    My favorite Astudillo moment last year was his pinch hit against Boston. My take here is probably better than going by my memory. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-11646-baldelli-and-line-ups-which-twin-has-faced-the-best-pitching/ I don’t know how much Astudillo helps but if you have runners in scoring position and need a ball in play against an extreme strike out pitcher he might not be a bad option.
  13. jorgenswest
    Have the Twins signed a proportionally greater number of free agents also? Why 34? Why not 36 or 32? Would it look the same?
  14. jorgenswest
    Free agents are old. If they are high caliber you are either signing them old or giving them a contract well into their 30s. Want a younger team less expensive team? Don’t sign free agents.
  15. jorgenswest
    Poor defense has side effects that are not seen in the individual runs saved calculations. More balls in play leads to longer more stressful innings, shorter starts and a greater burden on the pen. Poorer pitching results. As a team the Twins turned 69% of balls in play into outs ranking 25th. The Astros and Dodgers were at 73% followed by the A’s, Marlins and Cardinals. The Twins were in the depths with the Royals, Red Sox and Rangers and slightly better than the a Pirates and Tigers. They need to do better this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    It is possible they have simply taken a different road and spent their budget with Donaldson. They may not be on the road to pitching any longer. The realistic options may have been Ryu, Donaldson or hold onto the money in hopes of making a deal later. They may not be kicking the can any longer.
  17. jorgenswest
    Would you have pursued Ryu over Donaldson and addressed pitching with free agency this winter?
  18. jorgenswest
    Hill is the midseason acquisition and if he returns and pitches they are around 150 million. If he doesn’t return I think they try to add a pitcher with those dollars. They had an opportunity to add pitching by giving Ryu the Donaldson money and then they could have added a bat at 1B for the Hill or Bailey commitment. They went with Donaldson and I think I agree. Short of trading significant prospect capital for a young pitcher on smaller salary I think they have chosen to wait.
  19. jorgenswest
    You might want to watch his 2 August starts against the Yankees or his September start against the Astros. Can you find a starter that was more effective against the Yankees last year? I am certain no one wearing a Twin uniform was more effective or even close to as effective.
  20. jorgenswest
    No. They do not need to add pitching. If they do it has to be at the top and pushing Bailey to the pen. They need to develop pitching and at some point that means devoting major league starts to promising pitchers who have shown sustained success at the upper levels of minors. Thorpe needs the opportunity. Graterol needs a spot if he has a good start at AAA. Smeltzer and Dobnak both have a chance to take another step this year. I hope that group combines for at least 40 starts. The Twins needs one to emerge. They can’t emerge or grow if they are in the pen or on the shuttle. No they don’t need to add more though I do acknowledge every team would say yes they need to add a front starter. If that is the bar there is nothing to discuss.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Twins are a lot better off with Donaldson in the their clubhouse than the visitor’s clubhouse. One excerpt from Rosenthal and the Athletic with a quote from Freeman. In an early Donaldson thread I posted links to other articles about Donaldson and the clubhouse. They are similar. I would want this guy in my clubhouse.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think they could have addressed pitching by offering Ryu this contract. When the top four signed with their preferred destinations the Twins chose pursuing Donaldson over Ryu. I can’t argue with the decision though I may have in some thread earlier. I was certain Donaldson would go to Atlanta and the Twins would be left with nothing. Ryu seemed the one sure player who would sign for the best offer. Good work front office. They read the Braves and Nationals correctly and must have stood close to their original offer.
  23. jorgenswest
    The risk of injury goes both ways. He would have more motivation to make a deal now than he would one year away from free agency. Signing any pitcher long term carries a risk of injury. I would bet on Berrios because of his age and his work ethic. He keeps himself in great physical condition. When he gets that injury I am confident that he give every effort to getting back on the field and get there quicker. I would pay the starting pitcher premium to lock up two more years of control. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. Pay up.
  24. jorgenswest
    Of course they are able to sign a Berrios to an extension. There exists a number that will win the deal. It doesn’t need to be team friendly. Are they willing to pay up?
  25. jorgenswest
    Do you worry about Berrios’ attitude in particular or the attitude of any young player in general as it relates to getting an extension? It seems to me that a Berrios takes great pride in his performance and his conditioning and preparation seem to show it. I am not concerned that an extension would foster an attitude where he would be less motivate to be a top pitcher. The risk in a Berrios extension is the same in signing any pitcher to a long term deal. Injury. Even in the case of injury I think his work habits and conditioning will give him a better chance of a full and quicker recovery.
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