jorgenswest

The Twins should be confident that the comp pick will remain and should have that in mind as they consider trading Berrios or Buxton. Neither side will have strong motivation to drop it. The union doesn’t like the penalty of losing a pick. That may be eliminated. I expect the comp pick to remain. Megill is 25 with a sample of 64 innings this years across three levels. His major league contribution is 24 innings. I don’t think there are any stats other than maybe some some pitch level that should be considered in projecting his future. Countless mediocre players have put up a really good stretch of innings. Looking at his 5 starts he has some pretty high pitch counts for some shorts starts. Does he have a put away pitch to close out at bats? Does he have enough to pitch to the top of a line up a third time? Megill was drafted as a reliever out of college. He ranked the number 21 Met prospect. He is off to a very solid start at 25. The Mets have reason to be encouraged. Isn’t Tyler Duffey’s path from college reliever to very encouraging results across 9 starts in 2015 pretty similar?

I want a pitcher to headline any deal for Berrios and the Mets don’t have anyone that is see as that headliner. I think they can get deals similar to those suggested by Abriano if the Twins happen to be sellers in a year.

If the team decides they are all in for next year they are better off trading them rather than go through the struggles of a young starting pitcher, I hope they decide to build a foundation and acknowledge that will decrease their chance of competing next year. I hope they invest innings into Winder, Balazovic, Duran and anyone they might acquire. I hope they have not closed the door on Thorpe or Dobnak. Thorpe has 6 major league starts. Berrios after his first 14 major league starts had an ERA of 8.02. Dobnak sits at 20 major league starts. I see a lot of 25 and under pitchers in this division with a lot of promise. Detroit has Mize, Skubal and Manning. The White Sox have Cease, Crochet and Kopech (Giolito is 26). The Royals have Singer, Bubic, Lynch and Keller. The Indians have McKenzie, Hentzges, Allen and Morgan as well as four 26 year olds including Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Quantrill. The Twins have Ober and it took a series of injuries to get to that point. The outlook for Twins starting pitching in 2023 is pretty dismal. I would be on the path of developing a foundation over competing next year. I would not do any one year deals for free agent pitching to try to compete. I also would not in any way think that seeing these pitches this year will tell us anything about next year. They may really struggle and that struggle may be part of the process. They may have early success but then struggle next year as the league adjusts. I am all in for investing innings in young starters next year no matter how they perform early in their careers.

He may be one of their best but I don’t think he is a great trade asset. He also might be a sell low right now. If teams need to fill a 2021 hole they are really better off getting a rental that is likely to put up better numbers over two months. That rental won’t have the same overall trade value but probably fits their need better. The Yankees with their injuries come to mind. They might be better off finding a short term replacement and then signing a better long term fix this winter in free agency, The better fit might be a smaller market team where his reasonable contract and control would suit them long term. That also describes the Twins though. If someone will give them a good starting pitching prospect or perhaps shortstop prospect they should do the deal. That doesn’t seem likely.

That would be awesome. The only way I see a mid/small market team assembling this staff is if two of those pitchers are under control with at least one of them in early or pre-arb. In free agency those 3 would probably be around 80 million a year and that investment would have no impact on at least 40% of the schedule. It is critical that the Twins acquire and develop those top of the rotation team control starters. That won’t happen for 2022 but maybe trading off assets like Berrios and Rogers this year can set them on that path.

Has Garlick used an option this year? If they option him this year will it be his last? I would rather keep that option either for the possibility of a AAAA shuttle player next year or maybe in trade for a AAAA middle infielder or reliever with an option.

What is the options status of the 5? I am certain Refsnyder is out of options. How about Cave and Garlick? They would have value I’d they have an option for next year. I am pretty certain Astudillo and Rooker will have an option left. Any with options have value as a AAAA player. They also have value in a trade for a different AAAA player that might be a better positional fit.

Linder is injured with a grade 2 strain. He will be out for a while. Send Simmons to get a C prospect.

The time to trade Berrios is now. He has much more value to a contending team than he has to the Twins the remainder of 2021. The potential for two playoffs with him than one adds value. In the off season there will be a supply of free agent pitchers lessening the demand. If he gets a significant injury in the last two months his value will crater. Pay up big and sign him or trade him. Do it this month,

I am not as concerned about Valimont’s walks as long as his K rate is also high. Almost 50% of the plate appearances against him result in a strikeout or walk. That only happens when batters have tremendous difficulty putting the ball in play. Instead of ending in a PA by weak contact they are more swings a,nd misses and that leads to long counts and an increase in both walks and strikeouts. Kevin Slowey was a top 100 prospect and walked very few in the minors. He sat at 25-30% strikeout plus walk rate in the minors. That 70-75% contact rate was a lot of weak contact in the minors but too much of it became hard contact in the majors. Without seeing them pitch and just looking at traditional data I am more encouraged by Valimont’s rate mix then a guy like Slowey.

I am inferring you believe a manager should intervene at this point and take his attention away from the game. I want a manager who stays in the game. Part of being in the game is using the data to make decisions. There are other threads about how much a manager should be relying on that data for decision making.

Any trade for Berrios needs to be Dominguez plus a guy like Garcia. BTV lists that trade as a moderate overpay on the Yankees part but any Berrios deal needs to be an overpay. The Twins might be better off finding a pitching prospect to headline any deal for Berrios. The Yankees might not be the best fit here.

I think a coach is the right person. Managers need to keep their head in the game and not what happened earlier. Rocco can address it in private if necessary after the game. Hopefully he will keep it private. This is part of what the Twins bought with Donaldson. Both he and Arraez are intense in the moment.

He can join all star Taylor Rogers as 11th round picks making an impact for the Twins.

I agree with the moving up. I also acknowledge that it can take a lot of starts and innings of overall struggle for a pitcher to reach their potential. It is hard for a team expecting to content to devote those innings. Instead they often turn to veterans. In most cases the floor for those veterans is a better outcome. This year was the exception. It can lead to a cycle of never building that foundation though as every year you need to find those veterans. How many here want to trade for a 23 year old in AA and wait four or five years? That was the Indians and Kluber. The acquired him in 2009. He really struggled in 2011 and 2012. He wasn’t anything special in 2013 but he was giving them what the Twins might have hoped from a Happ or Hill. He was an ace the next 5 years. How many here would trade for a good 22 year old prospect and then wait out a 5.29 ERA spread out over 5 years from ages 22 to 26? That was the Indians and Carlos Carrasco. He bounced back and forth to the majors from 2009 to 2013 with little success. In 2014 most of his appearances were from the bullpen. He was a valuable member of the rotation the next 5 years. Would we keep investing starts in a top prospect who begins their career 18-24 with a 4.50 ERA (64 starts over 4 years) and leads the league in walks in their fourth year? The Indians traded for Bauer in 2013 and waited 5 years and 729 innings before getting his first season with an ERA under 4. Are we ready to invest 700+ innings into a pitcher? The Rays didn’t have to wait that long for Glasnow. They picked up what appeared to be a failed prospect from the Pirates who were unwilling to wait after three years and 91 walks in 141 innings. How excited are we going to be acquiring a pitcher whose ERA as a starter was over 7 the previous two seasons? How long should we expect to wait after this year before getting payoff from the prospects in the trade? Has it already been too long a wait from the 2018 trades? I am willing to wait it out to build that foundation. I want those 4th and 5th spots to go to their prospects. Last year I advocated for struggling with Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak rather than Hill and Bailey. I would have continued to struggle with Romero a few years back. I would plan to give starts to young pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots next year and I would expect them to struggle and risking the possibility of the playoffs. I would expect struggle in 2023 also. I just don’t see any other way for a mid to small market team to build the foundation of a pitching staff.

I think the Braves trade for Pederson also demonstrates why the demand for Cruz is limited and the return minimal. The Braves have a need after losing Acura for a short term outfield replacement. They gather their list of possibilities they should target and Cruz isn’t on that list.

Luzardo should be targeted. It is the kind of return they should seek for Rogers. BTV won’t like it but the demand for really good late inning left handed relief help will be greater than the supply. Luzardo and Trenien were traded from Washington to Oakland a few years ago for Sean Doolittle. BR shows Doolittle as the most similar pitcher to Rogers through age 30. They might combine Cruz with Garver and cash to try to get Luzardo. The Twins need to find someone that sees Cruz as the difference maker. In 1987 the Twins added Don Baylor. In games 6 and 7 of the World Series he was on base in 6 of 8 plate appearances with a home run. Cruz can have that kind of impact in the dugout and at the plate.

Keeping Robles would be a mistake. His xFIP has been poor the entire year and the ERA is moving towards his xFIP. Colome has been better. Duffy has been better. Alcala has been better. In the last 5 years he has had one year where his xFIP was below league average and one where his walk rate was under 10%. I can’t imagine any projection for 2022 would change that path.

Toronto has the prospect capital to win the trade for Berrios. It should take both Pearson and Richardson-Woods and a lottery ticket pick to win a deal for Berrios. Any deal for Berrios needs to be an overpay. The same is true for Rogers where they should set the bar at one of those starting pitchers. BTV may reject these deals but only way the Twins should make this deal is if it is a clear win.

As I think about any move I think about the lens of either 2022 or 2023 and beyond. I acknowledge that the money will help address a starting pitcher and/or shortstop for 2022. I also foresee a gutted bullpen. It is hard to view any trade of Rogers through the lens of truly contending in 2022. Rogers is one of their best trade assets. He is also the only late inning arm under control they can count on next year. I would set the bar high in a trade and only move him for a young starting pitching prospect with the lens on 2023 and beyond. I need to be blown away and BTV will see assess it as “not accepted” as it does in a trade for a guy like Nick Abel. Sustained success depends on young controllable starting pitching. They must use their best assets to acquire that pitching.

Could the down sized minor leagues dropping lower level leagues like the Appalachian League add to what is driving teams to focus on college? Look at the paths of a couple of high school guys drafted in 2016. Tyler Benninghoff(11th round) and Kidany Salva(17th round) we’re still playing with Elizabethton in 2019. That path just doesn’t exist any more. These players will need to go to college, JC or the independent leagues to develop their game. The draft in 2016 was relatively high school heavy for the Twins. It took all of those earlier high selections some time to get to Cedar Rapids. Only Rortvedt(2nd) made it in 2017. Kirilloff(1st), Miranda(2nd), Baddoo(2nd) and Balazovic(5th) arrived at low A in 2018. All but Balazovic played with Elizabethton first. This is the path for high school prospects drafted early in the draft. Where is the path for the players drafted later?

How extreme were the 2019 and 2020 staffs?

No. That isn't what I said.

The best bet on a take that proves to be right is to be critical of the picks. Players picked 26th and 36th rarely have significant major league careers. The path to the majors is too long and can easily be derailed by injury. The best bet is to take the failed pick side. I haven’t watched either of these guys play but have these two thoughts. It might be the right time to go with the raw arm talent over any Rapsado data. Spider tack isn’t going to help anyone hit 102. There is a lot of flexibility in picking a switch hitting high school shortstop. There are so many paths from there to develop into a role on a major league team.

Pick 26 trivia… The best high school pitcher drafted 26th is Jeremy Bonderman. He comes up in Moneyball with Billy Beane throwing a chair at the wall in disgust after Grady Fusin used their first pick to draft a high school pitcher. They did get some value for him as he was part of a package that brought back Ted Lilly in a deadline deal. Bonderman was drafted in 2001 and arrived at the majors in 2003. He finished with 4.9 career WAR which is the 5th most for players drafted 26th. Alan Trammell is a Hall of Famer drafted in this spot. He arrived at the majors quickly after being drafted. The two other players with lengthy major league careers are Dave Henderson and Dan Plesac. The Twins selected Dan Serafini as a high school pitcher in this spot. He was drafted in 1992 and it took 5 years before he arrived in a 1997 as a September call up. Players drafted in this spot can also be an asset in trade. Daniel Schlereth was part of the three team Curtis Granderson deal. Bryan Morris was part of a deal for Manny Ramirez. Very few players drafted 26th have had a significant major league career. The Twins drafted an arm talent with elite velocity. It is on them develop that talent into an asset.