jorgenswest

I would like to think that Rosario is a valuable trade asset but he just doesn’t have excess value beyond his contract with a boost coming next year in arbitration. He is likely more valuable this year than next. He could be a candidate for a deal to a contender similar to Lawton for Reed but those trade partners are hard to find.

Do the Twins make this move if they think Donaldson will be back in any reasonable time frame?

I am with Chief here. They needed bullpen help last year and should have had Pressly for the year. Maybe with Pressly they get home field advantage and never see the Yankees in the playoffs. The Twins should have had the foresight in 2018 to see the bullpen need and see that the team was ready to contend for 2019.

I need to hit you with the 10 games because data in a sample too small should not be used to make decisions about the future. it doesn’t matter that the season is shorter. The length of the season doesn’t change the size needed for a reliable sample. One piece does stand out to me is the xBA. His xBA IN 2019 was .292 and is .271 for 2020. Does that seem like a drastic change? Were his numbers last year skewed by a much higher than expected BABIP with this year the reverse is happening? Will he return to form? I don’t think it is certain that he ever abandoned his form. He puts a lot of balls in play and his results are always going to be BABIP driven and subject to significant variance due to sample.

Thanks for the post. It does have me thinking about it. I think there are two key factors here that somehow need to be measured. 1) The number of years of control. The value of that player shouldn’t be calculated beyond those years. 2) The salary cost of that control. A 2 WAR player on a pre-ARB contract is a valuable asset for a team. That same 2 WAR player in year two or three of arbitration and earning 10 times the pre ARB salary is a marginal asset. One great deal was sending Liriano and his two months of control to the White Sox and getting all of Escobar’s control at a very low cost in his pre arb and arb seasons.

I don’t think they should box themselves into 8 of their pitcher unavailable for any given game. Hill and Berrios are pretty efficient they might get to the 6th inning right from the beginning. If they get into the 6th inning it should be on the bullpen. Bailey and Maeda are also reasonably efficient. All four were under 4 pitches per plate appearance with Berrios the lowest at 3.72. Odorizzi is not nearly as efficient. He might need to be paired with someone (it doesn’t have to be the same pitcher every time) to bridge the gap to the bullpen early in the season. This is not a knock on Odorizzi. He simply throws more pitches per plate appearance because he doesn’t ever give in. He had many fewer 1 pitch at bats because he attacks with every pitch. The Twins need to be ready to take the 4 solid innings each time he goes out.

I don’t see it. Arraez was young for his level and putting up OBPs much higher than Wiel in the minors. Wiel’s minor league slash of 263/340/459 would make him a marginal 1B if he could somehow match his minor league production in the majors.

I don’t think we know the names of the prospects who will be the most hurt. It will be the player who missed an opportunity to take a major step forward. Where is Randy Dobnak if this were last year? Going into last season he was an undrafted 24 year old with no experience above low A. His 2018 season there was an uninspiring 129 innings with only 84 strike outs as a player old for the league. The only way he gets noticed is by playing ball and dominating. Had we given up on Lewis Diaz? He doesn’t make a 60 man roster if this were last season. Prospects like Balazovic won’t be the ones hurt the most. It will be the players that would have taken this season by storm but instead are at home. They may not get another chance. We won’t know who they are.

I think most teams have a need for AAAA players like Tovar, Maggi, Reinheimer, Adams and about 8 others that can fill in on the 40 if players are out with corona virus or injury and then can be removed from the 40 and thus DFA’d when players return.

Is there a speedster on the 40 man roster for the bench? i have been thinking about who I might pinch run if the Twins had to put a runner on second in extra innings. Wade and Cave might be the best options and they have very similar base running data but they aren’t difference makers. Both are near league median. They are closer to Sano than they are to Buxton. Would Nick Gordon be a better option? Is he enough of an improvement to take the Cave/Wade roster spot? Celestine is better but do you start the service time?

Aaron Gleeman's has a article in The Athletic on success of college first basemen drafted in the first round. https://theathletic.com/1866545/2020/06/13/spencer-torkelson-aaron-sabato-and-mlbs-missing-college-first-basemen/ The first look isn't encouraging but I wonder if there is a hidden value. Is it more likely for a college 1B to have success in their early minor league career and get notice as a valued prospect? Some of these college first basemen returned valuable pieces in trade. CC Sabathia (La Porta), Matt Holliday (Wallace), Cliff Lee (Smoak) and Mat Latos (Alonso) were all pieces acquired in trades that included these bats. The four players all had multiple appearances on top 100 lists ranking as high as 23, 27, 13 and 33 respectively. If you are a team that feels like you are in a competitive window the next 4 years trade assets like this have a lot of value at the trade deadline. Is there a hidden value here that the Twins are trying to leverage by drafting power hitting corner bats from college?

I haven’t seen Jeffers catch but I did read articles about his improved defense at catcher from MLB, BA and this one during the spring. https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-ryan-jeffers-trying-to-become-minnesota-twins-threat-313325916 I don’t think the Twins see players as fixed in their skills but rather look for players who they believe can develop skills that can help. Jeffers was a poor defensive catcher at the time of the draft but that isn’t a label he needed to keep. Soularie may not be a starting CF or maybe there are things that are hard to see that he does really well like first step and routes. If not OF, do they see a starting 2B or see a utility guy that can be developed to fill in at 6 positions?

Major league contracts start the options clock. It isn’t enough time to develop a player. Look back at the 2017 draft. There might be 3 players in that draft in Hiura, Canning and Haseley that don’t need more time in the minors. The only other guy in that class that may be ready is Randy Dobnak. He went undrafted.

Sobering MLB draft trivia... The best hitter ever drafted with the 27th pick is Scott Stahoviak. He leads the group with 27 career home runs and 1014 at bats. Nick Franklin has slightly more WAR at 1.2 (Stahoviak has 1.0) but Franklin’s positional value gives him the boost. Would you take the over or under on 1 career WAR from Sobato?

It is the revenue loss this year that will drive the need to reduce the payroll. They are extended a little further than other similarly revenued teams so it will be harder to bounce back. I think they will take a hard look at every contract that is not guaranteed.

The Twins are going to need to cut payroll significantly next year. I think many teams in small and middle markets will be letting go of players like Rosario. It could a very odd structure of tiered salaries for the next year or two with players who have guaranteed money earning much more than those with expiring contracts unless some kind of agreement is made with the player’s association. Contracts like Donaldson’s are going to be a much bigger burden.

I wonder If more starters are needed. They may need to stack starters early as they lengthen outings, I would have Thorpe and Smeltzer over Thielbar and Stashak early on.

The Twins need to develop starting pitching. They need to develop Thorpe’s talent which will have greater value than a return in trade. They are filling the back end with veteran question marks like Bailey and Chacin. I would prefer the go with the uncertainty of Dobnak, Thorpe or Smeltzer for at least one of those spots. Maybe they will.

Randy Dobnak undrafted college pitcher In 2017 moved pretty fast from independent ball to the majors. I am confident now that if pitchers perform well and remain healthy they will move up. The previous group was unable to provide the major league team with pitchers. It may have been an inability to recognize talent or an inability to develop talent. It doesn’t matter how fast or slow they move if they don’t have the talent or don’t know how to use it.

He needs to work hard and get back. It is the work that matters. As long as he works hard I don’t care what he says and I certainly have no interest in what he (or anyone for that matter) tweets.

In the spring of 2018 the Twins traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave. At the time of the trade Luis Gil had been in the Twin organization since 2015. He had thrown 65 innings over those three years with 73 strike outs and 46 walks. He did not pitch due to a shoulder injury in 2016 and had yet to pitch in rookie ball. He did not make Seth Stoh's 2018 prospect handbook. He did have a big fastball. In July of that season the Twins traded Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. Chalmers was injured at the time of the trade. He had been in the Yankee organization since 2015. He had thrown 121 innings over those years with 137 strikeouts and 91 walks. He would not pitch due to Tommy John surgery in 2018 and had yet to pitch above Low A. They have some similarities. They both had injuries that caused them to lose a season. They both had big strike out and walk numbers early on. They both needed to be put on the 40 man roster this off season and start their options clock. Keith Law ranked Luis Gil as the Yankees 14th prospect writing... He was ranked 5th in the MLB pipeline and 10th by Fangraphs. Keith Law ranked Dakota Chalmers as the 19th best prospect writing... He was ranked 23rd in the MLB pipeline and unranked by Fangraphs. Here is a recent article on Chalmers from Baseball America following his successful AFL season. Both have significant command issues as shown. Both look to be relievers. Luis Gil will be 22 this year and likely needs to start in High A where he has only three games of experience. He has three options to figure out the strike zone and gain experience at the higher levels. Dakota Chalmers is 23. He will likely start in AA. He also has three options to gain command of his pitches. The Twins acquired Jake Cave for Luis Gil. He has given the 2.3 fWAR as their 4th outfielder in two seasons. The Twins have 4 more seasons of control. The Twins traded Fernando Rodney to acquire Dakota Chalmers. They gave up control through 2019. Rodney netted -0.1 fWAR for the A's before he was released and then part of the Nationals World Series team (0.5 fWAR). Would you trade Chalmers for Gil today? Chalmers is closer. He might help in the pen this year if the Twins went that direction with him. Gil will likely start the year in high A and still be given the chance to be a starter. His value to the Yankees would be to show better control in the first half as a starter and then moving him at the deadline. Gil is further away with a history of shoulder trouble. Any injury set back and it is hard to imagine that he will be ready before his options run out. I will be interested in where they both start and whether Chalmers is in the pen or rotation. I would probably trade Chalmers for Gil. I like the upside of that arm and the possibility of having that trade piece at the deadline. Chalmers may be ready to help this year though. I see them both in a similar place as pitchers with a history of arm trouble, swing and miss stuff and command issues. They both need spots on the 40. In the moments when I regret the trade of Gil for Cave I need to remember appreciating the acquiring Chalmers for Rodney.

I think one of the young starters should get those 7-8 starts before Pineda returns. Dobnak appears most ready. I think Chacin is here only if someone goes down or it is really clear that his 2018 form has returned.

Danny Santana had an OPS+ of 130 and some data behind it to make us wonder whether he would repeat in year 2. Arraez had a low hard hit rate and exit velocity. Those two numbers are similar to Revere. Is it at least worth wondering about?

Should we ignore the 4th percentile hard hit rate or 19th percentile exit velocity? I don’t think it is wise to jump to only lack of home runs from there. Are there any other players who have consistently been better than league average hitters at those ranks? I don’t know the answer to that question but it can’t be many. It will be interesting to see how teams pitch and defend Arraez differently this year and then how he adjusts.

Revere had a career because of his defense and base running. Arraez will only have a career if his bat is much better than Revere’s.