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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I am sure the bullpen WAR ranking will be fine.
  2. jorgenswest
    Even in 2019 Pagán’s FIP was not as good as Duffey’s. Duffey has been a much better reliever over the last three years by any measure. Why would that change this year? Pagán hasn’t been a good reliever for two years and been a replacement level pitcher. The Padres did well to get anything for him after he gave them -1.64 WPA and -0.4 WAR.
  3. jorgenswest
    I guess in all this discussion I wonder why looking at a second half season sample is meaningful for relievers. Reliever sample is small in a full season. If Duffey or Theilbar happen to have better numbers in the second half than the first does that have any meaning for this year? I can’t imagine it does. If Alcala HR rates drops significantly in the second half sample after an insanely high rate the first half is that meaningful. Isn’t it likely that the true talent is somewhere in the middle? It seems we should no more be encouraged by a second half sample than worried about the first half. Projections look beyond those splits to multiple years. No one in the Twins bullpen is projected for an ERA under 4. That concerns me.
  4. jorgenswest
    2019 WRC+ was 126. Pretty impressive to be that much better than average and maybe even more so in the context of the juiced ball. 2020- 112 2021- 103 It is at least reasonable to argue the drop from 2019 to 2021 relative to league is significant.
  5. jorgenswest
    WPA Rogers 3.14 Paddack -0.49 WAR is a volume stat and does not account for leverage. The majority of Rogers’ contribution has been high leverage. Elite relievers make a difference in the win column. Starters can also or they can eat innings and add to their WAR.
  6. jorgenswest
    Seems like we’re are really hoping on the return of 2019. Paddack, Pagán, Kepler, Arraez, Urshela, Sano, Sanchez and even Duffey (with 2020) Is that a realistic hope?
  7. jorgenswest
    The Twins probably win this deal over the three years. Under control starting pitching comes at a premium and the cost of one year of Rogers and a limited corner OF prospect already 27 is often not enough. However they have invested in one year of an elite shortstop. Shouldn’t they do the opposite and go all in for 2022? I would. This move is not an all in move. Overpaying for Montas is all in. Sending prospects for one year of Bassitt or Manaea is all in. I would not have extended Rogers into his decline phase. The 2023 year is better with Passaic. Moving Correa at the deadline adds to the 2023 outlook. Acknowledging all of that I still would have gone all in while I had Correa. That didn’t happen. The outlook for 2022 is not as hopeful as it was yesterday. I am disappointed.
  8. jorgenswest
    Prior to the Correa signing I was a strong advocate for using the lens of 2023 with every addition. Using that lens this is a very good deal. Control of Paddack for three years fits that lens well. All good deals have a cost and the cost of this one is 2022. The projected performance of Rogers can not be replaced easily. I think one myth about relievers is that they are unreliable. It is true that their yearly stat line varies much more than starters but that isn’t a change in talent level. It is due to the small sample and the stats we are viewing. ERA, FIP, xFIP all need a sample beyond that inning out of a reliever in a single season. WAR variations are based on that data and a sample size that is unreliable. It becomes even more unreliable when we start looking at single season splits.
  9. jorgenswest
    I care about data. I don’t see a reliever projected to have an ERA under 4 on this roster. Read the write up that goes with their rank at number 8. It sums up well my concern. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/
  10. jorgenswest
    My guess https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/
  11. jorgenswest
    Of the 3.4 WAR projected for the bullpen Rogers accounted for 1.9. The next best was 0.4. When the bullpen relies on the health of one player I would call that thin. They replace Rogers with a reliever projected for 0.1 WAR. The new projection should put them in the bottom 10.
  12. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. Who are the go to relievers in high leverage situations? Seems like we have one less than we had yesterday. Seems like the bullpen was on the thin side yesterday.
  13. jorgenswest
    Should Duran be the closer?
  14. jorgenswest
    In his one season with the Rays he was a closer for a portion. He doesn’t pitch well with runners on base so coming into a clean inning probably helped. However has trouble with left handed batters so closing isn’t a good fit. I don’t think he is a helpful reliever and one year of control would be better than 2.
  15. jorgenswest
    As long as they don’t give Pagan any high leverage situations they should be fine. He has performed very poorly in high leverage situations over his career with an OPS against of .841
  16. jorgenswest
    They may as well start looking for teams interested in Correa now. They can’t win with this pen. Why would they want two years of control of Pagan?
  17. jorgenswest
    Even in a bad year for him Sanchez had a DRC+ last year of 106. Garver was 110. DRC+ takes into account the quality of opposing pitchers a batter has faced. Sanchez performance against those pitchers was 6% better than league.
  18. jorgenswest
    If they move Rogers they must really believe in Duran. Even so I don’t see how they can move Rogers and improve the team. They need a really good season from both Rogers and Duran to really contend. I would trade a corner OF prospect for pitching. The OF always has the much higher floor but you pay a premium for pitching,
  19. jorgenswest
    Talent trumps flexibility. Flexibility can help optimize existing talent. I hope the talent is there.
  20. jorgenswest
    Perhaps the Twins view Lewis closer to ready with the glove to play SS in the major leagues if there is a need. You may disagree with that view but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.
  21. jorgenswest
    Lewis had an opportunity to show it in summer 2020. We didn’t get to see it but the Twins saw him every day. I trust he should be in AAA. I don’t need to see it for myself.
  22. jorgenswest
    We set our inspiration bar in different places. I think this will be among the more interesting AAA teams and watching a game in St. Paul should be a good ticket this summer.
  23. jorgenswest
    Balazovic and Sands are pretty young and they do have their share of younger pitching on the major league roster in Duran, Winder and Ryan.
  24. jorgenswest
    Last year all of the replacement options were injured so there was nothing at the other end of the leash. Assuming the options are healthy and finding success I don’t think the stay will be long. In 2012 Jason Marquis saw 160 batters over 7 starts before they let him go. While small sample wise it would be the length of my leash. Marquis went signed with San Diego and was reasonably successful posting a 4.04 ERA over 15 starts and then gave them another 20 starts the next year with a 4.05 ERA. They could have used that performance but I still think the made the right decision to give that short leash.
  25. jorgenswest
    How critical is a third catcher? The Braves used 7 catchers last year. Four of them were not in the organization when the season started. Garrett Stubbs and his career 485 OPS was the Astros third catcher. He was on the roster 5 times last year totaling about 10 weeks. Somehow both teams were pretty successful without a reliable third catcher.
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