Two of the three you've listed are already here and have not yet proven capable of staying on the field long enough to have an impact. Law of averages and baseball history says that two of the remaining five deliver what we've anticipated, two become fringe producers and one a bust or never even gets here. AND none of them pitch.
Actually, this trade makes perfect sense--If the PTBNL is Cy Young. They finished last in the AL East standings and second to last in the AL in ERA. They're not moving their most valuable chip without getting significant pitching in return.
This works until Larnach, Kirilloff and two of your projected starting pitchers miss half the season with injuries. Then it's 2022 (and 2021) all over again.
The Twins need pitching because a year and a half ago they traded away the best pitcher they've home-grown in a generation. You're right about Arraez' value not being what it is presumed to be by Twins fans. He won a batting title with an OPS under .800. That's hard to do. Hell, D.J. LaMahieu won a batting title with 10 home runs and his OPS was over 1.000. Arraez hits for average and not much else. He's not a plus defender. If you can get a front line starter for him, make the move with the same urgency you should have used to sign Berrios to the exact same deal the Jays signed him to.
That's basically what I just said. The key is you've gotta find a way to keep they guys you grow yourself. Berrios was the best pitcher we've grown in a generation. The price Toronto paid to extend him was a price we should have paid in a heartbeat. We've spent a year and a half since looking for a guy who can be him. Joe Ryan's the only guy even close.
Sounds like the 11 years $313 Million I proposed 12 hours ago might just have gotten the job done. Seems the medical issue was only a 13 year issue and 11 or 12 years would be just fine.
Careful. I've also advance that argument. And been roasted for it. Now, hopefully, guys like Kirilloff, Larnach & Wallner will surpass him but we've not seen that yet. AND, HOPE is a terrible strategy.
And the two most prolific home run hitters this team has had in decades are sitting at home wondering if they'll have work in 2023. Both right handed hitters, which my TD associates tell me is a desperate need of this team.
"Maybe they’ll even extend their comfort zone to go big enough to beat out the obviously aggressive, big-thinking, smaller market Twins."--Gordon Wittenmyer NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Insider on the Cubs pursuit of Dansby Swanson.