Eris

There is the puzzling data that the Twins had a better record over Correa’s 4 years with the team when he was not playing. Look at who else is gone. Bader hustled all the time. Castro put forth a lot of effort. It will be interesting to see how this all works out. Having a person like Keaschall can be very infectious.

The Twins missed a great opportunity in the Brock Stewart trade. The Twins inquired about Shohei Ohtani as part of the trade and the Dodgers responded that Shohei wasn’t available for any combination of Twins players or for any other player in baseball. I feel that some of the recent articles on Twins Daily border on click bait. There are however probably interesting discussions that took place with Houston over Carlos Correa and I love to read about that in its entirety. For example, I have read that Houston originally asked for a major league outfielder plus salary relief as part of the package to which the Twins said “no.” In which case Houston missed a great opportunity to acquire Larnach, Wallner, Bader or possibly even Buxton.

Which is a greater failure, hanging on to a team of perennial losers or going in a direction that might produce a better outcome down the road. Not withstanding Buxton’s own glass body, the list of individuals who have failed Buxton is quite long. In addition to the front office it should include Sano, Lewis, Julian, Miranda, Kepler, maybe Larnach, definitely Vasquez and Donaldson, and possibly Correa as his presence did not elevate the Twins. Should also include every pitcher who threw a pitch where the result was Buxton crashing into a wall to make a play.

Jax has expressed interest in converting to a SP. The Rays have had success converting ex-Twin Zach Littell. Being even an average SP will provide higher career earnings than being a good RP.

It started falling apart about a year ago. This past week was the consequences. For the second half of 2023 through the first half of the 2024 season, the Twins were one of the best teams in all of baseball. Since the second half 2024 collapse, they have been one of the worst teams. It is difficult to understand how the same team—with about the group of players—can produce such divergent outcomes.

One reason for selling off pitching at the trade deadline is that deadline trades of pitching is more valuable than hitting as every playoff hopeful team seeks to bolster their RP. The most valuable assets were the starting pitchers which they did not sell. Also, beyond Bader and Castro who were on expiring contracts, the Twins have few position players that have value for a playoff team—maybe Ryan Jeffers who is a league average catcher (that we can not trade because of lack of any replacement).

I feel that discussion of money is just a sideshow to distract from the fundamental issue—how many position players with their current level of production would be starting on playoff caliber teams. Beyond Buxton probably no one. Yes, the Twins are losing money as per the > $400 million debt that the Pohlads want covered in the sale. But don’t let that detract from the real issue which is the failure to draft and develop talent. Even had they been able to afford a $20 million 1B, this would still not be a playoff caliber team.

Falvey deserves to be held accountable more for putting this team together than for blowing it up. The Twins had put a team on the field that for whatever reason was not delivering. As a fan, I have never been so disappointed in a team. I was led to hope after the 2023 season that I might live to see another WS before I die. It doesn't look promising. The main issue left unaddressed is that the replacement level killers remain (see previous TD article on this topic The Twins’ Replacement-Level Killers Killed the 2025 Season - Twins Daily Front Page News - Twins Daily). This is primarily because position players generally don't have as much value at the trade deadline as a relief pitcher because every team needs to reinforce their bullpen for the playoffs). Therefore, selling pitching is the most effective way to build value at the trade deadline. A number of trades (Duran, Jax, Stewart) seem to have fallen short on capturing the excess value of the July 31 trade deadline. To have competitive team, the position players need to produce in something about or > 25 fWAR. The math is quite difficult for the Twins this year and I am not certain the current roster will be better next year. Please tell me that Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, and Ryan will be better next year. At the trade deadline, the Twins had 2 players (Buxton and Bader) with > 2 fWAR and 4 players between 1 and 2 fWAR and a team fWAR of 10.3. The Tigers in contrast, have 4 players at > 2 fWAR and 5 players between 1-2 fWAR and team fWAR of 17.4. I am summarizing below what I have written earlier on the threads, so if you have already read this, feel free to skip the remainder of the message. Carlos Correa was only producing at about 1/2 of his expected contract. I am not certain what has all transpired to result in this. To me the most insightful note on this came from Phil Miller and reposted to TD by several. It is hard to comprehend the good clubhouse presence/image of Carlos Correa and being an on the field general manager with the data, which is that the Twins had a better outcome when Correa wasn't in the lineup. Wow! I would never have guessed this and I wish TD writers who were more capable that I would explore this in great detail as it might help us understand why this current team has so underperformed. Our team was actually better when our on-the-field leader was not on the field. OMG!! No wonder Twins fans have been so royally disappointed. (Note that the differences in the data are small and likely within the standard deviations, but the best we can say about Correa's tenure with the Twins is that the Twins did not do better than when he was in the lineup). Most of us would be fired from our day jobs in a couple of weeks if our teams performed better when we were not around. I am expecting more changes. Larnach, Wallner, and possibly Lewis may all need to go (read replacement level killers linked above)--maybe Wallner would work out at 1B. Falvey deserves to be held accountable for putting this team together in the first place. Blowing it up was only a natural outcome of the failure to build a decent team. To paraphrase one of my favorite quotes on the topic from a fellow TD, the Twins have put together a team where 5 or 6 players best position is DH--they are slow, they don't play good defense, and they can't hit consistently. What is left? Falvey should be fired for this.

The never to be answered puzzle is how so many players (Correa, Wallner, Lewis, Julian, Kepler, Miranda) could play like all stars for the 2nd half of 2023 giving hope, driving roster decisions and then collectively play some of the worst baseball ever since. There is a very strong possibility that Julian, Miranda and Kepler will not be on a 40 man roster next year. Of the two remaining players, Wallner and Lewis, neither is doing much to help the team this year.

While I agree with the overall assessment of the direction of baseball, I don’t agree with the conclusion as it relates to the Twins. The Twins are currently a very slow team with poor defensive metrics that seems to have been built for a different (bomba) era that has moved on. To paraphrase one of the more insightful comments on TD, the Twins have 5 or 6 position players whose best position is DH. This will need to be seriously addressed.

I understand the decision. I think they could have done better in the Varland trade. Correa wasn’t living up to his contract expectations. This still leaves the challenge of the replacement level killers unaddressed. The core of the under performance is on offense and defensive play and those players are still mostly on the team or waiting for someone else to step up. On the farm, with the exception of Keaschal, Jenkins and Culpepper reinforcements are a couple of years away.

“Correa, for his part, has done whatever he could to foster a winning atmosphere, and will continue to do so as he returns to the organization that took him first overall in 2012. “ The data below was posted in the TD general trade thread. It is very interesting that the Twins had a better winning percentage in games that Correa did not play The simplest conclusion is that whether or not Correa played was irrelevant to the the outcome of a Twins game. This is a really surprising outcome given his reputation for building a positive clubhouse culture and being an onfield general manager. It is also a position that no MLB player would like to be in as a players role on the team becomes very expendable when his presence in the lineup makes no difference in the outcome It would be very interesting to see a deeper analysis of the factors behind these numbers, such as playing hurt or a decline in defensive range and performance

There is obviously an issue here. I think the roster construction can in be contributed to poor first round drafting. There are a lot of picks on the list that have not contributed to making the Twins MLB roster. Lewis has put up 4.6 fWAR and Larnach 2.3 fWAR in 4 seasons, Petty was traded for Sonny Gray. Rooker, Cavaco, Sabato, Miller. That is a lot of first rounders to get little to no value. We can also add Kirriloff’s forced early retirement due to multiple career altering injuries.

All the professional athletes are playing to win the final game of the season. Most players—even the most loyal—would not pass up an opportunity to play for a team in the playoffs. There are many really good baseball players who have never played in the World Series. I don’t begrudge anyone for wanting that vs staying for a rebuild.

I think this was a good move for the Twins. Correa was slowing down at SS (there was an article on TD about a month ago about how poor his defensive metrics were). The Twins could really only justify his salary if a 4 WAR player who could be written in the lineup card everyday.

The Twins are right to consider trading Correa (and most other players—except their better starting pitchers). As the roster is currently constructed, the Twins do not have a good team and need to upgrade at multiple positions. They are — with only a few exceptions— slow, nonathletic, and play poor defense.

Correa, Julian, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda and to a lesser extent Kepler had almost career years and the fans and the FO wanted to believe the good times would last forever. Julian and Miranda are struggling in AAA, Wallner has less than 20 RBIs. Correas is producing at about 1/2 his value and Lewis is just starting to put this together after a body change screwed up his swing. To be fair the hope seemed reasonable and the disappointment only something the Twins can deliver. There is a possibility that Kepler, Miranda nor Julian will be on a 40 man roster at the end of the year. That is how a team goes from playoff contender to total system failure.

Correa is tracking for about 1.8 WAR for the year or about $20 million/WAR. The Twins will be fortunate if they can get an A lottery pick.

I think one of the factors that is missed by the maximum velocity approach to pitching is that when every pitcher has the same mechanics, a 96-97 mph fastball becomes much more hittable.

It is tough to get excited about this as prospect rankings are tossed around as if these have a lot of value. Gabriel Gonzalez was ranked 79 overall when he was acquired with Justin Topa, Darren Bowen, and Anthony DeSclafani + cash in the Jorge Polanco trade. 18 months later Gonzalez he is the 8th ranked Twins prospect and a recent article on TD questions if he has a path to MLB. SEA re

I thought a previous article on replacement level killers does a good job of summarizing the players lack of contributions. I would add Correa to that list. The manager/coaches for failing to get the most out of underperforming players. Then the FO for putting such a team together.

There are multiple ways to evaluate a trade. One of the most important considerations in evaluating a trade is were the goals of a trade met. If goals of trade are not met, the trade is an “F”. Just because the goals for the other team were not met shouldn’t mean the FO gets a passing grade. When the Twins are in the middle of a pennant race and use resources to boost pitching and guys we traded for did not achieve that objective the trade is a failure. With this FO there are more examples of “F”s than “A”s. The list of deadline acquisitions the Twins made in recent years that did not achieve immediate goals accounts for many of the deadline trades that were made. Off the top of my head this includes Jorge Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and yes Sam Dyson. The Fulmer trade was a success. When the Twins were sellers the Ryan trade was a success.

What about the Sam Dyson trade?

I agree with your assessment. What do you think is lacking. Is this about talent evaluation. Is there an issue with player development. My perception is that Tampa and Cleveland make very few poor trades and almost always seem to sell high on the players that are traded. The one exception might be the Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz trade.

A discussion of the Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps trade might be worthy of inclusion in the article regarding the value of excess catching talent.