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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    On Royce Lewis. Sometime injuries are just the result of bad luck. If I recall correctly, Lewis' first ACL injury happened while slipping on ice--an incident that seemed so minor that Lewis did not realize that he tore his ACL and it was discovered after experiencing general knee soreness during spring training. Very few MLB players have had 2 ACL restorations on the same knee and this is also his plant leg. It is quite likely that Lewis will never be the player he could have been without the injuries (and we will never really know). On Hunter Greene. He also had Tommy John surgery in 2018. Although that does not change the assessment that he has had the most career WAR to date. Additionally, Hunter Greene could have been a position player (SS/3B) as well.
  2. Eris
    Nice write up. Thank you.
  3. Eris
    I think the Twins are a better team with Kreidler at SS and Lee at 3B. Defensively this seems to be an upgrade at both positions.
  4. Eris
    I have always struggled with this aspect of sabermetrics. As for fWAR and bWAR calculations a HR with the bases empty is the same fWAR or bWAR contribution as a player hitting a 3 run HR.
  5. Eris
    Thanks for the interesting article. I would add one other item. Currently (meaning today) AI searches are heavily subsidized. Small organizations that need to make money to pay employees will generally have a hard time competing against much larger corporations willing to incur a loss for multiple years. At some point in the future these AI entities will need to make money to justify their investments. Then the free AI ride will end but by that time the smaller entities will be damaged or put out of business.
  6. Eris
    Gut reaction. He looks slow in the field and lost at the plate. If he is not playing through an Injury his days as a professional ball player are numbered. Of course players can turn it around (eg Larnach). One other item is that a couple of years ago I did a search and at the time there were only 5 MLB ball players with 2 ACL repairs on the same knee but none were on the plant leg (except Lewis).
  7. Eris
    A win is a win. The Twins had 4 straight hitters at the bottom of the order with a BA of 0.200 or less. Not sure why they were not willing to PH Jeffers or Gray in the 10th.
  8. Eris
    This makes a lot of sense. A team would need 8 effective pitchers to make it through the rotation with 5 for relief type roles. The challenge will be finding 8 effective pitchers who can go 2X through the order.
  9. Eris
    I was watching the game the other day (I don’t remember which one). There was a line drive hit to Lewis’s left. It appears that he did not move until the ball was almost past him. Either his reaction time or his lateral explosiveness is gone. With Lee and Lewis on the left side of the infield, the Twins are giving away multiple outs a game.
  10. Eris
    I am not sure Rod Carew qualifies as an international signee. Although born in Panama, he was attending high school in New York City when identified by a Twins scout.
  11. Eris
    Harmon Killebrew had a 17% K rate for his career. While I certainly hope that Wallner has a successful career, it becomes difficult to sustain success when striking out 30% of the time.
  12. Eris
    “Lewis’s improved role at 3B” I am trying to figure out exactly what has been improved. Lewis is hitting just .091 (3-for-33) with two home runs this spring. He has two walks and 11 strikeouts. Cutting Urshela is the correct move.
  13. Eris
    One of the components of this poor roster construction is that both Jeffers and Caratini are below average defensively. This is not ideal for getting the maximum out of a pitching staff.
  14. Eris
    Rooker has been able to reduce his K% from 33% with the Twins and his first year with Oakland to 22% last season. By fWAR his best season was at 28%K in 2024. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brent-rooker/19627/stats/batting
  15. Eris
    “The strikeouts may never disappear. That's the cost of doing business with a swing designed to lift and drive the baseball. But in an era in which teams are increasingly comfortable trading some contact for impact,“ if you look at the top 30 HR hitters from the 2025 season, only 2 players, Riley Greene and James Wood had a 30% K rate. The results are same when viewed by ISO. Similarly, looking at K% of qualified hitters from the 2025 season these max out at around 32% (Ryan McMahon and James Wood). My translation of this is that strikeouts matter and it is difficult being a productive and regular MLB player with a K% greater than the low 30s%. As this Thread relates to James Outman, as he doesn’t provide elite defense I don’t see how there is a future for him in MLB unless he can substantially reduce his strike outs. Data is from FanGraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
  16. Eris
    Baseball Salvants fielding run value for catchers aligns very well with the qualitative description of all 3 catchers defensive capabilities. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value?gameType=Regular&seasonStart=2025&seasonEnd=2025&type=fielder&position=2&minInnings=200&minResults=1
  17. Eris

    Intro: The Plan

    Eris commented on chpettit19's blog entry in Summer of Baseball

    Cleveland is quite close to Pittsburgh. If the schedule works I would do Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toronto, Detroit, WhiteSox, Cubs then Brewers. The negative of my suggestion is you would be watching Mariners play both Pittsburgh and Cleveland on successive days.
  18. Eris
    The rule changes in 2023 (bigger bases, pitch clock, limit on the number of pick off attempts) led to an upsurge in stolen bases. It is about time the Twins hop on the trend. Limiting the effort is the Twins ranked near the bottom in team speed last year. In terms of speed they are adding a full season of Martin and subtracting Willie Castro and Harrison Bader. Martin has not been a particularly effective base stealer in his career (18 of 25 for the past 2 seasons).
  19. Eris
    Part of this is because in order to achieve max velocity many pitchers have a similar delivery. The training for this starts before high school in many parts of country or the Caribbean.
  20. Eris
    Not tendering Larnach would not fundamentally change the poor roster construction which was built in anticipation of bombas forever and that defense doesn’t matter. I think that is the single biggest fault of the Falvey era. The success of the 2019 season drove drafting decisions of bat first players that have not worked out. To make a difference, many of the below defensive players need to be replaced with players of average to above average defense. Think of this as being similar to the Cleveland model. The problem is that many of these players have only limited trade value and we are left hoping for better production until the next round of prospects arrive. My take on this based on 2025 performances is that Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Lee all need to be replaced. Additionally, at almost every position the Twins have a sharp drop off between the starter and next best alternative. Backup shortstop. I don’t understand DFA of Ryan Fitzgerald. He was better than all three of the players they have in camp as SS depth. Maybe the plan is if there is a need, they will bring up Culpepper whether he is ready or not.
  21. Eris
    Success is having a team that is competitive enough to put fans in the seat and to make a decent playoff run every few years. So no, the Falvey era was not a success. i think one of the failures of the Falvey era was because of the early success of the bomba squad in 2019 that perhaps drove years of player development strategy which then failed because pitchers became more successful in neutralizing the upper cut swing and of course the end of the juiced ball. The team seemed to be very slow adapting to the new style of baseball that came after the bomba era.
  22. Eris

    New data analytics

    Eris commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    I thInk one of the shifts needed is a focus on playing good defense, something that at least half of the current position players do not seem capable of.
  23. Eris
    Not sure I really agree with this. In part, yes restricting payroll reduces the ability to sign free agents to offset inefficient development or poor drafting or poor trades. Falvey’s high profile free agent signings mostly did not work out and Falvey owns that. First Correa signing was okay, the second was a disaster and should have foreseeable as 2 teams cancelled contracts after his physical. Donaldson, another high profile FA signing had to be offloaded, then there is Vasquez and Gallo. Plus many deadline trades that did not work out. Also it seems like for most of Falvey’s tenure their draft strategy was focused on rebuilding/maintaining the Bomba squad with a heavy focus on bat first players with questionable defensive skills. Resulting in a roster with 5 or more players whose best position is DH and some of the worst defense in the league. How is that working out.
  24. Eris
    While I generally agree with your comment, a different way to look at the roster construction is that Twins had one of the worst infield defenses in the league last year and the drop off from Lewis and Lee is quite significant.
  25. Eris
    I agree with this. He seems like someone who could make a clubhouse very toxic.
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