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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    If we're doing 2 bats, 1 starter, 1 reliever I would go Buxton, Kirilloff, Winder, Duran.
  2. chpettit19
    I don't know that I like comparing him and Lewis, but Gordon has shown he's a very useful player on a big league roster. With everyone running 13 man pitching staffs it makes guys with Gordon's versatility even more important. He's a big league player even if he may not ever be a big league regular. Having a guy who can play just about anywhere defensively and not totally kill you is very useful. I'd keep him over a Garlick type. I don't know how long Gordon sticks with the Twins, but I think he has a big league job until he starts losing his speed. He's not as fast as his brother, but his speed is still important to allowing him to play the outfield as he can make up for some slower reads with some closing speed. My guess would be the Twins hold onto him until he starts getting into his 2nd and 3rd years of arbitration when I'm not sure they'll see him as worth the money. He probably has a nice career as a journeyman utility guy ahead of him. Not a bad life.
  3. chpettit19
    For this specific situation, Bundy has an OPS against of .957 against the top 2 guys in an order, .744 against 3-6 hitters, and .601 for 7-9 hitters. Bundy has an .865 OPS agsint 3rd time through the order, which is often him facing the top of the order as you point out, but he's worst against the top of the order. Jax, who replaced him to face the top of the order, has a .392 against the top 2 guys (small sample size), .688 3-6 hitters, and .655 7-9. And an OPS against of .588 the first time he faces a guy in a game. .572 OPS against in his first 25 pitches thrown. I think the 3rd time through the order narrative is also misrepresented as being the hard rule for every pitcher. It's the general rule for Bundy, but not Ryan. Ryan has faced someone a third time in all 12 of his starts this year. Bundy has done it in 9 of 14 starts. Archer 4 of 15 starts. Gray 8 of 11. Ober 5 of 7. Smeltzer 9 of 10. Now there are many reasons why a guy would face guys a 3rd time or not. Sometimes a blowup game is a reason they don't, but sometimes it's a reason they do (just eating the L that day and trying to save the pen). Sometimes the lineup gives you such a big lead it leads to the starter being able to throw more (Bundy faced guys a 4th time in 1 start). I think the 3rd time through the order rule is more about when they start making decisions. It's more about "ok, we're getting to the top of the order a 3rd time, who do we have available, what's the score, what inning are we in, how's the starters peripherals, when's our next off day" and so on. Yesterday was a close game with a fully rested back of the pen and an off day in 3 days. Numbers show Jax had a better chance of getting through the next inning with a 0 so they went to him. The math changes everyday. It's not a hard and fast rule. It's a general guideline they look at as 1 part of an extremely complicated situation with a ton of variables.
  4. chpettit19
    Guess it's a little about what we're trusting them to do. Need a big HR late? Buxton is #1. Need a big hit late? Buxton is not in my top 3. I'm with the majority in the comments here that I don't have any idea how you can't list Arraez #1. Is that just a ploy to get the comment section going? Cuz he's clearly #1 and I don't think it's particularly close. Correa would be a very clear #2 to me. I'd probably go Polanco 3, Buxton 4, and Kirilloff 5.
  5. chpettit19
    Because he's trying to put the team in the best position possible to win the game. If it weren't such a close game Bundy would've been allowed to go. But in a close game you play the odds and the odds very clearly say taking Bundy out gives you the better chance to win. Which they did. Winder is in Chicago on the taxi squad and could be activated today to eat multiple innings out of the pen. They knew that before yesterday's game since he was with them then. Is it possible that they had a plan of "if it's close take Bundy out and use the pen since that's our best odds and we'll activate an extra starter for Tuesday if we need to, but if it's a blowout let Bundy go as long as possible and save the pen arms for Tuesday?" I'm not saying Winder is going to be activated, but it's a possibility. Oh, and they have an off day Thursday. Then a 3 game series before another off day. They have plenty of time to rest arms.
  6. chpettit19
    Winder looks like a legit starter and I'm ok with keeping him in St Paul until a starter is needed in Minneapolis, or having the Twins get more creative with bulk work. I'd like to keep Winder as a starter and not bulk reliever so he can continue to perfect his routine for starting as I think he can be a big part of the top of the rotation with Ryan for the next half decade. Sands feels like a bulk reliever to me. Once through the order kind of guy. Use him for 2 or 3 innings 2 or 3 times a week. I'd give him a shot in the majors if they're feeling he's ready for that. He's been pretty inconsistent this year (if I'm remembering correctly) so maybe he needs a little more work in AAA still. But he feels like a guy they'll use as a once through the order type. I don't know much about Henriquez, but upper 90s as a starter while struggling to get guys out consistently certainly feels like a guy worth trying in the pen. Maybe he's a 1 inning shutdown guy, or maybe he's a once through the order guy. I haven't looked at his stats to see if there's a clear line there, but anyone throwing that hard would get a look in the pen if I were running things and they were struggling as a starter. Doesn't hurt to say "let it fly for an inning and see how it goes." Makes complete sense to try him as a starter to see what you have, but when the situation around him changes and he's struggling in that role there's nothing wrong with adjusting and seeing if he can fill a different role you have a clear need for. Others have mentioned Canterino and he certainly feels like Duran 2.0. Would love him and his stuff as a starter, but his arm may just not be up for it. Maybe they have medical people telling them a move to the pen wouldn't keep his arm healthy anyways, but unless that's the case I'd probably make that move. He's 24 now so he's not young, but not old. He's got the stuff to pitch in the majors right now, but can't stay healthy long enough to work on things. If you can turn him into a late inning arm to pair with Duran for the next half decade that's not the worst outcome ever compared to a constantly injured starter. I'm sure they're having those discussions already.
  7. chpettit19
    I think you're selling the Orioles staff, and Jorge Lopez's performance for the season, short. They're not world beaters, but they're not the same Orioles pitching that we've seen the last handful of years. They've had the 11th best ERA in baseball since June 1. 15th best since May 1. So, again, not world beaters, but you're not talking about the 25th-30th worst staff either. And before Friday's game Jorge Lopez hadn't given up an earned run since May 19th. If that's "the midst of a rough patch" sign me up for a Twins bullpen rough patch! Before that he hadn't given up an earned run since April 13th. He'd given up 3 earned runs all season before Friday. He wasn't in the midst of anything but complete domination before Friday. His previous appearance was 1 inning with 3 Ks. 2 appearances before that was .2 innings with 2 Ks. 2 appearances before that was 1.1 innings 4 Ks. He's been unbelievable. He had a .78 ERA and hadn't allowed a homerun in 37 innings pitched this year before Buxton got him. It feels unnecessarily negative to spin this as him going through a rough patch and not giving the Twins credit when he'd given up fewer runs in 37 innings pitched this year than he did in .1 innings pitched against the Twins.
  8. chpettit19
    Yeah, I figure the kinds of teams that would trade for them are contenders who want a little more depth so didn't think they'd be likely to give up any major league pieces. A rental reliever would be ideal, but would think the teams trading good relievers are looking for younger prospects and not veteran depth pieces.
  9. chpettit19
    I was thinking the same thing about Tim Beckham. They're not going to bring back any big names or anything, but both look like they're making a real statement about deserving another big league shot and the Twins don't have room for either of them. Wonder if you could turn them into a couple fliers in the low levels of the minors.
  10. chpettit19
    Moran, Duffey, and Thornburg all threw more than 1 inning today. Duran threw 2 yesterday. Moran threw 2 in game 2 Tuesday. Cotton threw 2 Monday. Pagan threw more than 1 Sunday. So the only game this week they didn't have a reliever go more than 1 inning was game 1 Tuesday.
  11. chpettit19
    I wouldn't trade any big prospects for him because of exactly what you're questioning. He wouldn't be someone I count on beyond this year, but I'll take a flier on a guy for this season.
  12. chpettit19
    Baltimore has a few guys in their pen I wouldn't mind having stay in Minnesota after the Orioles head back to Baltimore on Monday. Can Lopez at least go to Chicago with us on Monday? I'll let Baltimore use him for the weekend, but would prefer he takes the Twins charter after the series.
  13. chpettit19
    They pretty much all have him as a negative this year...
  14. chpettit19
    I mean it's hard to argue he won't be able to spend more time with his daughter like he said. LSU played 62 games this season. 21 on the road. College teams play mostly Fri, Sat, Sun series, especially if there's real travel involved (not just a quick bus ride to play a local college). There's certainly travel with recruiting, and the job is a year round commitment, but he'll be home far more than he was with the Twins. Spring training alone is more days away from home than all the road games a college team plays.
  15. chpettit19
    It sure doesn't feel like they're going to be stacking anyone, but I'd pair up Bundy and Archer. Bundy still scares me so I'd like to give him shorter outings and Archer hasn't built up enough stamina yet. I'd see if I could get 9 innings out of the 2 of them every time through the rotation and give my pen an extra day off. But my guess is they just send Winder back and wait for another injury to bring him back. Ober coming back creates an even bigger imbalance between the rotation and pen so I hope they have a plan to move some guys around eventually. But we all know injuries, or poor performance, will likely solve the rotation overcrowding and the pen will still need outside reinforcements.
  16. chpettit19
    FYI, pitcher IL stints are 15 days now. Same with being sent down, they have to stay down for 15 days.
  17. chpettit19
    Rocco said they weren't interested in going back to a 6-man rotation when Winder first came off the IL recently. Makes me wonder where they go from here. In my opinion he's ready. And the staff as a whole clearly has holes and needs all the legit arms they can get. Too many starters, not enough relievers is something I'd hope they can fix by moving some of those starters to the pen. Dodgers used to do it with Maeda, maybe Twins decide to follow that blueprint eventually this year.
  18. chpettit19
    Alcala can't come back soon enough. Really need to see what he's looking like this year. If he's like he was to end last year it'd change the playoff outlook for this pen greatly. With extra rest days in the playoffs you can ride your pen horses a little harder and Duran, Alcala, Jax could be a really nice back 3. I'd still like to add 1 more piece at the deadline. Also hope Maeda is back in September in a pen role. But Duran, Alcala, Jax, and 1 trade acquisition would make me feel much better about the pen situation.
  19. chpettit19
    How many pitchers does the average major league team have on the IL? Have the Twins been above or below average on number of pitcher injuries since 2019?
  20. chpettit19
    I guess my response would be that he's at the major/D1 level so it comes into play. There are some drastic differences between D1 recruiting and D3 recruiting. D1 has way more limits on when they can talk to kids, etc. It plays a huge role in the timing of things like this since they need to be ready to hit the ground running on July 6th when recruiting really opens and having a pitching coach like Wes is a huge selling point to D1 schools that are looking to bring in kids who are going to be drafted coming out of high school. I don't have LSU's current recruiting list in front of me, but I assume they have some kids coming in who will be drafted in a month and having Wes on staff at that point will be a huge part of their pitch to get the kids to turn down their drafting team and go to LSU instead. Wes being a former Major League pitching coach is a huge selling point on the recruiting trail. Being able to tell elite HS prospects that they have the chance to be coached by a guy who knows what it takes to succeed in the bigs can't be valued enough.
  21. chpettit19
    Jax is in the 87th percentile for K% this season. I think you may be selling him short. 76th percentile for velo isn't exactly elite, but 90th percentile in whiff% shows he's certainly missing bats. He's been way different as a reliever than as a starter.
  22. chpettit19
    Straight to the point naming! https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/12/what-is-stuff-quantifying-pitches-with-pitch-models/ Here's an article from driveline. https://theathletic.com/2641834/2021/06/11/the-pitcher-report-what-exactly-is-stuff-featuring-rich-hill-sam-long-and-more/ Or The Athletic if you have a subscription there.
  23. chpettit19
    You may want to go check out their runs scored in the playoffs during the current 18 game losing streak...
  24. chpettit19
    Griffin actually does have some really good stuff if you believe in analytics like Stuff+. In fact he's ranked 23rd (128.2 Stuff+) in baseball by Stuff+, 1 spot above Duran (127.8 Stuff+). Edit: sorry, I was on the wrong tab, that was from earlier this month. The numbers as of 6/26 are Jax 127.6 and Duran 128.8. So Jax is still right in the same wheelhouse as Duran. Duran is 21st in baseball and Jax is 26th of anyone who's thrown a pitch this season. If you limit to guys with at least 10 appearances they're 13th and 18th in baseball.
  25. chpettit19
    The bonuses and "other ways to pay college coaches" means he's still likely making 700k+. Kyle Boddy (founder of driveline, and with no bias in the situation), had a nice thread on twitter last night explaining that just going on a college coach's base salary is not an accurate picture of what they'll be making. Reusse, Gleeman, and multiple others with many sources saying the drastic raise is still accurate.
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