chpettit19

Have to love that Martin flow! I don't love him on the dirt, though. Go let him roam free in the pastures!

I'm a little confused by the idea of using Polanco as a DH simply because he's a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter doesn't mean he hits lefties and righties equally well. He's got a career OPS of .720 vs lefties, but an OPS of .806 vs righties. Last year he was .832 against righties and .602 vs lefties. He may be a switch hitter, but he's far better against righties. He's got real splits just like some non-switch hitters. It's why I'd go Buxton-Polanco-Correa at the top of the order. Get him between 2 righties so he faces all the righty bullpen arms.

I didn't love the pick because of his lack of any tools outside his hit and power, but his hit and power had the chance to be elite. I can see the thought process in grabbing him at the end of the first and hoping he turns into a Nelson Cruz type. To this point it's really hard to see him ever making the majors. He absolutely destroyed college baseball. He had some swing and miss to his game then, but I don't think any of us would've predicted the insane K rates we saw from him in the low minors. It wasn't a great pick, but I think we're being a literal harsh due to some 20/20 hindsight. This is the risk you take when you go after a bat only player. You have the upside of Nelson Cruz, but the downside of them never succeeding in the high minors even. I still hope something clicks for him, but it's not looking likely at this point.

It's "Top Prospect" season, and the hope train has picked up a lot of steam around these parts. Lewis and Lee (as far as infielders go) are the only 2 with high probability of being as good as Polanco. The rest have outside chances because you just never know, but none of them are projected to be the overall player a healthy Polanco is. And he's not 35, he's 29. I hope he isn't breaking down already, but that would certainly change the narrative. I think many people are way too eager to move on from solid vets, or well above average ones like Polanco, for unproven rookies/prospects/oft-injured "youngsters" these days because it's the climax of the "season of hope" that is the offseason and prospect lists are coming out right and left.

This looks like the perfect situation for the Twins. They have a wave of prospects pushing for their chances, but have a major league roster full of proven MLB talent (not a bunch of stars, but a bunch of guys who've been really solid). I know we're all excited about the prospects, but the hard truth is that a number of them will fail. Arraez had no spot going into 2019, but by the end of the year he'd taken Schoop's job, and Schoop was gone the next year. Miranda had no spot going into 2022 (and none of these prospects have had a season like Miranda had in 2021), but by the end of the year he'd taken Urshela's job, and Urshela is gone now. This is how it's supposed to work. Preferably the Miranda/Urshela situation so you can trade the vet for a low level prospect to add to the next wave. We all want Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin, et al to produce. We want them to take the jobs of vets who aren't performing up to the needed level of production. And some will. If Polanco has his typical odd year production I'd much rather have him than bank on any of the prospects early. But if we've actually seen the start of the decline then it's great to have some guys with real shots to take his place. If Polanco has his typical odd year production, and prospects start to show their worth in their various opportunities, then Polanco is a great trade chip next offseason (or at the deadline if a couple prospects have really taken jobs by then) for an upgrade somewhere on the roster. I was leaning towards the FO being replaced, but I think this has been their best work yet, and, for the first time, they look like they may actually have set this team up for continued success.

I watched him in the AFL some, and he didn't look anywhere near MLB average at 2B. That doesn't mean he can't get there, but he's got a long ways to go. His defense is a real question mark.

FYI, Julien only played 2B (and DH) last year.

ERod is a reasonable enough choice. Ideally he debuts in the bigs in 2024, but he may not get enough ABs to graduate, due to there being a number of other high end OFers we're hoping claim starting jobs with the Twins this year and moving forward, so could still be rookie eligible going into 2025. If he's still eligible, hopefully he's #1 here. I think #2 is likely to be the #5 pick this year. Raya and Prielipp seem like good choices to be on the cusp of MLB debuts going into 2025 so hopefully they're at the top here, too. I'd like to see Salas debut in 2024 like ERod. He's already spent time in A+ and the expectation should be that he reaches AA this year. Once you're in AA, as a top prospect, you're on the doorstep and he should have a shot at debuting in 2024 if he's the top prospect we hope he is. Mercedes seems like a nice option for the top 5 as well. The guy who's hat I'll throw in as a hopeful option is Noah Miller. He's got the glove, and I'm hoping to see him continue to increase his strength and be able to handle the bat well the next 2 years. It'd be great to have him touching the top 5 system prospect range and be in AA or AAA going into 2025.

I think Wes knowing what this particular FO looks for in pitchers means he can give them more specific information than the average team. Every team will ask the same character, work ethic, coachability, etc. questions (and have their scouts watching for clues on those questions as well), but Wes knows the specifics of what the Twins look for in pitchers so Wes can more easily thumbs up or thumbs down whether or not he really fits their philosophies. It's likely not a huge thing, but I think the Wes connection at least helps ensure they're 100% speaking the same language and he's answering the questions more specifically I'd think.

Just looks like extra injury insurance to me. Most likely for Kirilloff. And having Polanco sit against lefties wouldn't be terrible either. An IF of Farmer, Correa, Solano, and Miranda would be a lefty killer. I'm all for more depth. I have as high a hopes as anyone for the young guys, but relying on them from the jump is a risky proposition. Especially when very few of them have proven they can stay healthy. To me, this is Kirilloff depth. Gallo is Larnach depth. Taylor is Celestino depth. Do people not remember the lineups the Twins were throwing out there at different points last year? I mean Celestino, Garlick, Palacios, Cave, Beckham and Contreras were starting games last year. More depth and competition is good. There's plenty of plate appearances to go around, and the young guys will get their shots. Miranda has shown he can stay healthy, and is being handed a job. I think if we'd seen Larnach, Lewis, and Kirilloff stay healthy they'd have been handed jobs as well. I'm excited to see what Martin, Lee, Julien, and Wallner can do, too, but handing those guys opening day jobs isn't what a competing Twins team should do. They will all get chances to prove their worth as injury/performance based fill ins. I think the hope train has taken over too much. The future looks bright, but some of these prospects will fail. Bringing in vets to ease that transition and not put it all on young guys hitting the ground running is smart, in my opinion. Especially a move like this that I'm guessing is for very minimal money and he's easily moved on from if/when one of the young guys overtakes him. I wasn't expecting this move, and don't think it was of utmost need, but I like it just fine. Nobody can say the FO didn't learn their lesson about depth, though.

Just looks like a depth move to me. A little extra spring training insurance for any injuries. Extra Kirilloff insurance mostly. Would be shocked to see him make the opening day roster if Kirilloff is good to go opening day, and there aren't any spring injuries to IFers.

If the Twins could get him to sign that deal they should do it immediately. If Royce is offered that deal he should turn it down immediately.

I'm typically a bat at the top of the draft guy because they're easier to predict and turn out more often than pitchers, but Skenes may be my pick if I had pick 1:1 right now. He's got the stuff, and athleticism, to be an absolute stud on the mound. One of the biggest hurdles pitchers face as they move up the levels of pro ball is being able to repeat their delivery to truly master all their pitches and increase their control. A guy who throws 99 with that slide piece, but is also athletic enough to be a position player (I don't love the idea of a pitcher catching, though. Way too much stress on their knees) should be ultra coachable and give him the best chance to advance quickly and front a rotation in the bigs. The Wes connection there is nice as well. If Skenes is available at 5 and they don't take him (assuming he dominates the rest of the year and stays healthy) I'll assume they got some inside info from Wes and they didn't think he'd be a good fit. But a good word from Wes could also be enough for them to take an arm at #5 instead of a bat. Right now he's the guy I'm most hoping they get at #5.

I think the Yankees are in fan's heads more than player's heads. I think they just typically have a much better team than the Twins so they tend to beat the Twins a lot. And if I'm wrong about the player's heads then I hope Correa gets their heads straightened up. For the rest of their careers I'll take Miranda, but for 1 season I'd bet on the guy whos done it way more. Miranda actually faded down the stretch. It's why he changed his diet and workout routine to get his new "sexy" body. I will grant that Stanton's dip in production last year could've been the start of his decline, but I think he's got at least 1 more 130+ OPS+ in him. And I generally question rookie year performances. The majors is all about adapting, and the league is going to adapt to Miranda. It's why I'm not sold on the Guardians being all that great again offensively. A bunch of no name rookies hit the ground running last year, but it's much harder to maintain your production once the league gets an idea on how to get you out. I believe in Miranda overall, but when just discussing him vs Stanton I'd bet on Stanton for this 1 season. The Yankees are hoping for just as much youth production, and veteran bounce back, this year as the Twins. Lemahieu and Donaldson with a sprinkling of Hicks for the Yankees. Polanco and Gallo with a sprinkling of Kepler for the Twins. Peraza, Volpe, and Cabrera for the Yanks. Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff for the Twins. I think the Twins lineup matches up well on paper with the Yankees. I think the Astros make them both look like little league teams on paper. (That's some exaggeration, but the Astros are absolutely loaded)

I think the Astros set the benchmark for offensive greatness in the American League this year. Unless we're expecting another historic year from Judge. And a player for player comparison with them would be a really bad look for the Twins right now. I agree with @TwinsDr2021 that Stanton is a better hitter right now than Miranda. Contract and health concerns keep it close, but if you're picking 1 of them in a vacuum for the 2023 season I think Stanton is a pretty easy choice. I'd actually take Kirilloff over Donaldson for 2023, though. That's me being a believer that his wrist is healthy, and will stay healthy. But I think a healthy Kirilloff is significantly better than Donaldson at this point of their careers. I'd mostly agree with the rest of the comparisons, though. I just don't think the Yankees offense is that great without an historic year from Judge. Lots of holes in that lineup.

And that's why I said it wasn't a reason to give up on him or that he's doomed. But ignoring the numbers doesn't make any sense. My point was that if he can't maintain a solid batting average he will have no ability to get on base, and then his base running doesn't matter. You listed his .241 BA like it doesn't matter because he got on base so much. Which is totally fine. But when you're talking about him progressing it does matter. Because he won't be able to walk so much as he moves up and faces better pitching. Not sure what "getting lost in the numbers" means, but I hope you're not suggesting that a lot of guys who hit poorly (BA, slugging, whatever you want) get to the majors and are suddenly completely different guys. Guys don't hit .241 consistently in the minors and then get to the majors and hit .300. Ignore all the OPS numbers if you want. Take slugging out of it completely. I'm not saying he needs to be a slugger of any sort. But there were only 42 hitters in all of major league baseball that had 300 PAs and an OBP of .350 or better last year. If Martin's offensive skills are getting on base and being a good base runner he's going to need to get on base at a .350 clip. That is insanely hard to do if you're not hitting for a pretty solid average. Because you simply won't get walked by major league pitchers. I don't know why that's a crazy suggestion. Major league pitchers walk fewer guys than AA pitchers. So he can't simply build a career by hoping major league guys walk him that much. It's entirely fine if Martin is an OBP and base running guy. But in order for him to become that guy he's going to have to hit the ball better than he did last year. He absolutely could do that. I'd actually bet that he does do that. But suggesting minor league numbers don't mean anything is pretty aggressive. Last year was incredibly disappointing for him. I think he'd tell you that. I don't know why it's bad to point out that he had a disappointing season.

I'm aware of that. But you said "Benintendi should be the absolute floor." If you think Benintendi is the "absolute floor" then you're talking about Martin getting MVP votes since you're expecting/hoping/whatever him to be much better than Benintendi. I told you what Benintendi did on offense. He was 6th amongst qualified LFers, and 19th amongst qualified OFers WITH THE BAT in 2022. He was 23rd amongst all major league outfielders with at least 300 PAs (not even close to qualifying for the batting title) WITH THE BAT in 2022. If you don't think being one of the 25 best outfield bats in baseball is good I don't know what to tell you.

I think you're underselling Benintendi by quite a bit. He was 6th amongst LFers in wRC+ last year. 19th amongst qualified OFers. He was 27th in wRC+ amongst all outfielders with at least 300 PAs last year. 21st amongst that group in fWAR. He was an all star last year, and has won a gold glove. 2018 Benintendi was 7th in fWAR, and 23rd in wRC+ amongst OFers with at least 300 PAs. If you're thinking that's Martin's floor you're expecting Martin to be an MVP candidate.

I think it's disappointing because those OBP numbers are likely impossible to maintain as he moves up the ladder if he can't hit higher than .241 and/or slug more than .317. Major league pitchers won't walk him at the kind of rates he'd need to be walked to be a useful player if he's only hitting .241 with no power. That's the disappointing part. What it means for his projections if he can't hit better than .241. He won't get on base at those clips against major league pitchers if he can't impact the ball significantly better than he did during most of the season. That's why the AFL stint was so encouraging. There were 32 qualified major leaguers with an OBP of .350 or higher last year. The lowest batting average amongst them was .242 by Juan Soto. But he slugged .452, is a feared MLB star, and is known for having one of the best eyes in the history of baseball (his 20.3% walk rate last year is astronomical. For reference, Martin was at 11.8% in AA). The next lowest BA was .252 for Christian Yelich. The average OPS for that group was .846. Average BA for that group was .289. So I think it's pretty reasonable to call him hitting .241 and OPSing .683 in AA disappointing. Edited to add: None of that means he's doomed or we should give up on him. Simply that he did have a disappointing season.

I think Andrew Benintendi is a really good comp for Martin. I think 2022 Andrew Benintendi (with more steals) is his best case scenario if he doesn't develop more power. Most definitely a useful player, but not the sort of star you're hoping for out of the #5 pick. But Benintendi was the 7th pick in his draft, and an even higher ranked global prospect than Martin. 2018 Benintendi, and the trajectory people thought he was on, is closer to the top end of where Martin could be. But if he ends up being a slightly faster Benintendi I think we should, and would, be very happy. 2018 Benintendi (23 years old): 148 games played, 16 HRS, .290/.366/.465/.830, 123 OPS+ and 4.8 bWAR, 123 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR 2022 Benintendi (27 years old): 126 games played, 5 HRS, .304/.373/.399/.772, 120 OPS+ and 3.2 bWAR, 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR If Martin turns into a 3-5 WAR/year player I'll be very happy to have him on the squad.

I was a huge fan of Martin coming out of Vandy, and him being part of the Berrios trade made that move sting a little less. I think Keith Law was onto something when he was worried about Martin's injury with Toronto changing his approach too dramatically to the "slap it the other way" approach. The swings he was letting off in the AFL looked far better than the swings he'd been showing when he came over from Toronto, and to start last year. There was a very clear change in his stance, and he looked to be attacking the ball with more authority in September and the AFL. I don't know if that was him finally feeling healthy again, or him being frustrated with the way his season had gone and finally starting to just let it rip. It was great to see him make some changes when he came back at the end of the season, and gives me real hope for him going into 2023. Kirilloff and Martin are the 2 guys who's swings I'll be watching the closest come this weekend when the games start.

They're likely a little of both. Grounders are marked where they're fielded/first touched. Line drives and popups are marked where they landed. So a bunch of those singles are likely groundballs showing where they were fielded. At least that's what the tracking systems I'm aware of do. Perhaps baseball savant is different, though.

The Padres and Brewers used Rogers on back to back days 17 times last year. It became pretty apparent in his time with the Twins that he was bad on back to back days. The same kind of things popped up (his OPS against was .879 in appearances with 0 days rest) so people want to blame that on the managers using him wrong. My first thought about that is that you're not really a closer, let alone an elite one, if you can't be used on back to back days. Especially since the playoffs have a number of back to back games and you'd want your elite closer to be used in some of those I'd think. The other thing is that his OPS against wasn't good when he had 2, 3, or 4 days of rest last year either. It was very good with 1 day of rest. Taylor Rogers simply wasn't very good last year, and has never been an elite closer, or, in my opinion, a good closer, because if you can't use your closer in back to back games he's just reliever.

Mitch Haniger signed a $43.5 million deal. Between his signing bonus (6 million) and 2023 salary (5 million) he will make 11 million this year. Makes 17 million next year. Then has an opt out or can accept 15.5 million in 2025. I'm not sure I'd call that "little or nothing." Especially when he's topped 100 games played in only 2 of his MLB seasons.

Interesting find there. I'll start by saying any study with only 42 data points means next to nothing for me. 32% of those players were outfielders, and 32% were infielders. Now we're down to 26 players in this comparative sample. I'm going to need more than 26 data points to call anything useful. There's no real data in 13 outfielders hurt their knee more in the field than on the bases than 13 infielders did. Especially when those 26 players range from youth athletes (data means literally nothing to MLB athletes), to high school (still useless), to college (somewhat useful), and then the pros (useful). Were those 13 outfielders all 6th graders or high school kids? I appreciate the effort here, but that study means nothing in this context. Adalberto Mondesi tore his ACL on either a pick off play trying to get back to 1st, or a fake steal he did on the next pitch. Daniel Hudson tore his ACL trying to get off the mound to field a dribbler. Wilson Ramos tore his fielding a weak grounder in front of the plate. Kyle Schwarber tore his in a collision with another player. Marcus Stroman tore his doing fielding drills in spring training. Mariano River tore his just shagging fly balls. Dexter Fowler tore his running the bases. Adam Eaton tore his in a collision running to first. Acuna tore his chasing a fly ball. Royce tore his making a play against the wall. Mauricio Dubon tore his in a rundown after getting picked off. Antonio Senzatela tore his trying to cover first on a grounder to the 1B. There's a bunch of the recent MLB torn ACLs. I'm not seeing anything screaming "don't play guys in the OF!" there. Just a bunch of randomness. Which is what this is. A really big bummer of a random event. Edit: Sorry, I wasn't paying attention to what thread we were discussing this in. I appreciate the back and forth, and the effort to finding data, but let's get this back to Lee. I think we can both agree that Lee taking an infield spot is a very good idea!