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PDX Twin

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Everything posted by PDX Twin

  1. PDX Twin
    Since they know more than we do, I'm interpreting this as a signal that Buxton WILL be out for a long time.
  2. PDX Twin
    Kind of profiles more like a lefty Miguel Sano to me, though he's probably better in the outfield.
  3. PDX Twin
    This will be a tougher schedule than we have played in recent years. Maybe it's just the losing mentality of the last week, but I see lots of Ls when I look at it.
  4. PDX Twin
    I'm guessing #2.
  5. PDX Twin
    Sounds like the Twins need the season to be one month shorter. They are staggering toward the home stretch, not toward the finish line.
  6. PDX Twin
    Interesting. You are clearly ranking based on the expected ability to be the star, but I expect if the Twins excel in September that looking back it will be someone from the lower part of your list or even not on the list who will be regarded as crucial. Getting key production from unexpected places is often as (or more) important than the big guns doing what we expect them to do. Eddie in the postseason last year is a good example. I'd say that if Bundy and Archer (and/or whoever returns from injury to replace them) is at least as critical as the more lauded starters on your list. Sanchez and Urshela similarly can make a huge difference and, like Kepler, have higher ex-ante uncertainty than the hitters at the top of the list.
  7. PDX Twin
    One of the advantages of the relegation system. They'd be trying a lot harder if it meant staying in the majors next year.
  8. PDX Twin
    He lost me when the harassment allegations hit. Such allegations are rarely proven, but in my experience usually true. That his play since then has spiraled downward has made me less conflicted about disliking him.
  9. PDX Twin
    Thanks! Great news!
  10. PDX Twin
    Is there a post somewhere on which of the high picks signed? I've lost track.
  11. PDX Twin
    There are so many differences: (1) He is playing in a much more spacious park, where he won't get as many cheap extra-base hits. (2) He does not have a killer lineup surrounding him, where he is just one of many top hitters. (3) He does not have anyone banging on a can to tell him about curve balls. (4) He does not have Verlander and company to make sure that his offensive production leads to lots of wins. Unfortunately, he is not a Strat-o-Matic card that works the same regardless of environment.
  12. PDX Twin
    Beloit has been the Sky Carp all season. Did they change to something else last night?
  13. PDX Twin
    Will Toronto be missing any non-vaccinated players? Or does that just go one way?
  14. PDX Twin
    And how embarrassing that they all seem to have worn the same dress.
  15. PDX Twin
    Of all the news on the site today, surely this is the one that moves the needle for TD!
  16. PDX Twin
    I agree, assuming that Lopez doesn't follow almost all other Twins pitchers to the IL for most of his time here.
  17. PDX Twin
    It would help if our BP understood the letters to mean bullpen rather than batting practice,,,
  18. PDX Twin
    I'm not buying for 2022 at the deadline. One or two patches will not make this team into a championship contender. We are better than, say, Pittsburgh, but our results against New York, Houston, and the Dodgers are telling a true story. The Twins are good enough to win some games and beat poor teams more often than that, but not good enough to win big games against top competition. Don't give up anything of value to try to salvage something from 2022. If you can make a trade using something with limited value going forward (Sano, perhaps Kepler, redundant youngsters), to get something useful in 2023 and 2024, then do it. Otherwise, not for me.
  19. PDX Twin
    But then, the algorithms didn't figure in that the Twins are exceedingly proficient at stranding multiple runners who get on with no outs!
  20. PDX Twin
    The team looks a little tired. And, quite honestly, I'm a little tired of them too. They need someone or something to get them pumped up. (Apparently two walk-off wins did not do the trick.) I don't know what the answer is, but they have 2-3 of these really "blah" games every week.
  21. PDX Twin
    Why is it that I'm not seeing a dozen posts saying "Free Jake Cave"? ? If ANYONE else had reached base in 41 (41!) straight games at AAA, this site would be indignant with rage at him not being promoted.
  22. PDX Twin
    Have they increased sacrifice bunts as well? I wish that the Twins would develop that skill better as players come through the system.
  23. PDX Twin
    Here's the corresponding table for Arraez: He has added 1.57 estimated wins for the Twins. What the statistic says is that Correa's hits this season have not come at times that significantly increased the chances of a Twins' win, but Arraez's have. I generally agree with you on a lot of the sabrmetric stuff, but I long thought that a measure like WPA would be an appropriate one for looking at clutch hitting even before anyone published it.
  24. PDX Twin
    I wondered about Correa coming up big because it seems to me that he has gotten a lot of hits where they didn't matter much and made a lot of outs when hits would have been crucial. He's hit some homeruns and has an average over .300, but how much has he helped the team win? It may be out of favor with others, but I've always like the "Win Probability Added" at FanGraphs. Here's what the numbers say: This season his plate appearances have given the Twins 0.24 LESS expected wins, despite his nice statistics. He has not been a WPA machine since his first two years. That seems like a pretty expensive proposition for a mid-market team. I wonder if that is one reason why he didn't get the kind of long-term contract offers that he wanted/expected?
  25. PDX Twin
    As always, it depends on the return (for me). There are many things that I want, but only a few that I want given what they would cost.
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