PDX Twin

I'd be one who would be interested in an occasional contribution. But I don't consider myself to be any kind of baseball expert and my knowledge of the players around the league and in the Twins' system is not at the level of the main contributors, so I'm not sure what role I could fill. I have on a couple of occasions started a thread in the forum section, but they have typically disappeared from the main page quickly as there were other forum entries getting comments and it appears that only the 5 or so more recently commented articles and forum posts stay there. That has discouraged me from using that forum (pun intended?) to share my thoughts. Maybe excluding articles that are already on the main page from the forum section would allow independent contributions that are presented there to flourish better?

And Darvish has been paying zero income tax in Texas. Seattle, Texas, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Miami could offer this advantage.

Is that because we think Ohtani is our savior?

I wonder if his very conspicuous and very costly error in Yankee Stadium had an outsized influence. Is the voting group NY-heavy? Would more voters have been watching that game? (I admit to not knowing exactly who votes on these finalists.)

And, of course, the Twins can keep the extra early-year money in the bank to be able to afford the later years. With an on-going, long-term organization, there is no reason why paying salaries that are 50-52% of revenues has to happen *every* year ... just on average. We are below this year (and probably have been for the last few) and should expect to be above that percentage as our currently-cheap prospects become expensive.

I agree that Portland will never adequately support an MLB franchise. They can get 20K out to see basketball and soccer games 20-40 times a year, but no chance of getting 30-40K to see baseball 80 times a year. And it seems like Oakland and Tampa Bay are already foundering in a death spiral, with Miami not too far above them. So if there were a market ready for a franchise there are several available without expansion. Without meaningful revenue sharing, I can't see the economics of expansion working out. They would just be adding two more teams at the poverty line as feeders and victims for the big-money teams. This might be very attractive to the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs though. Two more teams to divide up the available young stars more thinly so that there is less competition for them and more young players being groomed as their next free agent stars. Maybe that's why it's being considered ...

When is the Twins' window? Teams other than the rich boys have to plan for a cycle if they want to win championships. Down-cycles bring high draft picks, which are then the core of the up-cycle contenders. Of the four teams still alive for the championship this year, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees are rich and can buy all the toys all the time. The Astros (and the Nationals had they made it) are up-cycle teams who used a few terrible years with high draft choices to build the core of an excellent team that matured all at once. Their window is now. When is the Twins' window? As has been discussed here at length, the Twins will struggle to hold onto all of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, etc. I see the Twins' window as opening in 2019 and lasting until about 2021, extended possibly by one year on either side. So I evaluate any transactions based on how they affect the likely quality of the team over the five-year period 2018-22. This period would correspond to Dozier's potential remaining career if re-signed. Given a bumpy first year (as nearly all of our rookies have), Gordon starts contributing maybe in 2020 and Lewis maybe at the end of the window. How do we get to the point that Gordon, then Lewis, are actually good? It seems like we have an incumbent who fits perfectly: excellent in 2018 and 2019, and probably a solid contributor (if not the team's MVP) in 2020 and couple of years beyond. Plus, he is the team's clubhouse leader (something that I think is very important but that we, as outsiders, don't know much about) and a very popular player. The same glut of great secondbasemen that drove down the trade prospects is also going to moderate his salary options as a free agent. I think they can sign him to a reasonable 4-5-year contract (counting 2018) and that they should. One more thing. We have been told for years that the money is there if the opportunity arises. Well, this is the opportunity. As we swing up the cycle, so does the marginal benefit of additional salary commitment. The Twins should be looking to increase the salary budget to take advantage of their window. For me, the key is to avoid (when they can) the long-term commitments like those that the Tigers gave to Cabrera (30m+) and Zimmerman (25m), which will eat up budget over the next 5 years of mediocrity. Good luck to the Twins in finding the sweet spot that brings in enough star power to contend for titles through the window without threatening bankruptcy if we fall short!

And ... he had 5 RBIs and 3 runs scored in 10 AB! That works out to 300 RBIs and 180 RS over 600 AB.

Kepler seems like he's quite similar to Dozier (at the time they signed him to a medium-term deal) in terms of development and promise. That one worked out quite well, though Dozier was far from an established player at the time he signed. I'd put a reasonable but generous offer on the table for Kepler sometime in the next 18 months and see if they can keep him in Minnesota for another half-decade.

Judge is a big target. How come our pitchers keep missing him?

Game over.

Except they have a lights-out bullpen. Win probability (adjusted for Twins/Yankees) went from 1% to 5%, and back to 1% in that inning.

Just wanted to make sure Dozier got the RBis...

Dozier is spending a lot of time on the ground tonight.

Yup. Every once in a while, a bad call goes OUR way! (But notice it's not in a close game where it would actually be useful.)

If the home-plate dirt is going to be shaped like home plate, I think the pitching dirt should be rectangular like the pitching rubber.

"@Twins' DJ Dozier spit a few rhymes after a win over Toronto" Really? DJ Dozier? That goes back decades to when I watched pointy-ball and the Vikings!

Wow .. . Just wow.

Clutch hit for Kepler.

BS. Statistically and exclamatorily...

Not a bad choice. I have a 2009 Kestrel mourvedre (Prosser, WA in the Yakima Valley). Really nice wine at its drinking peak!

Has Trevor May retired and I didn't hear about it? Or has everyone just forgotten about him in the discussion of next year's rotation?

Don't forget Tyler Jay...

Yup. Tied the ML record and set a new AL record!

Must wear him out before the post-season!