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EGFTShaw

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Everything posted by EGFTShaw

  1. EGFTShaw
    First, as some have pointed out, you could consider them in a rebuild already. Second, I am not making any moves until I see what is happening leading into July. You're keeping Gallo, (I guess you have to since it is a one-year deal), and trading Gray. I am not considering trading Gray until July. I believe the Kids Are Alright. Nothing against thinking about trading Kepler, (I like Max and the top-notch D, but at some point, when you're loaded with younger talent you need to think about what you can do and if he will ever improve as a hitter. You are not getting a near major league ready prospect back though because of his hitting. But maybe it is a Duran type one that blossoms in a couple of years. Polanco, my prediction this is an up year for him, (he on/off binary like a Swiss clock) may net you a better prospect at the trade deadline. Maybe Gallo figures it out this year with the Twins and moves above the Mendoza line and is a valuable option to flip at the trade deadline if we are out of it. But I suspect that these Twins, that everyone seems so down on, as the currently constructed, are in the hunt for the Central lead if not leading it, when the trade deadline rolls around. They aren't constructed to be a WS winner, may be not even a playoff series winner, (unless a pitcher or two steps up with the mentality to be that Guy), but I do think they have a shot at the Central Crown.
  2. EGFTShaw
    Hypothetically and then I’ll shout it down easily. save your $$s, you’ll have more next offseason, and try for OhtanI skip next year too and try for Soto the following year. But if you had a hard cap on C4, you’re not getting in the discussion with either of those regardless of where they want to play. you can easily get people to come to the Twins, BUT you are going to have to pay them what they are worth and for the first one probably above that to get the ball rolling for the future. do you want to win championships or do you want to maximize your revenue year after year. play it safe and invest in a savings account or venture into the investments that may cause you to lose money but also a greater chance of hitting the jackpot no SP out there who might be available moves the needle enough. I think we have good pitchers in the pipe and on staff that maybe get a couple of dependable RPs to supplement j like Lopez, but he would be a 3rd SP and we have a bunch of 3s. With maybe one or two that might become a #2 wand with the right mentality a #1
  3. EGFTShaw
    Definitely levels, maybe 7 as Dante once proposed?, of Evil Empires, but NYY will also be top, or bottom depending how you view it, for me.
  4. EGFTShaw
    All of us our speculating out our proverbial frozen off season...ears...(LOL. Got it keep it SFW.) 1) did the Twins have a hard cap they could not go above? (High probability) 2) did C4 really not want to come back to the Twins? (Waffle House probability) 3) did C4 want to optimize his chance of a WS (I suggest No based on the SFG signing) 4) Would Boras not reach back to the Twins? (Extremely low possibility as he would want to drive the prices as he could and having 2 teams interested is better than one) I am just glad it wasn't my one and only True Evil Empire, (the NYY), that got C4. And the NYM spending like they are spending is a great Eye Poke to the NYY. Actually, surprised the Friars of SD did not sign C4 so they could have an infield line up of all SSs. ?
  5. EGFTShaw
    Never say Never, but at what cost would Mateo elicit?
  6. EGFTShaw
    At first I thought JG was a RH and thought: ok we have 2 good to great defensive outfielders combining to be one OK hitter. but then I learned he was LH. my head still hurts from the face palming I can honestly say, with 110% conviction, that I didn’t see this signing coming and with 120% confidence I would not have made it. SMH
  7. EGFTShaw
    Despite the injuries and lack of games played and playing hurt; Buxton outperformed his contract. Even at its top value of $15M/yr it is not a high-priced contract. C4 if you take his contract solely as face value, ($$s and Years), then you are missing at least 50% of what C4 brings to the table. Great article over on (cough cough since I am not a big fan of this site any more) ESPN about the long-term value that C4 will bring even as his playing declines. "According to the study, the average cost for a family of four attending an MLB game is now $204.76. That price however does not only include four tickets, but also two beers, two sodas, four hot dogs, and parking." Increased ticket sales x some % x $205 for family of 4 = C4 Ticket sales value. Increased tales of jerseys & merch. Increased TV revenue contract. That's the easy stuff. One of the most dialed and cerebral players in the league. All that young talent the Twins have, you have a built-in extra bench coach. He was worth 1 Win simply by telling, I think it was Ober, what to pitch to a single guy which led to the out. I think it won the game for the Twins. Proof that the Twins would pay for a FA that is worthy of their small market share $$s. Nats had to do this, although not a small market but they were as the Expos, when they signed Jayson Werth for more than anyone in the league expected. That got them Mad Max. That said, C4 is a Giant for the next 13 years or until he allows himself to be traded. Let's take what we got, as you have pointed out, suck it up like we do when the Winds of January come howling out of the Arctic Circle and go defy expectations and do something.
  8. EGFTShaw
    Disagree. Understand the perspective though and the feelings behind it. But we are not in a horrible situation. 1) even given our below league average budget, we are cash flush. Normally we sit with maybe $20M to work with. More is coming off in the next year or two. So we could go after high quality FAs again next year. and not bust our below league average budget. 2) we have a nice crop, maybe not great because they have not shown it yet, of talent. Never underestimate the competitiveness of athletes. Ozzie did and eventually called the Piranhas as continued to beat the Pale Hose year in and year out. 3) we have lived with far worse, (and he did a decent job his first session and cleaned up some of the mess in his second session), Terry Ryan. Lastly, 100 agree with your last statement. My first inclination was to go 10yrs and $342-$345M for C4. But given the poll yesterday and reading another article about the C4 contract and value, I think we should have gone 13yrs and $361M, or $1M more than the rest. This might have been a limit by the owners, but we will never know. But I think we had a chance to do something really special.
  9. EGFTShaw
    It must include the interest rate of the CD. We can't undersell our money when it comes to CDs...LOL
  10. EGFTShaw
    Kepler & Polanco I'm OK with your given your overall thought process. But Maeda & Mahle contradict the idea of giving them a chance. Maeda was top notch in 2020. Mahle has been predicted to be a true #1. If we are punting, given them a chance and see what happens near the trade deadline. You have to figure in the Twin's luck in your trading of M&M, (pitching version (TM)), and our luck would be that they turn into the pitching equivalent of David Ortiz. I think as Nick mentioned, we raised our floor. Our ceiling is not the past 2 years (losing records), but maybe 85-88 wins. If anyone breaks through it goes up. And in the Central division, 88 might just win it.
  11. EGFTShaw
    Well, there are least 2 of us...optimists. 1) ✔️ Just not sure who. NOT a DH only type of guy. We have plenty of bats to fill that role. 2) ?? (best I can find for a waffle...) Pagan has to EARN his spot. Put talent into practice and we will see. 3) Constellation prize or Consolation prize. Maybe both. Our eyes were in the skies for C4 so a Consolation Constellation prize. I want to like DS, but I can't bring myself to pay that much for him 4) ✔️✔️✔️?? (means I agree Strongly) Even if this person sucks/tanks, at least we have options. I like Farmer as Super Ute 5)??
  12. EGFTShaw
    It was at this time. C4 wasn't signed until late spring. Urshela wasn't obtained until late spring. At this time a year ago, we had signed Buxton to extension and the "hot" prospect (reclamation league), Bundy.
  13. EGFTShaw
    They do use him as Buxton's backup. But that also takes away a top notch RF-er. The choice I suspect has been Celestino vs Kepler's replacement as for who adds the best opportunity
  14. EGFTShaw
    Correct, More so with Dansby than Correa, you absolutely have to have an upper limit you will not exceed. I think the same is true of Rodon. Rodon isn't Mad Max Scherzer or Justin Time Verlander. Heck he isn't Jacob "This Pitch Has Been" DeGrom-ed. All for them getting what they can, but we have to have a set price/year limit on these two.
  15. EGFTShaw
    Thank Odin for some non-ChickenLittleSkyIsFalling/Fallen rhetoric. We are better off at this point this year than last. Far better. Don't overhype the Central Division foes. They aren't that good, and we aren't that bad. I am not sure what I will do with the money at this point. Maybe Swanson? Maybe Rodon? Or with more coming off our books next year, save for next year. There is no need to sell off what we have and given the level of experience and low-vs-high value of who may be of interest we are not getting back Top Shelf prospects. We have the #5 pick. You can't trade the pick, but as we found out this past year, you can trade the player from that pick. The expectations are right where they need to be for a team to excel. To revisit the oft mentioned Ace. The Ace does NOT need to be lights out every night, swing-n-miss, lowest ERA since forever kind of guy. The Ace can be Jack Morris. The Bulldog so stubborn he caused Tom Kelly to say, "its just another game" when referencing Game 7 of the World Series when leaving in his starting pitcher. It seems so many are perpetually stuck in a Doom and Gloom world. Would I have liked to have C4 sign with us? Damn straight. Would I have liked for a top line pitcher to be signed, absolutely. But damn it is not the end of the world.
  16. EGFTShaw
    Why yes Doc Bauer, by your command here you go...✔️ ?
  17. EGFTShaw
    So, has anyone offered to be your Huckleberry Mr Birkleberry? ? (Val Kilmer reference) That said, aside from communicating better about what you meant by contend, should have been Win the AL since it does go through Houston, but not only Houston. Seattle took a step forward. Yankees are always the Yankees. And you can never count out Tampa. But I want to see what our guys can do. I think there is some excitement in line with these younger players. I want to see AK with a full HEALTHY season. I want to see RL with a full Healthy season. I want to see BB with a full HEALTHY SEASON. (If this happens, MVP votes will follow) I want to see if Ryan takes the next step. I want to see if Lopez regains his form. I want to see if Pagan can live up to 80% of the HyperDrool people have had over his skill set. I want to see Maeda pitch again like he did in 2020. There is a LOT to like. I do think this teams needs a Hrbek/Cuddyer type character...a guy who keeps everyone loose.
  18. EGFTShaw
    NEVER....??
  19. EGFTShaw
    I get the contract value opinion completely but using the value system for WAR it is $8M per 1 WAR. C4 is worth 4-5+ WAR and he has at least up to age 34 season I think of being in the range. Again, I base this on the only player I could find that is truly similar physically and played the same position. Cal Ripkin Jr. Future predictions are a crap shoot, but you have to still roll the dice. 4 WAR = $32M today. 5 WAR = $40M today. So $35M/year is I think spot on. I would be hesitant to give him the extra 3 years. We don't need to worry about paying any tax on spending...LOL...unless the Ghost of George Steinbrenner body snatches Joe Pohlad.? And no truer statement has been said on Twins Daily or anywhere else. "Twins FO will use the money as they see fit whether it's what we want."
  20. EGFTShaw
    Small Money Ball '23 MN Money Ball '23 From the Frozen Tundra of Target Field in November Ball. ?
  21. EGFTShaw
    Talking to a MLB fanatic friend last night. Same feeling. Now $285M wasn't going to get it done, and there is not much difference in a year when you talk an additional $7M. I know the perspective, but I figured it was doable alone on ticket sales, new TV contract and merchandising and had not even figured in the $100M mentioned above from the league deals. $342-$350M for 10 years should have been the offer, not $285M and definitely not UNDER $300M.
  22. EGFTShaw
    I must be BORED...? Blow up the team? What's there to blow up? You could trade a couple of pieces, but most of the pieces haven't had a chance to prove themselves and make the team worth blowing up. Great article over on The Athletic regarding the value of C4's contract to SFG. A lot of flames from SFG fans because of the remarks about BCrawford. But that dismisses the value of C4 now. Every one claims he will decline in 2-3 years...I see more Cal Ripken, Jr than I do anyone else. Solid, smart, strong arm, good hitter. I'm on record saying I like our youth players and let them play to see how good they are. I find it amusing how many people state things as facts, X will happen...or Y will occur. But none of us can see the future. No one, and I repeat NO ONE saw C4 coming here for one year. No one saw the MN Twins setting the HR record for the year. I just can't fathom the negativity. It's Rocco's fault. It's the Front Office fault. It's the Owner's fault. He will never be more than X WAR. He will be injured more than he is healthy...and so on.
  23. EGFTShaw
    Pragmatic. I've moved on. I think he missed a Golden Opportunity, but I am biased. Let's see next up on the plan.
  24. EGFTShaw
    it's not Rocco in this case, although he hires the coaches. Our last good hitting coach left after the Year of the Bomba Squad. Our pitching coach was good for a couple of years and then left to greener bucks pasture at the college level. I can't coach baseball, but I guarantee you I could have lifted Shaq's FT average by 10 percentage points over 1 summer. That's the kind of coaching, make our players better. You read about it with certain players, yet you can see countless individuals across all sports who do not improve. we may disagree on the responsibility, but we agree on that it needs to be accomplished. ?
  25. EGFTShaw
    LOL - now THAT would be a sight to behold topping Hrbek stealing 2nd base. ?
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