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EGFTShaw

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Everything posted by EGFTShaw

  1. EGFTShaw
    But then again you did Heat things up on the cold Hot Stove here in Twinkie land... Major props for that. BTV actually does a pretty good job in estimating trade values, but as with all simulators certain things will be off. If you pop on the BTV site look around where they evaluate actual trades against their model. If nothing else, it is a pretty interesting assessment. Pull Lee and one of Keplar/Polanco out of that mix and I think it is more balanced and maybe the Twins toss in some A level talent that the Marlins always seem to develop in to Trade Gold. If I was trading Kepler or Polanco, I would look at this aspect: Which one do I keep that provides me with the best insurance against injury. I think that's Kepler. I love Polanco a lot, but either he or Farmer goes. Polanco could easily become a better hitting and definitely step into a starting role than Farmer. We have outfield depth as well, but no similar comparison at the moment to the Farmer/Polanco dynamic. This has to be the first Hot Stove season in a very long time where I am bored. The core of this team is good, very good I think. If we can flip some of our duplicating talent for another PLopez type, (a pitcher that moves into the top two spots), then great. I don't want to trade for a number 4 or 5, I would rather we use our pipeline for that. We can't simply think of this next year, but I want us to dominate the Central for the next 5 years so that Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City are demoralized. *insert Dr Evil laugh*
  2. EGFTShaw
    The 😆was for the Lake Wobegon reference.
  3. EGFTShaw
    There is a difference between untouchable and most likely won't be traded. There is no on the Twins team right now who is the Best at their position. Duran comes close, but I could never imagine when a RP would ever be untouchable due to their volatile nature. If the right offer comes along to improve the Twins, then no one is untouchable. That said, players I wouldn't trade without a lot of consternation: WalkerJ RoyceL PabloL JRyan JDuran Next would be: BrooksL EJulien Wallner AK-19 And there still are some very good players on the Twins team. But IMHO, there are no Untouchables.
  4. EGFTShaw
    I agree 107% with @Cory Engelhardt wrote. I see NO value in bringing in back of the end rotation guy. None. Use this for our top minor league pitchers. I understand the alleged, (and I say alleged because it is short sighted given the contracts the Twins have on the hooks after 24 and 25 seasons), rationale for downsizing our payroll, but we just finished with the best we have in over the past 20 years. IRON HOT STRIKE WHILE I don't know if there is a deal to be made, but if this notion of going after a backend guy is real and not a ruse, then the Twins are going to continue to be midlevel team and never advance out this self-imposed cage.
  5. EGFTShaw
    First comment: Whelp this got some people active on TD... 😆 Second comment: I am not in favor of trading Brooks Lee in general. Third comment: No one should be considered untouchable if the return is right. Well, the No Trade guys are I guess by definition untouchable. But if you have a change to improve your team, you make the deal. But as with any trade that is an attempt to foretell the future outcome, it is fraught with risk. As the Lopez/Arraez trade shows it can be a win/win and at this moment the Rogers/Paddock/et al trade at the moment can be a lose/lose. Note: It is trending towards a Twins win if Paddock contributes at a meaningful level. But go BIG or go HOME to the Oakland Las Vegas Athletics.
  6. EGFTShaw
    They are speculating Nola $150M/6yrs, Monty $150M/6yrs, Yamamoto $225M/9yrs, Snell $200M/7yrs, Imanaga $85M/5yrs, Rodriguez $82M/4yrs, LG $44M/2yrs, Stroman $44M/2yrs and SonnyG $90M/4yrs. Ponder away.
  7. EGFTShaw
    LG is what the Twins FO has done, even back beyond our current FO, is go cheap and hope to hit a HR. As a Twins fan, with a team set up to win, No Thanks. All indications are that SonnyG will leave, I am aware of that, as I stated in other articles when it comes to signing him its length/$$s conundrum. We are not going to pay for 4 years of SonnyG. 2-3 years perhaps. But if we are not spending $20-$25M to keep SonnyG, we sure as hell not getting the other pitchers since either the term of the contract will be too long or the AAV will be too high. Snell? If you think this, please share with all Twins Fans what you're smoking. Often, it is better the Devil you know, than the Devil you don't know. Hence spending the $$s on C4 AFTER we had him one year makes sense. If you 💖LG or any other Bet On Their Upside FA pitchers great, but 💖the from afar.
  8. EGFTShaw
    " Prior to his drop-off over the past couple seasons" Enough said. 👎👎
  9. EGFTShaw
    The difference, and it's a huge difference, is that SonnyG's has had an uptick since leaving NY and LG has gone in the opposite direction. Two Trends passing in the night.
  10. EGFTShaw
    A regressed SonnyG is still better than Wacha IMHO. Wacha is not a bad choice overall I guess if we have lost SonnyG.
  11. EGFTShaw
    The article I read about the payroll loan by the Padres is it is not unusual for MLB teams to do this. So I wouldn't read too much into it.
  12. EGFTShaw
    I'd put Gray at 30-35% chance of coming back. 10% is way too low. I think Maeda is about right. I'd like to see him back on a 1-2 year contract. Donnie Barrels: I am going lower. Not because I don't think he is worth it, just that if the keep Farmer, (for trading possibilities) there is also Polanco who could fill that SUtil role. This assumes that JP isn't traded. If you keep Polanco, excellent value, he can play 2nd, SS and 3rd. That means you don't have to worry about Donnie Barrels or KFarmer. It will be a very interesting, and in a positive way for once, this off season for the Twins. Good foundation, some key moving parts, luxury of having assets to trade from experienced to prospects to fill the needs.
  13. EGFTShaw
    Bingo. This sums it up perfectly with the addition of how the Twins think Gray will perform against: a) the other available FAs they are willing to sign b) other pitchers they are willing to trade for
  14. EGFTShaw
    FanGraphs has SonnyG at: 98-85 3.47ERA 3.57FIP 3.67xFIP Looking over these stats in FanGraphs, he looks to be a good 3.00-3.50 ERA and worth 2-4WAR. I agree 5 is an outlier until backed up by at LEAST 1 more season. But I'll take SonnyG at 2-4 over any of the currently available pitching FAs when you factor in the $$s. Rodon was the talk of the FA market last year. I reluctantly thought he might be a good addition, foolishly swayed by some articles I read, and look how that turned out. Rangers won the WS despite the lack of pitching from there big FA signing. I'd even bring Maeda back on 1yr deal of about $12-$15M. He pitched well down the stretch and it is the second season after a elbow procedure that a pitcher gets back to normal. Thank God we didn't spend on Thor last year on a prove it deal.
  15. EGFTShaw
    I am loathe, and that isn't even strong enough word, to venture into the FA market with the exception of our FAs. I know a lot of people are high on a couple of FAs out there, Jordan or Eduardo who seem to fascinate many, I've read rankings of these pitchers in a couple of different articles, and I am not enamored. I'd rather go with our youngsters vs any of the non-Twins FAs out there. We seemed to be very shortsighted when it comes to the Twins having luck signing FA pitchers. I find it amusing that everyone is assuming that Gray will regress, and other pitchers will magically improve. Of course, Gray's HR rate will regress but he has been a 3.00-3.50 ERA pitcher. Also don't necessarily make assumptions on the payroll. We would never have guessed that the Twins payroll would ever go over $150M, yet here we are. I more open to trading for a pitcher than signing one of the non-Twin FA pitchers. But even that has been mixed over the years. So, I am clearly in the SonnyG house even if it is for more $$s. I stated in another article, that the Twins and Gray will have to compromise between length and $$s. I think the owners and the FO will make the best decision for the Twins to compete this year.
  16. EGFTShaw
    The "expert" talking heads have Gray pegged around 3yr $20-24M/year. So that's the baseline in the talks with Gray. If it's not about the money, then he should at least listen to any 2-3yr offers the Twins have. Actually, I am comfortable with Gray get paid this baseline by the Twins. But the crap shoot is what is Gray thinking about his longevity of staying in the game. Let's say it's 2 more years, then I would up the annual to him and add some bonuses. He has been nothing but a class act and I think the work ethic that Pablo and SonnyG exhibit will go a long way in helping our younger pitchers develop a good WE too.
  17. EGFTShaw
    Technically not a sophomore until accrues 162 games... 😁
  18. EGFTShaw
    Surprise, Surprise, I agree with a post on Twins Daily... Then I scrolled back up and realized who wrote it. Sign JC and roll the dice with BE. It's good to have difficult decisions, well usually.
  19. EGFTShaw
    I'd love to see a top to bottom assessment of our pitching prospects down on the farm. This one was great. Maybe even just a list/ranking of their potential and estimated debut. I never heard of David Festa(sp?) until late this year. 👍👍For this article
  20. EGFTShaw
    Wise Old Owl: "Three" LOL - ripping off the Tootsie Pop commercial
  21. EGFTShaw
    Without trying to offend anyone, the article title is completely misleading. JRyan is entering his 3rd full year. He messed up not revealing his injury, but what competitive athlete hasn't done that. He works hard at improving, as is at Driveline now with Pablo. He is more than 4-5. He will be at least a 2. Why do I say this, go back to last season when Rocco wanted to pull him out of his best game and Joe had the same fire you see from other really good pitchers. It is a drive. An attitude. So, let's try to make our article titles better have a bit more respect for the intelligence of the Twins Daily Followers.
  22. EGFTShaw
    I see Eduardo being league average defensively and plus offensively. im not trading Polanco just to trade Polanco. If we let Farmer go Polanco becomes Farmer but with a better bat.
  23. EGFTShaw
    He might slide into the MAT role which may be the 5th OF depending on Buxtons health and AM
  24. EGFTShaw
    I did go undercover and get the real deal from the FO...
  25. EGFTShaw
    I am not betting against our FO creativity. I am not betting on them doing it early either. So, us fans get to lament, (maybe they have a deal with Twins Daily for content writing material 😁), for most of the winter off season. That said, even with the spike in 2025, we are set up for the next maybe 5-6 years pretty nicely. I am still in Camp SonnyG, (wasn't this an orange juice wannabee drink years ago), over other pitchers except maybe Snell is, I guess the correct term is Will Be, out of our price range. SonnyG may even too pricey that we have to settle for a more generic orange drink.
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