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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Interesting move by Sinclair to try to buy back Diamond Sports for pennies on the dollar. That's one way to finance a purchase - spin off the companies into a separate company, saddle them with the debt you used to finance the purchase, declare bankruptcy and buy back the rights for a fraction of the initial cost. The article also mentioned they want to cut their payments to the NBA by 20%. Sinclair Broadcasting wants to scoop up Diamond Sports: sources (nypost.com) Sinclair owns WUCW 23 in Minneapolis.
  2. DJL44
    I think Tom Hanson from Anoka is available.
  3. DJL44
    I don't think anyone is trying to build a team 100% out of free agency. If teams don't plan for the average, then, on average, they're going to be disappointed. Planning for all of your free agent bets to work out is a good way to lose your job.
  4. DJL44
    That's a better idea if you're 29 and not if you're 34 and coming off the best year of your career. I don't understand why people think Gray would want a cheap player option. That would only happen if he wanted to opt out and pursue a higher contract later. 36 year old pitchers are not typically the ones who want to opt out. If he wanted to "opt out" and retire, he can always retire. Nobody can be forced to play major league baseball against their will. It's an employment contract, not slavery.
  5. DJL44
    There's only 2 ways to look at this: 1) The teams know that some players will bust and are content to get the average production per dollar that they're getting out of free agency. 2) The people who run teams are absolute morons who can't properly price players and get fleeced all the time by agents. Not every team has the same $$/value calculations. Large market team make more marginal revenue per additional win. Playoff teams make more money per additional win than rebuilding teams. The Fangraphs number is an aggregate that is an extravagance for the Athletics and a bargain for the Mets. Still, prices are set by the market and Fangraphs is just reporting the market value.
  6. DJL44
    Trent Grisham would be a great fit for the Twins at that price. I don't think he would actually be non-tendered.
  7. DJL44
    Won't be much to write about on Twins Daily if that's how the offseason works out.
  8. DJL44
    But what is an overpay? The last 3 seasons he's been worth $42M, $19M and $20M. If you like pitcher wins he's 2nd among active pitchers his age (to Gerrit Cole). I know he's getting older but the simplest projections would have him at least $30M projected value for 2024. If you knock 20% off for age every year that makes it a 3 year $73M contract. Someone will probably offer him 4 years $80M and that seems fair. Yu Darvish got a 6 year $108M contract and he was older than Gray is now. I'd agree that anything over $108M is an overpay for Sonny Gray.
  9. DJL44
    Literally anywhere else. He's a no-brainer for every team in baseball at 1 year $20M.
  10. DJL44
    Even then I think he can do better than $20M on a 1 year deal.
  11. DJL44
    MLB is often the highest rated show on summer evenings, even with the restrictions we see due to lack of access. Improving access will improve ratings. Sports also draws higher ad revenue because people are less likely to skip the ads. If the going ad rate for the Twins is bad then I don't know how the other shows on television make any money.
  12. DJL44
    MLB team has financial difficulties: issue a press release or at least leak it to a reporter MLB team makes a lot of money: No comment There is a history of ownership lying to the press about their finances, always crying poor.
  13. DJL44
    There's a bias in what stories show up in the newspaper. Why did that financial tidbit make it into the news but you never see stories showing that some team was massively profitable unless they have to disclose it publicly (like Atlanta 2022)?
  14. DJL44
    This I disagree with. He's 26 and has never had a 6 inning start in his entire career. It's not going to happen. Due to his past injury history his career is more likely to be over at age 30 than it is for him to be a bulk starter. Use him now before his arm falls off completely.
  15. DJL44
    The posting fee doesn't count toward the luxury tax which makes guys like this more valuable to teams paying the luxury tax.
  16. DJL44
    Especially when the alternative is more Cole Sands innings in the big leagues. If you're going to use a cheap guy in low leverage relief use the highest upside guy you have.
  17. DJL44
    Baseball teams get to be extra profitable during the "rebuild" when they dump expensive players and go with the cheap youngsters. The time to spend and be less profitable is when you're contending.
  18. DJL44
    Agreed on Ohtani. Not only is he the best player in baseball he's also the most marketable player in baseball by a large margin. He gains interest from around the world. He's a DH to help him pitch, not because he's a terrible fielder. If he never pitches again he's probably a RF/1B as good as Bryce Harper. Ultimately I think he's worth more marginal revenue to the Yankees or Dodgers than he is to the Twins so the Twins don't have a real chance to obtain him. I think the Twins brought in Carlos Correa to be one of those star players that helps push them to becoming a contender. I don't see them spending big on Correa to contend and then deciding to pull back when it actually worked. They can pull back on spending during the next rebuild and make more profit then.
  19. DJL44
    The Twins are pretty good at converting starters to relievers. I'd like to see them try that more often with free agents who have done poorly in the rotation but might have something to unlock in the bullpen. The Orioles were successful doing that with Jorge Lopez and then they dealt him to the Twins for a pretty nice prospect haul. Grab a few guys who are free agent starters with an ERA around 5 and move them to the bullpen in AAA. If you can make 1 Brock Stewart every year it will more than pay for itself. Example names: Chris Flexen, Jose Urena, Luke Weaver, Justin Dunn, Austin Voth, Julio Teheran, Zach Davies
  20. DJL44
    I actually hope he's in the bullpen as soon as possible. At age 26 there's no reason to spend any more time on development or worrying about service time. If he's healthy let him pitch in the big leagues.
  21. DJL44
    I wouldn't count on Mahle at all in 2024. He's had shoulder injuries in addition to the elbow. They might get 5 innings out of Mahle like they did with Paddack.
  22. DJL44
    Here's what I see as the worst case scenario: Twins: "Hey Bally's, we know you barely made money at $55M last season. Would you pay $50M this year?" Bally's: "Sure. We'll make $5M." Better Twins: "Hey Bally's, would you still pay us $30M to carry games even if we drop the streaming blackouts? You've also got to lower your cost to the cable companies so they all buy your channel." Bally's: "Sure, we can make money at that level even if we aren't exclusive." Best Twins: "Hey Channel 45, would you carry our games? We'll produce the ads in-house and make all that money ourselves." Channel 45: "Sure, we would love the increased audience going into our evening newscast."
  23. DJL44
    If they're not in on Bellinger then I expect the other players (Taylor, Kiermaier, Bader) to be available later. There won't be a run on mediocre CF until the premium guys sign.
  24. DJL44
    That's if the next TV contract pays $0 a year which is a ridiculous assumption. If the contract drops in half (which is very pessimistic) then they're down $5-6M in payroll. That's a nothing burger.
  25. DJL44
    True, but there's also little incentive to move quickly on that this offseason.
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