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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    There have been two first-ballot Hall of Fame catchers: Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez. Not Berra, Carter, Fisk, Campanella or Piazza. It's no snub for Mauer to have to wait a couple years.
  2. DJL44
    Counterpoint - he's probably never going to be able to win a spot at 2B, 3B or LF as an everyday player but moving him around lets you get his bat in the lineup.
  3. DJL44
    That hasn't been the standard for the Hall of Fame since about 1946.
  4. DJL44
    Jealousy is not a good look for most people.
  5. DJL44
    Julien is not especially young for a prospect. I don't think he'll win a spot at 2B long-term for this team with all the other infielders in the system but it might make him the best trade bait to keep playing him there. I hope they have some good decisions to make next offseason about where to put Lewis, Julien, Martin, Miranda and Kirilloff to get them all in the lineup.
  6. DJL44
    Pizza Ranch works in a pinch
  7. DJL44
    He's good enough to start a playoff game. That's an excellent starter.
  8. DJL44
    Go look through what pitchers are quoted as throwing at the draft and check in to see their velocity 3 years later. Draft velocity will almost always be higher.
  9. DJL44
    This happens routinely. It is one thing to light up a radar gun at a scouting combine and another thing entirely to be able to locate with that velocity for an entire season.
  10. DJL44
    A 43% chance of getting an elite arm in the 2nd round of the draft is well worth the risk.
  11. DJL44
    Read this article and then try not to root for him.
  12. DJL44
    Which one of his parents do you suggest he disrespect?
  13. DJL44
    I think MLB trade values is ridiculously low with a $5.4M value on Woods-Richardson. We are in a world where Taijuan Walker just signed a 4 year $72M contract. That's what a #3 starter costs on the open market.
  14. DJL44
    Plenty of room left for development at age 22 and he's already good enough to pitch in the big leagues. Mid-rotation starters are incredibly valuable.
  15. DJL44
    Should have gone with the spinach and artichoke dip.
  16. DJL44
    Fangraphs put Hajjar as the Reds 28th best prospect and a 40 FV. I'm going to guess Prielipp gets a 50 FV tag. They don't really compare. Cade Povich got a 45 FV, he's closer to Prielipp. Cincinnati Reds Top 46 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
  17. DJL44
    Arraez hit his 95th percentile projection. You obviously don't want to bet that everyone will do that.
  18. DJL44
    Good post. I'll also add that Blast Motion and Rapsodo have allowed scouts to crosscheck their in-person observations with solid data. They don't have to put a 50 or 55 number on a breaking ball, they can measure how much it spins, how much it breaks and how well it gets located. They don't need to rely as much on in-game results because they have the raw performance data. The raw performance data is probably more reliable than watching a couple games here and there.
  19. DJL44
    I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.
  20. DJL44
    Rankings from baseballtradevalues.com 1) Lee $38.9M 2) Lewis $22.7M 3) Rodriguez $19.7M 4) Julien $13.8M 5) Salas $13.6M 6) Martin $7.5M 7) Wallner $7.3M 8) Prielipp $5.9M 9) Woods-Richardson $5.4M 10) Canterino $5.3M 11) Varland $5.2M 12) Raya $5.1M 13) Mercedes $4.6M 14) Festa $4.3M 15) Miller $3.9M 16) Henriquez $2.7M Everyone else is < $2.5M. I think they're low on Prielipp. They value a competitive balance pick at $6M and I'd definitely trade one of those for Prielipp, Woods-Richardson or Varland.
  21. DJL44
    What has Canterino proven, that he can get injured? Martin has proven that he can't play SS or hit well enough to get promoted to AAA. Wallner has proven he can't play outfield and can strike out a ton. Baseball teams are looking for ceiling in prospects. If they want certainty they can buy a free agent. I doubt you would find a GM who would trade Salas for Wallner or Canterino. That's the way I look at prospects - would I trade this guy for that guy. I would absolutely trade a lower ceiling AAA player for a high ceiling recent draft pick.
  22. DJL44
    I see people use "defensive WAR" and that's always a trigger for me that they're not using the information correctly. I honestly wish baseball reference would do away with the dWAR column because it is used wrong by almost everyone. If you want to look at how baseball reference views Miranda's defense you need to go to the columns that list Rtot and Rdrs. Rtot is his total zone defense which was -1 at 1B and -3 at 3B. Rdrs is defensive runs saved - a different metric - which lists Miranda at -6 at 1B and 0 at 3B. He has very little data to go on, but if you project out his numbers using Rtot/yr or Rds/yr you get one system saying he is average at first base but 15 runs below average at third, the other system says he's average at 3B and 12 runs below average at first. The truth is probably somewhere in between. It's very unusual for someone who is below average at 1B to be good at 3B. Miranda is likely to be 0 to 10 runs below average as a third baseman with +5 to -15 possible.
  23. DJL44
    Moving around the diamond totally ruined Harmon Killebrew's career. 😉
  24. DJL44
    Smoltz had a 98 MPH four seam fastball and a nasty 91 MPH splitter. Varland has neither of those. Are you thinking of Greg Maddux? Maddux didn't have huge velocity but his fastball had movement and he hit his spots better than anyone else in baseball. I agree there is more than velocity - movement, location and pitch sequencing are important - but velocity sure does help a lot.
  25. DJL44
    I found this rule of thumb elsewhere: For example, it is worth dropping AVG from .300 to .270 if your SLG goes from .400 to .415. This assumes you're still taking your walks.
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