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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Catchers are rarely elected on the first ballot. I believe only Ivan Rodriguez and Johnny Bench have been elected their first opportunity and Mauer is not as good as either of them. Yogi Berra didn't get elected his first ballot and neither did Carlton Fisk. The Hall of Fame has not inducted as many catchers as players at other positions. Mauer has a lot in common with Ted Simmons and it took Simmons nearly 30 years to get elected. Bill Freehan made 11 all-star teams and has a ring and he died without being elected. I feel like this quote was put into the article just to troll me. Relievers are pitchers and there are plenty of pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Most relievers who have been elected shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame because there are several starting pitchers better than them from the same era who haven't been elected. The only relievers who deserve induction based on the standards set for starting pitchers are Rivera, Wilhelm and perhaps Gossage. Eckersley deserves his honor because he was a damned good starting pitcher before he went to the bullpen. I'd much rather David Cone get honored than Billy Wagner because Cone was a much, much better pitcher. Relievers are the MOST overrepresented group in the Hall of Fame.
  2. DJL44
    Individual pitchers are pitching fewer innings, and it's showing up in less total WAR, but pitchers are accumulating more value on a per inning basis.
  3. DJL44
    The Twins are not and have never been close to losing money in any season, with the exception, perhaps, of 2020. If this business was losing money it wouldn't be increasing in value at a rate 2x faster than inflation. Nobody is asking the Twins to incur the highest luxury tax penalty like the Mets. I'm saying, don't starve the team of resources when you have a chance to win. That's what's happening in 2024. They're cutting back to protect (enhance?) profits when they could take a shot at the World Series.
  4. DJL44
    No, it means pitchers are getting more of the credit for run prevention and defense is getting less credit. MLB defenses have less to do now than ever before because balls in play are down so much. BTW - Nolan Ryan walked 6 batters per 9 innings in 1977. Speaking of defense, the defensive adjustment for Nola is pretty high. If you check his WAR on Fangraphs he's much more consistently good because they use xFIP and he gets 10% more WAR in his career. The Phillies have been a bad defensive team for several years.
  5. DJL44
    I guess we should. If there is outside confirmation by Forbes and Statista that the Twins are not producing revenue as expected by their market size then it leads to the conclusion that the Pohlads are bad at making money. That isn't unusual that the second generation doesn't perform as well as the generation that created the wealth in the first place. I don't know why fans (who are getting taxed to subsidize the team) should be punished because the Pohlads are bad businessmen. Announcing the payroll cuts at the beginning of the offseason before any tickets are sold is further evidence they're not very good at this. I guess we're all hosed until the Pohlads sell.
  6. DJL44
    If the Twins are going to compete on the cheap now they have to sell old and expensive for young and cheap. That means dealing Polanco for talent that hasn't been proven yet but has potential to improve the team.
  7. DJL44
    You are assuming they aren't actually generating that expected revenue based on market size. Why do you assume the Twins are mismanaging their financial position? Are the Pohlads bad at making money? The base assumption is that they are generating that kind of revenue and I'll continue to make that assumption until it is proven otherwise.
  8. DJL44
    I'm certainly up for spending less of my own money on the Twins and more on local charities. I would encourage others to divert their sports entertainment dollars to other more worthy pursuits.
  9. DJL44
    I also don't understand why they gave Buxton a big contract if they knew they never wanted to spend at the level of their market size. They decided to change the whole spending strategy overnight. This usually happens with a change in management. Someone mentioned the announcement as throwing "cold water" on the season ticket sales. The Twins are a mid-market team that gets special treatment as a revenue sharing recipient by MLB. They get extra draft picks and favorable compensation when signing and losing free agents. If the Twins start bringing in more revenue than the Cardinals, White Sox or Nationals they will lose this advantage. I'm not sure they want to maximize their revenue. I think they'd rather make sure they make at least $1 below the revenue sharing threshold. Tanking their local TV contract is a good way to keep that advantage. Announcing that they're cutting spending before any tickets are sold is another.
  10. DJL44
    I think it's far more likely that pitcher replacement level is higher than it has ever been in MLB history. Pitch velocity and spin are at all time maximums and every year sets a new record number of strikeouts. Every bullpen has multiple guys throwing in the upper 90s. Remember when pitchers like Livan Hernandez could carve out a career pitching to contact and throwing 89 MPH fastballs? That career no longer exists. Nola has a career K/9 of 10.0 and a K/BB of 4.26. That's elite in any era.
  11. DJL44
    Seven years spreads out the money so it keeps them below the luxury tax line. At $9M/WAR they're buying 19 WAR over 7 seasons. Over the previous 7 seasons he put up 30 WAR.
  12. DJL44
    I believe there are 4 spots open and Jordan Balazovic still has a roster spot despite being out of options.
  13. DJL44
    Aaron Nola is #1 in WAR among pitchers 30 and under (32.0) and 13th overall among active pitchers. He's 10 WAR ahead of the second-best pitcher 30 and under (Luis Castillo 22.3). If he's not "great" then great pitchers no longer exist in major league baseball.
  14. DJL44
    McGriff and Fernandez for Alomar and Carter happened. It happens rarely, but not never. Heck, Arraez for Lopez happened just last year.
  15. DJL44
    I would like to see if the Twins could convert Dakota Hudson to relief. He's a groundball pitcher with a sinking fastball (which they like in relievers) and he does a decent job avoiding the barrel of the bat. He has good fastball movement that might play up in relief if they can add a couple MPH. His slider is not good but more velocity could make it better. His curve gets batters to swing and miss but he doesn't use it very much. His numbers are solid the first time through the order (.667 OPS against) but horrible the 3rd time through (1.085 OPS against). He has an option remaining so the Twins can give him a major league contract and have him develop as a reliever in AAA. I think the Twins would retain his rights for 2025.
  16. DJL44
    I was thinking of Trent Grisham in San Diego. Gordon would replace Grisham for them at a lower salary. The Twins would get a better glove player at a higher cost.
  17. DJL44
    It all depends on the deal. Arizona is looking for a 3B. If they called and offered Corbin Carroll and Drey Jameson for Royce Lewis would you say no?
  18. DJL44
    Well said. Most prospects don't make the major leagues and most of the ones who make the major leagues don't make the All-Star team.
  19. DJL44
    Most of these non-tendered players were not scheduled for big arbitration awards. If the Twins were interested they could have paid cash to obtain them before the deadline and it would only cost a roster spot to keep them. Dakota Hudson is another name to add to the list of pitchers I'd try to convert to a reliever in AAA.
  20. DJL44
    The reason you don't see players like this get traded is losing that trade can end the career of a GM. If they trade Jenkins they absolutely must win that trade or Falvey will lose his job. If they keep Jenkins and something happens to him where he doesn't fulfill his potential they won't blame Falvey.
  21. DJL44
    Yes, the Midwest League MVP is the #11 prospect in the system. He's 19th on the MLB.com list.
  22. DJL44
    When they negotiated with Paddack he was still under team control. Woodruff is a free agent and he grew up in Mississippi. I doubt the Twins will offer the most attractive package.
  23. DJL44
    So, why would Woodruff pick the Twins and not the Dodgers?
  24. DJL44
    Shoulder surgery is a whole lot riskier than elbow ligament replacement with much more risk of a poor outcome.
  25. DJL44
    This is why the trade values on that website are weird. If I could trade one Jax for two of Festa (a pitcher with better stuff and starter upside already in AAA) I would make that trade every day.
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