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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I don't think they will get more steals out of the players who haven't stolen bases in the past but adding Lewis and Martin will help.
  2. DJL44
    Not to mention the Twins previous TV contract was well below average in MLB Let’s Update the Estimated Local TV Revenue for MLB Teams | FanGraphs Baseball I don't think this is an issue as much as it is an opportunity. The downside is being overestimated and the upside is being minimized. The Twins WILL HAVE A TV CONTRACT next summer and it will make them between 75% and 150% of their previous contract.
  3. DJL44
    Do people realize $1M is almost as little as you can possibly pay a player? The league minimum is $740,000.
  4. DJL44
    The Twins can't afford the latter and even having Duran didn't help them advance past the 2nd round this year. One relief pitcher cannot carry a team in the postseason, they just don't pitch enough innings to have that kind of impact.
  5. DJL44
    I'm with you on reliever WAR, it significantly overrates relievers compared to starting pitchers. Pagan might not be closing out the game, but they're still going to use him (or someone like him) just like the Phillies have had to lean on Jeff Hoffman to get them through close playoff games. Meanwhile 2023 All-Star Craig Kimbrel has been awful. If paying a premium for 60 regular season innings doesn't make sense, it makes even less sense for 3 postseason innings. The best pitcher is often someone the batter hasn't seen before. The Twins strategy of turning their unused starters (Maeda, Varland, Paddack) into relief help was effective.
  6. DJL44
    BTW - Varland as a reliever had a 1.50 RA, 12.8 K/9 and 17.00 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. His fastball was in the upper 90s and his breaking stuff improved substantially. He was dominant.
  7. DJL44
    Buy low, sell high. The time to buy is now.
  8. DJL44
    Not the exact same results, but within a win or two. Duran is definitely better than Pagan or Varland but not enough better to make a big difference over 60 innings. Plus, like you said you need a LOT of relievers so the impact of one of those relief pitchers is diluted. It doesn't matter if you have a stud for the 9th inning if you never get to the 9th inning with a lead. Relief pitching has the highest cost per marginal WAR in free agency. The Twins are a mid-market team. They can't build a team paying retail prices for relievers.
  9. DJL44
    Pitcher WAA Stewart 1.2 Duran 1.0 Pagan 0.8 That's with Duran getting undeserved extra credit for leverage. Pagan actually did a better job preventing runs this season than Duran did. An "elite" reliever is worth maybe half a win more than a solid but not "elite" reliever over the course of a season. I don't think this is Duran's best season, that is yet to come. He's going to get paid in arbitration so I would recommend they give him the money now to get the discount but I'd still trade him when he gets expensive.
  10. DJL44
    I think you can turn most 4th starters into elite relievers. The Twins did just that with Varland this summer.
  11. DJL44
    This front office likes to acquire starters who are getting expensive in arbitration instead of being the high bidder in free agency. I expect that preference to continue.
  12. DJL44
    Too much downside and not enough upside. Best case scenario all you get is a really expensive reliever. Spend the money on the rotation and find someone new for the bullpen. I'd trade an expensive reliever for a first round draft pick whenever I had the opportunity.
  13. DJL44
    I'm not convinced I'd want to buy out more than one free agent season anyway. Lock him up until age 30, get the discount over those years by guaranteeing the money now (5 years $33M). When he's about to turn 31 and looking for a big free agent deal give him the qualifying offer and take the draft pick.
  14. DJL44
    Average MLB team revenue is at least $300M. The Twins are not far below average. If you assume $90M in operating expenses (which seems really high but I'll accept it). that's $40M in cash to the bottom line. Then you get the playoff windfall of $10M for four sold-out playoff games. Then you get windfalls like the sale of MLBAM, the tax shelter aspects of owning an MLB team and the increasing value of the team itself (up 12% yearly on a $2B valuation) which doesn't end up in your accounting but is a very real benefit to the Pohlads.
  15. DJL44
    Another article framed as if the Pohlads are shopping at the Goodwill and the most important thing to do this offseason is is cut salaries. How about an article about what they need to do to make this playoff team better so they can advance another round next year? This team should not be risking a shot at a title to save $10M. They're unlikely to find someone better than Vazquez this offseason and they need to improve CF and SP more than C so they might as well keep him.
  16. DJL44
    None of these players are making enough money to be concerned about. The decision to keep them will revolve around whether they have someone they like better for the roster spot.
  17. DJL44
    Why are so many posters in this thread having such a hard time figuring out what year this is? Is it legal weed?
  18. DJL44
    None of those expenses make the Twins any different than the Padres. The Twins are probably 8 figures ($100M+) in profit.
  19. DJL44
    Vazquez is still a plus defensive catcher. His batting line wasn't great but was pulled down by an especially bad May. I completely reject that the new TV contract means the Twins need to start cutting payroll. They already receive more money in revenue sharing than they pay out in payroll. That means payroll is covered before they sell one ticket or one hot dog. They could afford to spend like San Diego but choose not to.
  20. DJL44
    No, it means the team shouldn't have given him playing time. It's a failure of management to have a player rack up negative value.
  21. DJL44
    He is a "sell-high" guy. He's an established mid-level starting pitcher now but he's going to get more expensive through arbitration. He's never going to have more surplus value than he does right now.
  22. DJL44
    Got it. You believe all the general managers in baseball are wrong and they're paying too much for free agents. I guess that's an opinion but you're the one not rooted in reality. Fangraphs is just taking the $$ actually spent (reality) and dividing it by the performance (also reality). Nobody gets $66M a season but plenty of players get $33M a season with the expectation that the last years of the contract will be paying $33M for nothing. When you divvy up the pool of money it ends up at $9M/WAR. One thing I don't like about how they present the data is "value" is always in context to current market value, not market value in that particular year but that's a nitpick especially when $$/WAR was pretty much the same in 2022 as 2023.
  23. DJL44
    Tom Kelly has been considered and rejected in previous years. I want to know what Ron Gardenhire thinks about having Cowboy Joe West on the ballot.
  24. DJL44
    And WPA credits that out to the pitcher.
  25. DJL44
    Carlos Correa - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball You go down to Value and you look at the line for 2022, not the line for 2023. 2022 is last year, 2023 is THIS year. 2024 is NEXT year. He had a bad season at the plate THIS year but he was worth every penny last year. The value is based on the average cost of 1 WAR in free agency. Nobody has been paid $66M in a single season but plenty of superstars have had years of dead money at the end of the contract (see Miguel Cabrera). Like many superstars in their prime Acuna isn't able to cash in at his full value because he hasn't reached free agency.
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