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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I'll take the other side of that bet
  2. DJL44
    If the A's get approval to move to Las Vegas then we can finally prepare for expansion.
  3. DJL44
    Not really. He mentioned in the post-game radio interview that he's been working on specific zones, adjusting to where they have been getting him out. Making adjustments. He didn't wake up this morning and say "I should try hitting the ball instead of missing it!"
  4. DJL44
    All it takes is one extra-inning game to blow up that strategy.
  5. DJL44
    Are they really going to drop down to 11 pitchers? I keep thinking another pitcher would be more useful than Luplow.
  6. DJL44
    I think it's selection bias - it only shows up in the stats if the batter swings, which only happens on pitches batters want to hit. Batters walk a LOT on 3-1 counts but clearly they didn't get a good pitch to hit if it was a ball.
  7. DJL44
    Look at the cloud plots of balls and strikes. There are borderline pitches that are 50/50. That's a "close" pitch. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time or a ball 95% of the time is NOT a close pitch. Even a pitch that is a strike 60% of the time has an OBP of .400 on a full count.
  8. DJL44
    What's the all-time Saints record for strikeouts? He might get a shot at that one.
  9. DJL44
    Have you seen how many of his walks are on called 4th balls? (Hint, it's all of them). He is helping the team every time he gets on base with a walk. Hitters walk 50% of the time on a close pitch on a 3-2 count. If the ball is "close" it's a 50% chance to be called a ball or a strike. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time isn't "close". I agree, you try to foul off nasty strikes but you don't expand the zone with a 3-2 count.
  10. DJL44
    It's pretty simple math. When you take a strike or swing and miss it doesn't get counted in the denominator on a 3-1 count but it does for a 3-2 count. Possible outcomes 3-1 = ball in play, walk, advance to a 3-2 count (which doesn't get counted in the batting average) Possible outcomes 3-2 = ball in play, walk, strikeout
  11. DJL44
    Then you would want Willi Castro in LF
  12. DJL44
    Expanding the zone in a 3-2 count is dumb, you can draw a walk 50% of the time on a "close" pitch. Expanding the zone in an 0-2 count is dumb, umpires usually tighten the zone in that count. So you're talking about how he hits 1-2 or 2-2. Julien's greatest strength as a batter is he doesn't chase pitches out of the zone. He doesn't hit the ball very well at the edges of the zone anyway. If he swings more often at those pitches he will be less effective - more strikeouts and double play balls, fewer walks and barrels.
  13. DJL44
    The problem there isn't when he takes, it's when he swings and makes contact. Add 200 points of batting average to his numbers and you get a slash line almost exactly like the Twins have as a team (.300 BA, 750 OBP). Taking a pitch 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average at all. Swing and miss on 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average either, it just advances the count to 3-2.
  14. DJL44
    This is why Buxton needs to return
  15. DJL44
    If you look at the swing profile Julien has a clear hole down and in (batting average .000). That's unusual for a lefty, many of them like to golf the down and in pitch over the fence. He also is below average on pitches that drop (sinkers, splitters). MLB Swing Profiles | baseballsavant.com
  16. DJL44
    That says to me that Julien is a league average hitter on obvious strikes. He's not very good on pitches on the corners but he doesn't chase which makes up for it. How much of the -12 on swings in the shadow zone is vs LHP?
  17. DJL44
    Hopefully Stewart, Maeda and Paddack ahead of him as well. If they can get enough depth to push Jax and Funderburk/Keuchel to low leverage or extra innings they will be in good shape.
  18. DJL44
    A walk is a great way to get the runner in scoring position. With 3 balls a close pitch has an OBP of .500. I agree that you have to swing at strikes but expanding the zone with 3 balls is a terrible idea.
  19. DJL44
    Today's loss makes it more likely they clinch at home against the Angels. Get your tickets now It would be apt for this team if they clinch on Thursday 9/21 on an off day with a Cleveland loss to the Orioles.
  20. DJL44
    They end the season with 9 games that should be pointless for both teams. Somebody needs to eat those innings.
  21. DJL44
    I think Taylor is probably a better player than injured Buxton but I don't think Luplow is. Lots of decisions to make in the next two weeks.
  22. DJL44
    I was not in favor of picking up the option until Polanco volunteered to be the utility guy when Lewis was out to get playing time for Julien. That showed leadership. If he's willing to fill in at whatever position is open he could be quite useful. Polanco can take the veteran utility guy role that Solano had this year. They need to add Severino and Martin to the 40 man roster and there won't be enough room for both Solano and Polanco with those two added. That assumes they want to keep Farmer (the best defender of the utility guys). There might not be enough room for Nick Gordon even if they let Solano go.
  23. DJL44
    He's still really young for AAA, basically the same age as Brooks Lee. That alone makes it likely he will be successful in the big leagues. The problem is Woods-Richardson may run out of options before he's actually ready to contribute on a contender. A trade to a bad team would be in his best interest.
  24. DJL44
    It's pretty easy to have them throw a simulated game in between starts.
  25. DJL44
    Blue Jays get no respect
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