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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Dylan Cease, Mitch Keller, Trevor Rogers. Pitching is almost as hard to acquire by trade as it is through free agency.
  2. DJL44
    I don't think they view veteran CF and Martin as either/or but as yes/and. They want both.
  3. DJL44
    Is Ryu $8M better than Dallas Keuchel?
  4. DJL44
    Thanks to whoever fleshed out the initial post. Nice photo.
  5. DJL44
    Sure, but that's the opposite of using depth to trade for a starting pitcher. The rumor is saying the Twins have no interest in the free agent market for pitching.
  6. DJL44
    Kiermaier just won another Gold Glove in CF. He's still very good defensively and their starting pitchers have flyball tendencies. If Buxton's only available in CF once a week when the starter is a lefty that would still be an improvement on last season. If Buxton's unavailable that means Willi Castro or Austin Martin fills in which isn't terrible. I don't see a spot for Nick Gordon if they sign Kiermaier which is probably ok.
  7. DJL44
    I'm not sure which one of the position players they have they consider "depth". To get an All-Star starting pitcher (Lopez ) they had to give up an All-Star position player (Arraez). They need to replace another All-Star starting pitcher in Sonny Gray. Do they have any All-Star position players left to trade besides Royce Lewis?
  8. DJL44
    It's arguable that the Twins should have sent someone else to the AFL instead of Sabato.
  9. DJL44
    With Michael A Taylor a free agent and Byron Buxton perpetually injured, the Twins have expressed interest in center fielder Kevin Kiemaier, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Once an elite defender, perhaps the best in baseball for a time, Kiermaier is entering his age 34 season in 2024 but still posted very good defensive metrics in center for the Blue Jays in 2023. Kiermaier may not be an everyday player anymore, needing rest to stay healthy but the Twins don't seem to mind that. View full rumor
  10. DJL44
    More information about "Twins rumored to have interest in Kevin Kiermaier for CF"
    With Michael A Taylor a free agent and Byron Buxton perpetually injured, the Twins have expressed interest in center fielder Kevin Kiemaier, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Once an elite defender, perhaps the best in baseball for a time, Kiermaier is entering his age 34 season in 2024 but still posted very good defensive metrics in center for the Blue Jays in 2023. Kiermaier may not be an everyday player anymore, needing rest to stay healthy but the Twins don't seem to mind that.
  11. DJL44
    He is barely worth the minor league roster spot and development time.
  12. DJL44
    If they aren't making that assumption with contracts that go out to age 40 then they're really stupid. Do you think major league baseball general managers are stupid?
  13. DJL44
    No, Fangraphs did the math. What Are Teams Paying Per WAR in Free Agency? | FanGraphs Baseball
  14. DJL44
    Twins who would meet the "success" criteria in the Royals Review articles Yes: Lewis, Duran, Jeffers, Rooker Borderline: Kiriloff, Baddoo, Wallner There's also a few "too soon to tell".
  15. DJL44
    Baseball America said 70% of prospects in the top 100 list fail. On average, that's the top 3 prospects for any team. The failure rate should be higher for prospects outside of the top 5 for each team. The articles below set line for success as a regular contributor and see the same results. 77% of pitchers failed by those standards. The Twins used to have an 80% bust rate for their top 100 prospects. Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects - Royals Review Updating the study on the success and failure rates of top prospects - Royals Review
  16. DJL44
    The 6 WAR guys do get $48, it's just spread over more years. See Miguel Cabrera, for example. Dead money at the end of the deal where the player is producing nothing special.
  17. DJL44
    66% success rate of your top 30 prospects is probably much higher than the base rate across baseball.
  18. DJL44
    I think Atteberry's fine but he doesn't have any chemistry or really anything in common with Dan Gladden so they make a really odd couple. His voice is also too high pitched (nothing he can do about that) which is where some of the complaints come from.
  19. DJL44
    If Sonny Gray gets less than 3 years $60 million and someone other than the Twins signs him I will be royally pissed off that the Twins didn't go over that bid. Gray was one of the top 5 pitchers in the major leagues in 2023.
  20. DJL44
    But offering $6M per projected WAR means you usually lose out on the player entirely because you are outbid. You get left shopping the clearance aisle.
  21. DJL44
    Interesting move by Sinclair to try to buy back Diamond Sports for pennies on the dollar. That's one way to finance a purchase - spin off the companies into a separate company, saddle them with the debt you used to finance the purchase, declare bankruptcy and buy back the rights for a fraction of the initial cost. The article also mentioned they want to cut their payments to the NBA by 20%. Sinclair Broadcasting wants to scoop up Diamond Sports: sources (nypost.com) Sinclair owns WUCW 23 in Minneapolis.
  22. DJL44
    I think Tom Hanson from Anoka is available.
  23. DJL44
    I don't think anyone is trying to build a team 100% out of free agency. If teams don't plan for the average, then, on average, they're going to be disappointed. Planning for all of your free agent bets to work out is a good way to lose your job.
  24. DJL44
    That's a better idea if you're 29 and not if you're 34 and coming off the best year of your career. I don't understand why people think Gray would want a cheap player option. That would only happen if he wanted to opt out and pursue a higher contract later. 36 year old pitchers are not typically the ones who want to opt out. If he wanted to "opt out" and retire, he can always retire. Nobody can be forced to play major league baseball against their will. It's an employment contract, not slavery.
  25. DJL44
    There's only 2 ways to look at this: 1) The teams know that some players will bust and are content to get the average production per dollar that they're getting out of free agency. 2) The people who run teams are absolute morons who can't properly price players and get fleeced all the time by agents. Not every team has the same $$/value calculations. Large market team make more marginal revenue per additional win. Playoff teams make more money per additional win than rebuilding teams. The Fangraphs number is an aggregate that is an extravagance for the Athletics and a bargain for the Mets. Still, prices are set by the market and Fangraphs is just reporting the market value.
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