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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    The first filter on catcher defense is pop time to 2B. If you can't get your pop time down to a reasonable level, then every runner who gets on base makes it to 3B. This is one reason why position-switching in WAR as a basis for catcher replacement level doesn't work. People who can play C can often defend elsewhere but the reverse is not true. If you move your 1B to catcher, then every leadoff walk is a leadoff triple two pitches later. The second filter on catcher defense might, ironically, be how well they hit. If a player can really hit the ball, he will be moved off catcher to a less demanding defensive position so the team can have the bat in the lineup every day. The third filter is handling the pitcher - game calling, blocking, framing. You can offload pitch calling to the coaching staff if needed but not blocking pitches and keeping the runners from advancing. If we see automated balls and strikes you will see catchers change their stance to help with blocking and pop time. They won't care about framing low pitches anymore.
  2. DJL44
    Eventually they will need to acquire a catcher. Even the 2nd catchers on the market are making $6-7M.
  3. DJL44
    I don't understand shooting for 78-82 wins. Either add good players and try to win or trade veterans and rebuild.
  4. DJL44
    Them not doing a DFA of veterans is an entirely different issue. Their likelihood to DFA depends on how bad the veteran is and how much they paid for him (showing that they don't understand sunk costs). I would prefer they added a GOOD outfielder to the roster. I don't want bad veterans OR bad rookies.
  5. DJL44
    Even Casey Blake debuted at age 25. Keirsey is likely going to get a shot, get the holes in his game exposed (like all rookies), go back to AAA to improve, get another shot if he does and get cut if he doesn't.
  6. DJL44
    Agree on Wallner. I hope Larnach does well enough to get traded for something good and Walker Jenkins takes his spot for the next 5 years.
  7. DJL44
    A contender is a playoff team who has a hot streak in October.
  8. DJL44
    Canha doesn't block any of them. They're all starters even with Canha on the roster. Canha makes sure Julien isn't the everyday DH.
  9. DJL44
    And completely lost at the plate last season. Are you willing to bet the season that he bounces back? On the current depth chart, he's the everyday DH. Lee is looking at 450 plate appearances and as you say, we don't know anything real yet. Martin was awful last year and he's also looking at 450 plate appearances. This team is not far from being a playoff team and every win is going to matter. They can't bet on low-upside rookies to carry them to the playoffs.
  10. DJL44
    Playing Julien, Lee, Helman, Keirsey, Prato, Martin, McCusker is just giving up. That's a AAA team.
  11. DJL44
    On the current depth chart Miranda is 1B, Larnach is LF, Julien is DH. Lee, Martin and Helman are your bench. Canha can be a better DH than Julien and a better corner OF bat than Martin. Personally, I think they can do better than Canha, but they're not wrong that he makes the team better.
  12. DJL44
    There are only three young guys who have upside higher than 1 WAR player - Rodriguez, Keaschall and Lee. Everyone else above AA has -0.5 to 1 WAR upside.
  13. DJL44
    I think Keirsey and Rodriguez can both cover CF and they're available in AAA whenever Buxton hits the IL. Buy a bat.
  14. DJL44
    I also don't want a sub-par veteran (though Margot is probably still a better bet than McCusker). I want a decent veteran baseball player. Give me Donovan Solano, but an outfielder. The Twins have a boatload of playing time to offer a free agent acquisition and if not, they have potential trade chits. There is no reason to throw away 2025 and start rebuilding. If they add a couple veterans to the roster there will still be PLENTY of playing time available for whoever earns it in AAA.
  15. DJL44
    Who has rated Keirsey's defense as elite? Please cite sources. The scouting reports I have seen believe his CF defense would be adequate but not close to elite. He's a downgrade on Buxton in the field and Buxton isn't a gold-glover anymore.
  16. DJL44
    That sounds like a great strategy for a rebuilding team and a great way for this team to miss the playoffs.
  17. DJL44
    Great. No scholarships for Martin, Helman, Lee, Julien and Keirsey.
  18. DJL44
    But there are only 16 position players on the 40 man roster and one is a catcher. There is no way in hell they get through the season with just 16 position players. Buxton is going to get hurt. They're one additional injury away from calling up Anthony Prato or Carson McCusker. A retread MLB vet is probably going to be better than Prato or McCusker.
  19. DJL44
    Martin had a .469 OBP in St. Paul. Keirsey had a .368 OBP at the same level. If he wants more opportunities than Martin, he needs to hit better than Martin. This team doesn't pick players based on their glove.
  20. DJL44
    That batting line is heard of quite often in AAA. It's not that impressive. I also think you're overrating Keirsey's glove in CF. He's an adequate defensive CF.
  21. DJL44
    Who is the next man up? McCusker? I like Keirsey as AAA depth but putting him on the 26-man roster with little behind him in the minors could kill their season. They played 10 different people in the outfield last season. Buxton will miss 60-80 games. Kepler, Kirilloff and Margot are gone and they played 291 games between them. Castro is needed more in the infield with Farmer gone. There are 350-400 games at OF/DH left to cover between Rodriguez, Martin, Keirsey Jr and Helman. It would be great to find someone better than Martin to give 120 of those games. Emmanuel Rodriguez can play CF. If they're going to give anyone new 300+ at-bats this season I hope it's Rodriguez. I would like to have another OF on the roster so they don't have to depend on Rodriguez, Helman or Keirsey. I would probably call them up to the majors in that order. Buxton is injured often enough that Keirsey should still get 150-200 plate appearances.
  22. DJL44
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml xRA_def = (BIP_pitcher)/(BIP_team) * TeamDefensiveRunsSaved Then they adjust for park factors and finally adjust to make starters look worse than relievers.
  23. DJL44
    We used to care about batting average, then Branch Rickey figured out something better. He published it in 1954 in LIFE magazine. Goodby to Some Old Baseball Ideas Was Branch Rickey the Father of Sabermetrics? « The Captain's Blog
  24. DJL44
    There is an adjustment for team defense. This can distort the end result if you have a flyball pitcher pitching in front of a team with the best infield defense, for example.
  25. DJL44
    Here's a good preview article Rule 5 Draft Preview: Which Prospects Will Be Selected?
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