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DJL44

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  1. DJL44

    Frankie Montas

    DJL44 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    You're going to think that about a lot of pitchers this offseason.
  2. DJL44
    And fWAR is completely irrelevant to the AVG/OBP/SLG numbers with runners on base that were quoted in the article. Defense is a big part of why the run prevention with runners on base was so bad. The premise of the article is "the pitchers were bad in the clutch". I'm saying the defense was really bad in the clutch and you have to take out that contribution before you can determine how good the pitchers were with runners on base. fWAR does that to some extent - it shows the Twins pitchers were still striking out batters while avoiding walks and HR even when there were runners on base. When the batters put the ball in play with runners on their batting average was a LOT higher, but the ISO OBP wasn't because the pitchers were still avoiding walks. This analysis really needs to go one level deeper to determine how much of the poor run prevention with runners on base is bad defense and how much of it is the pitchers giving up more hard contact.
  3. DJL44
    D) Ramon Laureano
  4. DJL44
    None of those numbers are fWAR and defense matters for AVG/OBP/SLG This is relevant to run scoring (and they are bad at it) but not AVG/OBP/SLG.
  5. DJL44
    Because batted balls are assigned to the defense, not the pitcher
  6. DJL44
    Their ground-ball percentage was low, but it's still 40% of the batted balls. The Twins were in last place with 16 fewer double plays than the 29th place team. The only team with worse Total Zone fielding stats was the White Sox. They had a bad season on defense.
  7. DJL44
    I mentioned Bob Allison as a comp. You responded wondering why I thought Bobby Bonds was a bad player. That response makes no sense in regards to my original comment. We're talking about two different players.
  8. DJL44
    It doesn't ignore what happened. It assigns the defense more credit for balls in play and the pitcher more credit for HR, walks and strikeouts. The Twins were last in the league turning double plays - only 75 compared to the league leading 164 of the Colorado Rockies. That's huge. 50 double plays fewer than league average means the up-the-middle defense was poor. Julien and Martin were the main culprits there but Castro and Farmer weren't good either. They need a full season out of Correa and a new partner at 2B who can play the position well. Does anyone have confidence that Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee will be great at turning two? FWIW - the Rockies 2B Brendan Rodgers is freely available after being non-tendered and expected to sign for a modest contract. He has led the league in double plays turned in two different seasons. Pitching out of the stretch vs the windup was mentioned above. That could be a coaching issue and should be analyzed in more detail. They should also look at the effectiveness of their defensive shifts with runners on base.
  9. DJL44
    Bob Allison, not Bobby Bonds. Bobby Bonds was much better.
  10. DJL44
    Why do you think he can't be more than a back of the rotation starter? The whole idea of taking the risk is to get another top of the rotation arm like Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I agree, there isn't much to be gained if Jax is another Chris Paddack.
  11. DJL44
    It may work more often now because MLB asks less of starters than at any time in the past. 85-100 pitches is perfectly acceptable now but it wouldn't have been in 1990.
  12. DJL44
    If Walker Jenkins ends up with a 124 OPS+ in a 15 year career in LF that will be a little disappointing. That's Bobby Allison, not Joe Mauer. That's a perfectly acceptable career but it's not Juan Soto.
  13. DJL44
    Where is the article about how the Twins messed up when they let Adolis Garcia pass through waivers? I'm expecting 5000 words.
  14. DJL44
    This is such a Minnesota comment. "Just be glad we got someone who is okay, we don't deserve the best."
  15. DJL44
    No risks, no reward. This team has to take risks to develop pitching. They can't spend hundreds of millions of dollars on "sure things".
  16. DJL44
    Back of the rotation arms routinely earn more than all but the most elite relievers.
  17. DJL44
    https://rumbunter.com/3-players-the-pirates-should-keep-an-eye-on-in-the-rule-5-draft/2
  18. DJL44
    Bryan Magdaleno is a name to watch in the Rule 5 draft.
  19. DJL44
    Well duh, he is in the Hall of Fame. That doesn't mean he would have been a plus defender at CF or an elite SS. I think he could have been an All-Star at 3B but we'll never know. Considering how good he was at drawing walks, to get to 3300 hits he'd still have to be an active player.
  20. DJL44
    Almost nobody has more than 3300 hits. There's 11 people in the 150 year history of MLB. Willie Mays didn't have 3300 hits and neither did Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson or Cal Ripken Jr. You seem very certain about a very unlikely outcome.
  21. DJL44
    Joe Mauer isn't a Hall of Famer if he plays his whole career in LF. Hal McRae, for example, was a very good player but not a Hall of Famer.
  22. DJL44
    Source? $21.7M is not ace money. He's getting paid about the same amount as Yusei Kikuchi - a 34-year-old pitcher who has made one All-Star team. There will be at least 30 starting pitchers getting paid more than Lopez in 2025. Ace money is in the $30-40M per season range. Pablo is getting paid like a #2 pitcher.
  23. DJL44
    I think it will be a lot like Wallner. He'll come up and do well, the league will find a weakness and he'll need to go back down to AAA to make changes. Then he'll come up and do well again. This is typical for most players. Hopefully Rodriguez can stay healthy and all of that can all happen in 2025. I think he would have debuted in 2024 if he had avoided injury.
  24. DJL44
    The pre-draft comp I saw for Jenkins was Kyle Tucker of the Astros. Generating more power is going to be crucial if Jenkins is going to develop into that type of player. I don't think anyone is going to be impressed if he hits 20 doubles and 5-10 HR in the big leagues. It took Tucker until his 3rd pro season (age 20) to tap into his power potential in games. Let's hope Jenkins does this same in 2025.
  25. DJL44
    Do they have room for another injured pitcher on the roster? Maybe if they dump Canterino they can add Sandoval.
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