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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    He's 22 next season. They're going to start him in AAA and wait for an injury. If nothing else, they will want the extra year of team control to age 28.
  2. DJL44
    He's a faster runner than Miranda.
  3. DJL44
    I think 2024 is a perfect year for Rodriguez to bounce between AAA and the major leagues whenever Buxton goes on the injured list.
  4. DJL44
    Rodriguez plays better defense than Julien so he might still provide value as he makes adjustments at the plate.
  5. DJL44
    He might have just enough arm for RF. A "corner" utility guy could be useful. He can probably play CF as poorly as Margot did last summer.
  6. DJL44
    7 pitchers in the top 30 is awful but I also think this list has missed a couple pitchers that should have been listed in the top 30. They are a lot closer to the bottom of the list than the top. There is no evidence the Twins organization is better at developing pitchers than any other organization in MLB.
  7. DJL44
    They drafted Povich and then traded him after 1 year in the organization. If he was "90% MLB ready" then you need to give 80% of the credit to the University of Nebraska. Go ahead and count him. Like Festa and Mathews he's been below replacement value so far. Other organizations are just as successful at producing back-end starters. Go look at the top 30 prospects for other teams. Team and # of pitching prospects 40FV or greater per Fangraphs TBR 21, COL 20, LAD 17, BOS 17, TEX 17, ATL 15, TOR 15, CIN 15, NYY 14, PIT 14, KCR 13, MIL 12, MIA 12, SDP 11, OAK 11, DET 11, ARI 11, PHI 10, WSN 10, CLE 10, CHW 10, SEA 10, MIN 10, SFG 10, LAA 10 BAL 9, NYM 9, STL 9, HOU 8
  8. DJL44
    I counted Festa, though he's a long way from a finished product. I counted Mathews, Festa and Ober as the three. It might be too soon to count Festa and Mathews, but I was giving the benefit of the doubt. The track record says Falvey is mediocre at developing pitching. That's an improvement from Terry Ryan (who was one of the worst in the league) but it's nothing to get excited about. It isn't an organizational strength. They are still one of the worst orgs at producing international free-agent pitching. Their best international free-agent pitching prospect is Bohorquez and he doesn't make this list at all. The international scouts haven't produced anything since Brusdar Graterol in 2014 and that was when Terry Ryan was still in charge.
  9. DJL44
    He's a grade 55 runner in his scouting profile which is marginal for a major league CF. Those guys are usually 60-80 speed. Austin Martin is a grade 55 speed (with the worst first-step reaction to the ball in the big leagues). If Keaschall can read the ball off the bat he should be able to play an adequate CF, but he'll never be a plus defender in CF.
  10. DJL44
    The only starting pitcher they drafted and developed to the major leagues before that was Bailey Ober in 2021. Before that was Jose Berrios under Terry Ryan. That's 3 starting pitchers drafted and developed in 8 years, which is better than Terry Ryan's one SP every 6 years, but not enough to be called a "pitching pipeline". That is nothing special compared to other MLB teams. To fill the rotation with homegrown talent they need to produce a starting pitcher nearly every year. It's a good thing they have done well in trades for starting pitchers (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Woods-Richardson).
  11. DJL44
    His draft profile at Baseball America lists him at 6'1". Maybe he's shrinking. If so, that Pedroia comparison would be apt in about 2030.
  12. DJL44
    Zebby exceeded rookie thresholds in 2024 (>45 days on the active roster). Eeles was listed at #22. Perhaps you missed the first article in the series.
  13. DJL44
    That's fine, as long as you give them credit for turning Willi Castro into an All-Star.
  14. DJL44
    Why do the Nationals want to trade Tena?
  15. DJL44
    If they actually had a great pitching pipeline there would be more than 7 pitchers in the TwinsDaily top 30 prospects.
  16. DJL44
    It's an argument that there should be very few relievers in the Hall of Fame. Pitcher is a position, not reliever. Pick the best pitchers. I don't see a reason to keep making a mistake just because we made that mistake several times already. A Hall of Fame with Johan Santana excluded and Billy Wagner inducted is just stupid. I agree that WAR is not a great metric for evaluating relievers for the Hall of Fame. It systematically overrates them.
  17. DJL44
    The trick will be finding a defensive position where he can contribute. He might have enough bat for 1B/LF which would be nice.
  18. DJL44
    Did you miss this entire paragraph?
  19. DJL44
    Varland faced 83 batters and had a 9.87 ERA as a reliever with a .859 OPS against. He was horrible, even worse than he was as a starter. Henriquez faced 82 batters had a 3.26 ERA with a .716 OPS against. He needs to improve his pitching vs LHB but was otherwise quite good. If you want a larger sample size, Varland's numbers in AAA are also significantly worse than Henriquez. Is stand by my assertion. Varland was clearly worse than Henriquez in 2024. It's not even debatable.
  20. DJL44
    Varland was clearly worse than Henriquez last season. It's not even debatable.
  21. DJL44
    And yet he ends up with 27.8 WAR (tied for 338th all-time) and 16.5 WAA. Those numbers are inflated by the leverage index WAR gives to relievers and they're still absolutely pathetic for a Hall of Fame candidate. His best season (3.8 WAR) isn't as good as Johan Santana's 7th best season (4.1 WAR).
  22. DJL44
    It reminds me what a bargain Willi Castro is at $6M.
  23. DJL44
    I'm still trying to figure out Billy Wagner's narrative. Is it "Choke in the postseason and then trash your teammates and blame them for your poor performance"?
  24. DJL44
    He was a 24-year old rookie last season and should be the youngest pitcher in the bullpen. He's younger than Mathews, Festa, Canterino, Varland, Travis Adams, and Christian Macleod. He's a few months older than Prielipp and Lewis. He did just fine in AAA and the major leagues. His youth and success last season mean it would be silly to cut him. If he gets just a little bit better they'll keep him for 6 more seasons.
  25. DJL44
    I would keep Topa in the big league bullpen over Funderburk but I also don't think depth chart speculation matters much. It's nearly impossible to keep the 8 guys at the top of your depth chart all healthy at the same time. I expect more than 1 pitcher on your list will be injured before the season even begins. I agree that the glaring need is a competent LHRP.
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