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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    No, the HR robbing clip didn't require that much range. That ball was in the air a long time and he was waiting to time his jump. The spread out diving catch happened because he was a tick late running in on the ball. The best CF make that catch without diving. It isn't a slump. His range is in the 5th percentile (95% of outfielders are better) because his jump is 2 feet below average. He is a great athlete who reacts WAY too late. I think that he can improve, but it will take 1000 reps (or more). I don't know how much he can improve because he's already 25 years old and has been a professional outfielder for several seasons. It might be an undiagnosed vision issue. Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com
  2. DJL44
    Kyle Higashioka contract at $6.75M per season sets the market rate for Christian Vazquez.
  3. DJL44
    I would love Keirsey and Helman to be the AAA depth we know they'll need to make it through the season. They're perfect to bounce back and forth between MLB and AAA as needed.
  4. DJL44
    One of my least favorite musical genres
  5. DJL44
    This is blernsball, not baseball.
  6. DJL44
    Is that what we're hoping for? Slightly better than Manny Margot? I want an outfielder that can help them win games.
  7. DJL44
    The typical drop from AAA to the majors is 150-200 points of OPS.
  8. DJL44
    Austin Martin has the athletic tools to play outfield. The first clip actually shows you why he's been so bad. See how long it takes him to react to the ball after it was hit? Martin had the worst reaction time to the ball after it is hit in all of MLB. It destroys his range despite his speed. He's also very inconsistent and misplayed several outs into hits and singles into doubles. There were several plays where it was a total clown show.
  9. DJL44
    He's a downgrade on just using Miranda
  10. DJL44
    Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.
  11. DJL44
    That would mean they got more power out of his bat. 250 HR in 2000 games is 1 every 8 games. 1 every 12 games is only 166 HR. That's the difference between Ken Singleton and Claudell Washington.
  12. DJL44
    I think he'll get 300-450 PAs even if he starts in AAA. They are going to start him in AAA to gain the extra year of team control.
  13. DJL44
    I would line them up: LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Wallner, AAA - Rodriguez, 2B - Castro, DNP-CD - Martin I would like another outfielder to give Emmanuel Rodriguez at least a month in AAA, move Castro to 2B and keep Austin Martin off the 26-man roster. If Martin is on the roster, then they have room for another outfielder. Ramon Laureano, though he wasn't mentioned in the article, is a better option than Austin Martin. They could also make a trade to get themselves an outfielder. I agree that the three guys mentioned in this article are all bad fits. Hays is the best fit, but he will find someone willing to pay more than the Twins have available.
  14. DJL44
    Jenkins is 1 every 12 games at the moment. This is why the Twins coaches ABSOLUTELY need to keep working with him to get more HR power out of his swing. It is hard to find a good comp for a LF with a long career with that little power - Ken Griffey Sr played 50 years ago. Melky Cabrera?
  15. DJL44
    There are a thousand players who can make that same claim. I agree that if Jenkins is as good as we all hope, the Twins will be forced to trade him in his 5th season with the team, if not sooner.
  16. DJL44
    Keaschall is quite likely to suck if sent directly to MLB in 2025. We already know Martin sucks. Eeles can't play CF. They need to get another outfielder who is BETTER than those guys. I agree that two of the three guys listed in this article also suck. That doesn't mean they should go into the season depending on Double-A talent. Nearly every outfielder in MLB made one really good play last season. Making one good play does not make a player a good defender.
  17. DJL44
    I did NOT say Bobby Bonds would be a disappointing outcome, no matter how many other people try to put those words into my mouth. Bob Allison would be at the low end of expectations for the #2 prospect in baseball. It would be disappointing compared to what people perceive as his ceiling. They should consider trading him now if that is the most likely future outcome since his future value is rated higher than that at this moment.
  18. DJL44
    He's the #2 ranked prospect in MLB. If he turns out to be another Max Kepler that will be quite disappointing. That means they should trade him now while his perceived value is still high.
  19. DJL44
    They will need Rodriguez, Keirsey AND another OF bat to get through 2025. Right now, the DH slot is wide open and the 4th outfielder is AAA caliber.
  20. DJL44
    Carlos Mendoza is the Mets manager
  21. DJL44
    They're both marginal CF options behind Buxton. Neither one seems to have the bat of an MLB OF.
  22. DJL44
    Mike Trout hits HR. The Twins coaches will have to get a LOT more power out of Jenkins to get him to Mike Trout level performance.
  23. DJL44
    No matter how much you want to put those words in my mouth that is not what happened. I said it would be disappointing if Walker Jenkins had a 124 OPS+ career over 15 years in LF like Bob Allison. Bob Allison was a pretty good player, but he wasn't a Hall of Famer. A big part of the discussion above was regarding Jenkins not developing power. Bobby Bonds hit 330 HR and Allison hit 256. Both are probably optimistic if Jenkins doesn't learn how to drive the ball. Hal McRae is a more likely outcome, possibly worse. I think it would be wonderful if Jenkins could develop power like Bobby Bonds. I think it would be wonderful if he could be a plus defensive RF like Bobby Bonds.
  24. DJL44

    Frankie Montas

    DJL44 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    You're going to think that about a lot of pitchers this offseason.
  25. DJL44
    And fWAR is completely irrelevant to the AVG/OBP/SLG numbers with runners on base that were quoted in the article. Defense is a big part of why the run prevention with runners on base was so bad. The premise of the article is "the pitchers were bad in the clutch". I'm saying the defense was really bad in the clutch and you have to take out that contribution before you can determine how good the pitchers were with runners on base. fWAR does that to some extent - it shows the Twins pitchers were still striking out batters while avoiding walks and HR even when there were runners on base. When the batters put the ball in play with runners on their batting average was a LOT higher, but the ISO OBP wasn't because the pitchers were still avoiding walks. This analysis really needs to go one level deeper to determine how much of the poor run prevention with runners on base is bad defense and how much of it is the pitchers giving up more hard contact.
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