Major League Ready

Julien had the highest OBP on the team and struck out 31.4% of the time. I am all for cutting down the K rate but the discipline to take walks is also important. We have quite a few guys that swing at anything remotely close with 2 strikes and that's noit a recipe for success either.

I would not call this FA class thin with Shohei Ohtani / Blake Snell / Aaron Nola / Jordan Montgomery / Sonny Gray / Marcus Stroman / Eduardo Rodriquez / Lucas Giolito / Julio Urias / Martin Perez / Jack Flaherty and bounce back guys like Tyler Mahle / Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They need to pony up for one of the top free agents. We don't really know how much they have to spend but they can get payroll down to $122M if they trade Polanco and down to $115M if they trade or non-tender farmer. It should be doable. Getting one of these guys moves Varland to the BP and the 6th man when a starter goes down.

Agreed. Let's hope Martin comes up / plays well and diminishes their role.

They knew this was coming. If I were Derek Falvey, I would have arranged (internally) for most of the BAM money to be allocated to 2024. They only spent an extra $10M this year over the previous year so this could happen. Even if it were $20M "surplus", that should make up for a significant portion of the revenue decrease. Trading Polanco makes up for the rest ( I’M guessing). They likely go after a replacement for Gray and Polanco gets traded if they land someone like Montgomery or resign Gray. It’s also quite possible Polanco gets traded regardless. It will likely come down to allocating limited funds. Replacing Gray probably gets top priority and the OF is the next priority. The IF bench gets covered Castro / Miranda / Severino / Prato and Farmer if they can afford him. Polanco and Gordon are the most likely to go.

They have been around 270-300M revenue. A 153M payroll also has roughly $17M is payroll taxes and player benefits. That’s $170M. Therefore, they would have to have operating costs of nest to nothing to arrive at the number you have come up with. The articles I have seen on operating expenses suggested they run 30-35% revenue which is roughly $90M leaving a profit of $10-$40M which is consistent with the estimates we have all seen. Just throwing a number out there is not credible. Show us some foundation or any other publication that has arrived at the same conclusion.

The other 300 employees still need to be paid. Travel / Equipment / office space / and Target field operations still need to be paid. Revenue goes down and spending goes down just like every other for-profit business in America. I am not hoping they do something differently than every other business. I am hoping they find a profitable distribution channel.

Bingo. What is the advertising worth if they make this available through a streaming service without blackouts? Maybe we will finally make it easy to get games because it ultimately leads to the most revenue for MLB. Let's hope they develop a plan to maximize viewership and drive advertising revenue. They could sell packages just like they do for tickets. 162 / 81 / 40 or 20 games with an option to pay per game. Nobody is paying for unwanted content in that model.

This has nothing to do with 1B. You appear to be looking for a reason to complain. Talk about selective memory and ignoring the facts. He has sucked since leaving. He has provided replacement level value. Yet, you are bitching he is gone. It would be hard to spend the money less effectively. You might also want to look at Fangraphs data for the 2019 team. Rosario was 11th on the team among position players in WAR. He was far from "carrying the team". His wRC+ was 104. Just the facts as you like to put it. We may not have come up with a good replacement but that has absolutely nothing to do with the relative merit of letting him go. It was a great decision.

I have always been with you on moving Lewis to CF or even making him a better version of Marwin Gonzalez. BTW ... The first guy I would trade from this team is Polanco. I would use the payroll plus Gray's salary to get a very good free agent SP and I would move Varland to the BP. This does assume they come up adequate revenue sources from TV distribution to maintain payroll so that they can sustain the roster.

So, do we spend $30M on another "Correa type" free agent or do we trade Lee and a couple other good prospects for an impact player with two years of control? Personally, I am not trading top prospects for guys with two years of control. That's not a good path to sustained success. I would favor signing Montgomery or Rodriquez or even Snell if they can sustain a $150M+ payroll. I would sure like to know the plan for TV distribution. We know MLB has assembled the right people to address this issue and I would hope this is a coordinated effort among all the teams and the league.

This is impossible to argue with ... It's a universal truth that could be said for nearly every team or perhaps even every team in MLB. The question of course is how. Do they (should they) add another superstar free agent. At $30M they would have $100M invested on 4 players for a lot of years. Do we see this model successful elsewhere. What have other teams done. Houston drafted/developed extremely well and then extended dome of their players. They have continued to be successful. Their international drafting has been exceptional. Their most impactful trade was for Yodan Alverez who was 18 years old at the time. Yanier Diaz was also acquired as a prospect. Chas McCormick was a 21st round pick. Their big free agent acquisition among position players (Jose Abreau) produced below replacement value. They built a team by developing young talent. The Rangers signed a couple super stars but they were not good until a couple young guys came along and provided them exactly what you describe. Heim, Garcia and Dunning were unheralded players when they were acquired. They were older prospects which is generally looked down upon here. I believe Mike is on the right track in that our primary position players are established for the most part and we had one of the better offensive teams after the AS break. A best shot is that the young guys continue to get better and players like Lee / Martin and eventually Jenkins take us up a notch. This is not to say that a creative trade can't be made to bring in an impact bat. I think the most impactful thing they can do this off-season is find the money to replace Gray and put Varland in the BP. A BP of Duran / Jax / Stewart / Varland / Thielbar / Funderburk and resign Pagan looks pretty darn good. Lopez and a free agent on the top with Paddack / Ryan and Ober is also good.

I was not suggesting he catch less in order to play 1B. The idea would be for him to play more games by also playing some 1st base. The theory being playing 1B is not as strenuous as catching. Watching Vasquz bat was painful.

It would make sense to give Miranda a shot if they think Kirilloff is going to back relatively early in the season. They could also let Miranda and Severino audition for the position in spring training. Julien could be the back-up plan if they both stink it up. Here is another idea. How about Jeffers working on 1B during the off-season. He could play 1B part-time.

Depends on if they are willing to add a high price free agent. If they add a guy at $25M year, they will have $95M/yr invested in 4 players starting in 2025. That's not a good formula but they are going to need another top of the rotation guy if they are going to make a deep playoff run. Perhaps they add someone to the BP instead and try Varland in the rotation. They still have him for the BP role in the playoffs and they go out and get a rental if needed.

We have already seen a blueprint with Arraez. The team felt they had options to replace Arraez and they traded him. If Lee proves to be capable, they will make a trade or move someone to the OF. With the DH as well as playing match-ups, they can also rotate a day off in the filed between the IFers and of course there are always injuries. We might see Lee and Lewis play multiple IF positions in the future.

Wallner had the 2nd highest wRC+ on the team OPS so I am not inclined to see him as a problem. Gallo will be gone. That will help. It would be really big if Martin stepped up next year and took on that back-up CFer role. He could also get quite a few ABs against LHP even when Buxton plays. I would also bet Julien's K rate goes down and Lewis will get more ABs next year assuming he stays healthy. That should help too. That said ... I have to agree with you that we can't have so many guys with a high K rate.

That's what be great. I think it might take a couple years to unfold. It probably won't be a single source producing nearly all of the revenue and the new distribution channels are likely to take a couple years to develop.

The first thing they need to figure out is their TV revenue and ultimately their budget. I would like to see them sign Jordan Montgomery. This is possible with a budget in the low to mid 130s which should be feasible. I just don’t trust Blake Snell. He has been too inconsistent for me and someone is going to pay his based on last year. he mid 130s budget assumes Polanco is gone and Farmer remains and we sign MAT or Harrison Bader. Brooks Lee had a wRC+ of 78 at AAA. It also took him awhile to put up good (not elite) numbers at AA. He is not a solution for any position yet. Therefore, having him switch position, especially to 1B which makes no sense long term seems like a really bad idea. Add to the list figuring out how long Kirilloff will be out. According to what I have read, they won’t have a good idea until the procedure is done. That information obviously plays into how they approach 1B. If he is expected back in June, they likely give Miranda a shot or audition Severino at 1B.

Here is an outside opinion. Most likely players from each team to be traded We also can’t ignore that the Twins TV contract went away. How much less in revenue does this mean? IDK but it comes down to Julien + $10M to spend elsewhere is far better scenario than keeping Polanco especially given the financial realities. We have nowhere to play Polanco. Lewis is clearly the better choice at 3B and it’s far easier to come up with a 1B solution. I would invest the money in Jordan Montgomery or similar free agent. A SP of this caliber would be a significant impact whereas Julien and Lewis are actually improvements. This roster comes in at $132M Starters SALARY 1 Pablo Lopez 8,000,000 2 Joe Ryan 740,000 3 Bailey Ober 740,000 4 Chris Paddack 2,525,000 5 Free Agent 22,500,000 Relief Pitchers 6 Jhoan Duran 740,000 7 Griffin Jax 740,000 8 Brock Stewart 740,000 9 Louie Varland 740,000 10 Jorge Alcala 1,000,000 11 Cody Funderburk 740,000 12 Caleb Thielbar 3,300,000 13 Oliver Ortega / Jovanni Moran 740,000 Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 740,000 15 Christian Vazquez 10,000,000 Infielders 1B Miranda / Severino 740,000 2B Edouard Julien 740,000 3B Royce Lewis 740,000 SS Carlos Correa 33,333,000 Outfielders 20 Max Kepler 10,000,000 21 Byron Buxton 15,000,000 22 Matt Wallner 740,000 23 Bader / MAT 6,000,000 Bench 24 Willi Castro 740,000 25 Kyle Farmer 6,600,000 26 Miranda / Severino 740,000 Depth Larnach / Prato / Gordon / Hellman 740,000 Randy Dobnak 1,500,000 Alex Kirilloff 740,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 132,338,000

Did you watch the games? If not, take a look at Statcast. You just can't accept that he has gotten better. He is not a gaping hole. That's pure hyperbole. I bet you would be OK with Arraez at 2B and Julien is a better defender.

There is a 13th question that I think is quite pivotal. Does Varland start or go to the BP? If he goes to the pen, they have to sign a free agent SP. (a case could be made they need to sign one even with Varland as a SP) They just don't have any guys knocking at the door so perhaps Varland is kept a starter even if they prefer to use him as a RP. However, if they sign a starter that is something above a back of the rotation guy, the ripple effect could be Polanco and perhaps Farmer get traded. Of course, we don't know how much the termination of the Bally contract will impact spending. Anyone seen any articles on potential alternatives?

IDK why so many people want to move Julien to 1B given his improvement at 2B. Moving him to 1B diminishes his value. It makes more sense to trade Polanco. He has trade value so we get something in return plus we have $10M to spend elsewhere and payroll is probably going to be squeezed this year. Each team's player most likely to be traded Is there a free agent or trade that can be made for a RH hitting guy that could play corner OF and 1B? I like this better than a patch job at 1B for a one year or half a year when Julien has been improving quite a bit a 2B. The Polanco money would also be better spent on pitching. They don't have much SP depth as it is and they just might put Varland in the BP.

Add Castro to the highly likely. He is a pretty ideal bench player. Farmer is also likely. I see the Twins keeping Farmer over Polanco because he fits this roster better than Polanco. Neither Polanco or Farmer are going to be primary starters. Farmer has more versatility and he hits LHP better than Polanco. Plus, Polanco has trade value. I see them spending the Polanco money on pitching or possibly a RH hitting Ofer. I would also take an even money bet that Alcala is back. Gordon would not be overly surprising but my guess is they use him in a trade this winter.

Why not. What would be the advantage of leaving open spots?

There are 8 free agents coming off the roster. (Gray / Maeda / Mahle / Pagán / Solano / Gallo / Taylor / Kuechel) They could also remove De León and Henriquez. Luplow is likely non-tendered. IDK about Ortega and Gordon. Is Ortega expected to be healthy next year and will they trade Gordon? I would also put the odds of Polanco being traded at 50/50. The two biggest question marks for me are Thielbar and Balazovic. That’s potentially 16 players coming off and a total of 46 on the 40 man giving them room for up to 10 players with the actual number probably 6-7. Erod / Martin / Camargo and Severino are no brainers for me. I can’t see a team taking Salas given he had a 537 OPS at A+ this year. If I assume 7 spots, the other three I would add would be Prato / Kiersey and Olivar