Dman

I guess it depends on your view of this team. Are you projecting them out to be winners (in the playoff hunt) every year or win one year lose the next? Because they made those trades in losing years. So to maintain that kind of balance you would have to contemplate them losing almost as much as winning IMO. Most teams in contention for the playoffs wouldn't be trading a Jose Berrios at the deadline for prospects. My line of thinking is that with these moves for pitching that they are planning on winning and that this would be a long term winning strategy and if that is the case I don't see much in prospects coming back. By employing their current trade for a starter strategy and sustaining it they would be doing the opposite of an Oakland, Tampa, Cleveland who generally sell the last few years of vets for prospects. They wouldn't be bringing prospects back but continuously trading them at least if they are winning. I think what they are doing is fine short term but as the OP said I don't think it is sustainable if building a winning team year in and year out.

For me he is really tough to slot. I would have him anywhere from 4 to 8. It is hard for me to compare pitchers to position players. If you just skip pitchers I would have him at number 4 because I think he can be a solid defender, he has a good eye at the plate, can hit and hopefully hit for power. He was a bit down with the bat at High A so it makes one wonder a bit about the hit tool but he is also only 19 and already at high A so that is a plus as well. If the bat breaks out he is a top 5 prospect for sure whether he sticks at short or not for me. If the bat stalls then he drops. Man he is big for 19 years old.. Happy to have a player with his upside to watch at High A, which will need all the good players they can get.

Yeah I agree there is always more to look at in win now trade moves than just straight up production value over the years. When your team is a playoff team and you need to strengthen it now, not using a minor league asset that is far off to get something you need now could be the difference between making it to the next playoff game or world series. You are willing to lose deals like that to make your strong team stronger short term. If\when it doesn't work out it hurts but if the move helps the team win it is worth losing potential future value IMO and too your point there is no way to immediately know if the future asset will work out either. So the value is hard to define as it could end up a lose\lose or win\win or something in between. So there is more to trade "value" than meets the eye IMO.

I agree for the short term but the last pitcher Lopez cost them Arraez and often times teams want two top 100 prospects for a year and a half of control at the deadline. You can't stack up deals like that for long. Top players are eventually going to be needed to pull deals off. So to the OP's point it isn't sustainable long term. For examples of what happens when you continue to trade your farm away follow Dombroski. It caught up to the Tigers and Red Sox eventually. Look at what the White Sox had to do at the Deadline in 2021. They literally had to trade a MLB player off of their roster to get another closer because their farm couldn't get the deal done. Twins are OK for now but eventually this philosophy will create a barren Farm system.

I wanted the Twins to draft Prielipp but the Twins were in a bit of tough spot picking at number 8 where the top hitters were projected. My thoughts at the time on Prielipp were that he had an elite slider with solid FB and Changeup. So he had the pitches to be elite. He had TJ surgery out of the way already so he could be a fairly fast mover with a bit less risk to reinjure the arm. I was tempted to say the Twins should take him at number 8. Still you never know with TJ surgery and it looks like most all teams backed off on their projections for him. Have to assume the industry felt he would more than likely end up a bullpen arm or he would have been taken sooner. Even as a bullpen arm he has a very high ceiling so he was a great pick for the second round IMO. If, and I know these are always big ifs, he returns to form, that 2022 draft will go down as one of the best ever. There is a long way to go but I love that he is a lefty with that crazy good slider. Hoping he does fulfill that ace potential he seems to have.

Most of this board keeps saying the FO should be aggressive going after difference making players and they went and got Correa, Gray, Mahle, Paddack, Lopez and Lopez in the past year or so to make this team stronger. We all say lot's of prospects don't work out and we have seen lot's of them not work out. We had a surplus of middle infielders to use as trade bait and with those assets and the top of their 2021 draft the FO obtained potentially the best starting 5 in a very long time. They decided the time to go for it was last year with the Correa signing and they bet half the farm to try and make something happen. The window on Kepler, Polanco, Sano is\was closing fast and wave two of at least hitting prospects is here. So we wanted them to do this and it seems like they are trying to move this team over the hump they haven't been able to get over. Will it be enough hard to say. To the OP's point is it sustainable? That is an easy NO. You can't keep trading the best of your young controllable assets for long without setting the team back unless you are willing to hang with the big boys payroll in the 250M range. With most of these pitcher deals they also gave themselves a short two to three year window so they need some of those minor league pitchers to work out quickly or it is going to be very hard to compete even in the easy central. I hope they have a good year or they could be painting themselves into a corner.

I really liked Devin and thought he pitched well last year. At the MLB level he worked to a 3.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Those are nice numbers but his K rate was really, really low. I am guessing that is why the Twins were able to get him through waivers, as most teams felt they had something better on their 40 than Smeltzer. While I am happy he found a team in Miami to take him in, it is really going to be tough to break in to that rotation unless they have several injuries. Still, good for him. I will always root for him and enjoyed watching him pitch for the Twins.

You beat me to it but what you said pretty much sums up my feelings. Need to give him a good hard look so at least half the season as a starter and see if he rights the ship or least shows he has what is needed to remain a starter. For the most part his arm has been pretty durable but he needs the stuff to get guys out and stop giving up so many HR's. Going to be interesting who starts at AAA with Varland, SWR, Ober, Winder and Rodriguez as likely starters there. Balazovich makes 6 starting pitchers at AAA so they can take their time and or put him in a variety of roles if they want to. I want to believe he will rebound but it has been two years of pretty average stuff so far from confident things will change. Hopefully with a motivated offseason he takes his stuff to a new level.

Always love your analysis. Thanks!

I guess mainly because a significant number (probably majority) of pitchers spend some time on the IL during the season. I think every Twins pitcher last year except maybe Bundy missed starts for some issue or another. It kind of goes with the territory and I think it is why the Twins and a lot of other teams don't like to do long term deals for pitchers. Sure the odds of Lopez missing more time than Arraez are more likely than the other way around but the Twins needed more pitching depth so here we are. In a perfect world the Twins wouldn't be in a position where a trade like this makes sense.

If you really want to know about Helman you will have to hope Seth responds. The main issue I see is Helman doesn't have any plus tools not one. His best tools are average at best per MLB.com . Still he is an over achiever and if he ups his power and finds a way to OPS in the high 800's to 900's he will get his chance. If not with the Twins then elsewhere. He just needs to distinguish himself and the best way would be with the bat. Also the Twins are loaded with talented infielders and with Correa and Polanco blocking 2nd and short and Miranda third for now there isn't a place for Helman to break in. I think he is a good player and there is a reason he made the top 30 prospects but making it to the big leagues is hard. He has a lot of competition. Hopefully he continues to hit and hit with power and he will get this chance.

I tend to agree their bats don't seem that different to me. Taylor has more power and is better defensively but they are pretty close to the same player. Maybe I am over thinking things but why did the Twins need Taylor so badly on a one year deal? Seems like this might be setting up another move. With Correa at short it seems like Lewis's next most valuable position would be center field. Is Taylor just a bridge to Lewis? And if he is do the Twins really need Celestino? I am wondering if they are going to trade Celestino as the odd man out. Like I said could be over thinking things but there are too many outfielders on the 40 man right now.

Twins transaction page has Celestino and Varland activated does that mean they are being traded soon? No one else is activated.

Not sure why the Twins didn't care for Sisk as his numbers were good last year. I guess I don't understand the Walks issue as his WHIP was only 1.02. They left Sisk unprotected in rule V and nobody grabbed him so there must something that other teams didn't like or think he wasn't ready for MLB ball. Personally I think this is a good get for KC. 6 Years of control of a likely solid Lefty reliever and a gamble on flame thrower Cruz who was starting to find more control. Cruz had tendency to groove pitches though so there is work to be done. The Twins get one year of control for Taylor and he is great Buxton insurance in the field not so much with the bat. Probably a necessary move. I assume an outfielder gets moved here shortly? Man the Twins are getting picked over on the pitching prospect side of things, but they got Sisk in the Happ deal so kind of found money\asset there and Cruz is a lottery ticket for KC so not a bad deal I guess.

I loved following this guy through the minors. Very consistent all the way up. Never had the K numbers to say he would be a top of the rotation guy but he always managed to do well. Sad to see things didn't work out quite as well as we all thought but he was up decent amount of time. He accomplished something less than 1% ever do which is play Major League Baseball. If the game was starting to hurt his body (arm) then he was right to retire.

Given the Arraez trade and the fact the Twins should have three open spots on the 40 man around spring training when Lewis, Canterino and Paddack get put on the IL there is a solid chance the Twins roll with Max as well as Gallo. There is so much up in the air with Kepler and his projected performance it seems like it might be hard for the Twins to get fair value for him. He does do a lot of things right. Plays really good defense, has a good eye at the plate, can hit for power and runs well. Like the OP mentioned if he can tweak a thing or two he could have his breakout for real this time. The tough part is we have been waiting for it since 2019 so he could still just be who he is which seems to be about 2 WAR player which isn't bad either. I can't say I love potentially carrying 8 outfielders on the 40 man but with currently only 6 infielders it looks like the Twins can make it work if they want too. It could go either way IMO. Once those spots open up I see the Twins grabbing a reliever or two and maybe something for first maybe not and looks to me like they will be done. They don't have to sell low on Kepler and if I were them I wouldn't as he has good value now and possibly more with a little better luck.

I get where PR is coming from. We all love watching Arraez bat. The guy most prospect watchers didn't think would make it to MLB let alone win a batting title. The guy who is always humble and hard working. The guy who can really make a pitcher work but Reusse only focused on one side of the story if you ask me. Reusse didn't mention Arraez's knee issue's. Didn't mention keeping him healthy meant keeping him at 1st and DH more and resting him versus lefties when possible. He didn't mention that the over all average OPS of 1st baseman was essentially the same as Arraez. Didn't have a plan for what to do with Arraez when Lewis, Lee and Jullien come up. He also is someone who always, always complains about Twins pitching and he didn't address that in his article either. He didn't mention that Trade values and most outlets thought the value the Twins got back was rated as significant and likely an overpay. That even the Rookie Miranda had a 750 OPS after having a really tough start to his MLB career so it isn't like Luis's 785 OPS is elite. His production can be replaced easier than then the Twins can find Pitchers of Lopez's caliber. I get Arraez is a unique hitter and I have loved, loved everything about him, but I still think this trade made the Twins a stronger team now and in the future.

Yeah I see I got toasted by just saying extension but those were very modest deals. Only getting one more year for Paddack barely qualifies IMO but yes it is an extension. I don't think they will get even one extra year out of Lopez unless he goes in the tank as he will be 28 when he would hit FA and likely getting a 5 year deal from some team at 20 some Mil AAV. They might be able to extend Gray or Maeda as they are older pitcher's and they might not have to go long term with them but I responded to those saying Lopez might not be just 2 years. The Twins don't generally get into bidding wars and it just makes too much sense for Lopez to wait for the market and get his possibly one shot at a big payday. Someone had a nice post about ways the Twins could fit that larger salary in but I still think it is pretty unlikely they get that done and we will see but is he the kind of pitcher they want to invest high dollars in? I don't think so and we haven't seen them do that yet so I stand by my low odds post.

I've read a lot of other national outlets that rate the trade fairly even simply because both teams addressed short term needs and prospects are wild cards you just don't know how they will turn out the failure rate is high. If Salas and Chourio don't work out then sure the Marlins win this deal. If they do work then the Twins really did well. That being said prospects and farm systems are important for all teams and assets are assets. The value for prospects is subjective and often based on how they are rated for various tools but it is an inexact science to be sure. Take Eduoard Jullien for instance his scouting tools are below and he is below average in all of them except power which is only average and yet he is number 7 on MLB.coms top 10 for second basemen. Sometimes a players tools exceed expected performance. I know Salas's numbers have been brought down some as he has gotten older and filled out but being 19 and making it to High is no easy thing. Very few players get there at that age. The fact his bat suffered a little there shouldn't be too surprising. His other tools seem fine to me. He runs better than Lee and has the same arm and fielding grade they differ on Bat and Power so not sure why he couldn't stick at short at this point as I think Lee can play there for now. At any rate prospects are important as they help build teams with some built in cost control and the Twins got two more good assets to develop or to trade for future big league assets. I think they did well in this deal.

It might not be written in stone but when is the last time the Twins extended a pitcher? I can't remember one. If Lopez continues to pitch as he has been wouldn't that require a Berrios like deal that they pretty much turned down already? If the deal is large will they want to fit that in with the Correa and Buxton signings? It might not be written in stone but the odds would be very, very low on an extension IMO.

FWIW Fangraphs really likes this trade for the Twins https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-won-the-trade-that-had-to-happen/ They are pretty high on Salas and feel he is Minnesota's 3rd rated prospect if I read it correctly. If true that would mean the first 3 players in the top 30 would be shortstops with 6 total in the top 30 (not including Martin). Seems impossible. It also would mean that MN has at least in some instances 3 top 100 shortstop prospects. Crazy times, crazy times,

I have to say I am a bit surprised that Miami had to give essentially double the value for Arraez but they gave up things that shouldn't hurt them that bad and they literally got the American League Batting champion. We didn't really get an ace and we only got two years of Lopez so I guess the difference needed to be made up somewhere. It would have been pretty hard for Miami to find a better player for the deal they gave the Twins IMO. That being said the Twins needed another solid pitcher to make sure this team can compete with the Guardians and White Sox and it looks like Lopez was the most attainable. If the Twins can't resign him after two years there is a good chance they at least get a comp pick for him leaving granted the same should be true for Miami and Arraez. I know Luis's knee's can give him trouble but Miami is getting a guy that can work counts and hits well with men on base. They got what they needed and they have a lot of good arms coming up and got value for Lopez who they could afford to lose. Once those Miami fans see Luis in action they will be happy with this trade. Getting Lopez helps buy the Twins time for the pithing pipeline to produce some quality arms. Next year they would still have Ryan, Ober, Paddack and now Lopez. With Winder, Varland, SWR and Maybe Balazovich in the wings they get time to let them develop and see what they have. It also gives time for Enlow, Headrick, Festa and Maybe Raya to be possible rotation pieces in 2024 or 2025. So the trade helps but two years is not that long. Getting a near top 100 Prospect in Jose Salas was a nice get. I would have prefered pitching but a possible star player at short or third or Center is still helpful given all the prospects we had traded away recently. They also got to hedge that bet with another interesting international signee Chourio who looks like he has good plate discipline, speed and only really lacks power at this time. If those two or even one of them make it that gives the Twins another 6 controllable years of an asset and I like the odds for both players. I think the OP has it right. This trade worked for both teams as one really needed a solid hitter and the other a solid pitcher. Hopefully this is one of those win, win deals.

Yeah I think I might have discounted Salas too much as he has really good speed and at 6'2" and 190 he is well built. He has a plus hit tool and when I watched him in Beloit he looked like the best hitter on that team. Plenty of work to do on his hit tool but he is at High A and only 19. He is also a switch hitter which is nice. Still quite a ways away but he has a chance to be pretty special so it looks like the Twins bet on the future a bit with this pick. Man do they have some really interesting shortstops from the DSL to High A now. Miami had pretty interesting pitching prospects around the top 10 and our pitching pipeline is pretty low. I kind of thought they would go pitcher but maybe Salas was just too good to pass up. Will be interesting to see how this one works out. I am starting to come around to this being a better deal for the Twins than I initially thought.

I know Trade values disagrees but I think this is a great deal for Miami. They don't need Lopez and the Salaries offset and it will be an easy sell to their fanbase that they went out and traded for the American league batting champ. I don't think this could have worked out much better for Miami. I tend to agree with NicksaViking in that getting just two years of a decent pitcher every time they trade seems most likely to be a losing proposition. Still The Twins found value in this trade as they got a solid pitcher and a good Shortstop prospect to boot. The Twins kind of needed this trade as well for injury protection for Gray, Maeda and Mahle. Also because they have Lewis, Jullien and Lee on the doorstep so hopefully hitters that can pick up some slack. If I am on the Minnesota side it seems like an OK deal if I am the Marlins today was a great day.

I like what the Twins did this year going for two top of the class prospects and a third really good one. All three have good defensive and offensive tools. Lots of teams spent pretty much whole pool on one player so for the Twins to get three shots is impressive. Have to say though that it is really hard to tell which guys are going to make at just 16 years old so even though they took guys ranked at the top a lot can change in a couple of years. To be honest they didn't do too bad last year with only 1 big signing Mercedes at 1.7M and a bunch .5M signings on Acuna, Nova, and Rodriguez so there is more than one way to acquire big time talent. Still I really like the players they got this year and hope they work out.