Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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What Would a Twins Rebuild Look Like?
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In 2022, the youngest team was Cleveland at 26.42 years average, the oldest was NYM at 30.68. The Mets got older keeping the team largely intact and signing Verlander. The Twins in 2022 were 28.42 falling in the middle third. With only a partial roster shown, the Twins would be somewhere in the 26.3 to 26.5 YO range depending on how they filled out the 26 man and which fill-Ins came from STP. Considering everyone ages a year… that’s quite the significant shift, from middle third to likely the youngest or second youngest team in the MLB. -
bright lights of Houston huh? Annually yes he’s making less, but tax-wise it’s 1% difference between NY and MN and total contract is 10% higher. Correa nets 8.5 to 9% more in NY aggregate. Also, to your point of not just about the money, Mets won 101 games last year, and signed Verlander and Nimmo. Good chance of winning a WS as a Met, Twins? Much lower
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Even if they did sign Correa, and it’s still possible the Mets back out and Boras/Correa comes hat-in-hand, and Falvine look like geniuses (point made by@KirbyDome89 maybe the Twins priced the injury into their offer) this is a worse team. Farmer is a significant step back from Urshela in the extra infielder position and Vázquez is a massive fielding improvement from Sanchez but a slight step back with the bat. The Manfred ball isn’t going anywhere, so they flushed $11m down the toilet on 4th outfielder who hits left handed and they still need to carry Kyle Garlick on the 26. It’s still a worse team and now to actually make improvements they have to swing trades, which puts the “sustainable success” thing at risk.
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Good point!
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Good job Twins FO taking a breath and asking to dig deeper on the medicals. I’ve been hard on Falvine, but not getting sucked in was a difficult choice, and probably a good decision. It does raise questions why the team didn’t have better medicals on Correa than the giants…
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@Cody Christie you said “intriguing”
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Mateo would be a great guy to snag off the waiver wire, and waive him again to sneak him through to the Saints as Farmer insurance. The Twins should not give up resources to acquire Mateo unless it’s another PTNBL/Cash deal.
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who cares if spending 11m fixes 4th/5th outfielder? Speaking of foolish spending… they still need a RH hitter in the outfield. they still need hitters (plural). Farmer is a huge step down from Correa, Vazquez is fine hitter for a catcher, While this team may have the best (when healthy) 2-5 rotation, Sonny Gray is not the guy I want starting WS game 1. as things sit today, this team is worse than the team that went 78-84 with all the same injury questions.
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- carlos correa
- kyle farmer
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Starting with 300M, made way more sense than what they did. Correct, don’t bid against yourself, but then if you were never prepared to offer more and actually compete for a guy you knew was going to get offers in excess of $300m, they shouldn’t have fiddled around to begin with. this FO beat themselves by failing to improve the roster in free agency that they actually had the resources to compete with. They went all-in and single-mindedly focused on a guy they had no chance to sign while letting the Free Agents they actually had a shot with, go elsewhere. They made this a lose-lose situation for themselves. If their 285m offer was everything they could offer, and had no more room in the budget for anything else, then they’re really, super-incompetent. If 285 was all they were going to offer to begin with, had room in the budget for other players, but ignored those needs to focus on Correa, they’re naive and incompetent. I have been a staunch supporter of this FO, but they apparently learned nothing last year about multi-tasking and flexibility.
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- carlos correa
- kyle farmer
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Great post! Welcome to TD!
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Because, in the big ticket contracts, the total is what the agent and player care about. AAV matters to the team, total dollars is what the player and agent care about. Correa wanted the highest dollar amount possible, Bonilla day is fine with him. $28 per or 26, it’s all huge money and plenty to live like a king. The 315 is generational wealth that his grandkids maybe great-grandkids won’t have to work a day in their lives. But to the team that 8 years 315 mil is 39 mil per year vs 26 mil per on 12 years. 13 mil per year gives the team tons of flexibility. They’re paying 315 no matter what.
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Twins Need a Minnesota Miracle
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Welcome to TD- 81 replies
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- derek falvey
- thad levine
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Sure he’s played CF. If he’s an $11M 4th outfielder who gives Celestino time in AAA, I’ll be pleasantly surprised. OAA paints a different picture than “elite fielder”. Not sure I believe that stat, but it’s the best perspective I have. Gold gloves are typically hitting awards, more than fielding awards, but reputation does mean something. For his career he has a 0 OAA, in 2022 -3 or -2 in LF and RF, 2021 he was +6 in RF and 0 in left. 2019 he was 0 in CF. I’ll take league average fielding or better if he hits like he did prior to 2022. the challenge is, outfielders need to HIT, and 2022 was when they installed the Manfred ball. There’s no indication the Manfred ball is going away. The Manfred ball sapped power across the league. From 6776 home runs league wide in 2019 to 5215 in 2022. 23% decrease in dingers. Maybe Gallo banks a bunch of doubles off the limestone, but man I’m skeptical. can he rebound? Sure, it’s possible. Will he? Doubtful. what are the other moves that come with it? Does he replace Kepler? Larnach? Celestino? There’s a few plausible outcomes here that depend greatly on return from trade. I’m skeptical
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For career at bats qualified Gallo is number 34 non-pitcher fewest sacrifice flies since 1954 when the stat was tracked by MLB. That includes offensive stalwarts like Oswaldo Arcia, so I raised the bar from qualified to 2k at bats. that makes Gallo number 2 behind something called Ryan Freel who had 21 sac hits, making Gallo likely number 1 im not sure what this prestige tells us though, since Ted Williams had no Sac hits and only 20 sac flies in his career. He likely just had enormous RISP and only played a few years after the stat was instituted
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fangraphs says 3 sac flies and 1 “sac hit” which I assume to be a sac bunt or fielders choice that scored a run. So 4 sacrifices in his career
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I remembered the Jack Kennedy bit, forgot about misspelling potato bit. I was 8.
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Last offseason had a plan? “Holy crap look at all the pitchers sign, let’s get Dylan Bundy” and “OMG that flier on Correa worked!” was a plan?!
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This! It’s not the contract and whether or not Correa signed it, it’s the dithering while their competitors signed the players they needed to sign. A trade for a fine utility player and fine catcher does not a successful offseason make. Now there’s no free agents available that move the needle and the question becomes “should the Twins sell?” yuck
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13 years just spreads the money out for cash flow. Correa, Boras and Zaidi themselves don’t expect Correa to be playing in 13 years.
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Wealth and budget are two different things.
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Is this FO incompetent, that they can’t effectively multitask, to fill gaps in the roster while negotiating with Correa, or are they so hamstrung by budget that they can’t afford to sign Correa and fill other holes adequately? both paint a picture of incompetence as resigning one player you can’t afford is just as bad as not being able to multitask as a basic pre-requisite of management
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Million? sure it’s been a crazy hot stove, but not that crazy
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I’d rather the Twins pay his salary, and trade very little in minor league capital to get Crawford. Honestly, I think they should turn attention away from SS, now. They need hitters, and the available options at SS are not really upgrades from Farmer. Swanson could be, but with one season of good hitting, not sure I’d bet the Farm(er) on that.
