Chembry

I have the same thought process on this topic. The question is who do they target in a trade? Would it be to fill a need at 1B/C/SS or just the best prospect they can get regardless of position? The reason I include SS is because Culpepper has some positional flexibility playing 3B in college and some 2B in the minors. My stance is we try to fill a position of need first with the best MLB ready prospect they can get. Whether that's Eldridge, Harry Ford, Moises Ballesteros, as well as others...

Lol…it wasn’t me, it was a direct quote from the SI article. I should have been clearer on that. I was simply stating he hit better as the season went on. Do you disagree? Edit: I do understand your point about cherry picking dates and somewhat agree. I tend to compile and calculate my own stats. I was just too lazy this time and quoted the article. But to some extent, you have to pick dates to show a point. I don't know how the author decided on August 17th as the start date. However, the end date was defined by the date the article was published, which was September 23rd. Your point on OPS is well taken. However, the OPS quoted in the article (.791) is still well above league average of .719 for 2025. It would also put him at 54th place of all MLB hitters, above Spencer Torkelson, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Lowe, Elly De La Cruz, Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, PCA, Ian Happ, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts, etc... It did surprise me that Lewis only walked 10 times since August 1st and 25 times all year. His BB rate was 6.2%. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/royce-lewis-admits-he-came-back-too-soon-from-hamstring-injury

Spot on. Royce admitted in an SI article he came back too soon from the hamstring injuries. That along with the ACL tears have changed his lower body. As the season moved along, you could tell he started to feel more comfortable with his lower half. His feet still move quite a bit, but he is adjusting and hope he will be closer to the Royce we know he can be. His second half stats were much better. From Aug. 17 through Sept 23rd, he hit .270/.299/.492 with a team-best eight home runs and 24 RBIs in 127 plate appearances. I was happy to see Royce start stealing bases again, but made me nervous almost every time. I think we all would be very happy if he sustained that production for the year.

Off topic here, but I bought a few Twins jersey grab bags at a couple of the games I went this past year. The jersey grab bags are team issued, game used, or autographed jersey of any current or former Twin. I bought them because I like the unknown aspect. My favorite one was a team issued Matt Canterino jersey. I am excited to wear it to games next year. I also got an autographed Carlos Correa and team issued Trevor Richards jersey. Pretty sure I am the only person, besides Trevor Richards, who has a Trevor Richards jersey. Seriously though, I think we all wish Canterino the best. He has talent in spades, but he hasn't thrown a "competitive pitch" since 2022 and that was in AA. I know he has pitched some in spring training in 2024. Cam Booser can be used as a case study. I think most of us are familiar with his story, but injuries derailed his career and he was out of professional baseball from 2017-2021. He signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox and worked from AA up to MLB, but took him 4 years to reach MLB. Obviously everyone is different and Canterino has pitched in ST, but he would need time to acclimate again. If he is healthy come ST, I hope he gets a look. However, the probability of him making it to MLB next year is low. In all likelihood, he would start at AA again and build up from there.

I assume Scott Servais will have the inside track for the SD Padres position. Pure speculation of course, but he currently works for the Padres in player development. I like him for the Twins position because of his player development experience and he has direct experience with rebuilds.

Personally, I do believe trading Ryan will only benefit the Twins in the long run. Especially if the package includes top prospects that are MLB ready, which is what I believe the Twins will ask for given we have Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez that are all really close to MLB. However, a veteran pitcher like Pablo acts as a second pitching coach. He has publicly stated that he attends bullpen sessions and helps with both the mental and physical side of the game. A locker room presence like that is invaluable to all the young pitchers we have (Abel, Bradley, Morris, Prielipp, etc...). Add that to the many reasons I don't trade Pablo in the offseason. I don't like trading Ryan, but the likelihood of the Twins extending him after 2027 is zero. I also think the Twins could absorb trading either Ryan or Lopez, but not both. That's the reason I look to trade Ryan.

That wouldn’t be a smart move. Skubal is a free agent after 2026, so you would essentially be trading at least 6 years of Jenkins (barring any trades or modifications to CBA) for 1 year of Skubal.

That would be a nice package and I agree we need a SS. I also think Lee will get another shot in 2026. Mayer profiles are more of 3B, but can also play SS. If the Sox lose Bregman, not sure if they would be willing to let Mayer go. Arias has only played 10g at AA so probably between Culpepper and Houston in terms of readiness. Rafaela has potential gold glove caliber defense and under contract through 2031 with a club option for 2032. Hopefully, he can continue to grow as a hitter and cut down his chase rate. He cut his K rate from 26% in 2024 down to 20% in 2025. That is good progress.

Maybe he didn't say that and that is fine. Nevertheless, that doesn't color my view of him and I will continue to be a fan. Did you watch the Netflix documentary Clubhouse: A Year With the Red Sox? If you didn't, you really should. It's fantastic and really shows who Jarren Duran is as a person. He is the type of teammate everyone wants. I agree with you and I don't want him to be traded to the Twins. He is under team control through 2029, but I would rather go young. It was reported that the Red Sox offered 2 of Arias, Garcia, and Tolle plus a lower level prospect for Ryan at the deadline. We don't know which 2 of their top 3 were offered. It could have been any combination, but at the time the Twins wanted Duran included. I would much rather see a package headlined by 2 of Tolle/Marcelo Mayer/Arias. It was recently reported by SI that the only truly untouchables for BOS are Crochet and Anthony, so maybe Rafaela would be available? I am not sold on the Password, Campbell, or Casas (only included because we need a 1B).

Great quote from Duran. Not that we need another LH hitting outfielder, but Duran plays the game hard and the right way. I became a fan after watching Clubhouse: A Year with the Boston Red Sox and after saying this, I will always root his success no matter where he goes.

Yes Detroit needs another good SP to compliment Skubal. He will be gone after 2026, so they need another top of the rotation guy.…Mize is ok and Flaherty hasn’t been very good. Personally, I think Max Clark would be off limits, but worth asking. Like you say, if we are going to trade Ryan, I hope we scour every opportunity to get the best value. But I wouldn’t be jazzed about trading Ryan within the division.

I agree, we should be shooting for multiple top prospects if we trade Ryan. When I look at prospects, I look at MLB, Fangraphs, and Baseball America. I compare scouting reports between sites and I watch a lot of baseball (both in person and streaming). Personally, I have seen both Ballesteros and Long play. Ballesteros is rated #53 MLB (#2 org, 55), Fangraphs not rated (FV45), BA #32 MLB (#1 org, BA grade 50/medium). MLB and BA grade him higher on his hit tool and say the same thing. Advanced bat to ball skill and consistently hits the ball in the air with authority. HR totals likely limited due to all field approach. Fangraphs grades him lower in that regard and that’s where the difference is. However, from 2023 until present, he has shown that advanced bat to ball skills reaching AAA at 20 and MLB at 21. I watched a fair bit of him streaming and a few games in person. His bat to ball skills are impressive. I think his value is brought down by his catching grades. He isn’t a great defensive catcher. Long was just named as the Cubs minor league player of the year. He wasn’t a highly touted prospect and drafted in the 9th round. Going into 2024, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar. He isn’t rated in the top 100 of any list, but would be one to include in a package. He is rated as #7 org (MLB, 50 grade), Fangraphs #9 org (pre 2025 season #17, FV 40+), BA #7 org (BA grade 45/high). Again, Fangraphs doesn’t rate his hit tool as high. Both MLB and BA have similar scouting reports in which Long has advanced bat to ball skills and plus raw power. He works counts well and is selectively aggressive. He doesn’t chase at a high rate as evidenced by his low K rate and high BB rate. BA has the statement “he has the plate skills and power to profile long term at 1B.” Same as with Ballesteros, I have seen him play a fair bit. His pure power and bat to ball skills were just as, if not more impressive than Ballesteros. He showed that off by hitting .340 avg/7HR/29 RBI/.983 OPS in 42g at AA in 2024 and continued that through 140g at AAA in 2025. That sustained production deserves a look. My guess is his value is somewhat brought down his run and arm grades. Nevertheless, I was solely focusing on 1B prospects as compared to Eldridge. Just saying we can get good value with other prospects as well. As mentioned, Long wouldn’t be a headliner, but one to ask to be included with Alcantra, Wiggins, Ballesteros, etc…that is if we trade Ryan. Maybe we could get Long for Ober being evened out one way or another? My only issue with Eldridge is his K rate, but would be ecstatic if we got him. But other than Eldridge, I am not sure who the Twins would ask for? Randy Rodriguez? Erik Miller? Some other RP? They have publicly stated their focus is pitching, so maybe they would be willing to part with Eldridge. FWIW, there are other packages that would be very intriguing. I am not closing the door on trading for a cost controlled MLB option either…fun to speculate about.

Eldridge should certainly be in the discussion, especially since Devers is playing more 1B with 3B being locked down by Chapman. But the Giants may not want to move Eldridge and relinquish Devers to mostly DH duties. Beyond Eldridge, there isn't much else to get excited about in SF's minor league system. Most of the Giants top prospects are AA or lower, so we would most likely ask for a reliever. But there are also other potential 1B trade targets whose clubs make more sense, like the Cubs. The Cubs currently have Michael Bush, who is under team control through 2030 (I believe). They have 2 prospects in Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) and Jonathon Long (1B) who would be worth a conversation. I don't think the Cubs would part with both, but may be willing to part with one of them. Jonathon Long is interesting. Here are some stats AAA for Eldridge, Ballesteros, and Long. Player Age Level G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Eldridge 20 AAA 66 286 253 63 13 0 18 63 28 88 .249 .322 .514 .836 Ballesteros 21 AAA 114 509 446 141 29 1 13 76 49 67 .316 .385 .473 .858 Long 23 AAA 140 607 514 157 23 3 20 91 79 116 .305 .404 .479 .883 As you can see, Eldridge will hit HRs, but K rate is very high (31% at AAA, MiLB career 27% K rate) and a high walk rate (10%). On the other hand Long has a lower K rate (19%) and higher walk rate (13%), but won't hit as many HRs. Ballesteros is more of a pure hitter who doesn't K as much (13%), still has a high walk rate (10%), hit for a high average in AAA, but doesn't project to have the power of the other two. Ballesteros also has had success in a short MLB stint this year (.298 avg, 2 HR, 11 RBI, .868 OPS in 20g) Defensively, Long is better than Eldridge as it sits today. Eldridge only started playing 1B in 2024, with his first year in pro baseball playing OF. Eldridge has a very strong arm and was a 2 way player in high school. Ballesteros is in between Long and Eldridge. All three are below average runners. There are many others players that could be targeted, including cost controlled MLB C/1B. I just wanted to point out that there are other prospects that bring a similar value. Personally, I would be happy with any of the 3 discussed.

First, let me say that we agree that Clemens shouldn't be an everyday starter, but I do think he is a decent bench piece. I think perceptions on batting average need to change a bit. MLB league wide batting average was .245 for 2025. The days of multiple guys having averages >.300 with 30+ HRs are long gone. This year only 7 guys in MLB had averages at .300 or above (Judge, Bichette, Jacob Wilson, Springer, Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, and Yandy Diaz). Compare that to the year 2000 (I just picked a year). League average was .270 and 53 players hit at or above .300... Clemens really wasn't that far off from league average in terms of batting average. The difference between hitting .250 and .300 is about 1 hit/week. Put that in terms of Clemens batting average. He played May through September (5 months). Figure 4 weeks/month, that would be 20 more hits in 2025. Those 20 hits would bump his average up to .270, which is well above league average. He would have only needed 11 more hits over 5 months to be at league average. That tells you that the margin is very thin. There are other stats that support your statement (wRC+, xBA, etc...) that show he was at replacement level. But batting average is such a thin margin that our viewpoint can be a bit skewed.

Mendez hit a HR in his first AB of the AZ fall league tonight.

Luke was the only real choice for this award. For what it’s worth. Baseball America also named Keaschall on their all rookie team.

St. Louis is in dire straights and looking at what appears to be a significant multi-year rebuild. They want to trade Arenado and Sonny Gray. The Athletic and MLBTR have reported they are willing to eat money to trade them, so would cross them off your list. But understand your point that the package would have to be significant to get Ryan. SF, Red Sox, and Cubs are close. The Cubs have some interesting prospects that would be fun to see in a Twins uniform. Not sure they would part with Ballesteros, but he should be one Twins need to target. Johnathon Long (1B) is another prospect that the Twins could ask as part of a package. I watched him play a few games and he hits the ball hard. Long hit .305/ 20 HR/ 91 RBI/ 19% k rate/ 13% BB rate in 140g at AAA this year.

I believe the 40-man deadline is November 18th. I don't think the non-tender/arbitration deadline is set yet, as far as I can tell. Last year it was November 22, 2024. I imagine it will be a similar date this year.

This is my impression as well. Most here are saying the limited partners are hedge funds only caring about their ROI. However, I have seen it stated many times that the partners are families, one from MN and one from the east coast. The more important statement is that Falvey said in his recent press conference that the limited partners WILL be included in the offseason conversation and have a say as to how the Twins will proceed.

Those are important questions...and we won't know the answer until the moves are made.

I think you are correct in your assessment of the 4/$80M territory on Naylor. He is only 28, so I could see him trying for a longer term contract I think we would all love to lock down 1B for an extended period of time with Naylor, but I just don't think the Twins are going to spend that much. We could be wrong because they did ask for Christian Walker in return for Correa, but Houston shut that down. Walker is short term though with only 2 years remaining on his contract. I see Ryan O'Hearn as a more likely option at 1B. I see him more as a 3/$30M type of deal, with opt outs. As TD writers have suggested, Rhys Hoskins is also a possibility and may be cheaper than O'Hearn. This is only if we go the FA route for a veteran 1B. Falvey did say in his press conference about bringing in veterans to help the team win, but that has a host of different meanings.

I don't think the Twins will look at OF targets either, but we need help at C, 1B, and RP. I assume that if the right opportunities present themselves, the Twins will only trade either Pablo or Ryan, but not both. I may be wrong though. I also assume that the Twins want a top 100 prospect that can make a MLB impact right away or a highly regarded cost controlled guy that was a recent prospect. There are a myriad of possibilities of trade targets, so let's break it out by team (not every team, just a select few that could fit): Red Sox: We know the Red Sox love Ryan and tried to acquire him at the last minute. That package was rumored to include Peyton Tolle and Marcelo Mayer, but the Twins wanted a package headlined with Jarren Durran or Wilyer Abreu. If the Red Sox offer Jarren Duran in a trade I think the Twins will think hard about it, but not necessarily a target. Targets: Marcelo Mayer (INF) (#15 prospect in 2024), but he is coming off a season ending wrist injury. Trevor Story and Bregman may opt out and Red Sox may need his services. Peyton Tolle (LHP) (#27 Overall, #2 Bos, #3 LHP in MLB)- Can never have too much pitching. Climbed from A+ to MLB in his first full season of pro ball and made BOS roster for the wild card round. Pitched in last nights game. Came in with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and down 1 run in the bottom 8th inning. That gives you the idea in the confidence BOS has in him. Triston Casas (1B): Dealt with injuries the past few years, but still only 25 years old. At 23 he played 132 games with a .263 avg, 24 HR, 65 RBI, .856 OPS, 26.5% K rate. A true power hitting 1B that will K a decent amount, not a great runner, and also a below average fielder Yankees: There is quite a bit of talk about the Yankees moving Judge to 1B due to his elbow issues. The Yankees could inquire about Wallner or Larnach as well as Pablo/Ryan. If that is the case, that could make Ben Rice or Austin Wells available. The Yankees don't have a ton of high end prospects that are close to MLB ready. George Lombard is in AA and didn't hit particularly well there (.215). Spencer Jones is a LH hitting OF, and we are abundant in that regard. Targets: Ben Rice (C/1B): Hit .255 avg, 26 HR, 65 RBI, .836 OPS in 138g this year. Played 99g at 1B and 37g at C. Below avg catcher, average 1B, but is a pretty good hitter. His batting run value is in the 87th percentile in MLB this year. Austin Wells (C): Hit .219 avg, 21 HR, 71 RBI, .712 OPS in 126g this year. Very good defensive catcher. Threw out 24% base stealers. Can also play 1B...played 28g in college there. Cubs: The Cubs are interesting and they have quite a few targets we could go after. Targets: Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) (#50 MLB, #2 Cubs, #4C): Very good hitter. Hit .316 at AAA and .298 in 20g with the Cubs. Made the Wild Card Roster. Not a great defensive catcher, 18% CS rate at AAA. Can also play 1B and played 62 games there in the Minors Miguel Amaya (C/1B): Probably not a headliner, but could be thrown in because the Cubs have Ballesteros. Dealt with a few injuries this year but hit .281/4 HR/25 RBI/.814 OPS in 28g this year. Career .236 avg over 3 years. However, has a career 17% CS rate at MLB and 36% CS rate in minors. Can also play 1B Michael Bush (1B): Traditional power hitting 1B, but I don't think the Cubs will part from him. He hit .261 avg/34 HR/90 RBI/.866 OPS in 155g this year. He is a bit older at 28, but under team control through 2029. Johnathon Long (1B) (#7 Cubs, #6 1B): Traditional power hitting 1B. Hit .305/20 HR/ 91 RBI/.883 OPS this year at AAA. Slow runner and average fielder at 1B. Kevin Alcantara (OF) (#5 Cubs): If the Twins want a RH hitting OF, he may be the guy. Hit .266/17 HR/69 RBI/.819 OPS in AAA, but also has a 29.5% K rate at AAA. Hit .364 in 10 games this year with the Cubs. Mariners: The Mariners were in the hunt for Jhoan Duran. There has been some speculation as to who they offered but there really isn't many targets they have, but the one they have is very good. Most of their prospects are in A ball with the exception of Colt Emmerson, who is almost certainly off limits. Target: Harry Ford (C/OF) (#39 MLB, #4 SEA, #2 C): Harry Ford could bridge the gap until Tait arrives. He is blocked by Raleigh at the MLB level. Not your prototypical catcher because he has speed. Hit .283/16 HR/74 RBI/.868 OPS in AAA this year. Stole 35 bases at AA last year. Good defensive C that has thrown out 23% of potential stolen bases in the minors. These are just the targets that I have looked at in the past and I am sure there are plenty of others.

I also heard a statement from Falvey in an interview, but I can't seem to find it. Like you said, he used specifics on how a rotation would look with Pablo, Ryan, and Ober leading the group. He also said a nugget about adding to next years roster...but I can't find it and don't remember exactly how it was stated, so I didn't include it.

Falvey has been on record at least twice since the trade deadline saying he is looking forward to a 2026 rotation led by Pablo and Ryan. In all reality, CEOs/People in leadership positions rarely speak in certainties because directions change often, However, he did say the Twins don't have a clear direction as of yet going into 2026. Those conversations happen between now and into November. He also stated that those conversations WILL include the limited partners, so yes they have a say how the Twins move forward. We can go into the offseason with a clear plan. With that being said, plans can and will change. You never know what is going to happen when the phone starts ringing and conversations start flowing. We can say that we expect Pablo and Ryan to be back, but if another team really wants Joe or Pablo and drastically overpays, the Twins wouldn't turn down the offer, nor should they. If the Red Sox offered us Jarren Duran, Peyton Tolle/or Marcelo Mayer for Ryan, the Twins shouldn't turn down that offer. Purely hypothetical and a gross overpay by Boston but it illustrates my point. For what its worth, Falvey also stated that the new manager will have to work with developing talent at the major league level, but also with veteran guys that they bring in to help win. That tells me they are looking to add, but also has a whole host of meanings so we need to wait to see how that shakes out. Jeremy Zoll was asked if there are any players that are untradeable. He reiterated Buck has a full no trade clause and Buck is adamant about being a Twin for life. They love Buck and excited he feels that way. He then went on to state that to speak on any other individual guy would be ill advised because they have to evaluate each and every opportunity. Decoding what both Falvey and Zoll stated = Nobody is off the table (other than Buck), but the asking price will be very high and teams may not want to pay. Personally, I hope both Pablo and Joe are back for 2026.

Agree, any of those choices would be good. I will also add Scott Servais to your list and I would put him right behind Skip Schumacher in terms of desirability. He isn't young (58), but has experience in a very similar situation with the Mariners. He managed the Mariners from 2016-2024 and now works in player development for the Padres. After the 2018 season, the Mariners traded away Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and others...they went into rebuilding mode. At the 2019 deadline, they traded away 3 more pitchers and finally finishing 2019 with 68 wins. He used 2020 as a development year and had the Mariners back to a 90 win team by 2021. He is a local guy (La Crosse) who meets all criteria you laid out except being relatively young, but I don't see 58 as being old per say.