Chembry

I agree with you and I continually state that fact to many of the people here on TD. Especially to ones who are ready to cut Roden after 12G in a Twins uniform and 55G overall in MLB. My preference would be to trade for a 1B prospect or sign a FA. If we go the FA route, Lowe would be my preference over any other current FA (other than Alonso, but that isn't happening) However, we have a surplus of OF bats and Kody Clemens as the current starter at 1B. The argument could be made that if Emmanuel Rodriguez (or someone else) pushes his way onto the roster out of spring, another OF bat could be moved around to accommodate if necessary. The most likely of those in the current OF picture would be Roden, because he has experience at 1B. That frees up Clemens to step into the utility role where he is much better suited. Wallner or Larnach will never be a 1B, much to the dismay of many here on TD. The Twins must improve both their offense and defense. The goal is to put the best 9 bats in the lineup without sacrificing defense. With the surplus of OF bats, and the potential upside to many of those bats, that may require some positional flexibility, like moving Roden to 1B to put the best lineup on the field on a daily basis.

Defensive metrics can be a bit funny. Lowe won a GG in 2023 and was a finalist in 2024. He won’t be a defensive liability.

I think $10M is too much for Lowe. His salary last year was $10.5M and the Nationals couldn't find a trade partner for him. My guess is he could be had at $6-8M/yr coming off the worst season of his career. Pure speculation of course, but I think precedence has already been set that $10M is too much.

My first choice would be to trade for a 1B prospect as well, and there are plenty available. Guys like Eldridge. Briceno, Ballesteros, Tre' Morgan, probably Condon or Collier would headline the trade and would probably require Ryan in return. I seriously doubt Basallo is available. In a vacuum, guys like Ryan Clifford, Jonathon Long, Tyler Locklear, Abimelec Ortiz, Triston Casas wouldn't require the likes or Ryan or Lopez to acquire and could help the team.

Roden played 1B in college and summer ball between college seasons. He played more games at first in college than any other single position.

I don’t know…I updated my previous post to say that I don’t follow whoever that is…it showed up on my feed. That’s why I said I don’t know if there is any truth to it.

Don’t know if there is any truth to this…It just showed up on my feed, I don’t follow whoever that is

I agree a consistent losing team will erode a fanbase. But the relocation of the A’s has nothing to do with the team being young. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5798535/2024/09/27/oakland-as-final-game-coliseum-thompson/ https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38442355/story-how-all-went-south-las-vegas https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/sep/26/oakland-athletics-final-game-john-fisher

I understand your point on 2025. Lowe had a down year for sure. He definitely isn't worth $10M ($13.5M projected arbitration) and that's why he was DFA'd. But if you look at 2021-2024, Lowe's stats are similar, if not better than Arraez in most regards, other than BA. Plus Lowe won a GG at 1st in 2023. For me, it comes down to more power, while maintaining a high OBP, which Lowe has done prior to his stint with the Nats. He went right back with Boston. It just comes down to a difference of opinion. Like I said in a previous post, I would rather have the Twins trade for a young 1B, but I wouldn't be upset with Lowe or Arraez. But I think they could get Lowe cheaper. Arraez Season Team G PA AB HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2021 MIN 121 479 428 2 0.294 0.357 0.376 0.733 105 2022 MIN 144 603 547 8 0.316 0.375 0.42 0.795 128 2023 MIA 147 617 574 10 0.354 0.393 0.469 0.861 128 2024 2TM 150 672 637 4 0.314 0.346 0.392 0.739 107 Lowe Season Team G PA AB HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2021 TEX 157 642 557 18 0.264 0.357 0.415 0.771 112 2022 TEX 157 645 593 27 0.302 0.358 0.492 0.851 139 2023 TEX 161 724 623 17 0.262 0.36 0.414 0.775 114 2024 TEX 140 565 486 16 0.265 0.361 0.401 0.762 123

I saw a post on X this morning that Twins sources are indicating a payroll of $100-130M. I have no idea how truthful, how reliable this person is, or even how reliable their source is. I took it with a grain of salt.

What's interesting about Ober's velocity, is that Perkins specifically mentioned (either during TV or radio broadcasts, I can't quite remember) that Ober would consistently hit 92-93 during his bullpen sessions...even late into the season. Why didn't that transfer into games? I think there is more to the story than just mechanics. We know he was dealing with hip issues since spring training last year. I wouldn't be surprised if that lingered even when coming back off the IL in July.

Reese McGuire? I don't think the Cubs want Larnach, but maybe Topa? He is a good defensive catcher.

I appreciate the logic and understand your point. I agree, we shouldn't consider any more 1 year contracts. But I disagree he will have no trade value. That all depends on the contract he signs. If he signs a $9M AAV contract (which probably won't happen), yes he will have no trade value and the Twins should be out. If he signs a $6M AAV, he will have some trade value, especially if the contract has options. The Nationals are out because of his $10M contract, but they also have a prospect ready to step into that role (Yohandy Morales). The Twins don't have that internal option. Fedko could considered the closest possible internal option, but he only has played 33g at 1B. Maybe the Twins give Fedko a chance, but Baseball America just listed Fedko a "player to know" for the rule 5 draft. There isn't any guarantee that he will be with the Twins in a month. My argument is that Lowe's level of production (outside of 2025) are better than the next best free agent option O'Hearn. O'Hearn has 2 seasons of 2 WAR production or better (2024 a 2.0 and 2025 a 2.4). Lowe has 4 seasons above 2.0 (2021-2024 between 2.3-3.2). Since we don't have a definitive option, and Clemens is more of a utility guy, why not sign Lowe to a 2-year deal? Assuming he would agree to a 2 year contract with options since he is coming off a bad season? He isn't going to command $10M/yr, that has already been established. He will be quite a bit cheaper than that. He isn't blocking any prospect. Unless we trade for a 1B prospect, we will be playing Clemons and Julien at 1B and not investing in the future roster anyway. Both of which are nowhere near the level of Lowe. Mendez has yet, to play 1B and more than likely wouldn't be ready defensively in 2026 anyway. Wallner isn't a 1B and will never be. Roden has played 1B in the past, so that is an option. My preferred choice would be to trade for a 1B prospect or for Casas. I know many people disagree with Casas, but who knows if that is going to happen. Signing Lowe would be a my next choice, over O'Hearn.

To all those who wouldn't be in on Lowe, can I ask why? Is it just because he bats LH? Or because you generally think he is overrated? Cost too much? I am generally curious. He will be a FA in a few days and won't command a $10M salary...Nobody wanted to pick him up at the deadline for $10M. My guess right now is he will get between $6-8M/year. He is a solid 1B and has been for his entire career. He has only one stint on the IL and that was a 30day stint in 2024. He is an everyday 1B that doesn't have to be platooned. Here is his career offensive stats and splits: I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ vs RHP 777 2433 2133 304 568 99 10 82 300 14 2 273 577 .266 .351 .437 .789 933 49 14 0 13 11 12 .327 104 vs LHP 494 997 885 94 228 38 3 25 113 1 0 103 259 .258 .337 .392 .729 347 17 5 0 4 0 8 .336 90 Defensively, over the last 3 years he has averaged 2OAA (bad 2025 of -5 OAA). If you look at DRS, he averages 0 defensive runs saved in the past 3 years (again a bad 2025). He isn't a defensive liability. In fact, given the Twins track record the past 2 years, that puts him the odds on favorite to win a GG (if the Twins sign him). With the exception of 2025, he has been a consistent 2-3 WAR level player.

I agree with most of what you said. Personally, I want to see change. I don't want to see the same roster we ran out in Aug/Sep. Young isn't necessarily bad. I think the roster you constructed has the chance to be very good in a few years. I was planning on doing another roster construction trading Ryan to the Mets for Benge, Williams, and Clifford. Williams could be swapped with Sproat or Tong, but you get the idea. In my opinion, the worst thing the FO can do is stand pat. I want to see them make an effort to address the roster and try to improve. Whether that through trade or free agency. I have my doubts it will be through free agency, so that would need to occur through trade.

I just quoted what Falvey stated. I don't know what language is in their contracts or exactly how much each minority partner own. None of us do. But, this is the second time Falvey has stated the "Limited Partners" will be consulted in terms of payroll/roster construction. At the end of the year press conference Falvey stated "We will talk about this offseason plan as well as '26, '27, '28 and beyond. This will be a different version of that conversation with Limited Partners involved in a way that hasn't happened to date". More broadly, if I invested in a product, I would have my views on how best to grow that investment. Given what Falvey has stated twice, the Limited Partners will be consulted on payroll/roster construction. Whether they have any sway remains to be seen. I understand your point though. We don't know any specifics of that relationship and we probably never will.

The A's youth has nothing to do with them leaving Oakland. The lease was up on the Coliseum and they were trying get a new stadium built. There was also discontent between the fan base and the owners. I travel to Sacramento at least once a month for business. I have caught many A's games while there as well as Sacramento River Cats and the fan base. I played college baseball and played in better stadiums than the Coliseum. It is a horrible place to watch baseball. The fanbase was very apathetic. They were upset that Fisher never invested in the team and consistently in rebuild mode. Over time fans stopped showing up. Oakland finally gave the A's a site and $774M to build a stadium, then Fisher said no, they are moving to Vegas. He blamed fans and the city for the move. The funding he got for the Vegas stadium is $300M less that what Oakland was going to give them... The move has nothing to do with the youth or the talent of the team. Oakland has a very talented group of young guys (Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom, Butler).

What's interesting about Ober's velocity, is that Perkins specifically mentioned (either during TV or radio broadcasts, I can't quite remember) that Ober would consistently hit 92-93 during his bullpen sessions...even late into the season. Why didn't that transfer into games? I think there is more to the story than just mechanics. We know he was dealing with hip issues since spring training last year. I wouldn't be surprised if that lingered even when coming back off the IL in July.

That is definitely going young!

I think it was a better to be safe than sorry situation. They just traded for him and he has hit at every level so far. Would be a stretch for any club to pick him, but better to be safe.

He is solid, but yeah that’s the reason Boston DFA’d him. Along with pursuing Alonso. I think Lowe is scheduled for a 4th arb year as well, but not sure on that. Another reason to let him hit free agency first.

Ramon Urias was also dfa’d by the Astros…he may be worth a look as well.

Probably worth a flier, but I don’t think that happens at the $13.5M projected salary for next year. More than likely let him hit FA then try to negotiate.

Is is possible to believe that Falvey thought of the deadline as a retool? Falvey and other GMs directly stated at the GM meetings that the Twins were specifically asking for MLB talent or MLB ready guys. That is the reason we got Abel, Bradley, Roden, and Outman (I cringe saying that name)...That's the reason the Twins were asking for Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu from Boston... The Twins knew how much payroll they cut and knew they would be at approximately $90M going into 2026. Falvey probably assumed with the pending sale at the time, the payroll would be at the same level (about $135M) going into 2026. The Twins didn't get pulled off the market until August 13th. If that were reasonable, that would give the Twins about $40-50M to spend this off season. To be honest, that was probably a reasonable assumption by Falvey at the time. This was stated on a Gleeman and the Geek podcast. We could put a fairly competitive team on the field adding $40M in payroll to this roster (FA 1B, backup C, a few RP, a FA SS). If payroll is cut back, This would be the 2nd time in 3 years the rug was pulled out from under Falvey. There is no way that Falvey would have signed Correa to the contract he did knowing the payroll was going to be slashed, significantly inhibiting his ability put a competitive team on the field. I am not defending Falvey in any way...He has made many mistakes, but putting everything into context, it makes sense. Given what we know now, this offseason will tell us everything. Shelton said he talked with the Pohlads/Falvey about payroll and "heard what he wanted to make him want the job". Take that as you wish. I can't see Shelton taking the job without some sort of agreement on investment into the roster. Personally, I don't want them to run it back. I want to see changes. I would like to see them add to payroll, but also trade for a 1B or C prospect...Try to improve not only for 2026, but also 2027 and beyond. That doesn't necessarily have to be a full on rebuild, but it does involve tough choices on Lopez/Ryan/Ober, Lewis, Lee etc... In my opinion, the worst thing they can do is stand pat on position players and only add a few relievers.