Cody Christie

Yes, I was using players that are considered among the team's top prospects. Those sites tend to only have current/future values for the top players in the system.

Spring training is quickly coming to a close, leaving the Twins' front office with some final decisions about the Opening Day roster. Here are my updated projection for the 26 players coming north with the team next week. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Like many teams, the Twins will employ a two-catcher system behind the plate. Minnesota signed Vazquez to a 3-year, $30 million deal this winter, so it seems likely for him to get a higher percentage of the playing time. In his last three full seasons, Vazquez has averaged over 130 games played, and he's been above average at controlling the running game. Jeffers has shown some pop in his bat this spring, with four of his six hits being for extra bases. Veteran catchers like Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner, and Chance Sisco were non-roster invitees this spring, and one of them will get an opportunity if/when there is an injury. Infielders (5): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff**, Jose Miranda, Donovan Solano Jorge Polanco is the biggest name not listed among the team's projected Opening Day roster. Derek Falvey told reporters on Sunday that Polanco might not be ready to start the regular season on time. He has lingering soreness in his left knee, an injury that ended his 2022 season. Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano will see time at second base until Polanco is ready to return. Kirilloff is also not guaranteed to break camp with the club, but he has played in minor league games over the weekend. The Twins will likely give him regular rest to start the year, with Gallo and Solano starting games at first base. Top prospects like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien can add depth to this group when needed. Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach**, Michael A. Taylor The Twins focused on adding strong defenders to the roster, with Gallo and Taylor being Gold Glove winners. Buxton slowly worked his way into game action this spring and should be as close to 100% as possible. Larnach wasn't guaranteed an Opening Day spot and entered the picture with Polanco's injury. There was some concern after Gordon suffered an ankle injury earlier in camp, but the injury won't hinder his availability at the season's start. Matt Wallner, the organization's reigning MiLB Player of the Year, is the team's best power prospect, and he will be waiting for a call-up back to the big leagues. Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan Bailey Ober has been terrific this spring, but the Twins aren't going to utilize a six-man rotation. St. Paul's rotation is set up to be strong, with Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson at the top. The front office set up this rotation to have depth when a starter misses time with an injury. Three veteran starting pitchers (Gray, Mahle, and Maeda) are entering a contract year, so they will be eager to prove that previous injuries and age don't factor into their long-term value. The Twins project to have one of the club's best rotations of the last 25 years, but health questions will continue to follow this group throughout the season. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, Jovani Moran, Jeff Hoffman** Trevor Megill is the most significant change among this group from earlier in the offseason. The Twins optioned him to the minor leagues on Sunday, opening an opportunity for another pitcher. Megill had a rough spring by allowing eight earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Dennis Santana held a 40-man roster spot until the Twins lost him on waivers to the Mets at the end of last week. Minnesota signed Hoffman to a minor league deal at the end of February, and he has an 8-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in spring action. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. The Twins used 39 pitchers last season so multiple relievers will make the trip back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? Do you agree that these will be the 26 players coming north with the team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Hitting for power has become an even more critical tool in an age of exit velocities and barrel rates. Here are five Twins prospects to watch during the 2023 season because of their power tool. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have altered their roster recently since setting MLB's all-time home run record in 2019. Last season, Minnesota didn't have any 30-home-run hitters, so the last two Twins hitters with 30 homers were Jorge Polanco (33 HR) and Miguel Sano (30 HR) in 2021. The five prospects below can join the 30-homer club when given a chance at the big-league level in the years ahead. Scouts and front office personnel use a 20-80 scale to evaluate players' tools. This ranking system also projects how those tools will improve as the player develops. Below are the top five Twins prospects regarding current and future power potential. 5. Royce Lewis, SS/OF Current Power/Future Power: 55/60 Lewis is recovering from his second ACL surgery in as many seasons, but he has many skills to be considered a five-tool player. Throughout the rehab process, he has added muscle to his frame, and the Twins saw some of those results in 2022. Last season, he hit .313/.405/.534 (.940) with 12 doubles and five home runs in 34 Triple-A games. Lewis showed flashes of his power in 12 big-league games by going 12-for-40 (.300 BA) with four doubles and two home runs. Minnesota hopes to have Lewis back in the line-up for the second half of the 2023 season. 4. Brooks Lee, SS Current Power/Future Power: 55/60 Lee makes such consistent contact that power is natural and can spray the ball to all fields. In his final two collegiate seasons, he averaged over 40 extra-base hits with a 1.073 OPS. Lee showed flashes of his power potential during his professional debut. He combined for ten extra-base hits and an .839 OPS in 31 games. During spring training, Lee has impressed many, including Carlos Correa, with his offensive approach and work ethic. He is likely heading to Double-A to start the season, but he may debut during the 2023 season. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Current Power/Future Power: 55/65 Rodriguez is one of the most exciting prospects in the Twins system, and he could be a monster power hitter. He was a breakout prospect at Low-A last season while hitting .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with more walks (57) than strikeouts (52). The Florida State League can be a challenging environment for hitters, but Rodriguez shined with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs. He's entering his age-20 season, and he hopes to add even more muscle to his frame to increase his power. By this time next season, he has a chance to be the Twins' top-rated prospect and a global top-20 prospect. 2. Aaron Sabato, 1B/DH Current Power/Future Power: 60/60 The Twins drafted Sabato for one reason, his tremendous power potential. The pandemic limited his college career, but he posted a 1.158 OPS in 83 games. Last season, he hit .215/.336/.438 (.774) with 17 doubles and 22 home runs between High-A and Double-A. Sabato will spend the 2023 season in the minor's upper levels as he attempts to compile a breakout season. He is the lowest-rated prospect on this list, but the current front office drafted him in the first round, so they will give him every opportunity to find success. 1. Matt Wallner, OF Current Power/Future Power: 65/65 Wallner is coming off a season where he was named the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 128 minor league games, he hit .277/.412/.542 (953) with 32 doubles, four triples, and 27 home runs. The Twins called him up in September, and he went 13-for-57 (.228) with five extra-base hits and a 105 OPS+ in 18 games. Minnesota's added depth at the big-league level has pushed Wallner down the organizational depth chart, but he's had fewer than 200 at-bats in Triple-A. Wallner will start the year in St. Paul, with his powerful swing being one injury away from the big leagues. Who do you think has the best power in the Twins system? Should someone else make the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are entering the final year of their current television contract, but Bally Sports' parent company recently filed for bankruptcy. What does this mean for the Twins and their fans? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Diamond Sports, the parent company of Bally Sports North, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection earlier this week. In a statement, they said the regional sports channels would continue to operate, but that might not paint the complete picture of fans' ability to watch games this season. There are long-term ramifications that will impact the way viewers consume sports on television. What's the Problem? Diamond Sports purchased the regional sports networks at a time when customers continue to cord-cut and search for streaming options. With fewer viewers, there is a decrease in revenue from ad sales and cable contracts. Baseball has relied on regional sports networks for decades, but fans aren't paying for traditional cable packages. Some teams lose money annually, which doesn't help Diamond stay profitable. According to the New York Post, Diamond plans to reject the contracts of four teams that cost more to operate than they bring in with cable contracts and ads. Luckily, the Twins aren't among the four teams operating in the red. Currently, the Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks are the teams most likely to have their contracts rejected due to bankruptcy proceedings. The Padres lose the most money at $20 million annually. Plans have yet to be finalized about how to deal with MLB's archaic blackout restrictions. Currently, out-of-market games can be streamed on the MLB.TV app, but that doesn't help local markets. MLB is losing exposure with cable companies not carrying games and fewer fans attending games. What's the Solution? Major League Baseball has known for quite some time that Diamond Sports was in financial trouble. Last month, the company missed an interest payment of nearly $140 million to creditors. MLB jumped into action and hired former regional sports network executives, so they could take over broadcasting duties if necessary. MLB did try to acquire the rights to all 14 regional sports networks, but Diamond turned down the offer. MLB plans to take over the local broadcasts of the teams being dropped by Diamond and stream games for free in those markets. They will try negotiating with other cable companies for lower contracts, but there is no guarantee that another company will be available on short notice. MLB plans to offer a streaming service for around $15 per month if a deal is reached. Eventually, this time of overarching streaming service is baseball's best bet to help the game to grow in a cord-cutting culture. How will Bally Sports' bankruptcy impact the Twins? Diamond plans to continue broadcasting games for teams earning them a profit, so there will likely be little change to how fans consume games in 2023. At TwinsFest, Dave St. Peter told fans that the issues with Diamond are "not a risk to short-term production and distribution of Bally's broadcasts." The Twins' deal with BSN ends following the upcoming season, so many eyes across baseball will be on the Twins and how they proceed before the 2024 season. Minnesota's current contract is for 12 years and $480 million, which pays the club around $40 million annually. For comparison, the Padres signed a 20-year deal in 2012 with average annual payments in the $50-75 million range. Historically, the Twin Cities has fewer people utilizing cable services, resulting in smaller television deals for the Twins. Minnesota is the only current MLB negotiating with Bally Sports, which can be a commitment for a decade or longer. If BSN isn't an option, the Twins can look to other regional sports networks like Comcast or AT&T. In the next decade, MLB viewership will continue to evolve, and this is one of the first steps in the process. For 2023, Twins fans should be able to continue to watch on Bally Sports North, with MLB providing backup services if BSN fails to meet its contract. How do you plan to watch Twins games this season? Will the Twins find a different network for 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Earlier this week, the Diamondbacks agreed to terms with Corbin Carroll after only 32 big-league games. Would the Twins consider a similar deal with Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis? Image courtesy of William Parmeter The Diamondbacks and top prospect Corbin Carroll agreed to terms on a massive extension earlier this week. Carroll is guaranteed $111 million over the next eight seasons. The deal also includes a $28 million club option for the 2031 season and up to $20 million in escalators between the 2029-31 seasons. The escalator clauses are tied to his finishes in awards voting throughout the deal. He will receive a $5 million signing bonus and a $1 million base salary in 2023. Moving forward, he will earn $3 million in 2024, $5 million in 2025, $10 million in 2026, $12 million in 2027, $14 million in 2028, and $28 for the deal's final two seasons (2028-29). In 2031, the $28 million club option contains a $5 million buyout. Overall, the deal buys out the remainder of Carroll's team-controlled seasons and an additional two free-agent years. It is the largest contract ever signed by a player with fewer than 100 days of MLB service time. Last season, the Braves signed rookie center fielder Michael Harris to an eight-year, $72 million contract extension with club options for 2031-32. He will earn $5 million per season in 2023-24, $8 million annually in 2025-26, $9 million in 2027, $10 million per season in 2028-29, and $12 million in 2030. His 2031 option is $15 million, and his 2032 option is $20 million with $5 million buyouts. Harris is one of many young Braves players to sign an extension early in their big-league careers. Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis have been widely considered the team's top two prospects for the Twins, including being ranked number one and two at Twins Daily. There is some debate about who should be in the top spot, with our voters having them finish in a nearly unbreakable tie. Lee ranks higher than Lewis on nearly every national top-100 list, but the future is bright for both players. Lewis has limited big-league experience, and Lee has a chance to debut in 2023. Brooks Lee, SS Lee is roughly the same age as Harris and Carroll, with his college experience being the most significant difference between the players. Lee could have turned pro in the same draft as the other two players, but he wanted to play collegiately for his father at Cal Poly. In three college seasons, he hit .351/.426/.647 (1.073), and many evaluators considered him the best college hitter in the 2022 MLB Draft. Minnesota showed faith in him during his professional debut by promoting him to Wichita for the team's run in the Double-A playoffs. There is a wide range of outcomes for Lee's development in 2023. The Twins will likely start him at Double-A to begin the year, and he can spend most of the season getting comfortable at that level. He can also hit his way onto the big-league roster at some point during the coming campaign. The Braves worked on Harris' extension on the way to him winning the NL Rookie of the Year. Minnesota could do something similar with Lee, but there are no guarantees that he will debut in 2023. Royce Lewis, SS/OF Lewis is two years older than the other players mentioned above, so a long-term deal comes with some questions. He's had two ACL surgeries since turning pro, which means the Twins have team control over Lewis through the 2028 season when he is 29 years old. Does Minnesota want to give Lewis guaranteed money into his early-30s? Would Lewis agree to a deal less than what Atlanta gave Harris? His injury history makes a long-term deal tricky for both sides to find common ground. Last season, Lewis returned strongly from his first ACL surgery by hitting .313/.405/.534 (.940) in 34 Triple-A games. He was equally impressive in his big-league debut, with a 145 OPS+ through his first 41 plate appearances. Lewis is known for his positive attitude and strong leadership skills, so that might be something to invest in from the Twins' perspective. The Twins are in a different winning window than the Diamondbacks, so an extension similar to Carroll might not be in the team's best interest. Arizona is signing Carroll to be the face of the franchise while they rebuild and add more young talent. Harris' deal is probably closer to what the Twins would consider, but there is no rush to extend Lee or Lewis. Would you offer a Carroll- or Harris-style extension to Lee or Lewis? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

I don't think they want Ober to pitch out of the bullpen. He's been successful as a starter and they want to keep him in that role. Ober has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter for multiple seasons which provides tremendous value.

I mentioned Edwin Diaz in the article and his massive contract with the Mets. Now he's out for the year with a knee injury. The Twins obviously aren't going to pay Duran like Diaz, but injuries are part of the game. Does his injury change your perspective on giving Duran an extension?

Fans can focus on prospects that never reach their full potential, but that doesn't always paint a complete picture of an organization's development process. Here are three development success stories from players that will impact the Twins in 2023. Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports Few players follow a linear path to becoming a big-league regular. Multiple obstacles can hinder a player's development, and every team is still dealing with a lost minor-league season in 2020. Some players might never reach their full potential because of the development lost during the pandemic. However, the Twins have seen three players develop into regular pieces of the big-league roster after the pandemic. Nick Gordon, UTL Gordon was a top-five pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, so some might not call him a development success story because teams expect high draft picks to produce. However, there were points when Gordon's future looked bleak. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster leading into the 2019 season, but that was coming off a season where he posted a .653 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A. Gordon was limited to 70 games in 2019 and saw a power surge at Triple-A with 36 extra-base hits and a .801 OPS. The 2020 season was supposed to be the year Gordon made his big-league debut. Instead, he dealt with a bad case of COVID and gastritis, which caused him to drop weight. Gordon couldn't even train at the team's alternate site because he was attempting to get healthy. Over the next two seasons, there were points where the Twins were likely close to removing Gordon from the 40-man roster. He was entering his mid-20s, and the previous regime drafted him, so this front office didn't have any allegiance to him. It was a low point in his career. Injuries kept the Twins from winning the AL Central in 2022 but also offered Gordon an opportunity to become a regular player. Finally healthy, he posted a 113 OPS+ with 28 doubles, four triples, and nine home runs in 136 games. He showed the ability to play multiple defensive positions, and there may be even more power in his swing. Gordon worked closely with first-year hitting coach David Popkins to combine data and mechanical tweaks to increase his power numbers. Gordon posted a .865 OPS with five home runs and 13 doubles from August 4-September 20, 2022. If Gordon can harness that power, he will be a critical piece to the Twins line-up for years. Bailey Ober, SP For various reasons, Ober has been a unicorn throughout his professional career. The Twins drafted him with the 346th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, so expectations have been relatively low. He's listed at 6-foot-9 and was previously considered a soft-tosser because his fastball sat in the upper-80s. Radar readings have never told Ober's entire story. He is so tall that he releases the ball closer to the plate, which causes some deception for the batter. Ober has a solid four-pitch mix, but everything works off his fastball. Last season, Ober threw his fastball less often (down 9% from 2021) and saw increased use of his slider. His fastball averaged 91.5 MPH, and batters posted a .433 SLG versus the pitch. His slider resulted in 25 strikeouts and a .261 SLG in 69 at-bats. Ober was limited to 11 starts in 2022 because of a groin injury that kept him out of the big leagues from June 1 to September 16. He ended the year with five solid September starts, and the Twins hope he can build off of that in 2023. Many Twins pitchers have been touting high velocities this spring, but Ober's increased fastball velocity is intriguing. So far in spring training, he is averaging over 93 MPH with his four-seamer. This velocity jump will play even better with his length because he releases the ball closer to the plate than other pitchers. Adding velocity (via release extension and/or refining mechanics) is one skill set the Twins have shown the ability to help their pitching prospects to improve their overall pitch quality. Ober's performance has been so good the Twins are considering opening the season with a six-man rotation. He might be one of the team's biggest x-factors if he can stay healthy. Griffin Jax, RP The Twins selected Jax in the third round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of the United States Air Force Academy. As a higher draft pick, Minnesota likely hoped Jax would develop into a starting pitcher, and that's how he was used throughout his minor-league career. In 2019, he made 23 starts (127 1/3 innings) between Double- and Triple-A with a 2.90 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 94-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He may have been able to break into the big leagues in 2020, but the shortened season didn't allow that to happen. Jax debuted during the 2021 season but struggled to put it all together as a starter. In 18 games (14 starts), he posted a 6.37 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. He allowed too many home runs (2.5 HR/9) and did not strike out enough batters (7.1 K/9). His strikeout rate had been low throughout his professional career, which is one reason the Twins decided it was time to try him in the bullpen. Entering last season, he had only made ten professional appearances as a reliever. The Twins had a clear message for Jax in his transition: to increase his slider usage by over 15%. His fastball and slider velocity increased by roughly three miles per hour for 2022, and he has been showcasing even higher velocities this spring. Finding dominant late-inning relievers is challenging for a team, making Jax a success story. Who will be the next development success stories in the Twins organization? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have traded for multiple pitchers to bolster their starting rotation in recent years. Now, three of those arms are entering a contract season. Will the Twins try to re-sign any of these veterans? Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez- USA Today Sports (Mahle), Vincent Carchietta- USA Today Sports (Gray), William Parmeter (Maeda) Minnesota's front office is still waiting on its pitching pipeline to produce consistent big-league-caliber pitchers. Because of this, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have dipped into the team's farm system to trade for veteran pitchers to add to the big-league roster. The Twins have a trio of veteran pitchers in their last season of team control. Will the Twins try to extend these arms? The answer is complicated. Tyler Mahle Age: 28 Stats (2020-22): 66 G, 3.95 ERA, 348 1/3 IP, 10.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 117 ERA+ Mahle will likely get the longest free-agent contract because of his age and recent performance. Like many free-agent pitchers, there is risk involved with signing him to a long-term deal. Shoulder issues caused him to have multiple stints on the IL last season. He blames some of last season's struggles on the shorter spring training due to the lockout. So far this spring, his velocity has returned to previous levels, but he has only pitched three innings. If healthy, he is the most likely pitcher in this group to get an extension, but the Twins might also want to avoid a long-term deal because of his injury history. Extension Probability: Medium Sonny Gray Age: 33 Stats (2020-22): 61 G, 3.68 ERA, 311 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 120 ERA+ Gray has never reached free agency because he signed his current five-year, $50.7 million extension as part of his trade from the Yankees to the Reds. He's made over $60 million in his career, so this might be his lone opportunity to test the free-agent waters. He has become a leader on the pitching staff, which might be why the Twins try to sign him to an extension. Gray posted terrific numbers last season with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, but he was limited to fewer than 120 innings because of multiple IL stints. For better or worse, the Twins have been hesitant to hand out multi-year contracts to starting pitchers under the current regime. Extension Probability: Medium Kenta Maeda Age: 35 Stats (2020-22): 32 G, 3.90 ERA, 173 IP, 10.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 110 ERA+ Maeda is returning from Tommy John surgery this season, but he is not guaranteed to return to his previous form. He is entering his age-35 season, and the Twins are sticking with him as a starting pitcher. It will be interesting to see if he stays in the rotation for the entire season or if he will be pushed to the bullpen by other younger starters. Because of his age, Maeda will likely get the shortest free-agent deal out of these three pitchers. The Twins might be interested in a team-friendly deal, but it will be based on his 2023 performance. He's been a dominant reliever in previous seasons, and that might be a role he needs to embrace if he wants to pitch into his late-30s. Extension Probability: Low Qualifying Offer Possibility Since these players have yet to reach free agency, the Twins can offer any of them a Qualifying Offer. If accepted, the Twins would be on the hook for a one-year deal for around $19-20 million for the 2024 season. This is likely a higher value than these pitchers will get on the open market in a multi-year deal, but it's only a one-year commitment which might be enticing for the Twins. If the offer is rejected, Minnesota will get a compensation pick that equates to a late first-round selection. Back in 2019, the Twins offered Jake Odorizzi a qualifying offer which was a one-year, $17.8 million deal. He accepted the offer, but the pandemic took away a large chunk of the 2020 season. Odorizzi only made four starts for the Twins in 2020 before leaving in free agency the following winter. It was a safe one-year deal from the Twins' perspective, even if his performance didn't match his contract. The qualifying offer can be a good fit for the right player, especially since all three pitchers will be looking for multi-year deals. Do you think the Twins will try and extend any of these players? Will the Twins offer any of them the qualifying offer? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

During spring training, lots of focus is rightly or wrongly placed on questions facing the big-league roster. However, some of the team's top five prospects have questions to answer at the start of the 2023 campaign. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports In an ideal world, every top Twins prospect would reach their full potential and become a star. That obviously doesn't happen, but fans can still look to the minors for hope for the future. Twins Daily's top five prospects face an important development season in 2023 with questions surrounding their future. Brooks Lee: Will he make his big-league debut? TD Prospect Ranking: 1 Lee has been the talk of spring training, with players like Carlos Correa gushing over his performance. Many outlets, including Twins Daily, rank him as the organization's top prospect, and he's barely played 30 games in his professional career. He shot through three different levels during his pro debut and finished the year impacting the Double-A line-up in the playoffs. He's likely heading back to Wichita to start the season, and prospects of his caliber don't necessarily need time at Triple-A. The Twins don't need to rush him to the big leagues, but his performance might dictate a call-up at some point during the 2023 season. Royce Lewis: How will the team handle him when he is healthy? TD Prospect Ranking: 2 Lewis showed flashes of his five-tool talent during his big-league debut, but it was a small sample size before he injured his ACL for the second consecutive season. He should be back by the middle of the 2023 season, and it will be interesting to see how the club treats him when he is fully healthy. Will they treat him like a minor leaguer and make him prove his bat is ready with an extended stay at Triple-A? Or will they immediately add him to the big-league roster when he completes his rehab assignment? Regardless of the team's path, Lewis can boost the line-up in the second half. Emmanuel Rodriguez: Does he have the highest ceiling of any Twins prospect? TD Prospect Ranking: 3 There is plenty of hype surrounding Rodriguez and his breakout performance at Low-A in 2023. As a 19-year-old, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs. He drew more walks (57 BB) than strikeouts (52 K) in 199 plate appearances. His season was cut short by a knee meniscus injury that required surgery in June. Rodriguez is a long way from Target Field, and he has plenty of development left to make in the years ahead. However, it's hard not to get excited about a prospect of his caliber. If he continues progressing, he can be a top-15 global prospect entering the 2024 season. Marco Raya: Can his body type hold up with more innings? TD Prospect Ranking: 4 Raya is similar in size to former Twins pitcher Jose Berrios, so evaluators tend to question whether pitchers of his body type can hold up to the rigors of more professional innings. Minnesota drafted him in 2020, but he missed the 2021 season with shoulder soreness. He has been limited to 65 innings in his professional career but had a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. Baseball America ranked Raya as baseball's 53rd-best prospect entering the season, which was his lone top-100 appearance. A good goal for this season would be to crack the 100-inning mark, but the Twins will continue to monitor his usage as he gets closer to Target Field. Edouard Julien: How quickly can he impact the big-league roster? TD Prospect Ranking: 5 Twins fans have seen what kind of impact Julien can have on games earlier during spring training. During the WBC, he will be on Canada's roster with a chance to put his name on the international map. He spent all of 2022 at Double-A, hitting .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. He transitioned that success to the AFL, where he posted a 1.248 OPS in 21 games. The Twins will likely send him to St. Paul, where he will wait for his call-up when an injury occurs in the infield, which should happen before May. What questions do you have about these prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

If this offseason is any indication, elite relievers will continue to get paid. Here are the pros and cons of approaching Jhoan Duran with a contract extension. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports There is no question about what Jhoan Duran meant to the Minnesota Twins during his rookie campaign. He immediately became one of baseball’s most dominant late-inning relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (1.86 ERA) with 89 strikeouts and 16 walks. He showed the Twins could use him in multiple situations, including closing games, multi-inning appearances, and getting the club out of jams. Duran led all AL pitchers in Win Probability Added while establishing himself as vital to the team’s long-term plans. Duran is entering his sophomore season so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and his earliest free agency is 2028. He has yet to make life-changing money, and that can be a good window for a club to approach a player about a long-term deal that buys out some of his free-agent years. For both sides, there isn’t a rush to do this, but these types of deals typically happen before a player reaches the arbitration process. Here are some pros and cons of getting a long-term deal for Duran. Pro: Cost Certainty Earlier in the offseason, the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to a five-year, $102 million contract, the richest reliever contract in history. He was scheduled to become a free agent, but the Mets ensured he didn’t reach the open market. It seems unlikely that the Twins will spend over $100 million to sign a relief pitcher because this front office has relied on internal options to fill bullpen roles. Other recent contracts might be more similar to what the Twins can offer to Duran. Entering last season, the Guardians signed Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20 million extension. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus and two option years (2027-28) at $10 million each. Incentives can make those option years worth $13 million, and they buy out his first two free agency years. Duran is a couple of months older than Clase, but Clase had roughly the same amount of service time as Duran when he agreed to his extension. Pro: Investing in Bullpen Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shied away from multi-year contracts for relievers. Addison Reed is the only reliever signed to a multi-year contract during their tenure. The Twins gave him $16.75 million, and he was limited to 56 innings because of multiple injuries. Reed was only 29 when he signed with the Twins, and he had been one of baseball’s most reliable relievers. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t pitch again at the big-league level following the 2018 season. At some point, the Twins will need to invest in the bullpen. No one knows what baseball revenues will look like in five years, and Joe Pohlad has noted that he expects the team’s payroll to rise in the coming years. Minnesota is entering the 2023 season with the highest recorded payroll in team history at $157 million, which ranks 17th in baseball and second in the AL Central. Duran differs from many relievers, and the Twins should make a statement by investing in him. Con: Health One of the main reasons Duran is in the bullpen is because of his health issues throughout his minor-league career. The Twins managed to keep Duran healthy during his rookie season, but there are no guarantees he will stay healthy in the future. Injuries highly impacted Minnesota’s roster last season, so the club might not want to invest significant capital into any pitcher, especially those with injury concerns. Reliever usage continues to evolve, and the Twins may continue using Duran in multi-inning appearances. Last season, the Twins were very careful with Duran and used him for more than an inning in 14 of his 57 appearances. It seems likely for that number to increase in the years ahead, but there are no guarantees his body can hold up to that increased workload. He has been a starter in the past, but there are scheduled rest days between appearances that aren’t guaranteed for a bullpen arm. Con: Age The Twins already have Duran under team control through his age-29 season. Even if he is baseball’s best reliever during the next five seasons, do the Twins want to guarantee him money into his early-30s? Clase’s contract has team options ($10 million) with buyouts of $2 million per season. That could help the Twins to approach this contract since they could get out of the deal for a relatively small amount. Minnesota has been spoiled with All-Star caliber relievers in the past, like Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Duran can enter the same category, but not all relievers can be this good. Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season. Few relievers can be among baseball’s best for more than a few seasons. Can you see the Twins reaching out with a deal similar to Clase? Is the timing right for an extension or should the Twins wait until next offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

No team can have a perfect roster heading into the season. For the Twins, there are weak spots on the roster, but there is hope for some of those positions. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports In recent weeks, there has been a lot of analysis of team and player projections here at Twins Daily. Not all of these models are perfect, but it gives fans a sense of reasonable expectations for each player and the team. Some players exceed their expected performance every year, and others struggle to meet expectations. Here are the weakest positions on the Twins roster and how they may impact the club in 2023. 3. Right Field- Projected WAR: 2.7 Max Kepler's name was in the rumor mill for most of the winter, but the Twins seemingly didn't get an offer they liked, so he's set to be an everyday player. There's no question that Kepler is one of baseball's best defensive right-fielders. Last season, Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 (.666) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. Minnesota has other options in right field if the Twins need to use Kepler in more of a platoon role, including Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. It's an important season for Kepler because the Twins have a $10 million team option for 2024. He'd need to outperform his projections for the team not to buy out his contract for $1 million. Reason for Optimism: There is some optimism that Kepler will benefit from the limits on defensive shifts. He has already picked up a few hits this spring that might have been outs if defenders were allowed to have more exaggerated shifts. This spring, he has already discussed how he won't need to overthink in the batter's box with three infielders on one side of second base. Reports also have him in a good mindset after spending the offseason overseas to mentally reset himself while recovering from a toe fracture. 2. Left Field- Projected WAR: 2.1 Left field ranks close to the top for the Twins in early season projections because Joey Gallo is coming off his worst professional season. In 126 games, he posted a 79 OPS+ with 163 strikeouts. If Gallo can't improve, the Twins have depth in left field with players like Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Out of that trio, only Gordon projects to make the Opening Day roster. Larnach and Wallner will head to Triple-A and need to hit their way back to the big leagues. Other top prospects like Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are options to take over a corner outfield spot later in the season. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Gallo has a bounce-back season and can be closer to the All-Star level player he was in the past. FanGraphs projects his OPS to increase by 93 points, which would still be lower than his career mark (.794 OPS). Left field is the easiest position for the Twins players to exceed their expected performance, and it is the position I am least worried about on this list. 1. First Base- Projected WAR: 1.9 FanGraphs recently ranked the weakest positions on every contending team, and first base came out as the low spot on the Twins. Alex Kirilloff is a question mark at first base since he has averaged just over 50 games in the last two seasons. Projection systems won't help Kirilloff because he has tried to play through his wrist injury, and his on-field performance has suffered. The Twins won't rely solely on Kirilloff at first base. Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Jose Miranda, and Donovan Solano can all play first base if Kirilloff is forced to miss time again in 2023. Reason for Optimism: The Twins hope Kirilloff's surgery to shorten his ulnar bone will put him back on track to where he was as a top prospect. Fans have seen flashes of him being an elite hitter, but his wrist injury saps power from his swing. If this most recent wrist surgery is a long-term solution to his wrist woes, he can be one of the club's best overall hitters. Luckily, all the Twins' weakest positions are in corner spots which can be easier to address during the season. As the trade deadline approaches, first basemen and corner outfielders are usually easier to acquire and have lower acquisition costs. The Twins also have multiple top prospects close to the big leagues that can step into an everyday role if the club feels like they are ready. Do you agree with these rankings? Is there a reason for optimism at each of the positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Injuries were one of the main reasons the Twins couldn't hang on to the 2022 AL Central title. Entering this spring, the Twins hoped to enter the season with a healthy roster, but injuries are starting to mount. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Every team will deal with injuries during the 2023 season, and that's one of the reasons the Twins added depth at nearly every position this winter. Here are the known injuries this spring and how each will impact the Opening Day roster. Jose Miranda: Right Shoulder Soreness Miranda planned to join Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, but a shoulder injury has forced him to withdraw his name. He was the talk of TwinsFest after spending the off-season getting in better shape to handle the rigors of a 162-game season. Last season, he hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs, but he tired down the stretch. The Twins are handing him the reins at third base, but his shoulder has limited him to designated hitter duties in recent games. He hit two home runs in a game over the weekend, so his hitting clearly isn't impacted by the soreness. Roster Impact: Miranda can switch to first base and DH if Alex Kirilloff isn't ready for Opening Day. The Twins have multiple third-base options, including Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, or Willi Castro. Nick Gordon: Mild-to-Moderate High Ankle Sprain High ankle sprains can impact players differently, but initial reports are that Gordon avoided a more severe injury. He was in a walking boot following Friday's game and will be off his foot to start the week. Gordon is looking to build off a breakout 2022 season where he was named the Twins Daily Most Improved Player. In 136 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 41 extra-base hits and a 113 OPS+. Roster Impact: Gordon was going to get time as designated hitter when the club was facing right-handed starters. He's also the backup at multiple outfield positions. If he's not ready to start the year, another left-handed bat like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner might make the roster. Byron Buxton: Right Knee Surgery Buxton has yet to appear in a spring training game after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee at the beginning of October. The Twins are taking it slow with Buxton while he ramps up for the season. Big league regulars see limited action in early spring training games, and that's one reason to hold Buxton out of these contests. He can get more focused work in the batting cages and on the back fields. Minnesota wants Buxton to play more than 100 games this season, which might mean he sees limited in-game action throughout the spring. Roster Impact: The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide depth in center field behind Buxton. In recent seasons, Taylor has been a starter for the Royals, and he can assume that role if/when Buxton is hurt. Jorge Polanco: Left Knee Tendinitis Polanco was placed on the IL for the first time in his career last season, but that doesn't mean injuries haven't impacted him in the past. He's a player that has dealt with ankle and knee injuries for multiple seasons. Like Buxton, Polanco is taking things slowly at the start of spring training with more time in the training room. In 2022, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+ and 32 extra-base hits. Roster Impact: Farmer or Solano can share time at second base if Polanco misses time. Two of the organization's top prospects, Brooks Lee and Eduoard Julien, have been praised this spring. Either player could be an option if Polanco has to miss significant time. Alex Kirilloff: Wrist Surgery According to reports, Kirilloff continues to make progress from the wrist surgery that ended his 2022 season. It was the second consecutive season he missed time with a wrist injury. The Twins are taking it slow with him, and he likely will play in spring training games later in March. He is taking live batting practice with no pain in his wrist, which is a good sign from where he has been the last two years. Kirilloff was considered the team's top prospect before his debut, so hopes remain high for his future. Roster Impact: He's on track to be the team's first baseman or designated hitter to start the year. Solano, Miranda, Farmer, and Joey Gallo will get time at first base when Kirilloff isn't available. Trevor Larnach: Lower Body Injury Larnach has been dealing with a lower-body injury, but the Twins expect him to play in games this week, including defensive duties in the outfield. In 2022, Larnach posted a 104 OPS+ but was limited to 51 big-league games because of a core muscle surgery. Larnach, a former first-round pick, was ranked as one of the team’s top prospects, and he’s shown signs of his powerful bat. The Twins hope he can put his injury concerns behind him and slide into the middle of the line-up. Roster Impact: Solano’s addition initially pushed Larnach out of the team’s Opening Day roster. With the other injuries on this list, Larnach can break camp on the 26-man roster if he is healthy. Gilberto Celestino: Left Thumb Surgery Celestino ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, which has six to eight weeks of recovery. Injuries forced the Twins to use Celestino in 122 games last season. In his age-23 season, he hit .238/.313/.302 (.615) with a 80 OPS+ and 15 extra-base hits. He has seen limited action at Triple-A, and this season was his opportunity to establish himself at that level. It is an important season for him to reestablish his long-term value to the Twins, but now that's pushed back a few months. Roster Impact: Celestino was scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he's had plenty of big-league experience over the last two seasons. Minnesota can move Celestino to the 60-day IL if they need the roster spot for a waiver claim, a signing, or a non-roster invitee. Jordan Balazovic: Broken Jaw The Twins made a statement when Balazovic became the first (and only) player in the team's first round of cuts. He broke his jaw in an incident at a bar in downtown Fort Myers. Balazovic has significantly fallen over the last calendar year as he entered 2022 as one of baseball's top-100 prospects. Last season, he arrived at spring training with a left knee injury and could never fully recover. In 23 appearances (72 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He ended the season on a high note, but now he will have to wait to build off that performance. Roster Impact: Balazovic wasn't in the running for the Opening Day roster, but he is entering a pivotal season in his professional career. He saw multiple starters pass him on the way to the big leagues last season, and he didn't need another setback. Austin Martin: UCL Sprain Martin has a UCL sprain in his right elbow, which means the team will shut him down from throwing and hitting. Sometimes this injury results in Tommy John surgery, which happened in recent years with players like Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien. Martin had a redeeming September and showcased those improvements in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .936 OPS. He was having a solid start to his spring, and the team expected him to impact the big-league roster at some point in 2023. Roster Impact: Martin was likely scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he was an injury or two away from making his debut. Now he will have to wait and see if rest and rehab can help him avoid going under the knife. Ronny Henriquez: Right Posterior Elbow Soreness Henriquez made his big-league debut last season after the Twins acquired him as part of the Mitch Garver trade. He made 24 appearances (95 1/3 innings) at Triple-A with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. In St. Paul, Henriquez was five years younger than the average age of the competition so some struggles can be expected against older hitters. The Saints rotation is set up to be loaded with top prospects, so finding him innings in a starting role might be challenging. Roster Impact: Henriquez had an outside chance to make the team as a reliever, but the team may want him to continue to start. He’s only made 16 appearances at Double-A, so the team could send him to that level to start games. Which injuries will impact the Twins the most in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins added depth to the big-league pitching staff, and one of the biggest beneficiaries might be the Triple-A rotation. St. Paul is setting up to have a rotation full of the team's top pitching prospects waiting for their call back to the big leagues. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Saints fans can be excited about the amount of talent projected in St. Paul to start the 2023 season. Many of the team's top prospects are closing in on the big-league level, including multiple starting pitchers that debuted in 2022. Here's a look at who could populate the Saints' pitching staff on Opening Day. Trio At the Top: Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson Ober was potentially pushed out of the Twins rotation after the team acquired Pablo Lopez from the Marlins. However, he is only one injury away from being back at the big-league level. Last season, Ober made 11 starts (56 innings) for the Twins and posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 51-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He missed a large chunk of the season with a groin injury and has pitched fewer than 100 innings in all but one professional season. Ober will be in St. Paul for a short time with injury questions surrounding multiple starters on the big-league roster. Varland is the first Twins pitcher to win back-to-back Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year since Jose Berrios. The St. Paul native changed his arm action after joining the Twins organization, improving his entire pitching repertoire. As a 24-year-old, he dominated the upper minors with a 3.06 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 in over 126 innings. He got a brief taste of the big leagues at the end of 2022 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts. Varland might not profile as an ace, but the Twins believe he can fit into the middle of the team's rotation for the majority of the next decade. Woods Richardson has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list and is coming off his best professional season. The Twins sent him back to Double-A, a level he struggled at in 2021, and he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. He performed even better after his promotion to Triple-A, lowering his ERA to 2.21 and posting a 38-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His walk rate had been a concern in 2021 (5.7 BB/9) but returned to form with a 3.0 BB/9 last season. Only one pitching prospect ranks higher than SWR in the Twins Daily Top Prospect Rankings. Options to Fill Out the Rotation The Twins have a variety of directions to go when it comes to filling out the rest of the starting rotation. Some of these decisions will be based on health and injuries, while others will be based on the team's long-term role for the pitcher. Are they a starter or a reliever? Josh Winder is in the mix for a starting role, but he just started throwing bullpens this week after dealing with shoulder issues in the offseason. His shoulder has bothered him for multiple seasons, so it might be time to move to a bullpen role. Ronny Henriquez is one of the youngest pitchers on the 40-man roster, and the team likely wants him to continue to start games. Last season, Cole Sands split time between starter and reliever, so his best path back to the big league might be a multi-inning reliever. Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick, and Jordan Balazovic are also interesting names to consider at Triple-A. Dobnak missed time over the last two seasons with a finger injury, and he is no longer on the 40-man roster. Expectations don't need to be high for him, but there is a good chance he will return to the MLB level if his finger injury is behind him. Balazovic is currently recovering from a broken jaw after being punched at a Fort Myers bar. His build-up to the season will be behind other pitchers while he waits for the injury to heal. Headrick had a breakout season in 2022, and the Twins hope he can continue to build on that success. What are your thoughts on the Triple-A rotation? Which players fill the final spots? Who will have the most significant impact on the Twins in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article