Cody Christie

The 2022 MLB Draft was less than 12 months ago, meaning the drafted players have only begun their professional careers. Are there any standouts among last year's draft? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Major League Baseball's 2023 Draft is scheduled to start on July 9, 2023. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, this series will examine recent Twins drafts and how those players have performed so far in their professional careers. First Round: Brooks Lee The Twins were ecstatic that Lee fell to them with the eighth overall selection, especially since many pre-draft prognostications had him off the board before their pick. Evaluators viewed Lee as the most advanced college bat in the draft, and the Twins were aggressive with him during his professional debut. In 31 games, he hit .303/.389/.451 (.839) with six doubles and four home runs while splitting time between three levels. He finished the season as a starter in the Double-A line-up, including helping Wichita in the Texas League Championship Series. The Twins sent Lee back to Double-A for the 2023 season, where he has posted a .773 OPS including 23 doubles and four home runs through 57 games. He was a consensus top 50 prospect entering the season, so it will be interesting to see how he can improve in the second half. Second Round: Connor Prielipp, Tanner Schobel Prielipp was in the conversation for the first overall pick before suffering an elbow injury in college and having Tommy John surgery. Minnesota delayed his professional debut until the 2023 season. During spring, his pitching arm had some inflammation and soreness, so the Twins were taking it slow with him. Unfortunately, he's been limited to two professional starts after being diagnosed with a forearm strain. The plan is to have him start a throwing program at the team's facilities in Fort Myers before beginning rehab outings with the organization's rookie league teams. Prielipp might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in the organization, but he needs to be healthy to move up the ladder. Schobel played collegiately in the ACC, so the Twins weren't afraid to be aggressive with him during his pro debut. He got his feet wet in the FCL (four games) before finishing the season on the Fort Myers roster. In 32 games, he hit .237/.353/.298 (.651) with five extra-base hits and a 26-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His first full season started in the Midwest League, where he is slightly younger than the average age of the competition. He's splitting time between second and third base while posting a .749 OPS with 16 extra-base hits through 58 games. The Twins didn't have a third-round pick in 2022 because the team had to forfeit their selection after signing Carlos Correa. Houston received a compensatory pick in the 2022 draft since they tendered the qualifying offer to Correa following the 2021 campaign. Minnesota's first three picks were protected, so they surrendered their fourth pick. Fourth Round: Andrew Morris Morris entered college as a 17-year-old and pitched his first three seasons at Division II Mesa State in Colorado. In 2022, he transferred to Texas Tech, where he posted a 4.58 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings. Last season, Minnesota only had him make one FCL appearance after signing with the organization. He also made an appearance for the Mighty Mussels in the playoffs. In 2023, he's made six appearances (five starts) for the Mighty Mussels while allowing 12 earned runs on 26 hits with a 10.4 K/9 in 26 innings. Other Prospects Still in the Organization Ben Ross (5th Round): Ross posted a .817 OPS in 24 Low-A games during his professional debut. He's played the 2023 season in Cedar Rapids, hitting .239/.307/.424 (.732). Defensively, he's played six different positions. Jorel Ortega (6th Round): Saw limited action (3 games) after signing last season due to breaking his wrist in his first Mussels at-bat. In 2023, he's posted an .876 OPS at Low-A while splitting time between third base and shortstop. Kyle Jones (7th Round): He made two scoreless appearances near the end of the 2022 season. Minnesota sent him to Cedar Rapids for the 2023 campaign. He has a 4.47 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a 43-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 appearances. Zebby Matthews (8th Round): Matthews posted a 2.56 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 in eight Low-A appearances to begin 2023. The Twins promoted him to High-A at the beginning of June, where he had one bad start (8 ER) and two starts of six innings while allowing one earned run or fewer. Cory Lewis (9th Round): Lewis has been outstanding during his professional debut. In his first 11 starts (39 1/3 innings), he has limited batters to a .174 BA and a 72-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. People want to talk about his knuckleball but he has a full repertoire of pitches to keep batters off balance. Lewis is over a year younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League since his most recent promotion. Dalton Shuffield (10th Round): He played parts of five college seasons because of the extra eligibility due to the pandemic. Because of that, when there was a roster need, Shuffield played quite a bit in Triple-A in his pro debut and posted a .917 OPS across three levels. In 2023, he's combined for a .786 OPS in Fort Myers. Andrew Cossetti (11th Round): Cossetti has split time between Low-A and High-A during the 2023 season. He's played catcher and first base while combining for a .986 OPS in 50 games. Nate Baez (12th Round): Baez hit .279/.338/.508 (.846) in 19 games after signing last season. He is currently on the IL with a broken hamate bone. C.J. Culpepper (13th Round): Culpepper shares some similarities to Joe Ryan, and the Twins hope he can follow a similar development path. In 10 starts (40 1/3 innings), he's posted a 2.68 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Omari Daniel (14th Round): The Twins drafted him out of high school and held off on his pro debut until 2023 since he was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. With the FCL Twins, he started the year 2-for-12 (.167 BA) with more walks (five) than strikeouts (four). Ben Ethridge (15th Round): Ethridge moved to a bullpen role in his senior season at Southern Mississippi, and the Twins have continued that role with Fort Myers. In 14 appearances (28 1/3 innings), he has a 2.86 ERA with an 8.6 K/9. Jankel Ortiz (16th Round): He went 3-for-12 (.250 BA) with four walks and a double in his pro debut. Ortiz made nine appearances in the Puerto Rican Winter League and posted a .978 OPS. He recently came off the IL and has cone 0-for-6 in his first two games in 2023. Alec Sayre (17th Round): Sayre has played all three outfield positions at Low-A in 2023. He's hitting .224/.364/.321 (.685) with seven extra-base hits in his first 44 games this season. Zach Veen (18th Round): Veen has pitched out of the Fort Myers bullpen during the 2023 campaign. In 18 appearances (28 innings), he has posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a 9.0 K/9. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES -2021 Draft Retrospective -2020 Draft Retrospective -2019 Draft Retrospective -2018 Draft Retrospective -2017 Draft Retrospective -2016 Draft Retrospective What are your early impressions of the 2022 draft class? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Fans can have unreasonable expectations for highly-touted prospects after they reach the big-league level. Let's look at three veteran Twins players and how their professional careers have transpired. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Baseball is a challenging game, and only some players can reach their highest level and succeed consistently. Three veteran Twins players were signed as teenagers and developed in the organization. Each player has accumulated over nine seasons in a Twins uniform, but have they met their expectations from their days as a prospect? Byron Buxton Career Stats (9 Seasons): .242/.303/.470 (.773), 108 OPS+, 21.1 WAR, 1 All-Star Appearance Prospect Hype: Over the last decade, few prospects reached the major leagues with the amount of hype that surrounded Buxton. He was the second overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft, but many evaluators ranked him as the top available player. Buxton's potential five-tool talent was unmatched in the minors, and it looked like he was on pace to be a superstar. Entering the 2014 season, all three national prospect rankings had him as the number one or two prospect on their top 100 lists. He'd stay at the top of those lists for three consecutive seasons while hitting .301/.376/.507 (.884) in the minors. MLB Career: Few players can live up to the hype that surrounded Buxton. There have been flashes of the five-tool player that he was in the minors, but injuries have severely hampered his big-league career. In his early career, Minnesota's coaches encouraged Buxton to use his speed as a weapon to try and beat out base hits. Thankfully, Buxton changed course later in his career to focus on hitting for power. He was an All-Star for the first time in 2022 after a solid first half. Moving forward, there are questions about whether Buxton will play defensively in center field. He's accumulated the highest WAR total among these three players, and his extension means he will be with the Twins for the majority of his career. Some fans will be disappointed in Buxton's overall outcome, but he continues to provide tremendous value when he is healthy. Met Expectations: No, but few players can live up to being ranked as baseball's top prospect. Max Kepler Career Stats (9 Seasons): .230/.315/.424 (.739), 100 OPS+, 17.1 WAR Prospect Hype: Most of Kepler's prospect hype was based on his 2015 season when the Southern League named him MVP. In 118 games that season, he hit .318/.410/.520 (.930) with 34 doubles, 13 triples, and nine home runs. Before the 2016 season, he was a consensus top-60 prospect, and Baseball America ranked him as baseball's 30th-best prospect. His 2015 totals were outliers compared to the rest of his minor league career. In 460 games, he hit .280/.361/.444 (.805) while only hitting double-digit home runs in one season. Kepler had many intangibles an organization would want from a top prospect, so there was hope he'd put it all together as he continued to develop. Career Totals: Kepler has been a league-average hitter at the big-league level according to OPS+, but his monster 2019 season skews his totals. In 134 games, he hit .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 32 doubles and 36 home runs. Baseballs were flying out of ballparks at a record rate that season, and Kepler has never hit more than 19 home runs in any season since 2019. Defensively, he is among baseball's best right fielders and provides tremendous value to the club on that side of the ball. Recency bias can cloud a fan's view of a player when Kepler has struggled offensively for multiple seasons. No matter how his Twins tenure ends, Kepler ranks among the top outfielders in team history because of his longevity on the roster. He's provided the Twins with value, but most of it comes from his longevity on the club and not from his overarching production. Met Expectations: No, he has yet to become a consistent MLB hitter. Jorge Polanco Career Stats (10 Seasons): .270/.333/.445 (.778), 111 OPS+, 15.8 WAR, 1 All-Star Appearance Prospect Hype: Polanco never ranked among baseball's top 100 prospects, so little national hype surrounded him before a unique big-league debut. During the 2014 season, injury concerns impacted the Twins, and they needed an extra infielder at the MLB level. Polanco was among the few healthy infielders on the 40-man roster, so the Twins called him up from High-A to make his big-league debut. Few prospects make that kind of jump, but Minnesota had confidence in the young shortstop even without experience in the upper minors. In over 600 minor league games, he hit .287/.348/.412 (.760) before becoming an even more powerful hitter with the Twins. Career Totals: Polanco might have lacked the hype compared to Buxton and Kepler, but he has provided tremendous value during his MLB career. He played shortstop at an All-Star level during the first half of his career before ankle injuries forced him to move to a less demanding defensive position. His career totals might also look different if he weren't suspended 80 games entering the 2018 season for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Throughout his career, he has been an underrated core member of the Twins while consistently ranking among the team leaders in multiple offensive categories. His rWAR is behind Buxton and Kepler, but he has a higher OPS+ than both players. Met Expectations: Yes, he exceeded his prospect expectations. Which of these players has met your expectations? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

No, it's Michael A. Taylor in the picture since he was one of the players acquired this winter with a strong defensive resume.

Chris Williams had an epic three-home run game earlier this week for the Saints. The next morning, he hit two more. There are few prospect lists where his name appears, so who is he, and what value can he provide to the Twins? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints The Twins drafted Chris Williams in the eighth round of the 2018 MLB Draft from Clemson University. In three collegiate seasons, he hit .264/.360/.519 (.879) with 72 extra-base hits in 169 games. During his first season at Clemson, he played 12 games or more at catcher, third base, and first base. By his final season, the team used him primarily at first base. College players that play primarily at first base need to hit for a lot of power to move through an organization. However, the Twins weren’t necessarily relegating him to one position. Shortly after signing, Williams made his professional debut with the Elizabethton Twins. In 62 games, he hit .252/.372/.500 (.872) with six doubles, one triple, and 15 home runs. All his defensive innings came at first base, but it was hard to ignore his offensive output. He had dealt with shoulder injuries in college, and the Twins wanted to get him into the system so they could work on his catching skills. Twins Daily named him the 2018 Short-Season Hitter of the Year after leading the Appalachian League in home runs and finishing in the top 10 for RBI, slugging percentage, and OPS. Williams split the 2019 season between Low-A and High-A. With Cedar Rapids, the Low-A affiliate at the time, he hit .218/.356/.473 (.830) with 12 doubles, three triples, and ten home runs. His batting average remained low, but he continued to get on base due to a 57-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Near the end of July, the Twins promoted Williams to Fort Myers, where he was younger than the average age of the competition for the first time in his career. Offensively, he struggled with the transition by going 3-for-41 with one home run and 20 strikeouts in 15 games. All but eight of his defensive appearances came at catcher, where he threw out 13-of-71 runners (18% CS%) at both levels. The Twins sent Williams to High-A coming out of the pandemic even though he was 1.5 years older than the average age of the competition at that level. Through 17 games, he went 5-for-50 (.100 BA) with three doubles and 27 strikeouts. Minnesota promoted him to Double-A at the end of June, and his offensive performance improved with the jump in competition. He posted a .725 OPS with nine extra-base hits in 28 games. Also, Williams continued to see most of his defensive starts at catcher, where he posted a career-best 34% CS%. Last season, Williams split time between the two highest levels in the farm system while making over 77% of his defensive appearances at first base. His powerful swing reemerged after getting out from behind the plate. At Double-A, he hit .277/.372/.542 (.915) with 16 doubles, one triple, and 18 home runs in 75 games. His OPS slipped a little after being promoted to Triple-A, but he continued to hit for power. In 42 games, he had a .714 OPS with five doubles and ten home runs. His 28 home runs led the entire system, even beating out Matt Wallner, the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year. Williams has struggled with midseason transitions to new minor league levels, but he seems to find his approach after repeating a level. The Twins sent him back to Triple-A this season, and that trend has continued to be true. His OPS has improved by over 250 points, and he is among the team leaders in multiple statistical categories. Through 42 games, he is hitting .290/.394/.621 (1.015) with seven doubles, one triple, and 13 home runs. Since the start of last season, Williams has hit 41 home runs in 159 games. Defensively, he spends minimal time behind the plate, with most of his starts coming at first base. It will likely take an injury for Williams to make his big-league debut during the 2023 season. The Twins have multiple first base options, and Byron Buxton has been getting the majority of playing time at DH. However, it’s easy to see why some might overlook Williams and the value he can provide an organization. Twins fans will see Williams over the next two seasons, and they can hope his powerful swing follows him from St. Paul to Minneapolis. What stands out to you about Williams’ professional career? What role can he play at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Castro has over 1200 plate appearances at the big-league level. I'm not sure he has much to gain at Triple-A.

Shout out to the guy wearing a Kyle Waldrop jersey in that first photo. That's a true fan 😆

Here's the regulars from 2022: And here's who has played the most so far in 2023: Improved Positions: C, CF, 1B (w/ Gallo) Worsened Positions: 2B (Julien hurts the position), LF, 3B Push: SS, RF Thoughts?

I think the team is more comfortable with Gallo at first base than some of the other options. With Kirilloff now playing regularly at first, Gallo should get more reps in left field. I would expect future SDI rankings to have him as an outfielder.

Since joining the Twins, I think they have been positioning Correa differently than he was used in Houston and that impacts some of the defensive metrics.

Minnesota acquired multiple strong defenders during the offseason to add a missing dimension to the club. How has the team's defense ranked through the first third of the season? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on June 4, 2023. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 0.7 SDI (11th), Sonny Gray 0.0 SDI (21st), Joe Ryan -0.1 SDI (28th) Pitcher defense can be tough to evaluate because of the limited number of plays the position must field. Lopez is the top Twin on the leaderboard, but Zack Greinke (1.6 SDI) is at the top with more than double Lopez's SDI score. Multiple former Twins populate the rankings, including Lance Lynn (1.4 SDI), Tyler Wells (0.8 SDI), Kyle Gibson (0.6 SDI), Martin Perez (0.5 SDI), and Jose Berrios (0.1 SDI). Pitchers can move up and down the leaderboard more easily during the season, so it will be interesting to see how the top Twins pitchers fare by the season's end. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 1.1 SDI (8th), Ryan Jeffers 0.7 SDI (10th) Vazquez was known for his defensive abilities when the Twins signed him during the offseason. Last season, he ranked fifth in the AL with a 5.3 SDI and continues to rank well at the start of the 2023 campaign. Since joining the Twins, his framing has improved from the 55th percentile to the 63rd percentile. Jeffers has been known for his pitch-framing ability, but he's struggled to control the run game. Last season, he ranked in the 64th percentile for framing, while his pop time to second base was in the 44th percentile. His framing dropped to the 40th percentile in 2023, but his pop time improved to the 51st percentile. First Base (AL Ranking): Joey Gallo -0.2 SDI (6th) Gallo has never been a regular at first base, but the Twins had a need at the position to begin the year. Alex Kirilloff has been getting more regular reps at first since he returned from injury, so Gallo will likely fall off this leaderboard in future updates. According to FanGraphs, Kirilloff has been worth -4 Defensive Runs Saved in 155 innings at first base. Only five AL first basemen have posted a positive SDI, with Nathaniel Lowe (2.6 SDI) and Anthony Rizzo (2.6 SDI) at the top. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Injuries have impacted regular playing time for any players at second base, with Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien getting most of the playing time. Last season, Polanco ranked 13th among AL second basemen with a -2.7 SDI. Only three players ranked below him, including Nicky Lopez, Rougned Odor, and Jose Altuve. The Twins continue to use Julien only at second base, and his defense is not strong at the position. He's been worth -3 defensive runs saved in his first 140 defensive innings at the big league level. Monitoring how Polanco looks defensively when he returns from his hamstring injury will be interesting. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins hoped Jose Miranda would thrive at third base in 2023, but that plan didn't come to fruition. Even if Miranda were at third, his defense would likely struggle. In nearly 280 innings at third, FanGraphs valued him at -3.9 DEF, which was worse than his pace last year when he had a -9.3 DEF. Royce Lewis is playing third base regularly for the first time in his career, so it will be interesting to see how the defensive metrics view him at the hot corner. In nine starts, he has been worth one defensive run saved at third, but it's a small sample size. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -0.6 SDI (10th) Correa dominated the SDI rankings in his final season in Houston, but the Twins have not seen that player over the last two seasons. He started last season slowly and posted a negative SDI through the first portion of the season. Luckily, his defense improved in the second half, and he finished with a 1.6 SDI, ranking ninth in the AL. Correa hasn't started the season as badly, so fans will have to watch if his plantar fasciitis impacts his defense throughout the season. Left Field (AL Ranking): Trevor Larnach -1.0 SDI (9th) Chicago's Andrew Benintendi is the lone qualified AL left fielder with a lower SDI than Larnach. Other defensive metrics also place Larnach near the bottom of the league. He ranks in the eighth percentile for outfield jump, 34th percentile for arm strength, and 45th percentile for outs above average. His arm strength was in the 67th percentile last season, so that area should improve throughout the season. In 2022, Nick Gordon finished fifth among AL left fielders in SDI, but he won't be back on the field until later this season after fracturing his right shin. Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 0.7 SDI (7th) Some Twins fans would rather have Byron Buxton manning center field, but Taylor came to the Twins with a solid defensive reputation. In his age-32 season, Taylor ranks in the 88th percentile for Outs Above Average, and his arm strength is in the 83rd percentile. His outfield jump has taken the biggest hit this year, dropping from the 74th percentile in 2022 to the 50th percentile in 2023. Fans will continue to clamor for Buxton to take over regular center field duties, but that seems unlikely to happen with his injury history. Right Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Max Kepler finished the 2022 season as a finalist for the Gold Glove in right field before losing out to Kyle Tucker. He posted a 6.3 SDI, which ranked second in the AL behind Tucker (7.1 SDI). He was elite in the outfield, with an Outs Above Average in the 97th percentile. In 2023, Kepler ranks in the 67th percentile for Outs Above Average and in the 73rd percentile for arm strength. Most of Kepler's value comes on the defensive side of the ball, so he should jump onto the leaderboard when he qualifies later this season. Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Who will rank highest by the season's end? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 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Jorge Polanco was able to avoid the injured list early in his career, but that trend has declined in recent years. Are the Twins concerned about his mounting injuries? What does that mean for his option for 2024? Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco is one of the longest-tenured Twins players and has been critical to the club’s success in recent years. According to fWAR, Polanco ranks third on the team since the start of the 2018 season behind Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. His WAR doesn’t tell the entire story of the value he provides to the Twins. Since 2018, his 6.23 WPA is nearly two wins higher than any other qualified hitter for Minnesota. He is an underrated player for the club and continues to provide value when he is healthy. Unfortunately, injury concerns have started to impact Polanco’s career. His reputation is of a player that avoids the injury list by playing through pain, even if it means a decline in his on-field performance. Polanco dealt with ankle issues in multiple seasons but never went on the IL. In 2019, he was an All-Star during the first half, but his OPS dropped by nearly 100 points in the season’s second half while dealing with ankle concerns. During the 2020 season, his swing was never right at the plate, and he struggled to a .606 OPS in the shortened season. Both times he underwent ankle surgery during the offseason. On June 16, 2022, Polanco went on the injured list for the first time in his career after playing over 700 games at the big-league level. Since then, he has been limited to 76 games and has been on the IL five times. There was a delayed start to his 2023 season because he was still dealing with knee soreness that bothered him during the 2022 campaign. Minnesota can turn second base over to Edouard Julien in Polanco’s absence, but it’s concerning how limited Polanco has been over the last two seasons. Polanco is under team control for two more seasons, but the Twins must decide on the value associated with his options. For 2024, Minnesota can bring Polanco back for $10.5 million, which he has been more than worth over the last five full seasons. Even with missing time during the 2022 season, FanGraphs pegged his value at over $14.5 million. His option for the 2025 season is $12 million, with escalators tied to All-Star appearances and Gold Glove/Silver Slugger awards. Both option years are team friendly if Polanco can play over 100 games. The Twins may also consider trading Polanco at some point next winter. He would obviously need to be healthier through the remainder of the 2023 season, but he certainly provides value when on the field. Minnesota has multiple prospects that can fit into the team’s long-term plans at second base, including Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin. There is also a possibility that Royce Lewis can slide over to second base if/when Jose Miranda is ready to rejoin the big-league club. Second base is one of the easier defensive positions to fill, and the Twins can use a young bat to take Polanco’s place. Minnesota’s front office has recently struggled to part ways with veteran players. Players like Max Kepler and Emilio Pagan have lingered on the Twins’ roster, hoping to find a way to turn their slumping performances around. Polanco is not in the same category as those players, but the team might want to avoid a long goodbye and part ways with him before his performance declines. Who do you think will be the Twins starting second baseman in 2024? Does Polanco have a role on this club beyond 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Austin Martin entered spring training with a new outlook on his professional career. Unfortunately, an elbow injury has delayed the start of his 2023 campaign. What are the chances he avoids surgery, and how can he help the 2023 Twins? Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Entering last season, Austin Martin had to be feeling good about the start of his professional career. He’d been a collegiate star on a powerhouse Vanderbilt squad that made a run to the College World Series before the Blue Jays took him with the fifth overall pick. The Twins acquired Martin along with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios, and he was a consensus top-100 prospect. Double-A was his likely destination, with an outside chance at making his big-league debut during the 2022 campaign. Unfortunately, prospect development doesn’t follow a linear path, and Martin struggled through much of the 2022 season. In his first 77 games, he hit .236/.365/.306 (.671) with 11 doubles, three triples, and one home run. His OPS dropped over 120 points, and he was hitting for little to no power. There were some positive signs in his sub-par performance, with a 49-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio while going 32-for-37 in stolen base attempts. Players must make adjustments throughout the season, and Martin decided to return to his roots near the end of the 2022 campaign. The Twins tried to adjust Martin’s swing to help him produce more power, but it was clear something wasn’t working during the 2022 season. Eventually, he decided to revert to the swing mechanics that made him one of the best collegiate baseball players in the country. He redeemed himself in September by hitting .268/.405/.423 (.827) with five doubles and two home runs. Minnesota wanted him to get more reps to continue working with his revamped swing, so the club sent him to the AFL. He was one of the AFL’s best hitters with a .374/.454/.482 (.936) slash line, including six doubles and a home run in 21 games. It was an encouraging conclusion to the season, putting Martin back on the prospect map. Martin entered spring training in 2023 with a chance to prove himself to the big-league coaching staff. Injuries to MLB players meant he was getting a long look at multiple defensive positions and performed well in early action. It was a significant opportunity, but his elbow started bothering him, and the team shut him down. He was diagnosed with a UCL sprain, an injury that often leads to Tommy John surgery. The Twins and Martin decided to have him attempt to rest and rehab his elbow to see if he could avoid surgery. He didn’t see any game action until last week, and the team will be careful while he continues ramping up his workload. In his first six games, he went 1-for-6 with a home run and a stolen base. He left his sixth rehab game after colliding with another player in the outfield and this will delay his rehab even further. Surgery is still possible and might be the most likely outcome. Unlike pitchers, position players can take less time to recover from Tommy John surgery. In more recent years, the Twins have seen players like Alex Kirilloff and Miguel Sano have TJ surgery. Martin can attempt rehab and still have time to recover for the beginning of next season if he has surgery later this summer. If Martin can avoid surgery, it seems likely for him to be done playing shortstop. There were questions about his defensive future throughout his professional career, and this latest injury might be the nail in the coffin. He can still provide value at other defensive spots, including second base or outfield. Throughout his career, he has been known for his athleticism, and evaluators viewed him as the best college bat in his draft class. Martin can serve in a super-utility role with the Twins, where he plays defensively at multiple positions. Many of Minnesota’s top prospects have suffered some setbacks on their way to becoming regulars at the big-league level. Royce Lewis is returning from his second ACL tear, Jhoan Duran had elbow problems, and Alex Kirilloff underwent TJ surgery, to name a few. It might be unlikely for Martin to avoid surgery, but players have used the rest and rehab process without going under the knife. What are the chances that Martin can avoid surgery? Can he help the Twins in 2023? What is his long-term defensive home? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Interestingly, the Twins have used many players from the 2021 draft as trade capital. How has the team fared in those deals and how have their professional career progressed in 2023? Image courtesy of Steve Buhr, Twins Daily Major League Baseball's 2023 Draft is scheduled to start on July 9, 2023. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, this series will examine recent Twins drafts and how those players have performed so far in their professional careers. First Round: Chase Petty, Noah Miller High school pitchers can follow various development paths during their professional careers. It is one of the most challenging player types to draft and develop in an organization. The Twins had two picks near the back of the first round in 2021 and used their first selection (26th overall) on Chase Petty, a high school flamethrower from New Jersey. His time in the Twins organization was limited to two appearances because the team traded him to Cincinnati before the 2022 season for Sonny Gray. Last season, he pitched 98 1/3 innings between Low-A and High-A with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an 8.8 K/9. From Minnesota's perspective, they received two strong seasons from Sonny Gray, and they can give him the qualifying offer. The Twins receive draft pick compensation if he declines the offer and signs with another team. It's easy to see why the Twins pulled the trigger on this deal. Miller is entering his third professional season and has shown various skills. His defense at shortstop continues to improve, and he is a strong base runner. At the plate, he needs to refine his swing and make more consistent contact. Last season at Low-A, he hit .212/.348/.279 (.627) with 18 extra-base hits in 108 games. Miller faced older batters in nearly 92% of his plate appearances as a teenager in the Florida State League. The Twins moved Miller to Cedar Rapids for the 2023 season, where he continues to play shortstop while also playing second base for the first time in his professional career. In the season's first 51 games, he posted a .562 OPS, while facing older pitchers in all but two at-bats. Clearly, the front office believes he can hold his own against older competition, so it will be interesting to see if he gets more comfortable at his level in 2023. Second Round: Steve Hajjar Hajjar was a very intriguing pick for the Twins as a strong college left-handed pitcher with some room to grow. In 2022, he made the majority of his starts in Fort Myers, where he posted a 2.47 ERA with 71 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings. At the trade deadline, Minnesota included him as one of the pieces in the Tyler Mahle trade that hasn't worked out in the team's favor. His time in the Reds organization was also minimal because they traded him to the Guardians in March. Hajjar missed time to begin the 2023 season but is currently on a rehab assignment. Twins fans might see plenty of Hajjar in the future now that he is back in the AL Central. Third Round: Cade Povich Like Hajjar, Povich was a Big Ten college pitcher that the Twins thought highly of entering the draft. During the 2022 season, he pitched at Cedar Rapids and posted a 4.46 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 78 2/3 innings. Minnesota dealt him to the Orioles in the Jorge Lopez trade, and he has spent the 2023 campaign pitching at Double-A. In his first 11 starts (47 innings), he allowed 29 earned runs on 48 hits with a 69-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Fourth Round: Christian Encarnacion-Strand Twins fans will follow Encarnacion-Strand's career because of his connection to the Tyler Mahle trade. During the 2022 season, he split time between High-A and Double-A while hitting .304/.368/.587 (.955) with 31 doubles, five triples, and 32 home runs. His stock was rising at the trade deadline, and he has built off his success in 2023. He has been crushing the ball at Triple-A this season with a 1.162 OPS with 13 doubles and 17 home runs in 42 games. He's on the doorstep of the big leagues and will likely make his debut later this season. Other Prospects Still in the Organization Christian MacLeod (5th round): He missed the entire 2022 season with Tommy John surgery. He's made four starts this season between Low-A and High-A with mixed results. His performance should improve as he gets further from surgery. Travis Adams (6th round): He's pitched the entire 2023 season in the Wichita rotation with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Last season he threw over 100 innings with a 3.93 ERA between Low- and High-A. Jake Rucker (7th round): The Twins have used Rucker as a utility man during his professional career. In 2022, he played at three levels, including Triple-A, when there was a late-season need (after the Kernels season ended). He posted a .711 OPS in 124 games. He's been a regular for the Wind Surge with a .715 OPS in 52 games. Noah Cardenas (8th round): He played nearly 100 games for Fort Myers in 2022 with an .834 OPS while playing catcher and first base. His OPS has dropped by over 70 points at High-A this season. Pat Winkel (9th round): Winkel has been an on-base machine during his professional career with a .351 OPS, which is over 100 points higher than his batting average. Wichita has used him as one of the team's primary catchers in 2023. Ernie Yake (10th round): Minnesota used him at four levels in 2022, including the organization's two highest levels. This season, he has a .753 OPS with appearances at High-A and Triple-A. Kyler Fedko (12th round): Fedko finished 2022 at Cedar Rapids, and that's where the Twins sent him to begin 2023. In 25 games, he is hitting .169/.330/.310 (.639) with five extra-base hits. David Festa (13th round): He put himself on the prospect map with a strong performance last season. In 103 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.43 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a 9.4 K/9. His strikeout rate has risen at Double-A this season (10.6 K/9), but he has allowed 22 earned runs in 41 2/3 innings (4.75 ERA). He is arguably the highest-rated prospect left in the Twins organization from this draft class, and he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter at the big-league level. Pierson Ohl (14th round): He had a 3.53 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings at Low-A during the 2022 season. Ohl has made starts for High-A and Double-A in 2023 with a 5.24 ERA and 8.7 K/9. Mikey Perez (15th round): In 2022, Perez posted a .728 OPS while playing at three levels in the Twins' system. He's played at Fort Myers in 2023, hitting .212/.282/.323 (.605) through 34 games. Johnathan Lavallee (16th round): The Twins have used Lavallee primarily as a reliever in his professional career. In 14 appearances, he has a 5.31 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and 13.3 K/9. Dylan Neuse (17th round): He has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Fort Myers line-up this season while hitting .298/.382/.436 (.817) with 11 extra-base hits in 39 games. Neuse can play all three outfield positions but gets most of his defensive reps in center field. Mike Paredes: (18th round) Paredes split time as a starter and reliever in 2022, but he's been primarily used in a relief role this season. In 11 appearances, he has a 2.49 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 6.8 K/9. Jaylen Nowlin (19th round): Minnesota went over slot to sign Nowlin in the 2021 draft, and he rewarded them with a strong 2022 season (3.80 ERA in 22 appearances). With Cedar Rapids, he has posted a 3.86 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2023. Dillon Tatum (20th round): He has added catching depth to the Twins system while also playing some at first base. Tatum is on pace to set career highs in multiple offensive categories. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES -2020 Draft Retrospective -2019 Draft Retrospective -2018 Draft Retrospective -2017 Draft Retrospective -2016 Draft Retrospective What are your impressions of the 2021 draft class? Which traded player do the Twins want back the most? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Many evaluators considered Joe Ryan a unique prospect when the Twins acquired him from the Tampa Bay Rays for Nelson Cruz. Now the organization might have a similar pitcher poised to break out. Image courtesy of William Parmeter, Fort Myers Miracle Developing pitching prospects is not an exact science, and teams always seek to gain an advantage by finding players that fit a typical mold. By many accounts, Joe Ryan broke nearly every mold for a starting pitcher at the onset of his professional career. He was able to be successful in the minors by throwing fastballs for the majority of his pitches. As a former water polo player, his unique arm angle gave batters a different angle, making it tough to make consistent contact. In parts of four minor league seasons, he posted 13.0 K/9 with a 0.86 WHIP. Even with these significant totals, few evaluators thought Ryan’s success could continue at the big-league level because he relied heavily on one pitch. Fans saw this play out in Ryan’s first call-up when he threw his fastball over 65% of the time, but his strikeout totals dropped compared to his minor league numbers. Ryan went to Driveline this winter and reinvented himself to the point where he throws fastballs less than 60% of the time. He’s also changed his pitch mix with a split-finger, a sweeper, and a slider. In the season’s first half, Ryan has been one of the team’s best-starting pitchers and has a chance to make his first All-Star appearance. Ryan was not a finished product when the Twins acquired him, but he seems out to prove he is more than a one-pitch starter. In the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins drafted a player similar to Ryan in that they are both college draft picks from California with a background in water polo. Minnesota drafted C.J. Culpepper in the 13th round from California Baptist University, where he finished his junior season with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 69 innings. After signing with the Twins, he made one scoreless appearance in the Florida Complex League. Culpepper is off to a tremendous start during his first full professional season. He has limited opponents to nine earned runs (2.55 ERA) on 26 hits in 35 1/3 innings in eight starts. His 10.4 K/9 is similar to his collegiate career, and he’s pounded the strike zone with a 41-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has yet to surrender a home run and has given up one earned run or fewer in seven-of-nine starts. It’s a tremendous start to his career, and he might be a relatively unknown prospect for fans of the organization. Like with Ryan, opponents have a tough time making consistent contact. Batters have hit .206/.281/.214 (.495) against him with only one extra-base hit in 140 plate appearances. He is also over a year younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL, so he has faced older batters in over 41% of his at-bats. He’s pitched five innings or more in nearly half of his appearances and accrued double-digit swinging strikes in three starts. Culpepper is early in his professional career and has multiple development steps to take before he reaches the upper minors. Ryan has developed into a core piece for the Twins while continuing to improve after making his MLB debut. There are surface-level similarities between Culpepper and Ryan, so the Twins could follow a similar formula to help Culpepper succeed even more when climbing the organizational ladder. What are your early impressions of Culpepper? Can he follow a similar career path to Ryan? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jair Camargo might be an unknown name to some Twins fans, but he has recently been on a hot streak for the Saints. Let’s dive into the catcher’s professional career and look toward his future in the organization. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Trading for prospects can be challenging for fans to evaluate, especially if those players are in the low levels of the minor leagues. It can take multiple years for those players to work through the team’s farm system. Jair Camargo is one of those players, and he might finally be putting it all together at the Triple-A level. The Dodgers originally signed Camargo in 2015 as a 16-year-old from Barranquilla, Colombia. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .250/.309/.346 (.654) with eight extra-base hits and a 28-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41 games. In 2017, he came stateside and played for the Dodgers rookie-level team and more than held his own. He posted a .709 OPS with nine doubles, one triple, and two home runs in 36 games. Camargo’s final rookie ball season came in 2018 when he hit .257/.277/.443 (.720) with 12 extra-base hits in 113 at-bats. His career was off to a promising start, and it was time for him to move to a full-season league. During the 2019 season, Camargo headed to the Dodgers’ affiliate in the Midwest League. He caught over 550 innings for the first time in his career, and there were some offensive challenges with the increased level of competition. Still in his teens, Camargo was over two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level and faced older pitchers in over 91% of his plate appearances. In 79 games, he hit .236/.301/.342 (.642) with 18 doubles and four home runs. He showed some ability to draw walks while being one of the youngest players in the Midwest League. Minnesota looked to bolster their rotation entering the 2020 season, so the club traded Brusdar Graterol and Luke Raley to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda and Jair Camargo. Graterol and Maeda were the obvious headliners from the deal, but the Twins identified Camargo and thought he could potentially add future value to the trade. Unfortunately, the pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor league season, so that he couldn’t debut in the Twins system that season. The Twins sent Camargo to Cedar Rapids in 2021, where he was the third youngest player to suit up for the Kernels that season. He played over 100 innings at first base but continued to get plenty of time at catcher by starting 43 games. His OPS jumped over 50 points compared to 2019, and he hit double-digit home runs (13) for the first time in his career. Camargo continued to strikeout at a high rate with 106 strikeouts in 263 at-bats, but he was facing older pitchers in nearly 87% of his plate appearances. With this performance, he wouldn’t appear on top prospect lists, but he continued improving as he moved up the organizational ladder. Camargo has also gained some experience on the international stage. Over the last two winters, he has played in the Colombian Winter League and the Dominican Winter League. Following the 2021 season, he hit .185/.258/.296 (.555) with three home runs in 27 games for CWL. Last winter, he played in the Dominican and posted a .592 OPS with four extra-base hits over 76 plate appearances. He’s been significantly younger than the average age of the competition at those levels, but the experience should help him in the long run. During the 2022 campaign, Camargo split time between High- and Double-A. He began the season at Cedar Rapids with some of the best hitting in his professional career. In 28 games, he hit .296/.314/.496 (.809) with five doubles and six home runs. It was his first time posting an OPS above .800 at any level, so the Twins promoted him to Wichita. He posted a .778 OPS at Double-A with five doubles and 12 home runs in 46 games. He was over two years younger than the average age of the competition, and he continued to hold his own. The Twins could have sent Camargo back to Double-A for the 2023 season since he had played fewer than 50 games at Double-A. Instead, the club assigned him to Triple-A, where there were growing pains with the transition to a higher level. In his first 17 games, he went 7-for-62 (.113 BA) with two extra-base hits and a 27-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. From there, things took off for him at the plate. In his next 16 games, he went 19-for-61 (.312) with two doubles and seven home runs. He’s been one of the hottest hitters for the Saints, and it’s hard not to get excited about a power-hitting catching prospect. During the 2023 season, Camargo has only appeared at catcher and designated hitter. He’s gone 8-for-28 in throwing out runners (29 CS%) after throwing out 36% of runners in 2022. The Saints have yet to use a player younger than Camargo this season, and he has only had eight plate appearances against younger pitchers. He’s improved over the last two years and might have solidified his place in the Twins’ long-term plans. Can Camargo help the Twins in 2023? Will he be the team’s catcher of the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins fired him following the 2017 season and the Tigers hired him to manage their Triple-A affiliate. He only lasted two years in their organization and he hasn't managed since that point. Two organizations didn't feel like he was worth a longer look and he hasn't found a new spot, so I don't think the Twins missed out on much.

I just don't see them moving Buxton to CF especially when he is coming off the IL