Cody Christie

Successful teams in October rely on shutdown bullpen arms in the late innings of tight games. Minnesota's last playoff win came in 2004, with Joe Nathan earning the save at a time when he was considered one of the game's best closers. Flash-forward nearly two decades, and the team's bullpen is built around another dominant closer. Can the other relievers bridge the gap between the starters and the final innings? Minnesota's postseason roster will include changes from one round to the next if the team can win its best-of-three Wild Card Series. Rosters can include 26 players for the playoffs, so the club will likely utilize 15 position players and 11 pitchers for the first round. Three pitchers will be the scheduled starters, leaving eight spots open for bullpen arms. Closer: Jhoan Duran Duran has been one of baseball's best relievers over the last two seasons, ranking third among AL relievers in WPA since the start of 2022. He began the 2022 season well before a rough patch in July and August that saw his ERA rise from below 2.00 to nearly 3.00. Since August 4th, the Twins have focused on giving Duran more regular rest, significantly impacting his overall performance. In 16 games (16 2/3 innings), he has allowed two earned runs with a 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding batters to a .551 OPS. His lone blemish in recent games was the team's division-clinching win, but he said his nerves impacted his performance that night. In the playoffs, the Twins have some questions to answer about how they use Duran. How can he perform in back-to-back appearances? Will the Twins use him for more than one inning? Duran can be a playoff weapon, especially if the team finds a way to keep him fresh. Set-Up: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar Jax has earned a high-leverage role from the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons. However, there have been some up-and-down moments with his performance in 2023, including May, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.59. Bad luck has been mixed into his overall performance, as his ERA is nearly 70 points higher than his FIP. The Twins will ask Jax to get some critical outs in October, and the hope is that the dominant version of Jax will appear that night. Thielbar has saved the Twins bullpen in recent years after being on the brink of retirement. He's worked with Driveline in recent offseasons to move his fastball velocity from 89.8 mph to 93.0 mph during the 2023 season. He's added a sweeper that has limited batters to a .222 SLG, and his curveball generates whiffs over 30% of the time. As a southpaw, he has dominated against left-handed batters this year by holding them to a .356 OPS in over 45 plate appearances. The Twins can't use him strictly against lefties in the playoffs, so seeing how he is deployed will be interesting. Middle Relief: Emilio Pagan, Louie Varland Many fans were ready for the Twins to DFA Pagan earlier this season, but he's settled into one of the team's most reliable arms. His 3.17 ERA is the third lowest of his career and his lowest mark since the 2019 season. Pagan ranks third among Twins relievers in fWAR behind Duran and Jax. Pagan will be asked to get essential outs in the middle innings in the playoffs, and that's a scenario few would have imagined. Varland has only made a limited number of relief appearances after shifting to the role recently. However, he has been electric out of the bullpen with a triple-digit fastball and an improved cutter that can be a weapon against righties and lefties, including a 46% Swing%. His relief appearances haven't been perfect, but the Twins will need him to have a successful October. Injury Enforcements: Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack Stewart was one of the Twins' best relievers during the 2023 season before an arm injury forced him to the IL. There have been some setbacks along the way, but his most recent rehab saw his velocity in the high 90s, so there is hope he can help the postseason bullpen. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins added him to the bullpen mix last weekend. He got a lot of swings and misses during his rehab appearances, including hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball. There is potential for him to be a bullpen weapon in October that other teams need to prepare to face. Shifting Starters: Kenta Maeda, Dallas Keuchel Maeda has a solid argument to be the team's number-three starter in the postseason, but Joe Ryan is also in the conversation. Before joining the Twins, Maeda was used by the Dodgers in a relief role for multiple postseason runs. The current version of Maeda is very different from the dominant postseason arm. Keuchel has made multiple relief appearances for the Twins, but he's been used in a piggyback role, which isn't optimal for October. It isn't likely for Keuchel to see time on the mound in October unless there are some injuries. Rookie Wild Card: Kody Funderburk Funderburk has been one of the organization's best relief prospects over the last two seasons. The Twins waited until late in the season to give him his first taste of the big leagues, so it will be interesting to see if he gets an opportunity in October. Break Glass In Case of Emergency: Dylan Floro, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick, Cole Sands Something went wrong if the team asked any of these players to pitch significant innings in October. Injuries can always play a factor, but most of this group has moved up and down from Triple-A throughout the season. Minnesota's front office bet on the arms in the organization by not making a trade for relief help at the deadline. That faith will result in the best version of the club's bullpen so far this year, and it's happening at the perfect time. How do you feel the bullpen stacks up entering October? Do you have faith in the group covering the late innings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

It takes a team effort to win in October, including strong starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and depth up-and-down the line-up. In recent years, the Twins front office made a conscious effort to add to the starting rotation, with none of the team’s top-four starters being drafted by the club. Instead, Minnesota has identified pitchers in other organizations with the potential to improve and helped them reach another level after joining the organization. Now it’s time to see how the front office’s pitching plan can work on baseball’s biggest stage. Aces At The Top: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray An argument can be made for the Twins to start either of their top two pitchers in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round. Lopez has been pitching the day before Gray in the second half, so it seems likely for the team to keep the same order heading into October. He has been a strikeout machine in 2023 by accumulating more strikeouts than any Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. He had an ERA north of 4.20 through June, but his 3.38 FIP suggested he was a little unlucky. Since July, Lopez has been one of baseball’s best pitchers with a 2.87 ERA and a 102-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87 2/3 innings. Lopez was the team’s Opening Day starter, and he will lead the starting rotation for multiple years in the future. The Twins have invested in Lopez, and they will hope he puts the team in a position to end its playoff losing streak. Gray has been performing better than Lopez over the last month so the team might consider him for the Game 1 start. Gerrit Cole is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young, but Gray will likely finish in the top three as he ranks near the top of the AL in WAR, ERA, WHIP, and H/9. His most significant improvement has been with HR/9, where his 0.40 total is the AL’s best mark. Over his last six starts (37 IP), he has posted a 1.46 ERA with a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If the Twins lose Game 1, there is no pitcher the club would rather have on the mound in an elimination game. He’s made four previous starts in the playoffs, but half of those were over a decade ago. Gray is heading to free agency at the season’s end and will want to make a solid final impression before hitting the open market. Game 3 Starter: Joe Ryan The Twins will have a decision to make when naming a starter for Game 3 of the Wild Card round between Ryan and Kenta Maeda. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half but hit a rough patch in the middle of the season when he tried to pitch through a groin injury. He has pitched well in six starts since returning from the IL with a 3.82 ERA and a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 30 2/3 innings. Maeda will be on the roster, but what if the Twins decide to use him in a relief role earlier in the series? It’s also interesting to consider the team using a piggyback situation for Game 3, with Ryan starting and Maeda relieving him out of the bullpen. Starter Options for Other Rounds: Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Dallas Keuchel The Twins will likely need at least three starters for their Wild Card series, which means one of these arms needs to be ready to start Game 1 of the ALDS. Maeda has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers in the second half, with a 3.60 ERA and a 71-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 65 innings. There’s a chance the Twins use Maeda out of the bullpen to survive the Wild Card round, which might push Ober into a Game 1 start. Ober has already posted a career-high in innings pitched, so there has been some discussion about how much he has left in the tank. Minnesota demoted him earlier this month, and he was skipped two times in the rotation before making another start. The Twins have won both of his starts since he returned from Triple-A, and he has thrown five innings and allowed two earned runs in both starts. Keuchel is probably not seeing much October action, but the team can turn to him in a pinch if something happens to one of the other starters. He has allowed three runs or more in four of his eight appearances with the Twins. The top of Minnesota’s rotation might be the strongest it has been for a postseason run in decades. It will take a team effort to make a long playoff run, but the rotation seems built for October success. How do you feel the team’s starting staff lines up for October? How do they compare to other starting staffs in the American League? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Strikeouts have become increasingly part of the game because baseball is a game that continually evolves. Increases in research and technology have allowed pitchers to add velocity and more movement to their pitches, making them even more challenging to hit. Batters also have a wealth of data about opposing pitchers. Hitting a round baseball with a round bat is one of the most challenging tasks in professional sports, leading to higher strikeout totals. Pitching Staff’s Strike Out Prowess Minnesota’s pitching staff entered play on Sunday with a league-leading 1,461 strikeouts. The Twins have baseball’s highest K% (25.4%) and K-BB% (17.9%). Minnesota can realistically move into the all-time top-25 list for strikeouts at their current rate of striking out more than 9.2 times per game. The 2018 Houston Astros set the all-time record with 1,687 strikeouts, but to reach the top 25, the Twins only need to collect 1,524 strikeouts. Building a strikeout pitching staff has taken some time, but the Twins have developed arms up-and-down the roster. Pablo Lopez leads the Twins with over 228 strikeouts, which puts him into elite company among the franchise’s strikeout list. Only three pitchers in team history have struck out more batters in a season than Lopez. Joe Ryan led the Twins in strikeouts during the 2022 season, and he currently ranks second on the team with 181, with Sonny Gray only two strikeouts behind him. Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda have accumulated over 100 strikeouts during the season. Minnesota’s bullpen also includes three pitchers (Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran, and Kody Funderburk) with a K/9 of 11.5 or higher. In tight playoff games, strikeouts can be the difference between a team getting out of a jam or seeing the opposition score runs. Lineup Strikeout Issues The Twins lineup has already set the team record for strikeouts in a season, and they are in the top 15 all-time for strikeouts in MLB history. Minnesota has struck out ten times or more in 88 times through the team’s first 155 games, which smashes the previous record of 66 games with 10+ strikeouts. Unfortunately, the team has also struck out 13 times or more in 33 games this season, with a season-high 18 strikeouts versus Seattle on July 25th. Looking at the lineup, there is some hope for a late-season turnaround. Things have changed in the second half with the emergence of a young core that has improved the team’s overall offensive output while also improving at drawing walks. Among American League teams, only the Houston Astros have scored more runs since the All-Star break. Six Twins players have a K% above 30% for the season, with Joey Gallo leading the way (42.8%). Three of the six players will have little to do with the playoff roster, including Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton. Recent Postseason History Strikeouts play a role in October but don’t guarantee postseason success. During the 2022 season, the four pitching staffs in the Championship Series ranked in the top 10 or higher in strikeout rate. Offensively, none of the final four ranked higher than 13th in total strikeouts. The Astros won the World Series and finished with the fourth-most strikeouts from their pitching staff and the second-fewest strikeouts from their batters. In 2021, the Braves won the World Series, and their batters finished with the 11th most strikeouts while their pitchers were only slightly above the league average. The Dodgers (2nd), Red Sox (5th), and Astros (11th) were among the final four teams and ranked higher than the Braves according to strikeouts from the pitching staff. However, the Astros (2nd fewest strikeouts) were the lone final four team to be better than league-average on the offensive side. The Twins have embraced the strikeout on both sides of the ball. Only the 2015 Cubs and the 1958 Dodgers have led the league in both pitching and batting strikeout rates in the same season. Both clubs went on to win the World Series the following season. Twins fans likely don’t want to wait until next year and can hope their strikeout performance can carry them during the 2023 postseason. Are you worried about the Twins’ strikeout totals? Can a team succeed in the postseason on the two strikeout extremes? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Byron Buxton made his first appearance in center field as part of a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on August 30th. During his next game, he was removed from action because of inflammation and irritation in his right knee. This type of reaction can be expected when a player is dealing with knee issues and attempting to ramp up after extended time off. As a procedural move, the Twins pulled him off his rehab assignment on September 5th so that they could reset his 20-day rehab window. Last week, head athletic trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that he still anticipates that Buxton will appear in games for the Twins this season. Buxton received a cortisone injection to deal with his right knee issue, and he began rotational work on Thursday. The Saints have fewer than ten games remaining on their schedule, making it tough to ramp him up for the playoffs, but the Twins believe Buxton can still be ready to help the team. "We will make it happen," Paparesta said. "We're going to make it happen in the context of us being able to get him at-bats and get him prepared to play, yes." Minnesota also believes Buxton has a chance to play in center field even though he has yet to make an outfield appearance for the Twins this season. "My impression is for him to be able to play wherever he needs to be able to play for this team," Paparesta said. Twins fans are likely trepidatious when considering Buxton's previous injury history and the idea of him returning to center field in a season that is quickly closing. Minnesota has other center field options like Michael A. Taylor, Willi Castro, and Andrew Stevenson, who each offer different skill sets. However, Buxton is one of the game's best overall players when he is performing at the top of his game, which has yet to be something fans have seen much in 2023. Playoff baseball is on the horizon for the Twins, and the front office might need to get creative regarding Buxton's postseason role. There is room on the playoff roster for extra bench options to fill specific roles such as pinch runner, defensive replacement, or platoon bat. The team will need to consider multiple options if Buxton's knee can't handle regular outfield duties and they still want to have him on the October roster. A right-handed bench bat has been one of the Twins' most significant needs throughout the regular season. The club didn't address this need during the winter because they hoped Buxton would be joined in the middle of the line-up with other right-handed power bats like Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda. Injuries have impacted all three players this season, and the team's struggles against left-handed pitching have been well-documented. The trade deadline offered a new opportunity to add a right-handed bat, but the Twins didn't make any offensive additions. Instead, Minnesota turned to the waiver wire and selected Jordan Luplow to add power against lefties. In 24 games with the Twins, he has hit .250/.357/.438 (.795) with five extra-base hits and a 117 OPS+. Against lefties, he has posted an .838 OPS for the season, which will be challenging for the front office to ignore. The Twins have an opportunity to move Buxton to a bench bat role for the postseason so they can spot him against left-handed relievers. The Twins have few other options in the organization with as much power potential versus lefties, and it would allow Buxton to limit his time on the field. Buxton's streakiness against left-handed pitching makes it hard to know what to expect from him in a small sample size. In previous years, Buxton has shown an ability to return quickly from injuries and immediately impact the line-up. Minnesota can hope he represents a threat off the bench, especially versus some potentially strong left-handed relievers in October. Buxton's return will likely be messy, especially with a team already facing a roster crunch on the offensive side. Will Buxton be able to prepare for the rigors of center field? Or is it time to consider a bench bat role for a potential playoff run? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The Texas Rangers looked like one of the American League's best teams for most of the season's first half. Some second-half struggles have dropped them from the top of the AL West, but they seemed to have regained their form in the season's final month. Let's review the season series between Minnesota and Texas while also looking ahead to a potential playoff match-up. Twins vs. Rangers Season Series Recap The Twins faced the Rangers for seven games in ten days when Texas was in their worst slump of the year. Minnesota took five of the seven games by outscoring the Rangers 47-to-33. The series had some heated moments, including a benches-clearing altercation. Sonny Gray hit former Twins catcher Mitch Garver with a pitch after Ryan Jeffers had been hit by a Texas pitcher earlier in the game. Jeffers had smashed a game-winning homer the previous night, which included an epic bat flip, so the Rangers were likely retaliating for this incident. Emotions can run even higher in the playoffs, so seeing how these teams react when facing off on an even bigger stage will be interesting. Rangers Starting Rotation Texas traded for Max Scherzer at the trade deadline to headline their rotation for a potential playoff run. Unfortunately, he has a teres major strain, which means he is unlikely to pitch in the postseason. Jacob deGrom was the team's big offseason signing, but he had to undergo Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Nathan Eovaldi was an All-Star, but a second-half injury has limited him, and he has yet to be stretched back out. If he started in October, he would likely be limited in the number of pitches he could throw, which might have Texas looking to other rotational options. The team's other rotational options are Jordan Montgomery, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney. Montgomery and Heaney are left-handed pitchers, which has caused the Twins some issues this season. Gray, Heaney, and Dunning all have ERA's north of 3.90. In seven games against Rangers pitchers, the Twins hit .263/.357/.486 (.843) with ten doubles, one triple, and 15 home runs. It was the club's second-highest OPS versus any opponent they played in over four games. Rangers Bullpen While the Rangers starters might not be daunting, the Texas bullpen has the potential to cause some issues for the Twins. Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman are the team's top two relievers, and both are lefties. Minnesota has seen Chapman in five games this season and has gone 3-for-17 (.177 BA) with ten strikeouts and four walks. Smith saw the Twins go 2-for-9 against him, including a home run. These are obviously small sample sizes, but the Twins will need some right-handed bats off the bench to counter when Texas turns it over to their top relievers. Jose Leclerc, Brock Burke, and Martin Perez are other bullpen options, with Burke and Perez being southpaws. Leclerc has posted a 10.3 K/9 with a 144 ERA+ in 50 appearances. Perez, a former Twins starter, has bounced between the rotation and bullpen in 2023. There is a real chance that Texas can use an entire left-handed group in games against the Twins. Rangers Line-Up The Rangers' offense is led by their two huge free-agent signings from two offseasons ago, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Seager will garner MVP consideration as he ranks second in the AL in rWAR behind Shohei Ohtani. He leads the AL in doubles, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. Semien struggled mightily in his first season with the Rangers but returned to his All-Star caliber form in 2023. He is tied for third in rWAR and will likely be a top-five finisher for AL MVP. Outside their tremendous duo are other complementary pieces to the Rangers line-up. Adolis Garcia has hit over 30 home runs for the second time in his career. Mitch Garver posted a 1.282 OPS against his former team this season, including four home runs in 24 at-bats. Nathaniel Lowe has a 120 OPS+ and 55 extra-base hits in 146 games. Jonah Heim has been one of the AL's best offensive catchers, with 26 doubles and 17 home runs in 117 games. The Rangers have been a good team for different stretches of the season. Their group of left-handed pitchers can pose a threat, especially with Minnesota's struggles against southpaws. However, the Twins fared well against them during the regular season and can hope for more of the same in the playoffs. What are your thoughts about a potential playoff match-up between the Twins and Rangers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Back in May, the Twins first announced that Correa was dealing with plantar fasciitis, a lingering foot injury that takes time to go away. Time off his feet can help to deal with the immediate issues surrounding the injury, but it will likely take an entire offseason to recover. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli dealt with the injury during his playing career, and it didn’t go away until he took the offseason to get off his feet. Unfortunately, other players deal with plantar fasciitis for the remainder of their careers. Correa has played in over 130 games for the third consecutive season but is putting up the worst offensive numbers of his career. In 132 games, he is hitting .230/.310/.402 (.712) with 29 doubles, two triples, and 18 home runs. His 94 OPS+ is the second-lowest total of his career behind the shortened 2020 season. He has played more games than any other Twins player, but the club might need to find ways to give him more of a break during the stretch run. The Twins gave Correa two consecutive days off last week after his injury seemed to impact his defense in back-to-back games. He was charged with an error last Monday and misplayed a ball on Tuesday that allowed a run to score. These were both uncharacteristic plays for a former Platinum Glove winner at shortstop, even if he has lost a step on the defensive side of the ball. His injury has also impacted his base running, as he has been arguably the team’s worst base runner. Even with his struggles, Correa’s offensive performance seems to be coming around since the calendar turned to September. In the month’s first 12 games, he has gone 15-for-48 (.313 BA) with three doubles and two home runs. His .865 OPS is 130 points higher than any other month this season. Correa finished last season on a high note in September, and he’s been known for being a strong performer in the playoffs. Now, the Twins hope Correa can hit his stride for an October playoff run. The Twins will need to try and find the balance of rest for Correa while also keeping him ready for the postseason. His schedule will likely include multiple days off in a row or sitting out a game if the club has an off day on the next day. The Twins have two remaining off days: Thursday, September 21st, and Monday, September 25th. The Twins likely give him the day off in the games before or after the off days to maximize his rest time. He’s made it clear that he wants to be in the line-up regularly, even if his heel is bothering him. “I’m getting paid to play baseball, right?” said Correa to reporters. “If I feel like I can go out there and at least be a certain percentage where I can just play and try to help the team, I’m going to show up. I don’t like being on the IL. I don’t like sitting out.” Entering play on Monday, the Twins have 12 remaining games on the schedule, with the final three in the high altitude of Colorado. It seems likely for Correa to play in seven or fewer of the team’s remaining games, including limited action during the Rockies series. The Twins can also give him time at DH to keep his bat in the line-up while also avoiding some of the strain on his heel. How much should the Twins play Correa over the season’s final games? Are you encouraged by his offensive performance in September? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Caleb Thielbar spent four straight seasons pitching in the minor leagues for three different organizations. His last big-league appearance had been a brief one with the Twins in 2015, and teams weren’t giving him a chance even with some strong numbers in the upper minors. Thielbar decided the 2019 season would be his last, and he accepted a pitching coach position at Augustana University in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Instead, the Twins gave him one final chance, and it has altered the team’s bullpen for nearly half a decade. Minnesota added Thielbar for the 2020 season in hopes he could make the Opening Day roster. The pandemic impacted the entire season, but Thielbar performed well during the shortened campaign. In 20 innings, he posted a 2.25 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Thielbar proved he still had something left in the tank, but he also decided to find new ways to improve himself during the offseason. Thielbar has worked on his pitching mechanics and added 20 pounds to his frame over the last two seasons. Thielbar has been a regular at Driveline since 2017 to work on his mechanics and add a sweeper. His sweeper is now his second most used pitch, and he’s held batters to a .111 BA and .222 SLG versus this pitch in 2023. His fastball has also gained velocity over the last four seasons, moving from 89.8 mph in 2020 to 93.0 mph this season. Thielbar’s curveball has also been a wipe-out pitch by generating whiffs over 30% of the time. Thielbar has been elite against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .140/.140/.233 (.372) with 11 strikeouts in 43 plate appearances. Righties have posted a .788 against him, slightly higher than the league average. However, he has more strikeouts (17) than hits allowed versus right-handed hitters. Thielbar has surrendered four home runs against righties, with two coming in back-to-back games near the end of August. Since then, he has tossed eight straight scoreless appearances by only allowing two hits. Since 2020, Thielbar ranks 24th among AL relievers in fWAR, the top ranking among Twins pitchers. Former Twins closer Taylor Rogers is one spot ahead of Thielbar, with current Twins reliever Dylan Floro ranking 18th. WAR can be a challenging measurement for relievers since it is a counting stat, and relievers work in small sample sizes. Win Probability Added can also point to solid performances out of the bullpen. Over the last four seasons, Thielbar ranks 20th among relievers in WPA, with Jhoan Duran (8th) being the lone Twins reliever ahead of Thielbar. Thielbar’s 2023 season is among the best in Twins’ history. Three relievers (Joe Nathan, Al Worthington, and Dean Chance) are the only pitchers in team history to throw more innings with a lower ERA than Thielbar. Nathan had multiple seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA on his way to being one of the best relievers in team history. Worthington didn’t pitch for the Twins until his late 30s but became a strong closer for some of the best teams in Minnesota history. Chance was a two-time All-Star and a starter on Twins teams in the late 1960s. That is quite the company for Thielbar, a reliever in his late 30s who was on the brink of retiring. Even with his age, Thielbar spent so much time in the minor leagues that he is still arbitration-eligible for one more season. Minnesota will likely bring him back for one more season to see what he has left in the tank for his age-37 season. The Twins front office hasn’t spent a lot of resources investing in the bullpen, but coaxing Thielbar out of retirement has been one of the most valuable acquisitions in recent years. What are your impressions of Thielbar over the last four seasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The Twins are inching closer to their third division title over the last five seasons, and the team will have a chance to clinch as soon as next week. The AL Central has been historically bad in 2023, but that might not stop the Twins from ending their 18-game playoff losing streak. Minnesota has strong starting pitching, an offense that has improved in the second half, and a strong backend of the bullpen. After the team clinches, items remain on the team’s postseason checklist. 1. Health Player health is at the top of any team’s checklist, especially near the conclusion of a 162-game season. The Twins have health questions surrounding multiple players in the season’s final weeks. Byron Buxton was rehabbing, hoping to return to center field for the Twins. He suffered a setback, and it remains unclear if he will return. Michael A. Taylor has performed well for the Twins in place of Buxton, but he, too, is on the IL with a hamstring injury. Minnesota doesn’t want to rush him back, but they also want to ensure he can handle the rigors of regular playing time. On the pitching side, other players are nearing a return. Jorge Alcala and Chris Paddack moved their rehab assignments to Double-A on Tuesday. Alcala has missed most of the last two seasons with arm injuries, so his path forward this year is unclear. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota could use him in various roles for the stretch run. He seems unlikely to be stretched out to serve as a starter, but there is an opportunity to fit into the bullpen. Brock Stewart is a little behind Alcala and Paddack but should start a rehab assignment soon. Other players on the roster have been fighting through injuries that will need rest in the season’s final weeks. Carlos Correa has battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season, and the Twins have tried to give him small breaks when there are opportunities. Edouard Julien has a leg injury and could benefit from a few days off his feet. There should be opportunities to rest players down the stretch so they can be closer to 100% when the playoffs begin. 2. Experiment with Roles Center field has been a question mark since Taylor went on the IL with the Twins using a combination of Willi Castro and Andrew Stevenson. Taylor has already hit a career-high 20 home runs and is one of the game’s best outfield defenders. Minnesota needs to experiment with different options in center field if Buxton and Taylor aren’t an option for October. Castro has provided value to the Twins with his versatility and base running this season, but there are potentially some better options if health doesn’t interfere. The Twins are also experimenting with different roles in the bullpen. Louie Varland has shifted from starter to reliever with mixed results since being recalled by the Twins. Kody Funderburk has been one of the organization’s best relief prospects over the last two seasons, but the team didn’t call him up until late this season. There is also the possibility of the team needing to move some of the starters to a relief role for October. Kenta Maeda has playoff experience in a late-inning bullpen role, while Dallas Keuchel likely doesn’t have a spot in the playoff rotation. Will either of these pitchers make relief appearances in the season’s final weeks? 3. Line-Up Starting Pitching Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have performed well recently, but neither has been a beacon of health throughout their professional careers. Lopez is nearing a career-high in innings after pitching 180 frames during the 2022 campaign. Gray has pitched over 140 innings for only the second time since 2018. Both pitchers will likely receive Cy Young votes this season, and the Twins need to find them extra days of rest before October. It’s more likely for Joe Ryan to be the team’s starter for Game 3 in the playoffs, but he’s also returning from a recent groin injury. Before his IL trip, he tried to pitch through the injury, and his performance suffered. He’s been significantly better in his handful of starts since returning from the IL, and the Twins hope this trend continues. Minnesota will want to ensure their top three starters are well-rested and lined up to pitch in the team’s Wild Card series. Would you add any other items to the team’s postseason checklist? Do you agree with the items on this checklist? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

The Twins drafted Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He was coming off a tremendous college career where he posted a 1.116 OPS during his junior season, along with helping Oregon State to the College World Series title. Minnesota's current front office has preferred drafting powerful college bats, and Larnach fits that mold. Larnach's future outlook with the team is cloudy five years into his professional career. Larnach will turn 27 this winter, and he's played 180 games at the big-league level. There have been flashes of the power hitter the Twins drafted, but his overall performance has been underwhelming. In 669 plate appearances, he has hit .223/315/.380 (.695) with 31 doubles, three triples, and 18 home runs. His 94 OPS+ is below league average, and he's posted a 228-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins hoped for more from Larnach, especially entering the 2023 season. Multiple Twins players began the year on the injured list, which created a spot on the Opening Day roster for Larnach. In the season's first month, he hit .242/.354/.390 (.744) with seven extra-base hits in 28 games. The Twins sent him to Triple-A at the beginning of May, and he proceeded to go 7-for-14 with two doubles and two home runs before being called back up to Minnesota. He'd bounce back and forth throughout the season, but he's been in St. Paul since the end of July with seemingly no room for him on the big-league roster. Since his most recent demotion (33 games), Larnach has posted a .907 OPS with eight doubles, one triple, and six home runs. St. Paul's hitting environment is a little different than the big-league level, and one would expect him to hit well with his level of professional experience. However, some areas have caused him struggles since being drafted, including hitting versus offspeed pitches and finding consistent success against left-handed pitchers. Larnach has posted a .856 OPS versus right-handed pitchers for the season while being held to a .596 OPS against southpaws. Lefties have struck him out in 32 of his 79 at-bats this season, and only four of his 14 hits have been for extra bases when facing same-sided pitchers. The Twins have done a good job limiting his exposure to tough left-handed starters, but that also determines the value he can provide to the big-league club. He struggled with offspeed pitches as he moved up the organizational ladder. Larnach kills fastballs and has provided 10.8 runs above average when facing fastballs throughout his big-league career. Against all other breaking pitches, he has negative runs above average, including -7.8 against change-ups and -3.2 against sliders. Facing a lower level of competition at Triple-A likely won't help him improve against off-speed pitches, and it's one of the reasons he continues to find success at that level. Entering the 2024 season, Larnach has one option year remaining, but he has little left to prove at the Triple-A level. The Twins will have some decisions with the team's outfield for 2024. Max Kepler has a $10 million team option for 2024, and he's provided over $17 million in value this season. Matt Wallner has gone through his share of ups and downs, but he surpassed Larnach on the team's depth chart. Other players, including Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin, might fit into the team's corner outfield plans. The Twins' front office values depth, which might be what Larnach represents at this point in his career. Last winter, there were conversations about the Twins being willing to trade from their corner outfield depth, and that might come to fruition again this offseason. Larnach will keep swinging away at Triple-A while waiting for another opportunity to prove he can be a full-time player. What role will Larnach fit on the Twins next season? Is he more than a platoon outfielder? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli was clear with Bailey Ober as spring training began. He was the sixth arm in the starting rotation and was only making the Opening Day roster if one of the arms in front of him was not ready. The Twins had been plagued by injuries in 2022, so it seemed likely for the injury bug to bite one of the starters. However, that wouldn't be the case. Ober pitched well in the spring by allowing three earned runs on four hits with a 0.70 WHIP and batters posting a .121 BA. On the depth chart, there were veterans ahead of him, so the Twins sent him to Triple-A. Ober said all the appropriate things when he was demoted, but it had to be frustrating for a pitcher with a proven track record at the big-league level. From 2021-22, he posted a 3.82 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a 147-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 148 1/3 innings. Injuries had been the biggest hindrance to Ober's performance, as he had never pitched more than 108 innings in any professional season. The Twins needed to monitor Ober's innings, especially if he stayed healthy for the entire season. Ober's time with the Saints got off to a poor start. In his first two starts, he didn't make it out of the fourth inning and allowed five earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Mentally, the demotion had to impacted his performance, but he turned it around from there. Over his next two starts, he pitched 11 shutout innings while limiting batters to five hits and striking out 12. Tyler Mahle suffered a season-ending injury at the big-league level, and Ober was the next man up. After the call-up, Ober became one of the team's most consistent and effective starting pitchers. In his first 16 starts (94 2/3 IP), he posted a 2.76 ERA with a 90-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Batters hit .215/.262/.366 (.628) against him, and it looked like Ober was lining up to be one of the team's starting pitchers in October. Unfortunately, Ober hit a wall as the calendar turned to August while he also passed a new career-high in innings pitched. Over his subsequent six appearances, Ober's performance struggled mightily. He allowed 21 earned runs in 28 innings with opponents hitting .328/.377/.588 (.965) against him, including eight home runs. The Twins decided it was time for Ober to get a breather, and the only way to make that happen was to demote him to Triple-A for the second time. "Bailey is as professional a young man as you're ever going to find in this game," Baldelli said. "The way he conducts himself every day of his life is very impressive, and I've had several conversations with him over the last couple of years that were not easy. Today was not an easy conversation, but I think long term, this setup, this move that we're making right now, is going to benefit him." Throughout the season's second half, the Twins had talked about finding subtle ways to limit Ober's innings. Some options included using piggybacking, a six-man rotation, or skipping starts to push back his spot in the order. During the 2021 season, he pitched 108 1/3 innings, a career high. Previously, he had never surpassed 80 innings in any of his seven professional seasons. Between Triple-A and the Majors, he has combined for 140 1/3 innings while also staying relatively healthy. He might be out of gas, but it's a critical time of the year to miss one of the team's best starters. Seeing how the Twins handle Ober for the season's remaining games will be interesting. He will get a few extra days to rest before he starts throwing again for the Saints. It also remains to be seen if the team will continue to use him as a starter. Minnesota already transitioned Louie Varland from a starter to a relief role for the stretch run, but Ober might not be the best candidate to move to the bullpen. The best strategy might be to give him shorter starts with someone ready to piggyback him so he can stay stretched out. Ober has proven himself at the big-league level and is part of the team's long-term plan for the starting rotation. It's tough not to think he's gotten the short end of the stick on multiple occasions this year. The team demoted him two times even though he had a proven track record at the big-league level. Also, the club talked about limiting his innings during the year, but that never came to fruition. Instead, he finds himself at Triple-A while the Twins fight for the division title. Perhaps the Twins followed the appropriate strategy with Ober by running him out there regularly until his performance started to suffer. However, the optics of the entire situation are not great from Ober's point of view. He lost service time at both ends of the season because of decisions made by the front office. The team will stress that it is the best thing for his health, but there were other ways to handle him during the season so he could be part of the team for the stretch run. Do you feel the Twins have handled Ober appropriately this season? Should veterans be treated differently by the front office? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Like many teams, the Twins focused on improving base running this spring, including bringing in former manager Paul Molitor to provide instruction. It would be great if coaching and strategy could help a team improve on the base paths, but a team can't make giant strides without the appropriate personnel. Slow baserunners will continue to be slow baserunners, which has held true for Minnesota this season. Last week, FanGraphs ran through the players who get the least from their base running, and the Twins were featured prominently in the piece. The site uses a metric called Base Running (BsR) that includes stolen bases, caught stealing, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average. The Twins have multiple players who rank poorly on the base paths, including some that may be surprising. Here are the team's five worst base runners. 5. Jose Miranda, 3B Base Running: -1.5 The Twins expected Miranda to play a pivotal role during the 2023 campaign, but a shoulder injury limited him to 40 games. Even in limited action, Miranda's poor base running was in full effect. Last season, he finished with a -4.5 BsR, ranking fourth worst on the Twins. He would rank significantly higher on this list if he played more games this season. Minnesota moved Miranda to the 60-day IL over the last week, so he won't get to improve his baserunning until the 2024 campaign. 4. Donovan Solano, UTL Base Running: -2.4 Solano has been integral to the Twins' line-up this season, hitting .294/.379/.411 (.790) with 24 doubles and five home runs. His 117 OPS+ is the second-highest total of his career. Despite a solid offensive season, Solano is among the team's worst base runners. Last season, he posted a -2.0 BsR in 80 games for the Reds, and his 2023 BsR total is the second lowest of his career. 3. Max Kepler, OF Base Running: -4.4 Kepler looks the part of a player who would be a strong base runner, including having a sprint speed in the 54th percentile. However, Baseball Savant ranks him in the 10th percentile for baserunning value, which is worth -2 runs. Kepler has yet to steal a base this season, and he's had limited opportunities to take an extra base. In previous seasons, Kepler has been an above-average runner, so his early season leg injuries might have hampered his overall numbers. 2. Christian Vazquez, C Base Running: -4.1 Catchers typically fill up the rankings of baseball's worst base runners, and Vazquez is no exception. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has been baseball's least valuable baserunner by accumulating -14.0 BsR. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the second percentile for baserunning value and in the fifth percentile, which has cost the Twins three runs this season. His sprint speed is in the ninth percentile, so few runners are slower than Vazquez on the base paths. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Base Running: -7.7 Over the weekend, Carlos Correa set the team record by hitting into the most double plays in one season. He's been the team's worst base runner during the 2023 season, and only Vazquez has ranked worse than Correa over the last two seasons. Correa has dealt with plantar fasciitis throughout the season, which might have added to his poor baserunning. He has also been very aware of how slow he has been this season when talking to reporters. Correa has been undeniably slow, impacting the team throughout the season. How would you rank the Twins' worst baserunners? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

I’ve written about Twins baseball since 2010 and ranked the team’s prospects throughout the past 14 seasons. It’s impossible to get everything right when evaluating young players in an organization. There were prospects I ranked highly that never put it all together, and others have exceeded expectations. Royce Lewis is one of the players who I thought had flaws in his game that would become more evident as he moved up the organizational ladder. It’s becoming more apparent that I was wrong about Mr. Lewis, but I wasn’t the only one who doubted him over the last six years. All three national prospect rankings placed Lewis among the baseball’s top-10 prospects entering the 2019 season. He would stay highly ranked through the pandemic, but multiple ACL tears meant he dropped to 40th or lower on the national lists. In December 2019, I asked if the Twins could fix Lewis’ swing. Entering the 2022 season, I wrote that Lewis’ stock was falling and included him with the likes of Keoni Cavaco and Blayne Enlow. Those are just a few examples of articles where I doubted the team’s top prospects at the time. Here is how some of the national writers were wrong about Lewis. MLB Pipeline: During the 2022 season, MLB Pipeline ranked Lewis as baseball’s number 46 prospect. It was the first time he dropped out of their top 20 since being drafted by the Twins. As part of their rankings, they considered that he would miss another 12 months after reinjuring the same ACL that kept him out the previous season. It was a tough pill to swallow for Twins fans and Lewis, but he stayed positive, and the results speak for themselves during the 2023 season. What They Said At the Time: “The main variance might be with his hit tool. He spent most of 2019 struggling being on time at the plate as he utilizes a big leg kick and has a busy swing, leading to a loss of approach.” Lewis is hitting above .300 for his big-league career with a 137 OPS+, so it seems his approach is working even with the amount of time he has missed during his career. The Athletic: Keith Law has been a prospect writer for ESPN and The Athletic for decades after working in the Toronto Blue Jays front office. Throughout Lewis’s professional career, Law continued to rank the shortstop among his top 100 prospects while pointing out the player’s flaws on both sides of the ball. Law might have been right about moving Lewis off shortstop, but his evaluation of Lewis’s swing has not been correct. What They Said At the Time: “Before the 2019 season, he adopted a high leg kick and big hand movement, but instead of driving the ball more he would bail out more often and make weak contact on stuff away. The Twins have worked with him to get him more online so he can work toward the middle of the field, making better quality contact and letting him use his legs more often. Lewis is rough at shortstop, with all of the athleticism and speed to play there but well below-average actions and instincts.” Lewis has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields and continues to showcase a powerful swing that wasn’t anticipated when the Twins originally drafted him. FanGraphs: Like the evaluations above, the Fangraphs prospect team felt there were flaws to Lewis’s swing that would limit his overall value. Despite an MVP AFL performance, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel felt Lewis needed to get better at pitch recognition and eliminate some elements of his swing. What They Said At the Time: “Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous — the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands — and it negatively impacts Lewis’ timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he’s often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn’t seem to recognize very well, and after the advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, Lewis now looks like a guess hitter.” Lewis has hit for average and power during his first 50+ games in the big leagues, and the Twins hope his new approach will make him a middle-of-the-order hitter for the next decade. What other national outlets were wrong about Lewis? Can he continue to perform at this level throughout his big-league career? Which prospects have you been wrong about in the past? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.