Cody Christie

He’s injured too much. He can’t play in center field. He’s slowed down on the bases. Why did the Twins give him that contract? Despite his detractors, Byron Buxton is proving his worth in 2024. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports He’s injured too much. He can’t play in center field. He’s slowed down on the bases. Why did the Twins give him that contract? Despite his detractors, Byron Buxton is proving his worth in 2024. In a perfect world, Byron Buxton would have played at an All-Star level for his entire career by avoiding injuries and producing in all facets of the game. After he was drafted with the second overall pick in 2012, Buxton's journey to stardom was riddled with setbacks and challenges that tested his resolve and the faith of those who believed in him. There have been stretches where he has been baseball’s best hitter, and times when his body failed him. It can be challenging for fans to grasp his true value. Buxton has carried the weight of expectations from a fanbase hungry for success. The Twins placed their faith and resources into Buxton, signing him to a seven-year, $100 million contract extension. Many questioned the decision (and continue to question it), citing Buxton's injury history and inconsistent performance. Yet, those who truly understood the game saw beyond the statistics; they saw a player whose potential transcended mere numbers. After undergoing an arthroscopic procedure to excise the plica (a membrane flap) in his right knee, Buxton entered the season with renewed optimism. In April, he posted a .678 OPS with 10 extra-base hits in 27 games. His offensive performance was below his output in recent years, and he racked up a 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 99 plate appearances. Buxton was providing value by playing more regularly in center field while showing his speed on the bases. However, it was a different style of player than last season, when he was relegated to DH duties. In May, Buxton made small strides at the plate, raising his OPS 74 points in 43 plate appearances. He missed 14 games with inflammation in his right knee, a disheartening injury based on his recent history. Buxton failed to produce offensively, and another trip to the IL gave more ammunition to his detractors. It was easy to imagine a scenario whereby Buxton returns and struggles to produce on either side of the ball. Instead, he’s shown his actual value in recent weeks. Since Jun. 7, Buxton has gone 24-for-70 (.343), with five doubles, one triple, and five home runs. He homered four times in the last six games, fueling a career-long stretch wherein he drove in at least one run in six straight games. His OPS for the season ranks among the league leaders in center field. His sprint speed continues to be elite (98th percentile), helping him be one of the game’s best defenders in that spot. He ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in fielding run value, OAA, arm strength, and arm value. Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when he is healthy. Last season, Buxton struggled through his knee injury, attempting to provide the Twins with value from the DH spot. FanGraphs pegged him as being worth $5 million. In 2024, he has already been worth $14.1 million, and the season is only a little over half over. Minnesota has paid him $51 million to this point in his career, and Buxton has provided the Twins with nearly $163 million in total value. Buxton is living up to his contract, even if his performance declines in the second half. There are limits to what a team can get with $15 million per season on the market these days, and the Twins can get plenty of excess value when Buxton is playing at his current level. But it wasn't just his value that endeared him to fans and teammates alike; it was his unwavering humility and determination. Buxton never sought the spotlight or craved accolades. Instead, he let his performance on the field speak for itself, earning the respect of the competition. His leadership extends beyond the diamond, where he mentors younger players and serves as a role model for aspiring athletes in the community. Buxton and the Twins knew that his contract extension was not just a financial investment, but a testament to the power of perseverance. For the organization and its fans, he was more than just a player. He symbolized hope, and a reminder that greatness could be achieved with unwavering dedication and belief. He has been the Twins' symbol of intensified, concentrated greatness, in the face of occasionally career-threatening adversity. Will Buxton provide the Twins with $100 million of value during the life of his contract, for your money? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have taken different approaches to recent trade deadlines, and reviewing the front office’s plans might help us understand the team’s 2024 deadline path. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have taken different approaches to recent trade deadlines, and reviewing the front office’s plans might help us understand the team’s 2024 deadline path. Every baseball fan base wants their team to make a splash at the trade deadline by making moves viewed as going "all in" for a World Series run. Can the club add a front-line starting pitcher to anchor a rotation? Is there a way to acquire a dominant late-inning bullpen arm? Or can they find a potent bat to insert into the middle of the lineup? Unfortunately, only one team walks away a winner at the end of October, and baseball’s playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot. So, what have Derek Falvey and Thad Levine done at recent trade deadlines when the team has been in contention? 2023 Trade Deadline: The Twins had a quiet trade deadline last season with a strategy to rely on internal players to fit the team’s needs. Minnesota’s lone move last year was to trade Jorge López for Dylan Floro in what was considered a change-of-scenery trade for both bullpen arms. Minnesota relied on the returns of Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart, and Chris Paddack to bolster multiple parts of the roster. Minnesota tested the waters on some more prominent trade deadline names, but the cost was too high, and the team decided to stand pat. Additions: Floro Subtractions: López Grade: C. There were moves that could have better prepared the team for playoff success. 2022 Trade Deadline: Minnesota Twins fans will have a tough time forgetting the 2022 trade deadline, but it was this front office being as aggressive as possible. On the day of the trade deadline, the Twins made four deals to bring in starting pitcher Tyler Mahle, relievers Jorge López and Michael Fulmer, and backup catcher Sandy León. It cost the Twins eight prospects, including some prospects who have already started to provide big-league value. It didn’t work out, with the Twins finishing six games below .500 and the Mahle and López deals aging poorly. Additions: Mahle, López, Fulmer, León Subtractions: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, Juan Rojas, Juan Nunez, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ian Hamilton Grade: F. These moves didn’t help the Twins to win in 2022 and hurt the team’s long-term outlook. 2020 Trade Deadline: The 2020 trade deadline was pushed back to the end of August because of the shortened season. Minnesota sat five games above .500 and in third place in the AL Central. During that season, the playoffs were expanded, so the team was still a lock to make the playoffs. Falvey and Levine decided against making any additions, which was warranted because of the strange nature of that season. Grade: N/A. Adding a new player who must travel and quarantine before joining the group seems like a mess. 2019 Trade Deadline: The Bomba Squad was making waves prior to the trade deadline, so the front office wanted to supplement a strong offensive lineup. Sergio Romo was a perfect addition to the team as he helped bolster the bullpen. In 27 games, he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. The front office liked him so much that they re-signed him for the 2020 season. Sam Dyson was the complete opposite of Romo. He pitched poorly after the deal, with a 7.15 ERA in 11 appearances. It was later revealed that he had been dealing with a shoulder injury since earlier in the season. He was shut down in September and had off-season surgery. Eventually, MLB suspended him for allegedly abusing his girlfriend. Additions: Romo, Vallimont, Dyson Subtractions: Lewin Diaz, Jaylin Davis, Perlander Berroa, Kai-Wei Tang Grade: C. The Romo trade was an A, and the Dyson trade was an F. Overall, the Romo trade is the lone deal that worked out in favor of the club. Mahle and López were aggressive acquisitions because the front office believed in the roster and wanted to push their chips to the middle. Unfortunately, both players pitched poorly with the Twins and didn’t help the club make an extended playoff run. Other moves have been inconsequential. The trade deadline can push a contending team over the top, but the Twins’ front office grades poorly when making deadline trades. Will the Twins payroll crunch force the front office to be creative at the trade deadline? Will they make a significant move? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s front office has received criticism for acquiring pitchers who have quickly ended up on the injured list. Does targeting a currently injured pitcher before the MLB trade deadline make sense? Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota’s front office has received criticism for acquiring pitchers who have quickly ended up on the injured list. Does targeting a currently injured pitcher before the MLB trade deadline make sense? Injuries are part of the baseball landscape, especially for pitchers who continue to push the limits of how hard pitches can be thrown while increasing spin rates. Minnesota’s current front office has tended to trade for injured pitchers or injury-prone players who lived up to that reputation immediately after arriving. Anthony DeSclafani (0 appearances), Sam Dyson (12 appearances), Chris Paddack (five appearances), and Tyler Mahle (9 appearances) all were limited after being acquired by the current regime. It’s time for the front office to double down and find another injured pitcher to add to the team for the second half. I wrote about why the Twins continue acquiring injured pitchers during spring training. Some of those reasons include increased pitching injuries across the baseball landscape and the front office's valuation of the team’s top prospects. At the trade deadline, these reasons remain true, and the names below might come at a discounted price because of their current injury situations. Blake Snell, Giants Injury: Groin Snell sustained a groin injury during his June 2 start versus the New York Yankees and was placed on the IL the next day. The reigning NL Cy Young winner had a tumultuous offseason searching for a long-term deal before signing a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants. There is an opt-out after the 2024 season. Snell has made six starts this season and allowed 25 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings. San Francisco sits below .500 and has multiple teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. Snell has expressed frustration with the Giants wanting him to rush back and help the big-league team. A change of scenery may help Snell to regain his previous form. Justin Verlander, Astros Injury: Neck Verlander went on the 15-day IL in the middle of June after trying to pitch through a neck issue. The three-time AL Cy Young winner also missed the season’s start due to inflammation in his right shoulder. In ten starts this season, he has posted a 3.95 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP, a 21.3 K%, and a 7.1 BB%. Houston struggled to start the year and has slowly crawled back to .500. The Twins, Royals, and Red Sox sit ahead of the Astros in the Wild Card standings. Houston hasn’t missed the playoff since 2016, and the team has been in the ALCS for seven consecutive years. Verlander would need to agree to a trade, and it seems unlikely for the Astros to be sellers, but a poor stretch in July might force their hand. Alex Cobb, Giants Injury: Hip, Shoulder Cobb underwent hip labrum surgery in November and has been dealing with shoulder soreness in recent weeks. He had an MRI on the shoulder, and there was no structural damage, so the Giants gave him a cortisone shot. Cobb is starting to throw live bullpens, which should put him closer to making a rehab start if everything goes as planned. He would need to get into game action and prove his splitter is back for a team to take a chance on him. That said, Cobb has a chance to be a playoff-caliber starter and might come at a lower cost than some of the other names on this list. Paul Blackburn, A’s Injury: Foot Blackburn has a stress reaction in the fifth metatarsal of his right foot and has been on the IL since mid-May. He made eight starts this season and posted a 4.11 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Over the last three seasons, he has been a mid-rotation starter with a 91 ERA+, 7.9 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. Blackburn is also intriguing because he is still arbitration-eligible next season, which means he likely comes at a higher cost. At this point, he might not be an upgrade over some of the Twins’ internal options. However, the front office values depth and acquiring Blackburn would add depth through the end of next season. The Twins acquired a playoff-caliber starter with questionable health in the form of Tyler Mahle, but fans may have PTSD because of how poorly it went for the club. At this year's deadline, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will be in the market for some of the bigger-named starting pitchers like Chicago’s Garrett Crochet and Detroit’s Jack Flaherty since they currently play on AL Central rivals. This will leave the front office searching for other options, including some of the names listed above. With injury risk, there can be reward or discontent. The Twins can hope for more positive results by acquiring one of these starting pitchers. Should the Twins trade for a pitcher with a recent injury? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s 2024 season is over half done, so it’s time to hand out some first-half hardware. Who is the team’s MVP, Top Pitcher, Rookie of the Year, and LVP? Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports MLB’s 2024 season is over half done, so it’s time to hand out some first-half hardware. Who is the team’s MVP, Top Pitcher, Rookie of the Year, and LVP? The Twins reached the halfway point of the season on Thursday with a 45-36 record. On pace for 90 wins, the Twins are ahead of last year’s 87-win pace and outpacing their pre-season projections. Minnesota started the year in a miserable 7-13 slump but has turned things around in a big way. Since the rough start, Minnesota has played at a 101-win pace while leading the American League in wins (38) and runs scored (325). It’s been a first half full of slumps and streaks, but the Twins are on pace for a playoff spot for the second straight season. First-Half MVP: Willi Castro, UTL Honorable Mentions: Carlos Correa, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan Castro has stood out above the crowd on a team with multiple former All-Stars and multi-million dollar players. Baseball-Reference ranks him second on the team in WAR, while FanGraphs has him as the team’s top player. His value has multiple layers because of his defensive flexibility. He’s joined a small club of players who have amassed 20 or more games in left field, center field, third base, and shortstop in the same season. His 133 OPS+ is 25 points higher than last season, and he’s already compiled a career-high in WAR. Correa’s hot stretch in recent weeks has put him in the MVP conversation, and Lewis is quickly moving up the list, but Castro has impacted the Twins in every facet of the game. First Half Top Pitcher: Joe Ryan, SP Honorable Mentions: Griffin Jax, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jorge Alcala Many hoped that Ryan could take the next step this season, and he has lived up to those expectations. Among the team’s pitchers, he ranks first in rWAR and fWAR. In 16 starts, Ryan has posted a 3.31 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and a 26.1 K%. Other members of the starting staff have struggled through different parts of the season, but Ryan has been a steadying presence nearly every time he takes the mound. An argument can be made that Jax is the team’s top pitcher of the first half because the rest of the bullpen has seen inconsistent performance. However, Ryan deserves the nod over other potential candidates. First Half ROY: Simeon Woods Richardson, SP Honorable Mentions: Austin Martin The Twins have only seen a handful of rookie players impact the roster meaningfully. Woods Richardson was expected to spend most of the first half in St. Paul after struggling through the 2023 campaign. Instead, Minnesota needed him to step into Louie Varland’s rotation spot, and he ran with the opportunity. In 13 starts (66 innings), SWR has posted a 3.41 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 20.5 K%. Ryan is the only pitcher with a higher rWAR and Woods Richardson ranks third according to fWAR. He made changes to his mechanics this winter, upgrading his pitch mix and making him more effective. Martin has fit an essential role with the Twins but hasn’t provided nearly as much value as Woods Richardson. First Half LVP: Christian Vázquez, C Honorable Mentions: Kyle Farmer, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Jay Jackson Minnesota’s slow start saw poor performances throughout the lineup, but many players have turned it around. Unfortunately, other players have been demoted to Triple-A to rediscover their offensive approach or see their role change at the big-league level. Vázquez has the team’s lowest WPA (-1.5), more than double the next lowest hitter (Farmer, -0.66 WPA). FanGraphs ranks him as the team’s second lowest position player according to WAR behind Kirilloff. Defensively, he continues to rank among the AL’s top catchers, and that’s one of the biggest reasons the Twins have stuck with him to this point. Who would make your ballot? Would you change any of the above award winners? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins’ current front office regime is starting to see the results of their drafting and development process. One prospect outside the team’s top-20 rankings deserves more attention in the season’s second half. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The Twins’ current front office regime is starting to see the results of their drafting and development process. One prospect outside the team’s top-20 rankings deserves more attention in the season’s second half. Andrew Morris began his college career at Colorado Mesa University, a Division II school. During his freshman season, as a 17-year-old, Morris helped his team to the championship game. He put himself on the map with a solid junior season when he posted a 2.19 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 115-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 78 innings. Texas Tech recruited him to Lubbock for his senior season, where he tossed 88 1/3 innings with the Red Raiders with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Big league teams started to notice Morris because Texas Tech had multiple draft prospects in their rotation. The Twins selected Morris in the fourth round of the 2022 MLB Draft and signed him for $500,000. After signing, he made one brief appearance with the FCL Twins, but his first extended professional action came during the 2023 campaign. Minnesota assigned him to Fort Myers, where he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition. In 48 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.59 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. He pitched into the fifth inning In seven of his 11 appearances and had two walks or fewer in each start. Morris had proven himself at Low-A, so the Twins promoted him to Cedar Rapids at the end of July. His first start for the Kernels went poorly, as he allowed four runs on ten hits in five innings. Over his next five starts (27 innings), he combined for a 2.00 ERA while holding opponents to a .663 OPS. The Kernels were heading to the playoffs, and Morris showed up with a strong pitching performance. He fanned seven while giving up one run on three hits without a walk in five frames. Cedar Rapids went on to win the championship, a first for the club since 1994. Minnesota sent Morris back to Cedar Rapids to begin the 2024 season, and he picked up right where he had left off. He allowed two runs or fewer in six of his seven starts while averaging over five innings per appearance. His last four starts proved to the Twins that he was ready to be promoted. In 24 innings, he allowed three earned runs (1.13 ERA) while holding batters to a .209/.242/.242 (.484) slash line. Morris also continued to pound the strike zone with a 71 strike % and only four walks. Moving up to Double-A can be one of the most challenging transitions in a farm system, but Morris has made it look easy. In seven games, he has a 1.41 ERA with a 4.0 BB% while touching 97 mph with his fastball. His fastball has good movement so that the pitch can be deceptive to batters. His slider hits in the upper 80s and can be used to miss bats from lefties and righties. He rounds out his pitch mix with a slow curveball and a changeup that both coax ground balls from the opposition. It’s easy to see from Morris’ delivery why he is effective on the mound. He tilts his shoulder and has an over-the-top delivery that causes some deception for batters. Morris has been known as a strike-thrower since his amateur days, and that trend has continued throughout his professional career. Some evaluators pointed to his strikeout rate as something to improve this season, and he’s met those expectations. Last season, he posted a 17.8 K% with Cedar Rapids, raising that by 10% this year. He’s continued those improvements at Double-A with a 24.0 K%. Morris is another developmental story to watch, especially as he gets closer to the big leagues. He’s made improvements since signing with the organization, including upticks with his velocity, an increase in his strikeout rate, and an improvement in his overall command. Other pitchers currently rank higher than him on the team’s prospect rankings, but a solid finish to the season will put him in the top 10. Is Morris one of the Twins’ top-20 prospects? Is he someone the club would be willing to trade before the trade deadline? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Since selecting him with the 399th overall pick three years ago, the Twins have helped David Festa develop into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. How has this 13th-round pick developed into a potential mid-rotation starter? Let’s explore his journey. Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports Since selecting him with the 399th overall pick three years ago, the Twins have helped David Festa develop into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. How has this 13th-round pick developed into a potential mid-rotation starter? Let’s explore his journey. David Festa’s baseball story started long before the Twins drafted him in 2021. Entering his senior year of high school, he had yet to be used as a pitcher, and had committed to playing shortstop at a Division-III school. His team needed an extra pitcher during a tournament, and his pitching journey began. He pitched well enough during his senior season (1.50 ERA, with 44 strikeouts in 30 innings) to decide to be a walk-on at Seton Hall University. During his freshman season there, he pitched 53 innings and posted a 4.42 ERA, with a 1.40 WHIP and 58 strikeouts. Seton Hall named him the school’s Freshman Male Athlete of the Year. His sophomore campaign started poorly (12 ER in 14 1/3 innings) before the pandemic ended the season. During his junior season, though, Festa put himself on the map, with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, including a 67-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72 innings. He had a five-game stretch where he had three complete games and was named to the All-Big East first team. Festa took part in MLB’s first Draft Combine, where teams got an extended look at him. Despite his strong junior season, Festa fell to the 13th round, where the Twins selected him and signed him for $125,000. Minnesota had him get his feet wet with four appearances between Rookie ball and Low-A. He allowed four earned runs on three hits over 8 1/3 innings, so it was a small sample size--perhaps too small to glean much information. During the 2022 season, Festa put himself on the prospect map. The Twins sent him back to Fort Myers, where he had ended the previous season. This time, he put up video-game numbers across five starts. In 24 innings, he posted a 1.50 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP and 12.4 K/9. On May 10, he combined with Hunter McMahon and Jaylen Nowlin to throw the fifth no-hitter in Fort Myers history. In that game, Festa pitched six shutout innings with a career-high 11 strikeouts. The bulk of his innings that season came in Cedar Rapids. He made 16 appearances (79 2/3 innings) with a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 23.1 K%. Twins Daily ranked him as the team’s 13th-best prospect following the season. Festa began the 2023 season at Double-A, where he struggled with inconsistent performance through his first 11 starts. In 46 innings over that span, he allowed 26 earned runs on 47 hits, with opponents posting a .709 OPS against him. Over his next 10 games, however, he posted a 3.44 ERA, with a 48-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 34 innings. Minnesota and MLB still thought highly enough of him to send him to the MLB Futures Game as part of last year’s All-Star Week festivities. He ended the year with three appearances at Triple-A, allowing four earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. His strong end to the year established him as one of the organization’s top pitching prospects. The Twins sent Festa back to St. Paul this spring, where he is over three years younger than the average age of the competition. He started the year well, with a 2.18 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings, but the Saints limited him to fewer than four innings per start. His last eight starts have seen batters hit him harder, with a .788 OPS, including seven home runs. In 39 innings, he has posted a 57-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His .354 BABIP suggests an element of luck or insufficient defensive support may be hurting him. During the offseason, Festa added strength to his frame, which should help him hold up to the rigors of pitching for a full season. He has averaged fewer than 100 innings pitched over the last two seasons. His prospect stock has risen because the Twins have helped him to get the most out of his 6-foot-6 frame. His fastball sat in the low 90s in college, but he averaged 95 mph last season and showed the ability to get to the high 90s. His slider sits in the high 80s and has a tremendous spin rate, resulting in a 41% miss rate last season. Festa also mixes in a changeup and a curveball that help him keep batters off balance. As the Twins have continued to help him refine his mechanics, Festa has shown strong strikeout ability. One of the biggest concerns has been his walk rate, which has fluctuated throughout his professional career. In the big leagues, he will need to continue to show that his adjustments can help him succeed at baseball’s highest level, but he's already beaten the odds a couple of times to reach this point in his professional development. What stands out about Festa’s professional career? What will you be watching for during his debut? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Marco Raya has been one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects since the team selected him in the 2020 MLB Draft. So, why does the team continue to handle him like a long reliever? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Marco Raya has been one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects since the team selected him in the 2020 MLB Draft. So, why does the team continue to handle him like a long reliever? Developing starting pitching is one of the most complex and valuable jobs for a farm system. It can be one of the most significant factors that separate the perennial contenders from those looking to supplement their roster with pitching from outside the organization. The Twins hired Derek Falvey to run the team’s baseball operations department because of his track record of developing young pitching in Cleveland. Minnesota has started to see positive results on the drafting and development side with younger pitchers. The current Twins regime has shown an ability to target pitchers in the mid-to-late rounds of the MLB Draft and develop them into legitimate pitching prospects. David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Cory Lewis were each drafted in the 8th round or later, and each ranks among Twins Daily’s top 20 prospects in the organization. Marco Raya is another prospect who ranks highly among the organization’s top pitching prospects, but the way the Twins are handling him is starting to be challenging to understand. The Twins drafted Raya in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, from a Texas high school. At the time of the draft, Minnesota’s scouts praised him for his “strong mechanics” and “projectability.” Even though he is smaller in stature (listed at 6-foot-1), there was a belief that he could add more strength to his frame. The Twins have spoken highly of him since he was drafted, but it's been tough to understand his usage as a professional. Minnesota has aggressively promoted him, while also being very cautious with his workload. So, is there a method to their madness? 2022 Recap: 65 IP (3.42 IP/G) Highest Pitch Count: 79 pitches A shoulder strain kept Raya off the mound during the 2021 season, so the club was forced to wait until 2022 for him to make his professional debut. The Twins were cautious with him, and rightfully so, since he was returning from injury. He averaged fewer than 3.5 innings per game, and there were four games in which he pitched five or more innings. Still, it was hard to ignore the overall results. Raya posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 while being three years younger than the average age of the competition in the Florida State League. 2023 Recap: 62 2/3 IP (2.85 IP/G) Highest Pitch Count: 54 pitches The Twins were even more cautious with Raya In his second professional season. He never made an appearance past the fourth inning, and topped out at 54 pitches in a game. Raya began the year in Cedar Rapids, posting a 2.94 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. Minnesota also continued to be aggressive with him, by promoting him to Double-A before his 21st birthday. He struggled with the initial transition to Wichita, allowing 15 earned runs in his first 12 innings. From there, he settled in and allowed one earned run on eight hits over his last 17 innings. With Wichita, he was the Texas League’s youngest pitcher and faced older batters in 88.3% of his plate appearances last season. 2024 Recap: 37 2/3 IP (3.14 IP/G) Highest Pitch Count: 60 pitches Minnesota sent Raya back to Double-A to begin the 2024 season, which is logical, since he struggled there in 2023 and is young for the level. Raya started the season well, with a 3.38 ERA over 18 2/3 innings pitched in his first six starts. His next six starts included more struggles, with 13 earned runs allowed in 19 innings pitched (6.16 ERA). Batters have hit .261/.369/.377 against him, with 22 strikeouts and 13 walks during his six-game slide. The Twins have increased his innings pitched per game, but he has yet to pitch past the fifth inning. Raya remains an intriguing prospect, because his stuff has improved since he joined the Twins organization. In fact, Baseball Prospectus thought so highly of him that they ranked him as the 53rd-best prospect entering the 2023 season. His command has improved, as he can land all his pitches for strikes. His fastball hits the mid-90s, with movement up in the zone. His slider has elite spin rates and can be used as a put-away pitch. Raya also rounds out his repertoire with a curveball and a changeup that can give batters a different look. At some point, the Twins must take the training wheels off for Raya, to see if he can handle a starter's workload. He must prove effective when going through a lineup more than twice. Raya is on pace to make his big-league debut by 2025, but the Twins would need a long reliever ready to piggyback with him when he starts. Minnesota must take the gloves off with Raya and see what he can do with a more significant workload. The only alternative would be to convert him to a reliever, outright, which might lead to an earlier debut--but would permanently cap his value somewhat lower than that of a mid-rotation starter. Will the Twins’ approach work for Raya? Is it time for him to see a higher workload? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Big-league farm systems are full of players who get limited attention as they climb the organizational ladder. One Twins prospect fits this mold, and it's time to start talking about him. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Big-league farm systems are full of players who get limited attention as they climb the organizational ladder. One Twins prospect fits this mold, and it's time to start talking about him. Every baseball player embarks on a different journey, from their amateur days until the day they hang up their cleats for the final time. Some players are drafted in the first round and go on to have a Hall of Fame career. Other players must circumnavigate the independent leagues before an affiliated organization takes a chance on their skill set. Organizations need depth, and sometimes that depth comes from unexpected places. Payton Eeles had zero Division I offers out of high school, and decided to begin his collegiate career at Cedarville University, a small Division II school in southwest Ohio. Some discounted him because of his 5-foot-7 frame, but he has been proving doubters wrong his entire career. "It definitely is something that's given me a chip on my shoulder," said Eeles. "Out of high school, I would say that was probably the big reason why I didn't get as many looks as I felt I deserved. A lot of coaches at some universities said I was too small. And so that always played a factor in motivation for me, just kind of proving people wrong in that area. But there's a lot of guys at the big-league level I saw performing at my size. Guys like José Altuve, Dustin Pedroia and Nick Madrigal. Some of those guys that really showed me 'Hey, this is possible,' and deep inside myself, I knew I could if I really wanted to." He played his first four collegiate seasons for the Yellow Jackets, before using his final year of eligibility to play at Coastal Carolina. In 63 games, he hit .374/.500/.492, with more walks (45) than strikeouts (34). He was 23 years old at the end of his college tenure, and no affiliated teams drafted or signed him, so he began his professional career in the independent leagues. Last season, he played 39 games for the Chicago Dogs, a member of the American Association. Across 174 plate appearances, he posted a .827 OPS with 13 extra-base hits while going 13-for-15 in stolen base opportunities. His 2024 campaign began in the Atlantic League for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs. Eeles hit three home runs in six games, enough for the Twins organization to take notice. Minnesota signed him to a minor-league contract on May 7 and assigned him to the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels. Eeles began his Mighty Mussels tenure with a 10-game hitting streak, wherein he slashed .343/.457/.543 with four extra-base hits. After an 0-for-4 game, he promptly started a nine-game hitting streak with a 1.168 OPS and six extra-base hits. Overall, he hit .331 with a .965 OPS, 13 XBH, 26 RBI, 23 BB, and 13 stolen bases in just 34 games, before the Twins decided to promote him to Cedar Rapids. "He stands out as someone who comes out every day prepared," said Mighty Mussels manager Brian Meyer. "You don't have to worry about what you're going to get when you put his name in the lineup and what you're going to get out of the field. You know, he's always going to hustle. He's always going to compete." His unique baseball journey meant he was old for playing in the Florida State League. At 24 years old, Eeles was three years older than the average age of the competition at his level. Out of his 154 plate appearances, only 12 came against older pitchers, and all his extra-base hits were against younger pitchers. He will be closer to the age of the players in the Midwest League, but most of the pitchers he faces will continue to be older than him. His character has been praised at every stop on his baseball journey. Other players gravitate toward him, and that is a skill that the Twins organization values. He may never reach the big-league level, but he will help improve other players around him. His baseball journey won’t end in Cedar Rapids, so keep an eye on Eeles in the months ahead. What stands out so far about Eeles? Can he reach Double-A before the end of 2024? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Last season, the Twins had three Gold Glove finalists, but none won top honors. So, which Twins players are putting themselves in the Gold Glove conversation in 2024? Image courtesy of Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Twins had three Gold Glove finalists, but none won top honors. So, which Twins players are putting themselves in the Gold Glove conversation in 2024? Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted-ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on Jun. 9, 2024. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Bailey Ober 0.8 SDI (9th), Pablo López -0.2 SDI (20th), Chris Paddack -0.6 SDI (22nd), Joe Ryan -0.7 SDI (23rd) Ober is the lone Twins pitcher to crack the top 10, and sits 2.1 SDI points behind Los Angeles’s Griffin Canning, the AL’s league leader. He is a large man to get moving off the mound to make defensive plays, so it will be interesting to see how he fares as the season progresses. López finished in the top three in last season’s final SDI rankings, and much like his pitching performance, he’s off to a slow start this season. Overall, Minnesota’s starters don’t rank highly, but 12 other qualified pitchers rank behind Ryan in the initial standings. MVlENDRfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFkUkFnY0JBQUVBRGxFRFVBQUFCd05SQUZoWFZBSUFBbGNIQ0FVRkJBUmNDVkVB.mp4 Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vázquez 3.3 SDI (6th), Ryan Jeffers -1.0 SDI (16th) Vázquez has been one of the Twins’ worst offensive performers, but his defense continues to be strong. He’s 0.2 points away from matching his SDI total from all of 2023. Vázquez ended last season on a high note as he more than doubled his SDI total in the season’s final six weeks. There is a strong trio of catchers with more than 5.0 SDI at the top of the rankings, so Vázquez will need to play well to be in the Gold Glove conversation. Jeffers finished in the top 10 for SDI last season, but his defense is down to start the year. His pop time (71st percentile) and CS Above Average (66th percentile) have taken massive jumps this season and should help him improve the rankings. First Base (AL Ranking): Carlos Santana 2.8 SDI (2nd) Santana is only 0.1 SDI point behind Vinnie Pasquantino for the AL’s top spot. Both players are significantly ahead of other first basemen, so it might be a two-person race for the Gold Glove. His Outs Above Average (95th percentile) and Fielding Run Value (88th percentile) are also near the league's top. His bat has also come around, making it more evident that the Twins’ front office was correct in targeting him this winter. Surely, though, Santana would rate more highly, were the SDI to factor in Takes it Himself Rate. Second Base (AL Ranking): Edouard Julien -0.8 SDI (6th) Julien made significant improvements with his defense last season, moving from below average to slightly above average. However, he struggled on both sides of the ball to start this season. He sits one spot behind former Twins second baseman Jorge Polanco, and three players are behind Julien. In future updates, he will fall out of the rankings since he was demoted to Triple-A. Third Base (AL Ranking): José Miranda -2.6 SDI (10th) Royce Lewis was injured on Opening Day, opening a spot at third base for Miranda. Last season, the Twins were hesitant to play Miranda at the hot corner as he dealt with a shoulder issue. He got regular time there with Lewis on the IL, and only three players ranked lower than him, according to SDI. Miranda will get more time at first base and DH with Lewis back in the infield mix. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -0.4 SDI (11th), Willi Castro -1.3 SDI (13th) Last season, Correa was a Gold Glove finalist despite not ranking well by many defensive metrics. His plantar fasciitis likely impacted his defensive ability during the season, which was the biggest reason for the drop in his performance. Correa has previously compiled some strong SDI totals, so he’s a candidate to move up the rankings throughout the season. Castro is slightly overmatched at shortstop but was able to fill in when Correa was on the IL. Javier Báez, Bo Bichette, and Paul DeJong are the only players behind Castro in the rankings. Left Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified The Twins have seen four players start 14 or more games in left field including Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Willi Castro, and Trevor Larnach. Minnesota will likely continue to rotate players through the position, so no single player may accumulate enough innings to qualify for the SDI rankings. Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified Like left field, the Twins didn’t have anyone qualify for the rankings. However, Byron Buxton has now started 45 games in center and played over 400 innings. He should qualify for future updates, and it will be interesting to see how he fares compared to the rest of the league. His Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average are both in the 92nd percentile or higher. Buxton has a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist if he can stay healthy. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 2.3 SDI (5th) Kepler finished the 2023 season with 2.5 SDI, nearly matching that total in the first two months of the 2024 campaign. He has been known for his strong defense throughout his time with the Twins. Kyle Tucker is one spot ahead of him but is on the IL, so he won’t qualify at the next update. His arm strength ranks in the 70th percentile and his Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value are on the 83rd percentile or higher. It would be fun to see Kepler win a Gold Glove in what could be his final season in Minnesota. dk1BM0tfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZKWlUxWUVVUWNBRFZjS0JRQUFBRmRUQUZnR1ZGTUFVUVFDQmdwWEJBTUhVUXRX.mp4 Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

In recent weeks, Trevor Larnach and José Miranda have reinserted themselves into the team’s long-term plans. It can be easy to discount top prospects who struggle, but patience is required when developing big-league talent. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports In recent weeks, Trevor Larnach and José Miranda have reinserted themselves into the team’s long-term plans. It can be easy to discount top prospects who struggle, but patience is required when developing big-league talent. Every team would love for their top prospects to make a splash during their big-league debut and go on to have a 15-year Hall of Fame career. Unfortunately, multiple obstacles can hinder a player’s development throughout their professional career. Fans want players to be instant superstars, but organizations must be patient in helping players overcome obstacles put in a player’s path. Twins fans are getting an up-close-and-personal view of this playing out in the organization. Minnesota expected the trio of Edouardo Julien, Matt Wallner, and Alex Kirilloff to be contributing to the big-league roster. Instead, all three players are at Triple-A, trying to rediscover their offensive approach. Two other young hitters have seen their fair share of struggles in recent seasons, but positive signs in 2024 have them trending back in a positive direction. Trevor Larnach, OF The Twins drafted Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Oregon State University, where his powerful swing helped his team win the College World Series. It was the first time since 1969 that Minnesota selected a collegiate outfielder with their first pick in the MLB Draft. At the time, the Twins had plenty of positive things to say about him as they were drawn to him by his high exit velocities in college. "He's definitely a corner outfielder and we think he throws enough and moves enough to play right," scouting director Sean Johnson said. "This is really about an offensive player with upside and power." Previous Obstacles: Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries during his professional career, including a turf toe, a double core muscle injury, a wrist injury, and groin soreness. His time at the big-league level continued to be interrupted by injuries while mixing in some poor performance. Injuries played a part in his lackluster overall production because he attempted to play through bumps and bruises, impacting him on both sides of the ball. 2024 Recap: Historically, Larnach struggled to hit offspeed and breaking pitches which caused the Twins to demote him last season. In 2024, he is seeing fastballs less regularly (down 8%) and offspeed pitches more often (up 10%). Last year, he posted a .150 SLG against offspeed pitches and raised that to a .321 SLG so far this season. He’s also dropped his Whiff% on breaking pitches (down 21.9%) and offspeed pitches (down 7.8%). Larnach will likely never be an above-average hitter versus non-fastballs, but he’s made incremental improvements. Pitchers can’t throw him slop and retire him as easily as in previous seasons. José Miranda, INF The Twins drafted Miranda in the second round of the 2016 MLB Draft (73rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico. MLB Pipeline didn’t have him ranked among the top available prospects in the draft, but the Twins were happy with the signing at the time. "He has a really good swing," Twins scouting director Deron Johnson said. "He's aggressive. We're going to send him out as a shortstop, but realistically, he's probably a third baseman. But he's a really good player and really skilled." Previous Obstacles: Miranda was set to be a regular for the 2023 Twins before a shoulder injury in spring training slowed him down. He attempted to play through the injury and struggled to produce offensively. In 40 games, he posted a 57 OPS+ with a 15.8 K%. Defensively, the Twins couldn’t use him at third base because of his shoulder issues. Other players passed him by on the organizational depth chart, so he had much to prove for the 2024 campaign. 2024 Recap: Miranda entered play this weekend with a 124 OPS+, ten points higher than his OPS+ from his rookie season. He makes consistent contact with a Whiff% and K% in the 70th percentile or higher. There have been multiple areas of growth for him in 2024, including career-high totals in Barrel % (7.4), Barrel/PA (5.9), and Launch Angle (15.7). His base running value has also made significant jumps despite being a slower runner. During his rookie season, his base running value sat in the 34th percentile, and he’s increased that to the 72nd percentile this season. Miranda is finding ways to be an above-average regular, which adds tremendous value. Miranda and Larnach might never become All-Stars, but both have an opportunity to be above-average regulars at the big-league level. Teams need players like this to stay competitive and complete a roster. They were once viewed as top-100 prospects, and their path to regulars has seen some obstacles. Still, they are positively contributing to the 2024 Twins, and other players can follow in their footsteps. How have your expectations changed for Larnach and Miranda? Which player will have the most significant impact on the club in future years? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Driveline Baseball has helped multiple Twins players improve in recent offseasons. However, they are wrong to think Griffin Jax should shift back to a starting role. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Driveline Baseball has helped multiple Twins players improve in recent offseasons. However, they are wrong to think Griffin Jax should shift back to a starting role. Baseball is a game that is constantly evolving, with teams looking for a way to gain a slight advantage over the opposition. One trend in recent years is turning elite bullpen arms into starting pitchers. Players like Jordan Hicks, Garrett Crochet, and Michael King have made the transition during the last two seasons with varying levels of success. Many relievers, including those on the Twins, served as starters before shifting to a relief role because of performance or injury concerns. Some of the best relievers in Minnesota history were “failed starters,” including Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Shifting to a bullpen role usually allows pitchers to add velocity and limit their pitch selection to improve their ability to get outs. Previously, teams didn’t consider shifting players back to starting if they provided value out of the bullpen, because why would they fix something that isn’t broken? Former Twins pitcher Zack Littell is another example of a reliever who has shifted back to a starting role, and he thinks others will follow that same path. “I think you’re starting to see it more and more,” Littell said. “There’s some indicators like you look at the bullpen guy and he throws a lot of strikes. He punches out a good amount of guys. He doesn’t walk guys. He might give up some more hits in the bullpen, but as a starter you can kind of get away with that.” Griffin Jax is one of those “failed starters” who has found renewed life as a dominant late-inning arm. Earlier this week, Driveline Baseball posted a video from Chris Langin, their Director of Pitching, explaining why Jax should be the next reliever to jump from reliever to starting pitcher. To get a complete picture of Jax, it’s essential to look back at his time as a starting pitcher and see how he has developed during his bullpen tenure. Jax spent most of his minor league career as a starter in the Twins farm system. He made 56 minor league appearances, and 50 came in a starting role. He posted a 3.24 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 6.8 K/9. His results as a starter at the big-league level were less successful. In 14 games, he allowed 47 earned runs on 68 hits in 69 1/3 innings. Jax struggled to get swings and misses as his K/9 dropped to 7.0, and batters posted a .842 OPS against him. His stuff wasn’t working as a starter, so the team moved him to the bullpen. Jax has traits that are different compared to other relievers. Many bullpen arms focus on throwing two or three pitches in relief, but Jax has continued using a starter's repertoire with a four-pitch mix. His sweeper is his most regularly used pitch (41%), so he’d likely need to increase his fastball usage (27%) if he moved back to the rotation. In 2024, his fastball has allowed a .171 SLG, but the xSLG is .400, which is a sign that he might be getting lucky. His increased velocity in the bullpen is a sign of some mechanical adjustments, but there is no guarantee that he would sustain these changes with a starter’s workload. Moving Jax to a starting role can’t happen in the middle of the season, so this is likely something he would need to prepare for in the offseason. Looking ahead to next season, every current member of the Twins starting rotation will still be under contract. There is also organizational depth, such as Louie Varland, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya. Injuries can always impact a team’s depth, but the Twins seem to have more than enough starters for 2025. For now, Jax can concentrate on being one of the game’s best relievers and not worry about switching back to a starting role. Should the Twins consider making Jax a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Fans across the baseball landscape remember Willie Mays as the greatest baseball player ever after his sudden passing earlier this week. His baseball journey had multiple stops, one of which was a brief stint with the Minneapolis Millers. Image courtesy of © Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports Fans across the baseball landscape remember Willie Mays as the greatest baseball player ever after his sudden passing earlier this week. His baseball journey had multiple stops, one of which was a brief stint with the Minneapolis Millers. The Minneapolis Millers were a charter member of the American Association in 1902 and were purchased by the New York Giants in 1946. Twin Cities baseball fans would have to wait until the 1960s for a major league team, so the Millers offered a chance to witness greatness. Willie Mays had been playing professionally since he was a teenager, with a stint on the Birmingham Black Barons of the Negro American League. In 13 games, he went 6-for-43 (.233 BA) with three extra-base hits. After graduating high school, he signed with the Giants and played his first professional season in the Class B Interstate League. His tenure with the Millers began in 1951. Fact 1: The Giants had two Triple-A teams, so it wasn’t guaranteed that Mays would play in Minneapolis. New York’s other Triple-A team played in Ottawa but the field and facilities were sub-par. Mays was considered a top prospect, so sending him to Minneapolis made sense. Fact 2: Mays helped the Millers win 13-of-19 spring training games by dominating at the plate. He posted a .408 batting average with five home runs and 29 RBI. He seemed more than ready to help the team when the regular season began. Fact 3: The Millers started the season with 13 road games to avoid some of the cold spring weather in Minneapolis. Mays posted a .352 batting average on the road trip, making Minneapolis fans even more excited about seeing him in person. Fact 4: Mays’ defense would become legendary at the big-league level including his famous catch in the World Series. There were already signs of his strong defense with the Millers. The Minneapolis Tribune wrote, “His throwing for power has lived up to reputation. … His throws are not ‘arches.’ Rather, they are power-laden, even when he throws to put the ball into the hands of a receiver on the ground.” They couldn’t have been more accurate in their scouting report of Mays. Fact 5: Halsey Hall wrote about Mays as the Millers prepared for their home opener. He had a simple statement that would stand the test of time. “We think you’ll like Willie.” For generations of baseball fans, this was a mantra to live by. Fact 6: Mays lived and played in Minneapolis before the Civil Rights Movement, so that meant he lived in an area called “one of the centers of black life in the Twin Cities in the 1950s.” He rented a room at 3616 4th Ave, which was close enough to walk to Nicollet Park, home of the Millers. Fact 7: Over 6,000 fans attended the Millers' home opener despite rainy conditions to get a first-hand view of Mays. The game was halted in the seventh inning but not before the star outfielder collected three hits and made tremendous defensive plays. Fact 8: During the homestand, Mays made “one of the greatest catches you will ever see.” He tracked down a line drive hit to the way and leaped to make the catch. Mays doubled off the runner at second base to finish the incredible play. The batter put his head down, assumed he got a double and didn’t believe the umpire when he was told that the ball had been caught. Fact 9: Poor weather in the early part of the season meant few Minneapolis residents attended Millers games. The team played at home for a three-week stretch and averaged fewer than 2,700 fans per game. Many hoped to watch Mays when the weather warmed up, but the Giants had other plans. Fact 10: Mays dominated during his time in a Millers uniform. In 35 games, he slashed .477/.524/.799 (1.323) with 20 doubles, eight triples, and four home runs. Mays also had more walks (42) than strikeouts (34). On May 24, New York decided it was time for their young phenom to get the call. Bonus Fact: Some fans were upset that Mays left before they could see him in person. Giants President Horace Stoneham released a quarter-page ad in the Sunday edition of the Minneapolis Tribune to explain the decision. “We appreciate his worth to the Millers, but in all fairness Mays himself must be a factor in these considerations. Merit must be recognized. … Mays is entitled to his promotion, and the chance to prove that he can play major league baseball.” Mays was more than ready to play major league baseball even with some early struggles. His big-league career has been well documented and relived in recent days so there is no need to rehash those accolades. However, his career as one of baseball’s giants can be traced back to Nicollet Park in Minneapolis, even if not many people were there to see it. Who do you view as the greatest baseball player of all time? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article