Cody Christie

Minnesota failed to win any Gold Gloves this season, but there were plenty of improved defensive performances. A respected fielding metric from SABR helps illustrate the team's surprising proficiency with the glove. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric developed by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is called the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, MLB has used SDI as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final rankings for the 2022 campaign. Pitcher (AL Ranking): No Twins Pitchers Qualify Minnesota needed pitchers to throw more innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. Former Twin Jose Berrios has been known for his athletic ability, which helps him to field his position. He finished tied for fifth in the AL. According to SDI, Cleveland's Shane Bieber ranked as the best fielder, and he won the Gold Glove. Catcher (AL Ranking): Gary Sanchez 0.6 SDI (12th) Sanchez took over the full-time catching duties after Ryan Jeffers broke his thumb. Minnesota worked hard with Sanchez to improve his receiving this year. Last season, he ranked as the AL's worst catcher with a -8.2 SDI, and there are four players worse than him in 2022. Jeffers' last posted SDI total was 2.0, but his injury meant he didn't have enough innings to be on the leaderboard. First Base (AL Ranking): Luis Arraez 2.1 SDI (1st) Arraez was a Gold Glove finalist at first base and led the league in SDI. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.was awarded the Gold Glove even though his SDI total was 1.9 points lower than Arraez. In the second half, Arraez moved from a -0.5 SDI to the league's best total while also playing through injury. It was a terrific defensive season for a player with limited first-base experience entering the 2022 campaign. Second Base (AL Ranking): Jorge Polanco -2.7 SDI (13th) Polanco gained rave reviews during his first season at second base in 2021, but the 2022 season was a different story. Only three qualified second basemen finished with a lower SDI. Polanco dealt with injuries during the season, which likely hindered his defensive performance. Minnesota can hope that Polanco is healthier in 2023 and can move back up the SDI leaderboard. Third Base (AL Ranking): Gio Urshela 0.8 SDI (T-5th) Urshela's defense was one of the most significant in-season improvements for the Twins. At the season's midway point, only one AL third baseman ranked lower than Urshela. He shot up the rankings in the second half and finished tied for fifth with Houston's Alex Bregman. Former Twin Josh Donaldson finished second among the AL's third basemen with a 7.3 SDI. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 1.6 SDI (9th) Correa was a Gold Glove finalist, but his SDI ranking was a roller coaster throughout the season. His early season defensive numbers were disappointing, but he slowly climbed the SDI leaderboard and ranked in the AL's top-five shortstops at the end of August. His bat was terrific in September, but he posted a negative SDI and dropped four spots in the rankings. Houston's Jeremy Pena, Correa's replacement, became the first rookie shortstop to win the Gold Glove. Left Field (AL Ranking): Nick Gordon 0.1 SDI (5th) Gordon surprised the Twins in multiple ways this season on his way to becoming the team's most-improved player. He'd played infield for most of his professional career, but Minnesota needed him as an outfielder. According to SDI, he finished the year in the top 5 among AL left fielders, which is a testament to his athletic ability. Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified Byron Buxton missed time at the season's end and started nearly 37% of his games as a designated hitter. When healthy, he is among baseball's best defensive outfielders. The AL Central had arguably the league's best centerfield defenders, with Cleveland's Myles Straw and Kansas City's Michael A. Taylor finishing 1-2 in the SDI rankings. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 6.3 SDI (2nd) Like Correa and Arreaz, Kepler was a Gold Glove finalist. Kepler slowly increased his SDI rankings throughout the season but needed more to catch Houston's Kyle Tucker. In the final rankings, Kepler was 0.8 SDI points behind Tucker, who was awarded the Gold Glove. Kepler's defense has become his calling card. Will the Twins look to trade him this winter? Which rankings above surprise you the most? Did Arraez get robbed of a Gold Glove? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota went all-in on Ryan Jeffers being the team’s top catcher for the 2022 season. Will any of these prospects join him at the big-league level in 2023? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Last winter, the Twins traded from a position of strength (catcher) for a position of need (shortstop). Ryan Jeffers was handed the keys as the team’s top catcher while the team traded Mitch Garver to the Rangers. Jeffers posted an 86 OPS+, but he was limited to 67 games due to a broken thumb. Following the World Series, Gary Sanchez and Sandy Leon will become free agents, so the Twins need someone else to join Jeffers at the big-league level. Could there be an internal option? Triple-A: Andrew Bechtold (ETA: 2023), David Banuelos (ETA: 2023) Bechtold is an intriguing prospect because of his defensive flexibility. During the 2022 season, he played over 390 innings at catcher and third base. Offensively, he hit .233/.329/.400 (.728) with 16 doubles and 19 home runs in 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He is Rule 5 eligible, so the Twins will need to add him to the 40-man roster to avoid the risk of losing him. Banuelos is in his fifth professional season and has played 85 games at Triple-A over the last two seasons. Minnesota acquired him in 2017 for $1 million in international bonus pool money. Defense is his calling card, as he has a .653 OPS in 85 Triple-A games. Like Bechtold, he is Rule 5 eligible, so the Twins need to add him to the 40-man roster before December’s draft. Double-A: Alex Isola (ETA: 2024), Kyle Schmidt (ETA: 2024) Minnesota took Isola in the 29th round of the 2019 MLB Draft, and he has consistently risen through the Twins system since then. In 2022, he was limited to 61 games as he split time between first base and catcher. With Wichita, he hit .286/.377/.471 (.848) with nine doubles and ten home runs. Minnesota sent him to the AFL to recoup some of his missing time this season, but he has seen limited catching innings. Schmidt was a 33rd-round pick in 2019, but his college experience helped him move through three levels for the second consecutive season. He caught over 260 innings in 2022 and made 15 starts at first base. In 56 games, he hit .207/.270/.306 (.576) with four doubles and five home runs. He never played more than 30 games at any level, so it will be interesting to see if the Twins let him get comfortable at one level in 2023. High-A: Pat Winkel (ETA: 2025), Andrew Cossetti (ETA: 2025) Even with college experience, Winkel was younger than the average age of the competition at his level for the second consecutive season. In his second professional season, he got on base over 33% of the time and combined for 15 extra-base hits in 54 games. All his defensive appearances came behind the plate, where he caught nearly 390 innings. He posted an .858 OPS in college, so the Twins hope to see more of that hitter in the future. Cossetti is an intriguing name from the 2022 draft class. Minnesota took Cossetti in the 11th round of the 2022 MLB Draft from St. Joseph's University. After signing, he was limited to one appearance with the FCL Twins. It seems likely for him to get plenty of catching time in Cedar Rapids next season because of his college experience. Low-A: Noah Cardenas (ETA: 2025), Dillon Tatum (ETA: 2025), Nate Baez (ETA: 2026), Ricardo Olivar (ETA: 2026) Cardenas made his full-season debut in 2022 after being drafted in 2021. He played in 99 games for Fort Myers, where he hit .261/.421/.413 (.834) with 18 doubles and nine home runs. He walked (73 BB) more than he struck out (70 K), and caught over 460 innings. Throughout his college and professional career, he has shown a keen eye at the plate, which helps him get into favorable counts where his power can be utilized. Tatum spent most of 2022 in Fort Myers but got a brief taste of Double-A due to a catching need late in the season. He hit .177/.321/.300 (.621) with 15 extra-base hits in 74 games. As he moves up, he needs to make regular contact and cut back on his strikeout totals (93 K in 74 games). He is strong defensively behind the plate and caught two no-hitters this season, but there is always room for players of his ilk in an organization. Baez was a 12th-round pick in 2022 and only appeared in 19 games after signing with the Twins. In his final collegiate season, he posted a .965 OPS, so it will be interesting to see if his bat develops in the Twins’ system. Olivar played most of last season with FCL Twins, where he hit .349/.442/.605 (1.046) with 12 doubles, three triples, and five home runs. He can play catcher, second base, and all three outfield positions. His bat is good enough that the team tries to fit him in the line-up as much as possible. Catching depth is something to watch in any organization. The Twins have drafted multiple college catchers in recent years to add to that depth, but only some of those catchers offer a lot of upside. There are some very intriguing bats in the names mentioned above, and many catchers have some defensive flexibility which could prove valuable. However, none of the catching options look ready to fill a full-time role at the big-league level. Will the Twins turn to any of these options in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins traded away multiple prospects at the trade deadline. Will Austin Martin be the next prospect dealt? Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? Austin Martin entered his first full season in the Twins organization as a consensus top-55 prospect. His season started slowly as he hit .250/.379/.315 (.694) through his first 62 games. He sustained a wrist injury while diving for a ball at the beginning of July. Martin didn't need surgery, but he was sidelined for six weeks. He finally broke out at the plate in September by hitting .268/.405/.423 (.827) with five doubles and two home runs in 19 games. Minnesota looked for Martin to continue his strong September by sending him to the Arizona Fall League. He won AFL Player of the Week honors (October 10-15) after going 11-for-18 (.611 BA) with two doubles, a home run, a walk, and two stolen bases. In 16 AFL games, he has a .908 OPS, and he has gone 8-for-9 in stolen base attempts. Why is He a Trade Candidate? One of the Twins' most significant needs this winter is at shortstop, so it might seem counterproductive to trade away a shortstop prospect. However, there are no guarantees that Martin will be a shortstop at the big-league level. Evaluators have questioned Martin's future defensive position since he was drafted, but the Twins continue to use him almost exclusively at shortstop. Minnesota's farm system has dropped in national rankings especially following this year's trade deadline. If the Twins want to make a trade this winter, Martin may need to be included as part of any package for a big-time talent. What is His Trade Value? Martin has dropped on national prospect lists, but his recent performance highlights his value as a future big leaguer. When the Twins acquired Martin, he was packaged with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios. The Twins would need to package Martin with at least one other prospect to acquire a big-league player that can impact the 2023 roster. He might provide more value as depth to the Twins farm system than as a trade piece this winter. Minnesota has multiple top prospects that currently play shortstop, like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and Noah Miller. If the organization has faith in those players, Martin might not fit into the team's long-term plans, which makes him a potential trade candidate. His value dropped this season, so the team might be more likely to keep him until the trade deadline when the 2023 Twins have shown whether or not they are contenders. Do you think the Twins will trade Martin? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES Gio Urshela Emilio Pagan Max Kepler Jorge Polanco View full article

Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez had terrific offensive seasons. Now, MLB is recognizing their tremendous prowess at the plate. How do they stack up in the competition for the 2022 Silver Slugger awards? Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports On Thursday, MLB named the finalist for the Rawlings Silver Slugger Awards, which honors the top offensive players at each position. The winners are scheduled to be announced on Thursday, November 10th. While the BBWAA votes for many end-of-season awards, MLB managers and coaches select the finalists. Rocco Baldelli and three other Twins coaches served as the team's voting members this season. According to MLB.com, "MLB managers and coaches vote for the Silver Sluggers, which go to one player apiece in each league at catcher, DH, and each infield position, plus three outfielders. Like the Gold Glove Awards, the Silver Sluggers also added a utility category in 2022." Carlos Correa was named an AL shortstop finalist, and Luis Arraez finished in the top 3 at the utility spot. Both players face a challenging field, so let's see if either has a shot at the award. Correa is one of four AL shortstop finalists, along with Bo Bichette, Xander Bogaerts, and Corey Seager. According to fWAR, Bogaerts accumulated 8.7 more offensive runs above average than the other top-four shortstops. Correa played over 13 games fewer than the other candidates but ranked as the best AL shortstop in wRC+. Bichette had the most hits in the AL, and Seager hit over 30 home runs in his first AL season. Only Bichette ranked higher than Correa in Win Probability Added among the finalists. Correa's slow start and games missed likely means he finishes behind the other candidates. Arraez faces a competitive field in the utility spot because two of his competitors are finalists at other positions. Shohei Ohtani is a former Silver Slugger winner at DH and is in the conversation for AL MVP. He is a Silver Slugger finalist at DH and utility. DJ LeMahieu has two Silver Sluggers at second base while being a finalist at that spot again this season. Arraez will get consideration for this award since he won the AL batting title and kept Aaron Judge from winning the Triple Crown. Ohtani had better offensive numbers than Arraez, but it's hard to know if coaches viewed him as a utility player. During the 2022 season, he didn't play an inning at any defensive position other than pitcher. Arraez made defensive starts at first base, second base, and third base, which helped his case to be considered a utility player. There is no precedent for voting history at this position since the utility spot is new for 2022. Minnesota is looking for its first Silver Slugger winner since Nelson Cruz (DH) took home the award in 2020. Back in 2019, Mitch Garver (Catcher) and Cruz (DH) won the honors as part of the Bomba Squad team. Before that, the Twins hadn't won a Silver Slugger since Joe Mauer in 2013. Congratulations to Arraez and Correa on their nomination. Just eight days ago, Arraez and Correa, along with Max Kepler were named nominees for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award. Do you think Correa or Arraez will win the Silver Slugger? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Outside of Jose Berrios, the Twins have failed to develop top-of-the-rotation starters over the last decade or more. So, do the Twins currently have any prospects on the path to becoming an ace? Image courtesy of William Parmeter, Fort Myers Miracle Defining what constitutes an ace is something fans have debated throughout baseball history. Some might view it as baseball's top 10-15 pitchers, while others might characterize it as the top pitcher for each team. As Nick wrote about earlier this week, Sonny Gray currently represents the top of Minnesota's rotational threshold, and some might not call him an ace. He is the team's best starting pitcher, and an off-season acquisition should be better or equal to him. So, does Minnesota currently have a pitcher in the system with ace potential? It could be easy to look at the Twins' prospect rankings and gauge ace potential by those rankings. However, pitching prospect development rarely follows a linear path. At this point last season, Simeon Woods Richardson saw his stock drop as he struggled at Double-A. Now, he is back on the prospect radar and has the potential to be an ace. Below there are five candidates that have varying levels of ace potential. Connor Prielipp, LHP Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 4th ETA: 2025 Ace Potential: High Prielipp has the best chance to be an ace out of all the pitchers in the Twins organization. Minnesota was lucky to have him fall to them with the 48th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. His fastball and slider are both MLB-ready pitches, and his changeup also projects to be above average. The Twins were confident enough in his pre-draft workouts to go over slot value to sign him. Minnesota will work him back slowly in 2023, but he has all the traits necessary to be an ace pitcher. (Click here for more Connor Prielipp articles at Twins Daily.) Marco Raya, RHP Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 9th ETA: 2024 Ace Potential: Medium Raya made his organizational debut in 2022 as a 19-year-old in the Florida State League. He impressed with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 65 innings. Over 82% of his at-bats came against older batters, which he held to a .571 OPS. According to MLB.com, he has four pitches that grade at 50 or higher on the 20-80 scouting scale. The biggest thing holding him back from being an ace is his size, as he is six feet tall and weighs around 165-pounds. Players like Jose Berrios and Marcus Stroman have shown ace potential while being his size, so there is plenty of hope for him to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. (Click here for more Marco Raya articles at Twins Daily.) Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 5th ETA: 2022 Ace Potential: Medium Woods Richardson has the best potential to be an ace pitcher out of the prospects in the mix for 2023. He turned 22 in September, and he already made his big-league debut. Woods Richardson struggled mightily during the 2021 season but bounced back nicely in 2022. He posted a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with a 115-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 107 1/3 minor league innings. He likely starts next season at Triple-A, where he only made seven starts this season. His age, pitch mix, and prospect status give him a shot at becoming an ace. (Click here for more Simeon Woods Richardson articles at Twins Daily.) Louie Varland, RHP Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 7th ETA: 2022 Ace Potential: Low Varland has been named the Twins' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in back-to-back seasons. For most organizations, a pitcher winning that award multiple times would point to ace potential. However, it might also result from other pitchers in the organization not performing well. Varland dominated the upper minors on the way to making an impressive debut at Yankee Stadium. He has three above-average pitches, which can help him fit into the Twins' rotation for multiple years. It still seems unlikely for him to ever be considered the best pitcher in a rotation, even if he reaches his ceiling. (Click here for more Louie Varland articles at Twins Daily.) Matt Canterino, RHP Current Twins Daily Prospect Ranking: 14th ETA: 2024 Ace Potential: Low Canterino's potential has been hard to project throughout his professional career because he hasn't stayed healthy. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August, so he will likely miss most, if not all, of the 2023 season. Minnesota hopes this surgery can get Canterino back on track, as he was one of the team's top pitching prospects entering the season. When on the mound, Canterino has dominated with a true four-pitch mix and a fastball in the upper-90s. He arguably has the best stuff in the system, so his ace potential is tied to his ability to stay healthy, and remaining a starter. (Click here for more Matt Canterino articles at Twins Daily.) Who do you think has the best chance to be an ace? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jorge Polanco was part of the same international signing class as Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. Will all three be out of the Twins lineup entering 2023? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? Jorge Polanco has been one of the Twins' most valuable players recently. Since the start of 2019, Polanco has produced the team's second-most WAR behind Byron Buxton. The 2022 season saw Polanco miss significant time for the first time since 2018. He tried to play through a left knee injury, but his performance was still above average. In 104 games, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+. One area significantly impacted by his injury was his defensive performance. He ranked in the 4th percentile according to Outs Above Average, and only three AL second basemen ranked lower than him in SDI. Like many Twins, injuries prevented him from having an even better season. Why is He a Trade Candidate? There are multiple directions the Twins can go with lineup construction for the 2023 campaign. Luis Arraez and Nick Gordon can get more regular playing time at second base, or the Twins can look into the minors to fill the spot. Austin Martin and Edouard Julien are on pace to debut in 2023, especially with standout performances in the AFL. Martin is building off a strong September, while Julien has been an on-base machine. Both of these prospects have a chance to be the team's second baseman of the future, so the Twins may be willing to open the position for a younger player. What is His Trade Value? Polanco is under team control for the next three seasons, which makes him one of the team's most valuable trade assets. He is under contract for $7.5 million in 2023, and he has a $10.5 million option for 2024 and a $12 million option for 2025. While missing time this season, FanGraphs pegged Polanco's value as $14.6 million. In 2021, he was worth over $33 million; in 2018, he was worth over $26 million. Polanco has significantly outperformed his contract, which might make other teams willing to trade for the second baseman. The current offseason might not be the optimal time to deal Polanco, but the front office needs to add some higher-level starting pitching options. Other prospects might not be ready until the second half, and the team might not want to hand over second base to Arraez or Gordon. Can Polanco be used to acquire starting pitchers that are MLB-ready? Do you think the Twins will trade Polanco? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES Gio Urshela Emilio Pagan Max Kepler View full article

Derek Falvey was touted for his pitching pipeline in Cleveland. Can the Twins start seeing results from their own pitching pipeline? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints At the onset of the 2022 season, Minnesota's front office put a vote of confidence in the pitching pipeline by not signing a frontline starting pitcher. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the team's two free-agent acquisitions, and neither performed exceptionally well. Unfortunately, Minnesota's pitching pipeline also struggled, but signs point to a potential turnaround in 2023. Here are how the team's top pitching prospects performed in 2022. Triple-A: Jordan Balazovic (ETA: 2023), Simeon Woods Richardson (ETA: 2022), Louie Varland (ETA: 2022), Ronny Henriquez (ETA: 2022) Woods Richardson and Varland are the two highlights of this group, as they both started the year at Double-A and finished it in the Twins rotation. By many accounts, Woods Richardson is still considered the better prospect, but Varland has now won back-to-back awards as the organization's minor league pitcher of the year. Woods Richardson posted a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP across 23 appearances. Varland made 24 appearances with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Next year, both arms project to start in the Saints rotation, but they will be needed at the big-league level at some point in 2023. The Twins acquired Henriquez as part of the Mitch Garver trade with Texas. He is an intriguing prospect to watch as the club must decide at some point in the future if he is a starter or reliever moving forward. Henriquez made his big-league debut in 2022 as a reliever, but the organization will likely allow him to start again in 2023. As a 22-year-old, he was very young for Triple-A and posted a 5.66 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in 95 1/3 innings. Henriquez wasn't the only prospect to see a poor performance at Triple-A. Balazovic struggled to start 2022, but he finished the season on a positive note. Entering the 2022 season, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had him in their top-100 prospects. In 23 appearances, Balazovic had a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He has been one of the team's top pitching prospects for multiple seasons, and his development is key to the organization's pitching pipeline. Henriquez and Balazovic should be at Triple-A to start 2023. Double-A: Blayne Enlow (ETA: 2023), Brent Headrick (ETA: 2024) Minnesota added Enlow to the 40-man roster last winter even though he was expected to miss most of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. Enlow was used as a starter and reliever and posted a 4.73 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP in 59 innings. It will be interesting to see if he sticks on the 40-man roster because the Twins have a lot of clean-up this winter. He will likely need to start 2022 at Double-A because he is continuing to build up his arm strength following surgery. Varland has received most of the attention, but Headrick was in the same draft class and has performed well. He split time between High-A and Double-A with a 3.32 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP in 108 innings. He struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and his strikeout numbers improved after being promoted to Double-A. Headrick will start next season at Double-A, but he will have the opportunity to move to Triple-A in the second half. High-A: David Festa (ETA: 2024), Sean Mooney (ETA: 2024), Jaylen Nowlin (ETA: 2024) The Twins took Festa in the 13th round in 2019, but he has seen his prospect stock rise since that point. In 2022, he made starts at Low- and High-A with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He dominated in Fort Myers with a 12.4 K/9, but that total dipped to 8.5 K/9 after his promotion. Festa was a little young for the Midwest League, so he can start 2023 at that level before moving up the organizational ladder. Mooney is an intriguing pitching prospect, averaging 13.5 K/9 during his first two professional seasons. Unfortunately, injuries have been part of his career which has limited him to just over 100 innings pitched since 2021. Since he turns 25 in January, the team may need to push him to Double-A during the 2023 season. Nowlin was a 19th round pick in 2021 and he made it all the way to High-A last in 2022. He posted video-game strikeout numbers in his first full season with 14.1 K/9 in 71 innings. He throws hard and is left-handed, which may help his prospect status entering 2023. He only made three starts at High-A to end 2022, so he likely starts next season in Cedar Rapids. Low-A: Marco Raya (ERA: 2025) In recent memory, Raya is one of the Twins' most exciting pitching prospects. He missed most of 2021 with a shoulder strain, so the 2022 season marked his professional debut. In 19 games (65 innings), he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a 76-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He will be 20 years old for most of the 2023 season, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Twins are with his promotions. It seems likely for the club to keep him in Fort Myers for the cold months to start the year and promote him to Cedar Rapids later in the year. The names above are just some of the organization's starting pitching options in the years ahead. Connor Prielipp, a 2022 second-round pick, is arguably the Twins' best pitching prospect, and he has yet to make a professional appearance. Matt Canterino has been dominant on the mound, but health was an issue, and now he will miss 2023 following Tommy John surgery. Brayan Medina is a name to watch in the rookie leagues, as MLB.com already ranks him as the team's 17th-best prospect. This group needs to start producing if Falvey wants to recreate Cleveland's pitching success. Will the Twins' pitching pipeline emerge in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Max Kepler is one of the longest-tenured Twins, but his time may be running out. With other young outfielders, will Minnesota look to trade Kepler? Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? For the second consecutive season, Max Kepler posted a below-average OPS+. It's looking more like the 2019 campaign was a mirage regarding Kepler's offensive production. His average exit velocity, Hard Hit % and Barrel % all ranked in the 51st percentile or lower last season. While those numbers are disheartening, he does have good control of the strike zone as he ranks in the 78th percentile or higher in K%, BB%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. Most of his value comes on the defensive side of the ball, where he ranked in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. In 2022, SABR's Defensive Index ranks Kepler as the second-best AL right fielder, which has him on pace to be a Gold Glove finalist. Why is He a Trade Candidate? Minnesota's outfield is quickly filling up with other younger outfield options that offer more long-term upside than Kepler. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner have emerged over the last three seasons and are entering the prime of their careers. There are no guarantees with any of these players, especially with Kirilloff and Larnach returning from injuries. Austin Martin is another prospect to consider in the outfield picture with an outstanding AFL performance. Other players like Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino will also get some opportunities in corner outfield spots. With all of these names, it's easy to see why Kepler can be expendable. What is His Trade Value? Kepler is scheduled to make $8.5 million next season, but his contract can run through the 2024 season. The Twins hold a $10 million option for 2024 with a $1 million buyout. Fans who have been frustrated by Kepler's offensive performance might not realize how valuable his defense has been in recent years. Over the last two seasons, FanGraphs pegs Kepler's value at $34.4 million while the team paid him $13.25 million. He is an above-average big-league player with multiple years of team control on a team-friendly deal, which has significant trade value. A contending team may look at Kepler as one of the last pieces to help their club take the next step. Minnesota isn't forced to trade Kepler, but this front office has touted its creativity regarding roster creation. With younger options emerging, it might be the perfect time to trade Kepler. The team might be able to acquire a pitcher to help next year's roster, or the club can add to a minor league system that has recently dropped in national rankings. To keep the team's winning window open, it's critical to move on from veteran players at the right time. The time might be suitable to capitalize on a Kepler trade. Do you think the Twins will trade Kepler? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES -Gio Urshela -Emilio Pagan View full article

Edouard Julien has been an on-base machine over the last two years. Now on the cusp of the big leagues, can he take the next step in 2023? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Not many teams hit on an 18th-round draft pick, but the Twins may have found a sleeper in the 2019 MLB Draft. He was a draft-eligible sophomore because MLB ruled his secondary school year in Canada counted as a college season. During his final amateur season, he posted an .841 OPS with 14 doubles and ten home runs in 65 games. Minnesota took Edouard Julien with the 539th overall pick and went way over slot to sign him for $493,000. Julien's pro debut had to wait until 2021 because of the shutdown, but he quickly made his mark on the Twins system. He split time between Low-A and High-A while hitting .267/.434/.480 (.914) with 28 doubles, 18 home runs, and 34 steals in 112 games. His 110 walks led all of the minor leagues, but he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances. He was roughly the same age as the competition at his level, so there was some concern with his lack of consistent contact and high strikeout totals. Luckily, he remedied some of those issues in 2022. Minnesota sent Julien to Double-A for the entire 2022 season, and he hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His .441 OBP ranked fifth in the minor leagues. He reduced his aggressiveness, allowing him to make more consistent contact. He also struck out in 24.6% of his plate appearances after striking out in 28% of his plate appearances in 2021. He can drive the ball to all fields with plenty of power. Julien was also over a year younger than the average age of the competition Double-A, so he faced older pitchers in 87% of his at-bats. There were positive signs, and Minnesota wanted him to continue to develop in the 2022 AFL. Julien is an on-base machine, and that trend has continued in limited AFL action. He drew ten walks in his first seven games compared to eight strikeouts. Offensively, he has gone 7-for-23 with six runs scored, a double, and a stolen base. All his defensive innings have come at second base in the AFL, and that's another area for him to improve as he gets closer to the big-league level. During his professional career, the Twins have used Julien at multiple defensive positions, including first base, second base, third base, and left field. Over 70% of his defensive innings have come at second base because his arm typically rates below average. He likely won't be an above-average defender at any defensive position, but he can continue to improve at second base. The Twins have developed Julien from a late-round pick into one of the team's top-15 prospects. If he continues on his current path, there is a chance he will make his big-league debut in 2023. He has inserted himself into the team's long-term plans and will be an exciting prospect to watch in the years ahead. How do you view Julien at this point in his professional career? Can he be the Twins' second baseman of the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every team is looking for top-tier shortstop prospects and the Twins are no different. Can any of these players become the team’s shortstop of the future? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Few players can handle the rigors of shortstop at the big-league level. There is pressure to perform offensively and defensively while being a leader on the field. It is arguably baseball’s most important position, and that’s why many young players are considered shortstops during their amateur careers. The Twins have struggled to cultivate shortstops throughout the franchise’s history, but one of these players has a chance to stop that trend. Triple-A: Royce Lewis (ETA: 2022) Lewis returned from ACL surgery in 2022, and Minnesota was aggressive with Lewis to start the season by sending him to Triple-A. Lewis looked like he hadn’t lost a step as he hit .313/.405/.534 (.940) with 18 extra-base hits in 34 games. His first taste of the big leagues went well too. In 12 games, he posted an .867 OPS before running into the outfield wall and undergoing a second ACL surgery. Lewis will be back in 2023, and the Twins can sign a placeholder shortstop until he is ready to return. Double-A: Brooks Lee (ETA: 2024) Austin Martin (ETA: 2023) Lee and Martin will be a fascinating duo to watch in the years ahead. Both were top-10 picks and considered the best college bats in their draft class. Martin struggled through most of 2022 (.685 OPS) before having a redeeming September. His performance has improved in the Arizona Fall League by going 18-for-38 (.474 BA) with three extra-base hits and 11 runs. He was recently named the league's Hitter of the Week. Martin hopes to follow in Matt Wallner’s footsteps from last year’s AFL season. The Twins should have Martin start at Triple-A next season. The Twins drafted Lee in June, and he quickly put himself on the prospect map. He played games at three different levels and used his college experience to post a .839 OPS. Lee saw his stock already rising in his professional debut. Many top prospect lists will consider him the organization’s best prospect, and he has a chance to be a consensus top-40 prospect entering 2023. Lee likely starts next year at Double-A, but Lee and Martin have a chance to debut next season. High-A: Wander Javier (ETA: 2024) Minnesota signed Javier back in 2015 out of the Dominican Republic, so his name has been on Twins prospect lists for most of the last decade. Some projected him to be a five-tool talent during his early minor league career, but he’s never put it all together. As a 24-year-old, he played most of 2022 at High-A, but he saw late-season action at Triple-A when there was a shortstop need. Over the last two seasons, he has failed to compile an OPS over .700, and his time might be running out in the Twins organization. If he stays with the Twins, he will start the year at Double-A. Low-A: Noah Miller (ETA: 2025), Keoni Cavaco (ETA: 2025) The Twins took Miller with the 36th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, and the 2022 season marked his full-season debut. As a 19-year-old, he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL. He hit .212/.348/.279 (.627) with 18 extra-base hits and 110 strikeouts in 108 games. There were positive signs during the season, as he posted a .964 OPS during May. It seems likely for him to start next season at Low-A while continuing to refine his swing. Minnesota’s current front office took Cavaco with the 13th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. As that draft approached, he was a late riser, but the Twins projected he had the tools to succeed. Last season, he hit .231/.275/.397 (.672) with 34 extra-base hits in 99 games. It was his second straight season at Fort Myers, and he was slightly younger than the competition. With Miller in the same line-up, Cavaco played all of his defensive innings at third base. He likely heads to Cedar Rapids in 2023 to see if he can live up to his first-round pedigree. The names above are just some of the organization’s shortstop options. In rookie ball, other names like Danny De Andrade, Yilber Herrera, and Bryan Acuna will garner more attention as they get deeper into their careers. Baseball’s best teams usually have players with a shortstop background at multiple positions on the field. Minnesota hopes the club’s shortstop of the future is in the group mentioned above. Which prospect plays the most career games at shortstop with the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Little went right for Emilio Pagan in his first season with the Twins. With other pitchers returning, is it time to find a team willing to take on Pagan? Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? Minnesota acquired Emilio Pagan shortly before last year's Opening Day. Minnesota's bullpen was shaping up to have Taylor Rogers as the anchor, but that plan shifted when the Twins sent Rogers to San Diego for Pagan and Chris Paddack. On the surface, it was easy to see the long-term value in the deal because Pagan and Paddack were both under contract for multiple seasons. However, the trade timing was tough to understand, and things couldn't have gone much worse from the Twins' point of view. Paddack looked great to start the year but quickly suffered an arm injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery. The Twins put Pagan into a prominent late-inning role, and he struggled for most of the season. He posted a 5.23 ERA in the first half with a 1.38 WHIP while allowing eight home runs in 32 2/3 innings. His ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.35) dropped in the second half, but the Twins moved him to a lower-leverage role. Since leaving Tampa Bay in 2019, Pagan has yet to post an above-average OPS+, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9). There is a reason San Diego looked for a new closer, and now the Twins may be trying to pass on Pagan. Why is He a Trade Candidate? Bullpen depth can be tough to evaluate because of how volatile performances can be on a year-to-year basis. Tyler Duffey was arguably one of baseball's best relievers for multiple seasons before his performance declined significantly. That being said, the Twins have many options to consider for the 2023 bullpen. Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar will continue to serve in late-inning roles. Younger arms like Cole Sands and Jovani Moran may move into more prominent roles. Multiple players are also returning from injury, including Jorge Alcala and Cody Stashak. Minnesota's front office might decide Pagan isn't needed compared to the other bullpen options. What is His Trade Value? Pagan is heading into his final arbitration season and is projected to make roughly $3.7 million. That is a reasonable contract for a pitcher with late-inning experience, but there are no guarantees with Pagan's performance. His stuff and strikeout numbers make it easy to see why teams viewed him as a viable late-inning relief option. If the Twins decide to trade him, they may need to send some money to pay down his 2023 contract, and this can allow the team to get a low-level prospect in return. Pagan hurt the Twins in 2022, and moving to a new team may help him to get his career back on track. Last winter, the Twins had an option on Alex Colome, whose Twins tenure resembled Pagan's. He pitched poorly in the first half before turning it around in the second half. Minnesota decided it was better to cut their losses and move on from Colome. This situation seems similar in that the team and player might be better served if Pagan is no longer on the Twins. Do you think the Twins can get anything back for Pagan? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES Gio Urshela View full article

Gio Urshela was one of Minnesota's most reliable players in 2022, but Jose Miranda's emergence might make him expendable. Will the Twins trade Urshela? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. What Did He Do in 2022? Gio Urshela's first season in a Twins uniform went about as good as one could expect. He hit .285/.338/.429 (.767) with a 119 wRC+ and a 121 OPS+. He ranked in the 60th percentile or higher in max exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and K%. Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, and Byron Buxton were the only Twins players to accumulate more WAR. His defense was below average as he ranked 8th among AL third baseman in SDI while also being in the 11th percentile for Outs Above Average. Overall, Urshela is an above-average big-leaguer, proving that again in 2022. Many will compare Urshela to Josh Donaldson since they played the same position and were included in the same trade. Urshela's OPS+ was 27 points higher than Donaldson's while accumulating 0.7 more WAR. Donaldson continues to be a superior defender to Urshela, but he was a below-average hitter in 2022. They are unique players at different points in their careers, but Urshela had the stronger 2022 season. Why is He a Trade Candidate? Jose Miranda's emergence over the last two seasons points to him becoming the team's long-term third baseman. In his rookie season, Miranda hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with a 117 wRC+. He finished second in the TD Rookie of the Year voting, which came on the heels of a breakout 2021 season in the minors. Miranda plans to make improvements this winter by training with Carlos Correa. Derek Falvey also spoke highly of Miranda in his year-end press conference, which can signify that the team is ready for him to have a full-time role. Urshela's presence on the roster may be superfluous with Miranda's accolades. What is His Trade Value? Urshela will enter his final arbitration year and projects to get more than $9 million. FanGraphs pegs his value last season at $18.9 million, so his salary is below his production level. There will likely be a variety of teams interested in adding a solid regular to their line-up. However, Urshela is in his final year of team control, which impacts how much teams will be willing to surrender. It doesn't seem likely for Urshela to be worth a king's ransom, but he is worth multiple mid-tier prospects with upside. The Twins aren't forced to trade Urshela this winter because he showed the team the value he can provide in 2022. But injuries can impact the big-league roster, and Urshela might be needed as depth if there are injuries to other parts of the roster. Urshela will be the lone player remaining from the Josh Donaldson trade, so it will be interesting to see if the Twins can continue to get value from what looked like a salary dump trade. Do you think the Twins will try and trade Urshela? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article