JD-TWINS

Hick’s revival year was a .258BA & a .4 WAR …….maybe a .8 WAR over a fully utilized season? We gotta have a couple guys in minors that can bring those numbers & play better defense. Sano seems to be retired, for valid reasons. Odorizzi could be signed to a Minor League contract to July 1……….and then we have interest & sign him or he is freed up to go wherever. He could be a depth option to help them like Kuechel did in ‘23. Not a terrible thought. Garver isn’t going anywhere - his club is in the Series and he’s the DH 50% of the time & back-up Catcher. He’ll re-sign with Rangers!

I agree - Santana probably deserved the 3 Awards in a row!! He’s my favorite Twins pitcher to watch of All-times. Some pretty fun guys over the years, not necessarily great careers or long years of success……..some very successful!! Rick Aguilera - Joe Nathan - Jeff Reardon - Johann Duran - Juan Berringuer Kaat - Perry - Blyleven - Erickson - Viola - Morris - Gray - Lopez and a bunch of lesser or less remembered names. The stats of one guy that are not only influenced by the fact that there were only 4 starters but by the fact that he was an absolute horse of an athlete! Bert Blyleven (brief review): - First SEVEN OF seasons (other than ‘70, he was 19 years old) pitched for mostly weak Twins teams - ERA sub 3.00 over 7 years - 249 starts (after ‘70) averaged 37.33 starts per year for 6 years & (after ‘70, his Rookie year)……. 291 innings per year - 115 complete games!!! ER - 30 Shutouts! - He was 103-97……..pitched for bad teams!! - Age 21, 22, & 23 he went 17-17, 20-17, 17–17 with associated ERA’s of 2.73, 2.52, & 2.66. Don’t know of any pitcher in history with his stats through Age 25…….. -1979 World Series Champ with Pittsburgh - 1985 in blended season with Cleveland & back with Twins he was 17-14 with a 3.16 ERA. At age 34 he lead league in Starts with 37 - Complete Games with 24 - Shutouts with 5 - Innings with 294 - Strikeouts with 206. PHENOMINAL - 1987 World Series Champ with Minnesota - 1989 in age 38 season he went 17-5 with the Angels. 33 starts & 241 innings with 8 complete games & lead league with 5 Shutouts GREAT CAREER - vastly overlooked even though he finally made HOF a few years ago.

Obviously, it’s too soon to the playoff wins to feel comfortable, or nobody has read this post yet. No negativity or shots at Levine or the FO??? So refreshing! We all can be critical of sports team’s management at times as fans - no big deal. The level of angst and disgust for the “FO” over the past year seemed laughable to me at times. There were no right moves made “& never could be ……and btw, the manager sucks”. This was too routine. Trading for Lopez took guts & thought & a depth of knowledge about Lopez. I hated it initially! Thought Luzardo was only available guy that made sense…….still didn’t want to trade Luis!! The depth guys - character FA signings of Farmer - Taylor - Castro - Solano - Vazquez got the team to the playoffs. I trust these guys in the FO to at least be trying to do the right things & get better……..them as much as anyone else.

Adding a bat sounds great - not very easily done. Not many real hitters floating around free or openly on trade market. Our ‘24 opening day line-up v. RH pitching: Julien @ 2B Buxton @ DH (if healthy) Kirilloff @ 1B (if healthy) Lewis @ 3B Wallner in LF CC @ SS Kepler in RF Jeffers @ C Castro in CF Vazquez - Farmer - Solano - #13???? AAA potential - Lee - Martin - Catcher? - Rodriguez What could we get in pitching for Larnach, Miranda, & Jeffers?? Sounds crazy moving a decent defensive catcher with highest OPS in AL at the position - didn’t want to trade Arraez either!! 3 controllable guys with upsides……Jeffers is established. Super doubtful!! Who else could we blend with Larnach, Miranda, Gordon, guys that have shown flashes and need a new home - new chance? Need to open 40 man roster space & though there is some potential for seller’s remorse, these guys don’t seem to be part of Twins future - certainly not a core part! An aside: Teoscar Hernandez was leading the AL in STRIKEOUTS the last time I looked in early August. Just don’t see any value in that type of bat to probably platoon for 45 games with Kepler. We have that guy at DH now with Buxton.

Speed is nice - hitting a pitched ball, arguably most difficult thing to do in sports. Gordon certainly isn’t slow. “He’s OK in left & center & can play IF”. .272 BA in ‘22 with 28 doubles & 9 HR………110 games…….64 in CF. If he can show this promise again in Spring he is trade bait & a long shot for Twins 26 man (no options left). If he’s healthy Gordon is chosen above Stevenson every day. Stevenson will be DFA’d - at AAA at age 29 through August. Speed (Stevenson) was added with roster expansion & injured players. Stuck in playoffs because Buxton was unable to be on roster. Stevenson has no chance of being on Winter 40 man - Gordon has about a 30% chance.

Jordan Montgomery!!!! 4 years - $88M ……done! No other team improvements needed. Texas has deGrom $50M/yr - Scherzer $42M/yr - Heaney$18M/yr - Eovaldi $23M/yr all signed for next year & Montgomery is a FA. Poor man’s answer, if we can’t sign Montgomery, to pitching depth is Martin Perez from Texas at $13M & KENTA MAEDA at $13M/yr for two years.

Gotta say I see a bit of a chasm between Jordan Montgomery & Lucas Giolito! Montgomery had thrown 188 innings in 32 starts during regular season with a 3.20 ERA (10-11 record). Giolito threw 184 innings in 33 starts during regular season with a 4.88 ERA (8-15 record). That said, I think the best thing we could do as an organization is offer Montgomery $85-$90M for 4 years……it would make our staff elite. 6’6” & 230lb with a 9 year career ERA of 3.68 - he’s 30 yrs old v. Gray at 33. Durable lefty with playoff success!!!

Loss of $20-$30M from lack of TV revenue seems pretty valid to me. Hope they can solve this issue but, unsolved, leads to lower or for sure, an unchanged payroll. If we don’t have a new signing outside of ‘23 rostered guys, we can be really aggressive at the deadline. Prior to that we’d be between $120 - $130M……annualized.

NO KIDDING - almost scrolled to the bottom to jump all over that notion!! Did anyone watch him throw in the playoffs? Back to back innings in his last outing against Houston & 1 base runner. He may need a bit more guidance with his pitch selection but his talent - ability to dominate, is second to none! He tends to seem to want to look cool or fool people - batters - fans entering games?? Guy throws 101-102 easily & at that speed he seems to have control, wild high at 103 plus, often - his curve is nearly un-hittable but not always in the zone - splinker is devastating but seldom a strike. He chooses to not throw pitches to get ahead way too often IMO. Comes into a game and he might not throw the 101mph “controlled” fastball until his 5th pitch. Gets behind - walks guys too often. Once he gets behind, batters sit on fastball to make contact. Throw a fastball & get ahead & then do whatever you like as hitter needs to protect the zone after first strike is called. He’s fantastic - the $$ numbers are somewhat just semantics from us fans. Infinite options. I like the term outlined in deal shown - $3M - $5M - $7M - $9M - $13M x 3 years = $63M total guarantee 5 years with two option years.

Nobody is going to pick up his salary in a trade - that’s the reality of whether or not Twins can afford him in ‘24. He has a contract. ‘25 as well. Only trade chance would be to trade him with another guy that can play and doesn’t make any money yet. It sounds to me like he was the 5th best defensive catcher in the AL……..he’ll be our back up in ‘24 and still start 40% of the games to keep Jeffers healthy & fresh. My assumption is Jeffers makes $2M or less at this point in his career - so, $12M total for 2 catchers that are very competent is not too much money. Basically, since they signed Vazquez the offensive stats between the two guys flipped. Not a big problem for the organization. Keeping the Kid at triple A under control & keeping him interested is the challenge. Next year (‘25) - if desired, they may negotiate his $ owed to $5M and let him be a FA - doubtful he doesn’t get all $20M owed from the Twins.

Don’t see other, lesser clubs, passing on Gordon & Alcala.

Can’t trade his salary unless wrapped with a controllable prospect. Could maybe make a trade if another team’s main catcher goes down with injury. Not sure what the author was describing when he said this is about a “low impact position”? Catcher is certainly as important if not more than any of the 7 other fielding positions. Jeffers OPS lead all catchers. Let him play 60-65% of the time but keep him fresh. Vazquez was top 5 in defensive metrics in AL - great for the back-up. $11M for two good overall catchers that are durable is a good #! We’re good behind the plate.

Tough to over react if you’re hit by 98Mph around your shoulder. Pretty easy to get heated about that even if you struck out the previous 3 at bats. If you just hit a 3 run HR in the ALCS it just elevates the reaction. He didn’t really do anything but yell and get a little rammy with the catcher. That said, no intelligent baseball manager nor team would throw at a guy late in a game with a runner already on base and down 2 runs. Can’t imagine justifying hitting the batter & it being seen as an OK baseball move in a competitive game TO GET TO WORLD SERIES - NO WAY! The suspension is nuts!!

Note to author - I understand you didn’t see Jim Kaat pitch but that makes me pretty confident you didn’t see Killebrew - Carew- Oliva - Versailles either ……. when a guy is in the HOF you probably don’t need to see him play. An actual team listing: Lymann Bostock - LF S. Mack Paul Molitor - DH N. Cruz Rod Carew - 2B C. Knoblach Harmon Killebrew - 3B G. Gaetti Tony Oliva - RF Brunansky Kirby Puckett - CF Hunter Justin Morneau - 1B Hrbek Carlos Correa - SS Versailles Joe Mauer - C Harper Staff: Santana - Blyleven - Viola - Morris - Kaat Pen: Nathan - Aguilera - Guardado - Reardon - Peranoski - Duran Couple guys from old Senator teams would/should be on the team but other than Walter Johnson, wouldn’t be recognized so left omitted.

I would be surprised if we weren’t amenable to our arbitration guys…….this will help to maintain our depth. The guys like Taylor - Solano I’d think we would make offers to that were league competitive. Solano probably elevated his salary level to twice his ‘23 number & Taylor probably elevated his value as well. I’d guess 1 year deals for $4M & $5.5M to get them signed. Gordon - Castro - Farmer - Solano - Taylor - Vazquez - Larnach are the depth pieces we would expect to be of value in ‘24……….need some decisions on who to trade/release ………….Luplow - Stevenson - Gallo are all gone from consideration…………I’m guessing Polanco is traded as well at some point. By June 15, core of: Buxton - Correa - Jeffers - Julien - Kepler - Kirilloff - Lee - Lewis - Wallner Vazquez - Castro - Farmer - Solano We’ll need guys like Lee & Martin for roster flexibility during times of injury & recovery because our other depth pieces have no options left. The roster is jammed with real players in my example & that’s moving on from Taylor & Polanco. Tough decisions coming for FO. GRAY’S PRODUCTION being replaced is sensitive. He pitched great even when he didn’t have all his good stuff. However, the TEAM was 14-19 in his starts. Whether he didn’t get enough run support, we didn’t make plays, or the bullpen coughed up an opportunity…….we were 5 games under when he started. He probably gave us a good opportunity in 25-26 of his starts. His record individually was 8-8. I think we can replace his innings and at least the same 14 wins or more with Varland taking up his starts. Nobody wants to hear that or think that it may make sense. Not saying we shouldn’t offer Jordan Montgomery $85M for 4 years or Gray $52M for 2 years or Kenta Maeda $26M for 2 years but I wouldn’t ignore that we have Varland and his head tells him he should be a starter. We have 4 other capable guys at age 28 and under control for 4-6 years each. Could use keeping status quo roster to early sign 2-3 guys. If needed, be aggressive for A possible need at the deadline.

How did the best team in the AL (The O’s) do with no experience - they got beat like a drum!! Small steps when it comes to postseason. Tired of the gloom & doom here……the guys saying we didn’t change the face of the team & how it’s sites are set going forward this year are the same guys that we’re saying we were going to max out at 78 wins in June!! With Lee coming and another youngster at some point in ‘24 we’ll be just fine starting the season with a similar roster as ‘23. Regular season record v. some competitive clubs: Astros - we won 4 of 6 Rangers - we won 5 of 7 Phillies - we won 2 of 3 Diamondbacks - we won 3 of 3 That’s 14-5 against the last 4 teams standing. We got beat up by Tampa & Atlanta for balance & reality check. My point here is our only success doesn’t come only in the AL Central!! That is old!!

Mahle - Gallo - Maeda - Gray - Polanco - Kepler $58M off the $156M ……who to keep? I convert Kepler & re-sign Maeda …….that’s about $24M total. Increases due to arbitration would be no more ADDITIONAL $ than $10M. Low $130’s for payroll OK? I’d consider some early extensions with Jax & Duran for future savings & short term security for guys.

Hitting stats are the basis for the game - most difficult part. I liked Gordon post ‘22 a lot!! I like Castro for the reasons you pointed out. I think the depth move may be to have Gordon & Castro be the Outfield guys along with Kepler & Wallner………then, do we bring back Taylor……..what’s Buxton’s health in 3-4 months? As good as Taylor was, his age & strikeouts may be a sign to move to more youth. Could sign him & if things work out (Gordon’s hitting) with Buxton, we trade Gordon or Taylor into the season? Neither can be optioned - tough call for FO.

Gallo - Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Polanco are the salaries I see going away. That’s a general total of about $49M ………I keep Kepler because of continuity - can’t dump a guy that had a near .900 OPS for last 3 months. Kirilloff will play 1B. Other guys are, at best, a wash with Kepler’s offense. His D is still superior if healthy. Release or option/trade Polanco……his salary is gone. Played 104 games & hit .235 in ‘22……played 80 games & hit .255 in ‘23. Declining production (.270 career hitter) and lack of availability! I’d try to sign Maeda for $12-$14M/yr for 2 years. Great depth piece to supplement starters. Base cost of $92M with Polanco savings = $82M plus arbitration guys totaling $15M = $97M plus Maeda at $14M = $111M Extend 2-3 guys early - $15M total spend ‘this year. That’s $126M total - hope we can swing that!

I’d like to see Miranda gone but his value is at an all time low after ‘23. He has potential but playing hurt really messed up his numbers and perception. We’re good at 3B & if Kirilloff is healthy, we’re good at 1B. IMO, Miranda doesn’t fit. Larnach should get another look in Spring Training but he’ll be challenged to make Big Club. Trading him with a cluster of other guys should be on the table. I live in Cincinnati & understand the allure of the two young pitching prospects they have - the issue is the Twins can’t trade Jeffers w/o somebody coming up & ready from the organization. The other issue is the Reds carried 3 catchers this year and one was nearly rookie of the year 3 seasons ago - he’s DH often on off days…….Stephenson is solid and a core piece of this Reds Club. The ultimate “trade high” guy (with risk!) would be Eddie Julien. Hitter - high OBP - with Pop. The bad news is we have a #1 pick coming sometime next year to play his position - Brooks Lee. In the meantime (if he were to be traded) our options are Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon. I don’t know you could get proper value back for Julien - don’t like trading good offense - too hard to hit a baseball.

What would that potential be? Youth? Castro plays 5 defensive positions at average or better……..he switch hits……….he steals bases at a high level. hit .255 in ‘23. Farmer plays 3 positions better than average & has a proven track record vs. LH pitching. Hoping for the best for Jose but don’t see him playing in Minneapolis again in a TWINS uniform

Can’t imagine the organization holds any value in keeping Stevenson on 40 man. He’s got good speed and had playoff experience so he made sense in ‘23 for expanded roster & playoffs, with other guys being hurt. Can’t hit at high enough level. He’s gone. Similar profile for Luplow. IMO, Balazovic is in our 8 man Pen when Spring Training breaks at end of March. Needs experience - can’t let him get pilfered!! Interesting looks at the roster issues by the author - well done!!!

Already have a crowd at 2B with Lee at AAA. Castro - Gordon - Farmer - Julien - Polanco Julien’s a possibility to help get back to Kirilloff by June. IMO, Miranda is lower on my list for a comeback than Buxton. I re-sign Solano for $3.5M and expect him to be my RH hitting 1B for at least 3 plus months. Farmer also can be used at 1B as needed……particularly if he’s groomed to be there more, while in Spring Training.

Larnach seems as extreme as we can go but maybe worth a shot. Julien & Solano to start the year makes sense. Kirilloff by June. Sign Polanco & potentially trade in July if Julien is hitting & Lee seems ready. Miranda, IMO, has about a 10% chance to play for us again. To me, Kirilloff is our 1B going forward ……assuming health. We have OF covered with athletic OF’s.

Didn’t forget CC - my comments were about guys in the “logjam” of an infield that could be traded or not started. He’s a fixture and there’s no reason for conjecture at SS, other than depth. Brooks Lee is going to start at 2B at some point. Kirilloff doesn’t enter the conversation since he’s left handed and not going to play anywhere but 1B in infield. The Lee v. Julien issue is the elephant in the room. To get down to that, Polanco needs to be out of the picture, IMO. Therefore, moving Jorge from the picture via FA or extend & trade is what I see as our path forward.