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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Good points - both strike out a lot so the adjustment ls being made by them seem to be coming up short. I did see somewhere yesterday that Wallner, over last 6 weeks in St Paul dropped his K rate from around 37% to around 24% - that’s pretty significant. Love Larnach’s look as a player but Wallner seems to be a similar outfielder - great arm - better & more consistent power!! The power difference is significant.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Assuming the twisting & torque generated with an at bat is the most high risk. Lewis will be ready when they come home I assume. You’re exactly correct, today they looked like a team that had been constructed to look a certain way with a certain group and we were missing the 3 core guys or at least “arguably” the 3 core guys. An offense that’s a shell of itself. Was calling for Kepler to be DFA’d or given away at deadline all of June - the guy has turned the corner relative to solid contact. He hit 3 balls to the wall today……410ft dead center ………395ft to center………370ft to left center. Tough luck this afternoon. Haven't seen a reason all season not to bunt next time we get first 2 guys on base (1st & 2nd)…….with our K rate and our double play propensities, we almost need to play for the lead and hope it blooms into a big inning. Seems hoping a Buxton comes back is counterintuitive but what’s up with a Kirilloff??? Need him!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Dylan Bundy was fine for 5 innings 2 out of 3 starts. He was our 4th starter though, so our expectations were much higher! If Kuechel gets us 5 innings, average, for 6 more starts and holds teams to 3 runs or less, he’s a hero. If we send Ryan or Ober out there tired, all the previous ‘23 stat cast bologna doesn’t help them during their 25th start. On a relative basis a decent Kuechel is better than our normal starters if they feel rundown. That’s the bottom line. Doesn’t matter if Kuechel is at his 2015-2017 self…….on Sunday he looked like a guy that gave us a chance to win…….that’s the pitcher’s job. At least 3 of 8 hits were soft contact - 2 were too soft. 2 walks in 5 innings is the guy he is now & was in St Paul. He’s pitched to contact his whole career - he’s got experience & guts - he may get lit up a couple times but I saw Ryan give up 6 HR’s in one game & 4 in another. Can’t get worse than those two starts - give the guy a chance!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Gotta try to use the guy in a game where the score is essentially neutral. Guy has to get some outs - can’t second guess the manager every time a BP arm gives up a run! I think we were down 1 when he came in - not a Jax/Thielbar spot…..IMO. Maybe Floro, but is he that much better or any better than Balazovic? We moved J Lopez - need to find guys that can fill out the 8 spots.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Lee - Lewis - Wallner - Julien - Kirilloff - Jeffers are going nowhere. With Mahle - Gray - Polanco - Gallo - Taylor leaving in ‘24, we have $50M freed up for a FA pitcher if desired. Paddack - Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Varland……..Maeda could be an affordable and likely re-sign. Kuechel is too soon but a potential affordable guy that seems to like pitching for the Twins. Could probably get Maeda & Kuechel for $20M total. Couple potential young arms from system to add depth during the year? Don’t see us trading prospects for pitching. Miranda - Celestino - Larnach - Martin - etc. are all guys in St. Paul that should be available for whatever needs we think we have.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Can’t rush Lewis! Farmer can play 1B. Not a lot of difference between moving Polanco or Julien to 1B…….I agree, Polanco has a better chance……still not very bright! Gallo will play v. RH starters until Kirilloff gets back, like it or probably not!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff & Lewis need to be healthy. Wallner - Julien - Kepler - Jeffers - Castro need to continue to hit as they have been. Ryan to the Pen - maybe with Varland in September? 12 arms in playoffs & only 4 starters needed. CC - Polanco - Buxton need to be decent - not necessary to Star but gotta show up at an average level. Game 3 & Game 4 our starter will match up well and we should be a draw with starters in first two games in a series. Optimistic!!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano (all gone) is $70M out of the $153 in ‘23. We’re OK budget wise if we re-sign Solano & Maeda & Kepler for a total of $25M……leaves $45M in savings from ‘23. Kuechel will be interesting - he seems to like organization……,,,what if we get 5 of 7 good starts from him? Do we throw $7M at him with a couple incentives? $11M at Maeda? $4M at Solano? Kick in Kepler’s $10M?…….some good vets around our young guys for not too much money! ‘24 Staff: Paddack - Varland - Kuechel - Maeda - Lopez - Ober - Ryan……………draft pick for Gray after Qualifying Offer…….gives us depth and the ability to trade mid-season as well.
  9. JD-TWINS
    No doubt - Royce Lewis!! We’re used to CC - Buxton - Kepler and have stayed competitive with their wavy play. Same with piecing the Pen together without Thielbar. Lewis hasn’t been available but we are all assuming he will come back - he’ll start routinely - he’ll be effective. NEED Royce Lewis to contribute in September & beyond!! How big an X-factor if he continues to hit .325 through the remainder of the season?
  10. JD-TWINS
    It’s not being a DH - Right!! His head was maybe messed up with an impending birth??? He went for 7 hits in 4 games back after the Paternity Leave/birth of child - then hamstring. Can’t get a break!! Having lunch and watching MLB 50 top plays of the month of July. 3 of the Top 25 catches were against Buxton, All in the Baltimore series. Robbed of double, triple, & single……..diving catch - catch jumping off the wall - snagged a line drive respectively. He’s not getting breaks and then other times he’s just not executing - bad combination! Not mentally soft because he’s not playing CF.
  11. JD-TWINS
    I don’t mind seeing Kuechel after Lopez or Gray for an inning or two in playoffs …….maybe turn a couple guys around in middle innings - force pinch hitters to be used? He’s a Veteran - he’d potentially be great used against right piece of a lineup! How about an 8th inning between Jax & Duran……..pretty different look for opposition!! Long way to go to worry about the playoffs.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Ryan was 5th in the AL in K’s 2 starts ago at 148. His hard hit contact is different than Kuechel’s hard hit contact. I believe 17 dingers in last 7 starts. I like Joe & his leg or tired arm certainly have played into his problems. Kuechel gives up a line drive to Left at 88MPH and right after he strikes somebody out Ryan gives up 105MPH 15 rows deep. Kuechel’s used to not striking guys out - used to base path traffic - used to contact to get outs. My point is a guy like Ryan may get 5 ground balls per outing & Kuechel may give up 5 fly balls per outing. His approach & experience is of value.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Noted. Lopez & Gray & the rest of the Staff give up we’ll hit liners to Taylor & Kepler all the time. They are outs and part of the game. Kuechel got lucky on a liner to Castro at 3B to end an inning. He also gave up 2 bade hits in front of Julien which were both taps off the end of the bat. Kuechel’s value is his composure & his lack of HR given up.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Oliva cup to drink from routinely as a 4-5 year old. “Tony O!” My older sister was the Pillsbury’s nanny/cook for a couple years while at the U …….we got their tickets a few rows behind the Twins dugout a couple times. Jim Kaat playing catch 30-40 feet away in front of the dugout - I was hooked! Started playing baseball in summer of ‘70. Twins were good ‘69 & ‘70. Kaat - Peranoski - Perry - Blyleven Tovar - Carew - Cardenas - Oliva - Killebrew Great days!! Brothers were both into the game and were 14 & 15 years older than me so they were a big influence out in the yard. My Dad knew more baseball history than most, so that was fun as well.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Farmer is signed for ‘24. Lee will be on the club at some point in ‘24. Castro will still be on the club……part time player w/o a steal through most of April…..30 steals out of 34 tries on August 8. Position flexibility!! My assumption is that whichever plays well through playoffs will get his option excercised. Kepler seems to have a leg up on Polanco now because of the lean toward Julien &/or Lee at 2B in future and Polanco’s inability to stay on the field. Gotta be available! If he holds together - it’s Max in right in ‘24.
  16. JD-TWINS
    He had reasonable command Sunday. If he doesn’t walk guys, big ask, he can give a bunch of hits up and only 3 runs or less through 5 innings. That’s what we need. We need him to provide rest for others and “average” pitching results. He gave up 7 hits Sunday and 3 of them were rollers in front of our infielders and one was a flare over SS. He looked good. Best part is he’s 35 & experienced! He’s used to contact. He’s composed & I look for him to, not be perfect, but effective in a handful of outings. He may fail 2 of 8 starts?? - the rest for others is worthwhile in the end. If guys go out tired, they have a bad outing anyway, & they are still tired!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Exactly! Jeffers DHed between his last two catching stints - he’s playing well & used to days off. Don’t screw that up. Julien struggles v. lefties. Solano hurt his knee so the other available 1B goes into the game. These things are why there’s more than 9 guys on a team. What’s the mystery?
  18. JD-TWINS
    He missed a waste high throw from the catcher on a steal play at 2B about 3 days ago. Completely missed the ball - decent throw - looked like a fool. I like Julien, but he has no intuitive feel on the defensive side. He needs to get to Winter ball somewhere after season ends and he needs to work on his skills at 2B!!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Farmer is signed for ‘24. Not a bad thing. Need a roster spot. Julien HAS to get better and able to play at least 50% of the time at 2B. He needs 2 weeks off after season and then he needs to go to the Infielder’s version of Driveline!!! Can’t complain about Buxton “clogging the DH spot all year” and then just park Julien there for next 10 years. Lewis - Castro - Martin ……..possibly Castro as best option ……….need to play CF. Gordon is a long shot to stick but he should certainly be given an opportunity in CF with this group above as well. Honestly, I don’t see us hanging on to an oft injured Polanco. Lee - Castro - Julien - Farmer seem to have 2B covered! Larnach or Taylor or both are out of the mix……more than likely, Polanco as well. Need the roster spots for youth………abandoning Solano??
  20. JD-TWINS
    If he stays healthy and gets in another 44-45 games the OPS+ of 110 should be attainable with 25 HR in ‘23. His BA should finish above .240. His defense is solid. Continuity with the club …….he seems enthused to play. Big cuts - good contact - even when making outs! He needs to keep rolling at some positive level, particularly in playoffs, & then Twins will have to pick up his option for ‘24.
  21. JD-TWINS
    This could be the best FO move to come to fruition in August! If he can get us 5-6 competitive missed starts between Ryan - Ober - Gray - Lopez, through August & early September, we are golden! We can carry him & Ryan in the Pen in playoffs along with Thielbar - Headrick - Jax - Pagan - Balazovic - Duran 12 man staff & we can carry an extra bat in playoffs as 4 starters is plenty. Really hope he can stay focused. He’s so different in today’s game that he will continue to give teams trouble if he can maintain command! Long way to go but his first outing was really solid!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano………That’s near $70 million gone from $153 in ‘23. Castro is cheap - Farmer is signed. Vazquez - CC - Buxton all sunk money, can’t change. Kepler’s gotta perform but he sure does seem to have found something. He’s hitting the ball hard on fly outs. Had been popping up to SS & hitting rollers to the right side for most of 3 months! Seems to have a purpose to punish the ball……that was lacking. I think they sign him or Polanco. Polanco can’t stay healthy and he’s not tearing it up. Whoever plays well through the playoffs will have a great chance of getting re-upped They almost have to re-sign Maeda & Solano - that’s maybe $15M & then Kepler for $10M….. that still leaves $45M to spread to pitchers (early sign Ober)……..Ryan needs to rebound when healthy to consider him. Duran & Jax deserve offers and it gets them security and keeps price down for Twins.
  23. JD-TWINS
    He’s here for ongoing chemistry - another “insurance” guy. He’s solid at 1B (No, Polanco - Julien - Wallner - Larnach are not playing 1B) and is around in case somebody else in the core group goes down. He’s been terrible - nobody can support him! FO wants him for continuity through the Lewis - Buxton - Kirilloff injuries……probably through August……..they may even IL Joey to buy time in August? They can then carry him as one of the extra 2 guys through September. He’s definitely done October 2, even though they will probably carry 14 position players in playoffs. Can’t have him taking up a roster spot at crunch time …….50 plus % strikeout guy is gone in playoffs.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Charmed life?? Maybe relative to push from fellow competitors? At least 6 pitchers out at times with ailments…… Stewart - Lopez - Mahle - Maeda - Winder Thielbar Polanco & Lewis alone have been a killer, not to mention Buxton & Kirilloff……..gotta be nearly 200 games missed between these 4 starters.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Going Old School with a Tommy John comparison to Kuechel.
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