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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    No doubt that’s the SMART BET! I’ve stated for months that the expectation for Buxton should be 30-40 games in CF and hoping for 110-120 games total. Every other entry about Buxton from me states he’s only played over 100 games ONCE! (emphasized when some here want 140 games & 30 steals in ‘24……wow!) That said, been drinking the “I feel great” Kool Aid from Byron. Hoping for up to 50 starts in CF…..70 games at DH. 120 starts……he still rests or misses 25% of the season in that scenario. Thinking the RBI will come from more AB’s and him hitting a little deeper in the line-up as well as being protected better with an overall better line-up……….more similar to 2019’s. Fingers crossed!!!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Ryan has won 13 & 11 the past 2 years with difficulties in both years. To me, with the uptick, even mild, in run production & the long depth in the Pen, he’s back to 13 Wins at a minimum. Lopez had to pitch in cold for first time early last year - had a new pitch to master in the Sweeper - 2 new catchers as well……….he’s going to strike out near 200 but will definitely beat his win total from last year, 11. I really expect he’s got a great chance to win 50% or more of his starts……conservatively, 15 Wins! 91 Team wins, minimum. Don't want to jinx Lewis, nor Kepler. Buxton plays 120 games as CF & DH while hitting a minimum of 22 HR & accruing at least 75 RBI along with his 25 doubles!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    To me, Margot is the 5th outfielder. ….Buxton has good reverse splits v. RH pitching but Castro will see CF at least 60 games if not 90, IMO. Buxton, to stay healthy, has to be at DH fairly regularly. Margot in LF v. LH pitching makes perfect sense…….that’s 45 starts or so right there. Another 35 starts or so in CF & that’s half the schedule. From above, not sure in what universe Margot is a late inning defensive replacement for Byron Buxton in CF………maybe if Buxton just hit an inside the park HR?
  4. JD-TWINS
    My assumption is they’ll bring up the next best player in any injury scenario that can, obviously, fill out the defensive need. Martin was a first round draft pick at SS so I think he’s ahead of Hellman in the pecking order, even if he plays all OF & Castro moves into an infield centered role. If Castro goes down, Martin is essentially his defensive clone.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Farmer - Santana - Kepler are all gone in ‘25 & Castro can control his value forward as he’s still inexpensive…… & versatile!! Lee is on the ‘25, 26 man roster unless there’s a real unforeseen happening. Wallner in RF is the only OF certainty for ‘25. Lee - CC - Julien on the dirt seem to make most sense. How Team covers 1B - LF - DH are the question marks to me (Lewis-Kirilloff) for ‘25……..along with CF, obviously, hoping Buxton is playing 40-80 games there going forward. I really like Lewis in LF every day - this allows a comeback for Miranda at 1B in a platoon with Kirilloff at 1B …….also, all 3 get AB’s at DH. Kirilloff can play some LF - Lewis can play some 3B, particularly v. LH pitching, to rest Lee.
  6. JD-TWINS
    After his Rookie year - getting his defense to neutral - .380 OBP - 16 HR’s in less than 400 AB’s ……….if Julien isn’t viewed as high or higher than any guy that hasn’t hit a bunch (at a high level) in AAA the GM’s are nuts.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Why? Julien was neutral by the end of his Rookie season……Farmer is slightly plus at 2B. Don’t understand.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Let’s see if Lee can hit at AAA before there is a trade or a “generational talent” proclamation. Julien has a better outlook on March 3, 2024 - he hit 16 HR’s and an exceptional OBP as a Rookie. Absolutely no reason to consider trading him! Btw, Lee’s OPS from right side is mid .600’s as a Pro………so he’s (at this point) another good left handed hitter.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Has Kuechel swallowed his pride & retired? If not, he may be the May 25th signing to an MiLB deal with an August opt out for him? Lorenzen threw a high pitch count, no hitter after joining the Phillies and then went in the tank. He’ll get signed as a high test Bullpen arm at worst. My assumption is that at this point, Lorenzen & Clevinger are just waiting for the “Spring Training” injuries to start wearing down a particular staff. They’ll be signed in 10 days, somewhere. Seems the Orioles have a couple big question marks with their staff already - 2 guys that were keys in their rotation mix are down……as an example. For 3 months I’ve been promoting Clevinger for the Twins at $16M/yr for two years. 131 innings in his 2nd year back from surgery with a 3.71 ERA. ………maybe he signs another “prove it deal” for only 1 year ……….with a mutual option for the 2nd year? Festa - SWR are every bit as likely to succeed as Cueto, Kuechel, Odo, etc. those guys are a stretch for any organization let alone one that’s aspiring to get to League Championship series.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Did Martin get hurt? He’s been 12th - 13th roster spot or next man up from AAA for 4 months. Nikko Goodrum is such a long shot that I cannot think of a scenario where he’s on the Team. To me, Martin - Larnach & then this discussion of other depth starts. inclusive of Keirsey.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Where’s Martin in the mix…….he was the 13th guy 2 weeks ago on many TD generated rosters?
  12. JD-TWINS
    ?????? He hit .270 with a .348 OBP and a 117 OPS+ in 2023……..unless he has some sort of mental breakdown he’s starting at 1B v. RH pitching ……70% of the games.
  13. JD-TWINS
    A start like last year would be wonderful. The young guys will be starting their first full year in The Show - excitement - pressure - etc. At the end of April the Twins were 17-12 in 2023. A much better May/June would be the thing to shoot for in ‘24. Team was 12-15 x two months………this was their problem stretch! ……………….. Generally, I do not understand the angst regarding the position player line-up whatsoever……..if Buxton can actually play CF 40 % of the time and Kepler isn’t completely ice cold for the first 3 months, this line-up has pop up and down v. RH or LH pitching!! ”Best bullpen in A.L.” is being predicted by Baseball People. Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff/Santana along with Jeffers/Vazquez is really solid! 3 of 5 starters back in rotation along with 4-5 guys to fill the other 2 spots. Wallner’s arm in LF next to Buxton’s range & Kepler’s smooth RF ………this is a very good Playoff outfield! Anybody can get hurt on any team…….. nothing can be done about it ………next guy up and push forward. No reason to think the doom & gloom will only be an issue with the TWINS.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Infield v. LH pitching: Lewis - Correa - Farmer - Santana….. is very solid on offense & defense. Infield v. RH pitching: Lewis (occasionally Castro) - CC - Julien - Kirilloff …….weaker defensively but more power Don’t see Lee denting this group until at least July…….he needs to solidify his hitting in St Paul
  15. JD-TWINS
    Lee hasn’t hit well enough to push anyone of the assumed 13 position players. Kirilloff has 20 plus HR power and had a 117 OPS+ last year. He’s not going anywhere. Julien at first is like some game played with baseball cards as a kid, IMO.
  16. JD-TWINS
    5 runs on 3 hits is being pretty efficient! 1 guy LOB all day. 5 arms got them through 6 shutout innings - nice effort.
  17. JD-TWINS
    He looks pretty good in the Pen Friday afternoon! Doesn’t look like he’s throwing with any discomfort. He can hang in Florida a few extra weeks - no problem.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Varland - Funderburk - Alcalá are the Top 3 guys that can bring some momentum & ability to the Staff/Team. Larnach is first OF up since they don’t need CF depth anymore…….Buxton goes down, they still have Castro & Margot in a platoon. He can also fit as a DH v. RH pitching. Lee in July, IF needed. Farmer - Santana - Castro for infield depth is impenetrable unless there’s an injury. No Miranda - No Martin in any near-term plans.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Don’t really care if he’s not ready until May 15……;would be nice to get 80 innings in ‘24 at some point though.
  20. JD-TWINS
    I do know Oliva was kept in minors longer because he didn’t play OF anywhere near average. He then tore the League up as a Rookie in ‘64. Killebrew was too young to impress at that level for first 3-4 years. Mauer was pretty hyped and viewed in that light pretty much out of the gate regardless of the stats & early injury. Handful of Grand Slams and consistency during regular season, when in the line-up, has Lewis in that context………..particularly with his star play in the postseason. Definitely looks like he has “it”!
  21. JD-TWINS
    So 12 months ago Farmer was the full time starting SS. Right? 70-50 is the record he had in games played……do the guys he displaced whenever he entered a game not get credit for being involved in a win???? Are defensive replacements put into games because they have low value or because there is a level of confidence in their play? Saying Larnach might beat out Farmer is ………,,won’t go there.
  22. JD-TWINS
    I do not think Santana has a chance to start ahead of Kirilloff v. RH pitching. Makes no sense. ……..potentially, people stating Santana is the “regular guy at 1B” are same that also think Brooks Lee will be at 2B & Julien will take over 1B. Silly, IMO.
  23. JD-TWINS
    2023 Twins best plus/minus ……..Kyle Farmer 70-50 team record in his games played. (he would have played more but was out a month after getting hit in the face) Not going anywhere! He’s adept defensively at all 3 spots on the dirt & the perfect platoon with Julien. …….He’ll start at Shortstop 20-25 games……..maybe 15 at 3B since Castro will help there as well. 30% at 2B v. LH pitching so that’s conservatively 45 games. Starts 80-90 games total and sees time in 110-120.
  24. JD-TWINS
    If they are facing a RH pitcher & Buxton starts in CF………I like the other guys playing their positions (Wallner-Kepler-Julien) with Castro as the DH. Do I think he’ll have opportunities (lots) to play CF & Buxton could be the DH, sure! It will be interesting to see the Santana/Kirilloff split at 1B.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I think the Kirilloff/Santana platoon at 1B could be a 25-30HR combo with OPS in the .825 range……….this is just Santana from the right side & obviously, Kirilloff from the left side.
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