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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    When you ignore a whole season, and the most recent at that to claim Varland is a great reliever, well, call it what you want, but it isn't a full look. Eddie Julien was great in '23, then the league caught up to him, and he is fighting for a roster spot. Varland is pretty much the same, and likely to start in St Paul given his options and the 'pen depth. (And the even great rotational depth if he wants to stay a starter.) As of the end of last season, his pitches were not quite good enough in either individual quality or as used in sequences, and opponents were hitting like a collective All-Star off of him in either role. He needs to get better before he can excel. In either role. (And again, I hope he does!)
  2. PatPfund
    When you cherry pick you can flex stats all sorts of ways, and it wasn't lost on me that you sort of skip over the most recent season, but here is some of the stat line from Varland's relief 2024: 9 appearances, opp BA .320, slugging .493, OPS .859. I would definitely call that homely. It is in fact only marginally better than his starting appearances. That were bad enough for the bullpen strategy. Look, maybe he came up with a better curve ball and things will be better, but his fastball isn't good enough to fool enough people. Without a dominant "other" pitch, Louie's failures are going to be loud. (I love the guy, but I'd rather see him get work in St Paul until he's shown he is ready in either role.)
  3. PatPfund
    Louis (for spelling and his family, but you can call him Louie) wants to be an SP. My guess is the Twins will give him a stretched out workload in ST, and give him a chance to make his case (something that doesn't hurt the team). If he doesn't, he'll probably go to St Paul to work on RP development (he may have tools but his relief stats are homely). If Varland has great stretched out appearances he probably goes to St Paul anyway. Adams got lit up in his first appearance, and if he doesn't right that ship quickly, he is an easy waive off of the 40-man (and unlikely to be claimed if that happens). Being on that roster is the only reason to give him AAA starts ahead of Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Lewis, and maybe Varland and/or Ynoa. My guess he starts the year as the sixth starter (something needed to start), and then he and Dobnak do piggybacks on some of the other starts until stretching out finishes and MLB call-ups create gaps (which will happen). Tonkin is a fungible arm; a decent MLB RP with the service time that you have to waive him to send him down, and not good enough that you might have to send him down. Nobody would trade much, because even if you can't get Tonkin, you can get someone like him. Twins are going to have to waive him at some point even if he makes the team, because they will need the flexibility/spot at some point. No way I see Canterino in a rotation this year. If he has a healthy bullpen year, then maybe next year (unless he is so good that ends the convo... like Duran did a few years ago). Possibly Brock Stewart good or better. Definitely Brock Stewart fragile (or more?).
  4. PatPfund
    Ideally, Julien figures it out, but otherwise there are worse solutions. I'm definitely someone who rolls their eyes up into their head when Rocco gets played by other managers into taking out his better players with a mid-game pitching change, but... ...I get a sense Baldelli is finally feeling like his job is on the line (and it is even if ownership doesn't change). The radical (only for him) idea of having the team do defensive drills as a team. And talking about concentrating Martin on a position instead of moving him around (ensuring he plays none of them well). He may be slower to remove Wallner on a one-off pitching change as that bat really too good to lose.
  5. PatPfund
    I still believe the Twins did the right thing. The end result of many minors games may not be to win, but it definitely isn't to throw games to get rest time, and much worse, make your teammate (who is also fighting for advancement) look terrible so you can get time off. I think he deserves another chance (it's not like this was a sexual assault), but he also has to earn it, and if this statement ends up undermined by the investigation, most organizations are going to look at the denial as another judgement lapse that has to be overcome. (Probably why his agency didn't want him talking.)
  6. PatPfund
    As the OP said, it is pretty much about health. Even if Miranda (best option now and in the future) and France (glorified try-out, and best case shines for us and is traded/signed elsewhere by next year) hit, there should be options. As @chpettit19 points out, we have a couple corner OFs who both hit from the other side of Miranda and France, certainly have the height to make a great target, and wield 1B-caliber bats. We also have an MLB Top Twenty 20 prospect already on the 40-man that plays OF with more athleticism than Wallner or Larnach, and down at AA we have one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball who also plays OF. Leaving defense aside (and anyone arguing for Ford or Gasper should be happy with that), I'd much rather keep Wallner/Larnach bats in the order than make space for Ford, Gasper, or Willi. Or France unless he hits his way on to the team in major fashion. (Plus, the room will have to be made in the next two months for Emma, so hopefully one of our tall dudes is getting reps now.)
  7. PatPfund
    The starting bullpen is so inflexible (too good to send down or out of options or Rule 5) that I wouldn't lock in Tonkin. It isn't that he is bad, but he isn't great either; sort of the definitive fungible pitcher. I kind of feel like he is pitching for his job against Castellano, and even if he does make the trip north, Tonkin is probably the guy Alcala comes up for (dangerously assuming a healthy April for Stewart). And this is really the opposite of what you asked, but I'm fairly mystified by Travis Adams on the 40-man. On a recent TwinsDaily video, discussion turned to the Saints rotation, and it is hard to make a case that Adams is even good enough for that (Festa, Matthews, Raya, Morris, Lewis then maybe Adams and Dobnak?). Unless he hops on the relief train, I'd guess Adams gets bumped when the St Paul shuttle adds a passenger. (And to answer the question, I don't think Canterino makes the club out of ST, but think he will prove dominant once he gets his feet wet in the bigs.)
  8. PatPfund
    Good looking prospect, and the type of player that makes watch MiLB so much fun. (Pretty happy to see the Twins.tv package comes with the minor leagues as well, though I did plunk for the full MLB.tv plus Twins package.) Speaking of pitching prospects, it was really fun to see Castellano in a Twins game today (some great stuff on display). Festa also looked great (his stuff is always great, but he was throwing a ton of strikes today, which is his key to another level).
  9. PatPfund
    Look at what the team did, not what it says. France has a small non-guaranteed contract; this is essentially a spring try-out/showcase. If Miranda hits he'll be playing., regardless. If France doesn't hit and Julien or Lee do, Ty won't make the team. Even if France does hit his way onto the team (and there is certainly a path), Miranda is only in danger of being bypassed if he doesn't play well, which is pretty much the story of MLB (as recent All-Star France can tell you).
  10. PatPfund
    Some of these seemingly hard decisions are going to be super easy in a few weeks when play and injury has sorted some of them out (including possible injury to one of the top 5). But all being equal, I agree with the top five. (I also agree with any statement that Opening Day is relatively meaningless except where it means losing a player.) If Castellano throws well, I think they keep him to start the year and explore a deal with the Phils to give him options if/when the need becomes apparent. Tonkin has a guaranteed contract, and probably is in barring injury or poor performance. They have to waive him, and potentially lose the $1 million spent on him. Varland is being started as a starter, and as such, he likely starts the year at St Paul and if he is converted to the 'pen, I expect that to happen at St Paul as well, before being called up. (If anyone thinks Varland is great right now as an RP, the reality is a lot more mixed. Much like his starts, RP Louis missed bats unless he didn't, and the contacts were pretty loud.) Alcala would be my third, but since he loses options, they may indeed start him in St Paul to keep some short term flexibility. A wild card could appear in camp (like if Canterino starts blowing people away like Duran did a few years ago), and force their way onto the roster. But the Twins have also (for the second year in a row) built a VERY inflexible 'pen with the back end (Tonkin, Alcala soon, Castellano) in keep 'em or lose 'em mode, and the reality is you need a shuttle. So again, things will change quickly after Opening Day (Tonkin DFA'd? Stewart hurt? Castellano sent back/down?), and good arms with more flexibility (Varland? Canterino? Prielipp? Adams?) will make up the 'pen shuttle.
  11. PatPfund
    In '23 Julien came up scratching and clawing for an MLB job. His hitting forced the issue; he was simply to send down after a 'temporary' call-up. And he worked very hard to improve his defense, which did in fact improve from dicey to solid. In '24 Julien looked like a player who had an MLB job, and was letting momentum and time carry him forward. Passivity at the plate. An end to hard work on defense (and a regression there toward butchery). Hopefully the offseason lit some sort of lamp, because '23 Julien was a guy you couldn't keep off the roster, while the '24 version is the type that finds themselves out of baseball quickly. (I'm betting on '23 Edouard.)
  12. PatPfund
    Badly, badly needed correction. You can't teach range, but you can teach where to be in that range, and what to do. Not just "I know" in the head, but "I can and have" in muscle memory through drill. Not every team can afford an Ohtani or Betts, but every team can afford the staff that implements these drills. It is the cheapest way to give yourself a chance in every game; don't give away free outs. (Really sad it took over six years to figure it out, but better late than never.)
  13. PatPfund
    Or they'll be better than last year with a bit more health, because according to the Athletic, Rocco is actually running team conditioning/defensive drills as part of the schedule instead of the previous 6 years of letting the players set their own work in the morning (meaning even if you did do those drills, you didn't do them with your all of your teammates). Part of defense is the skill you are born with it, the other part is the competence that comes with drill, knowing what to do, knowing where your teammates will be, knowing all that from actually doing it. The Rocco-era Twins haven't ever done that, and have often played like it. (Correa praising the new plan sort of confirms for me that last fall's shots at younger players not putting in the work were directed at team management as well as the players.)
  14. PatPfund
    Ryan Pressley was a Rule 5 pick. (Some good years, plus he brought us Gilberto Celestino in a trade. Which might cancel out the good years...)
  15. PatPfund
    It is a key year for another reason; I'm pretty sure this is Varland's last option year for the Twins, so if he starts the year in AAA (very likely), they won't be able to shuttle him next year. I'm not real sold on Louie in either role; good arm, great bulldog mentality, healthy arm (which is huge), pitches not quite good enough. (Thanks to @bean5302 for the data to reinforce my eyeball opinion that Louie is very hit and miss as an RP.) (It cracks me up nobody really talks about the SP who dominated in an RP role in '23. I remember Dusty Baker talking to Rocco, and saying "Paddack. Who knew?") My #1 hope is that he worked on that in the offseason (new pitch? extra velo? more movement?), and can succeed in a starting role, because that is more valuable to the team. (If you doubt me, try to think back to a trade deadline where you DIDN'T want the Twins to get an SP.) My #2 hope is Louie sharpened his stuff enough to warrant an eventual full-time gig in the 'pen. Otherwise he probably is gone in a trade by next year.
  16. PatPfund
    The true battle of training camp! (I'm putting some longer odds fake money on Castellano, but for the team's sake, I'd love for it to be Canterino and Keaschall pushing for the honor.)
  17. PatPfund
    To be fair he has something approaching a 1000 innings as a minor league catcher (though spread over several years). But, yeah. To be realistic, Mickey is 29, and has 18 total innings in MLB (where in 23 plate appearances, he had zero hits and 4 walks). If he makes the Twins out of ST (regardless of position), things have gone deep wrong.
  18. PatPfund
    In 2024, Ober and Lopez started more games, struck out more batters, got more outs in general and were major impacts in more games than Ryan (Lopez pitched 50 more innings; Ober, 43). Ryan was good when he was there, but there was a big stretch where he wasn't. (And FYI, I didn't say any of them was an Ace by some goofy and arbitrary standard, I simply said Lopez and Ober were better. Which they were unless you think individual stat lines are more important than how you affect team success for the season. Though if you want to go that route, Ober and Lopez were both much better than Ryan in 2023 (where Ryan's unfuzzy math ERA was 4.51 while Ober's and Lopez's were both under 3.70, and Lopez was dominant in the playoffs as a true Ace should be).
  19. PatPfund
    Eeles got signed out of indy ball, and I heard the plan was to give him a start in minor league camp (which he's never gone through) with instructors there able to give him more development time, while getting into games on the MLB side to give him that exposure as well. Seems like a solid plan.
  20. PatPfund
    Castellano is the most interesting to me, because of all the Rule 5 intrigue surrounding a live arm. Odds say he is gone, but Rule 5 is how we scored Johan Santana and Ryan Pressley, and that potential will have me watching.
  21. PatPfund
    Love Ryan, and his health/performance is key to our season. But when you build a big chunk of an article about statistical data, "fuzzy" math really isn't acceptable. Baseball's regular season is a 6 month marathon, and picking out premium stretches of one player's year, then comparing that to other players' full seasons (with all the ups and downs) isn't valid methodology. Ace potential is there, but Lopez and Ober have been better over the past two years (number of games pitched matters). If Ryan pushes a (knock on wood) healthy Ober and Lopez in IP this year, I love our playoff chances.
  22. PatPfund
    The contract clearly makes this an extended spring tryout/France-showcase. It is a nice move by the team to give Miranda/Julien competition, and it is a nice move by France to recover from a dreadful season, and zero interest from other teams; a plan WAY better than sitting at home doing nothing. If he hits well, he might earn a temporary spot on the Twins, and if not, other employers can see the turnaround and sign him. But if Miranda looks healthy and is smacking the ball, and Julien is hitting like two years ago (and pretty much every year in pro ball other than '24), then the Twins probably move on from France regardless of how he is playing (while keeping his number handy). Even if he makes the team out of ST, the low pay makes him disposable in-season, or even a possible sell-high trade chip.
  23. PatPfund
    I don't see any way France is guaranteed a spot. If Miranda's back is good, and 2023 Julien shows up to camp, they are locked in at 1B, and France is wearing another uniform or waiting by the phone in April. If Lee's back is healthy, and he is hitting like he did last spring, he's at 2B, and filling in around the infield. I like Martin more than most, but I've never seen him play good stretches of infield either for the Saints or the Twins, but the tools are there to be an excellent OF. He should go to St Paul, get regular at-bats, and just drill on one spot until he masters it. (Everyone is not Castro, and even Castro's D is sub-par when he is moved all over.) The Twins' bullpen is going to have flexibility issues early on, given the number of pitchers either too good, out of options, or Rule 5, so one or more of those will need to go to establish a necessary St Paul shuttle; if not in ST, then early in the season.
  24. PatPfund
    These three players (Coulombe, Hader, France) are all totally different types of deals. Coulombe is a solid MLB pitcher (with a no-run playoff appearance last year) filling a known team deficiency (LH RP), and being paid on a solid deal for the need. Instantly better than any in-house option. Ty France is cheap insurance; with no offers pending, he gets a chance to showcase himself for both the team and MLB while getting a full camp in; the Twins get backup in case Miranda and/or Julien look bad. If the younger players look set, France gets released with little cost (the contract isn't guaranteed unless he makes the team). If one falters badly and France thrives, it is only $1 million (meaning later release is less painful). Hader is just a bad deal, because the cost of his deal (officially $4.75 million, but the team is hooked for another $1.5 million guaranteed if they buy out next year's option) essentially locks his "floor" onto the roster, and represents lost money that will probably restrict whatever roster moves the Twins need to make in-season. Half-price Joey Gallo, extremely expensive Keirsey, Jr.
  25. PatPfund
    The Bader deal was terrible. They already had a great D, probably weak O backup CF in Keirsey, Jr. Try all you want to prove Bader is better in his 30s, but seriously, $8 million better (if you include bonuses)? On a team that has a tight budget? You probably could have added a 160 inning SP like Pivetta or Quintana for that money. Bader is just a worse hitting, more injury prone, almost paid as much, Max Kepler. (And at least Kepler started regularly, which is more than is planned for Bader.) They could also have focused Martin on OF, and had a younger, faster, cheaper, more offensive upside, RH-hitting 4th OF. With the tools to be great defensively if he wasn't being forced into a utility role.
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