PatPfund

To be fair he has something approaching a 1000 innings as a minor league catcher (though spread over several years). But, yeah. To be realistic, Mickey is 29, and has 18 total innings in MLB (where in 23 plate appearances, he had zero hits and 4 walks). If he makes the Twins out of ST (regardless of position), things have gone deep wrong.

In 2024, Ober and Lopez started more games, struck out more batters, got more outs in general and were major impacts in more games than Ryan (Lopez pitched 50 more innings; Ober, 43). Ryan was good when he was there, but there was a big stretch where he wasn't. (And FYI, I didn't say any of them was an Ace by some goofy and arbitrary standard, I simply said Lopez and Ober were better. Which they were unless you think individual stat lines are more important than how you affect team success for the season. Though if you want to go that route, Ober and Lopez were both much better than Ryan in 2023 (where Ryan's unfuzzy math ERA was 4.51 while Ober's and Lopez's were both under 3.70, and Lopez was dominant in the playoffs as a true Ace should be).

Eeles got signed out of indy ball, and I heard the plan was to give him a start in minor league camp (which he's never gone through) with instructors there able to give him more development time, while getting into games on the MLB side to give him that exposure as well. Seems like a solid plan.

Castellano is the most interesting to me, because of all the Rule 5 intrigue surrounding a live arm. Odds say he is gone, but Rule 5 is how we scored Johan Santana and Ryan Pressley, and that potential will have me watching.

Love Ryan, and his health/performance is key to our season. But when you build a big chunk of an article about statistical data, "fuzzy" math really isn't acceptable. Baseball's regular season is a 6 month marathon, and picking out premium stretches of one player's year, then comparing that to other players' full seasons (with all the ups and downs) isn't valid methodology. Ace potential is there, but Lopez and Ober have been better over the past two years (number of games pitched matters). If Ryan pushes a (knock on wood) healthy Ober and Lopez in IP this year, I love our playoff chances.

The contract clearly makes this an extended spring tryout/France-showcase. It is a nice move by the team to give Miranda/Julien competition, and it is a nice move by France to recover from a dreadful season, and zero interest from other teams; a plan WAY better than sitting at home doing nothing. If he hits well, he might earn a temporary spot on the Twins, and if not, other employers can see the turnaround and sign him. But if Miranda looks healthy and is smacking the ball, and Julien is hitting like two years ago (and pretty much every year in pro ball other than '24), then the Twins probably move on from France regardless of how he is playing (while keeping his number handy). Even if he makes the team out of ST, the low pay makes him disposable in-season, or even a possible sell-high trade chip.

I don't see any way France is guaranteed a spot. If Miranda's back is good, and 2023 Julien shows up to camp, they are locked in at 1B, and France is wearing another uniform or waiting by the phone in April. If Lee's back is healthy, and he is hitting like he did last spring, he's at 2B, and filling in around the infield. I like Martin more than most, but I've never seen him play good stretches of infield either for the Saints or the Twins, but the tools are there to be an excellent OF. He should go to St Paul, get regular at-bats, and just drill on one spot until he masters it. (Everyone is not Castro, and even Castro's D is sub-par when he is moved all over.) The Twins' bullpen is going to have flexibility issues early on, given the number of pitchers either too good, out of options, or Rule 5, so one or more of those will need to go to establish a necessary St Paul shuttle; if not in ST, then early in the season.

These three players (Coulombe, Hader, France) are all totally different types of deals. Coulombe is a solid MLB pitcher (with a no-run playoff appearance last year) filling a known team deficiency (LH RP), and being paid on a solid deal for the need. Instantly better than any in-house option. Ty France is cheap insurance; with no offers pending, he gets a chance to showcase himself for both the team and MLB while getting a full camp in; the Twins get backup in case Miranda and/or Julien look bad. If the younger players look set, France gets released with little cost (the contract isn't guaranteed unless he makes the team). If one falters badly and France thrives, it is only $1 million (meaning later release is less painful). Hader is just a bad deal, because the cost of his deal (officially $4.75 million, but the team is hooked for another $1.5 million guaranteed if they buy out next year's option) essentially locks his "floor" onto the roster, and represents lost money that will probably restrict whatever roster moves the Twins need to make in-season. Half-price Joey Gallo, extremely expensive Keirsey, Jr.

The Bader deal was terrible. They already had a great D, probably weak O backup CF in Keirsey, Jr. Try all you want to prove Bader is better in his 30s, but seriously, $8 million better (if you include bonuses)? On a team that has a tight budget? You probably could have added a 160 inning SP like Pivetta or Quintana for that money. Bader is just a worse hitting, more injury prone, almost paid as much, Max Kepler. (And at least Kepler started regularly, which is more than is planned for Bader.) They could also have focused Martin on OF, and had a younger, faster, cheaper, more offensive upside, RH-hitting 4th OF. With the tools to be great defensively if he wasn't being forced into a utility role.

Well, hopefully there is more of a concerted strategy between the manager and FO on in-game strategy, because giving him poor options doesn't really stop Rocco from doing the splits thing. (I remember listening to a KC broadcast last year, and they were chortling about Rocco loading up on opposite-sided hitting against a starter who had reverse splits.) Also, I wouldn't put Martin in the "shown no ability" hitting category; he had a rookie season hitting .253 with a decent eye and an 89 OPS+ in scattered playing time. That is a decent start; it is one of the reason I hate the Bader move (his veteran status means he will get lots of time in the lineup when healthy, and the gross overpay on money make him difficult to cut or trade). Martin bats RH, is faster than Bader and has more upside offensively, would be much better defensively if he could put focus on OF, and gives more roster/payroll flexibility if Rodriguez pushes for MLB time.

There are two reasons why Willi Castro set a record for playing so many games at so many positions. 1) he actually has a fairly rare ability to shift around. 2) His manager loves to shift players all over far beyond the norm. Way beyond the norm. I've always thought Castro was the most likely to get traded, because he actually had a solid season (unlike the other two main salary dump candidates), so there might be outside interest. Maybe the Twins agree with me. (Shocking!) (Probably not wise of them!) Castro at 1B is just ridiculous. I wish Rocco would spend less of his time trying to find new places to move everyone, and start putting a focus on how to build better team defense. (Spoiler alert: it probably means more ST drills, and a LOT less moving people all over the field. Which is why other managers don't do it all the time, and why most teams play better defense than the Twins.)

Slower than Martin, and a worse hitter as a veteran than Martin was as a rookie (while being sporadically mis-used). This was a waste of money, and by mid-season I can already hear the crowd here clamoring to send off prospects for a healthy veteran pitcher like Pivetta or Quintana (who probably could have been signed with this coin). This is THE worst tendency of this front office; frittering away resources on supposed values that just flush money and block the roster. Does Bader have a higher floor than Martin or Keirsey? Maybe, but then again the others have a much higher upside while Bader is past his. If you keep signing players for their floor rather than use those with upside already in your system, you constantly operate with higher costs than you need to, restrict your ability to actually pursue a major acquisition (both by being tapped out and failing to develop your prospects to have real trade value), and you doom your team to mediocrity.

Or they could trade Bader to shed that mistake. (Or more likely Castro, for whom there might actually be a market.)

So... we got a popless, slowing, weak hitter who gets injured a lot to back up our CF (who gets injured a lot). I guess we hope he isn't injured at the same time as Buxton? And that we don't blow a valve watching him flail away in pinch hitting situations? Or wonder how our faster, younger, far-more-upside prospects could do if given the chance? Total waste of money and roster space.

I like the Coulombe deal. This was our one definite need, and they signed a pro on a solid deal. Yeah, he had elbow surgery, but it was for chips not a UCL, and he returned to throw 4 scoreless outings (including one against the Twins). This is so much better than cheaping out and signing once-good players for half-pricing, then ending up with a player much worse than the younger talent you already have. (Gallo, Margot, Jackson, etc.) Signing a $5 million 1B when you have Miranda (the clear starter) just blocks a young player with more upside, and is one we HAVE TO KNOW ABOUT this year. Signing a fading OF to add a RH bat just blocks Martin who brings badly needed speed and batting discipline, and is another player we NEED TO KNOW ABOUT. (We'd know a lot more already if Margot hadn't been here.) Spending cheaply on washed up players compared to paying for ones who are real assets is a false economy, because you end up making the team worse by retaining them (like Margot), or just flush the money away (money that could have been bunched for real impact) when you are forced to release them (like Jackson last year). Short of a trade, this is a fine roster to start the year. Get some answers (Julien bounce-back, Miranda/Correa/Buxton/Lewis/Lee healthy? Emmanuel Rodriguez moving up? Rotation OK?), and then make any adjustments in-season. The Pohlads may not own the team by May, and the new owners may have a bigger budget.

A lot of these questions may be distant memories at the end of Spring Training. If Castellano doesn't look good do the return/trade thing. Anyone gets hurt (like Topa did last year), and there's your opening. Structurally, this is pretty much what the Twins did to themselves last year too, and yep, it means waiving guaranteed contracts you probably shouldn't have given out early (like Jackson last year), because modern bullpens need to have AAA shuttle tickets available. Assuming no injuries I'd waive Cartaya to clear 40-man space (let's get serious, put aside his original prospect status; he's raw defensively, and can't even hit AA pitching; he is a lottery ticket that can't pay off for at least 2 years and will have to come off the 40-man at some point). Varland starts the year as an SP (in AAA). The rest can shake out by injury and performance; if they aren't waived at the end of ST, you can count on multiple arms getting put on waivers to get a working shuttle going during the year. Some will pass through, some won't. That's baseball.

Projections are great offseason fodder, and pretty meaningless once real pitches are thrown and bats swung, and balls chased. Still it is the offseason, and it's nice to have a data-based guess for now. And a reminder that this team actually has a LOT of talent. (My favorite part of the summary is that there is no mention of Mickey Gasper projections!)

There is zero reason to play Lewis at 2B right now. (Last year that started because Santana pushed Miranda off 1B, Miranda was hitting too well to not play, and moving Lewis to 2B freed up the jam without locking that trio to a DH rotation). Nobody at 1B in the current organization has the ability to push Miranda off 1B, meaning there is no need other than rest/DH days for Lewis to come off 3B (and for the first time since before the pandemic, it would be nice to let the young man learn to play through a full season). (If I were thinking another position for Lewis, it would be LF, but only if his knees are stable, and really only after a healthy 2025 is over. Dude needs some stability first.) I get it is offseason, and most everyone looks mainly at last year's, but development isn't always linear; Eddie Julien in particular has been a fairly elite hitter at every level (including his rookie MLB season), and I'd pick him for a big bounce-back. (Even if you want him "traded", you should want that, because if he smells like last year, the difference in a trade versus releasing him will be marginal.) I can see him backing up Lee at 2B, Miranda at 1B, and DHing, but only if he earns his way back onto the MLB roster. Castro can help all over, but I still think he is the most likely to be traded if the Twins make a sizable move. An additional move I'd make with the current roster is to work Larnach out at 1B as a lefty backup to Miranda; that both gives insurance if Julien blows chunk again, and it gives Larnach's dangerous bat a lineup spot beyond DH if/when Rodriguez forces his way to the majors.

Guess baseball is great then! Or... maybe the issue isn't stupid future owners, but a future where a change in economy finds a struggling owner and a franchise made unsellable by huge deferrals on an old/retired player. (Sort of like the current Twins ownership whose financial foundations may have flipped upside down with the collapse of downtown commercial real estate. Where what used to be a gold mine becomes a financial black hole.) And maybe it doesn't matter how payroll matches inflation, but how it matches income. MLB attendance peaked in 2009, and last year's post-pandemic high of 71.3 million is still 8,000,000 lower than the high water mark. Most clubs including the local one are taking serious media revenue hits. At any rate, I look forward to the series!

Looking forward to the series. Deferrals are big (I think Paddack makes three times Ohtani's actual payout this year, and current ownership in LA may be spending a future owner's money). The system probably needs a spending floor as well (some teams are taking shared revenue without using it to be competitive). Plus the media contract mess. (And constantly growing contract spending with the public interest stagnant at best, which is a disconnect that can only go on for so long.)

Like this, because it gives some solid perspective. But... You can't totally discount the lockout year, because several teams DID act early in making deals before the league shuttered transactions. Plus, "top free agents" don't always sign early; ask Bregman about that, or some Boras clients who waited until late, then settled for short contracts with opt-outs. The deadline also fits today's date, but the pressure starts before Feb 1; the Twins essentially scored Carlos Correa twice by waiting (the Boras thing, then after the big spenders backed out, on Carlos's current deal). It is also worth looking around at others playing the game; the Twins COULD have signed Lorenzen last year for roughly Margot money, and they likely win the division if they do (he pitched well was flipped for assets at the trade deadline, and then helped another team in our division make the playoffs).

I guess I don't mind them trying stuff in ST with Sands. (I never liked the idea with Jax, because he's slighter in build, seems prone to wearing down, and doesn't seem wild about it himself; he would know more than anyone how much extra juice came from restricting his innings.) Sands is slightly taller and 25 pounds heavier; maybe he can take the extra load. But... I think the OP undersells the potential drop in velocity; it is likely (based on Sands' past history) to be more like 2-4 mph than 1-2. My recollection of Sands a couple years ago, is that he was best when he got ahead on offspeed/breaking stuff. If he didn't command that, and he had to throw the fastball when the batter could guess that, he got ripped. Take 2-4 off, and I can see that happening again.

Interesting players are all over, but I just don't see the fit here. Our cheap, young left-hitting outfielders had MLB 'OPS+'s of 116 (Larnach) and 149 (Wallner) last year with no sign it was a fluke. We have another lefty OF at AAA who is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. And 104 as a breakout doesn't really cut it at 1B.

Sure, some of this sounds great, but I think offense was hurt more missing Correa for a big chunk of the season, pretty bad seasons from players meant to be key contributors (Julien, Kepler, Margot, and during the collapse Lewis found out slumps do happen while Miranda's back injury left him punchless). The two bigger problems for me are a pitching rotation that was 60% rookie at the end (one of whom was clearly not ready yet), a blown 'pen, and mediocre to bad defense. That last in particular lies at the manager's feet; the lack of fundamentals, the moving of players all over the place, the player comments coming out of the clubhouse in September, Rocco's own clueless non-specific 'Hey we need to play better' comments all speak to a void the manager should be filling. The fact his main answer seems to be diversifying the offense rather than an overall fundamental approach (pitching, defense, then yep a diversified offense) isn't great; if you have to score 5 runs a game to win most days, and your fundamentals are weak, you've got problems hot streaks at the plate can't cure. I'm pretty sure the only thing that kept Rocco from being canned was the pending sale of the team (and a 'let the new owner pick his management' philosophy). Rocco should manage this year as if his job is on the line, because it likely is.

Martin is a symbol of two franchise trends that drive me nuts. 1) 'Hey, let's bring in crappy veterans at the end of their career to block better prospects!' 2) 'Hey' (says Rocco) 'let's move players all over the place sacrificing defense so I can play L/R hitting matchups more often!' A couple years ago, Matt Wallner spent far more time in the minors than he should have, because Joey Gallo was blocking him off the roster. Last year, Martin was flat out better than Margot at almost everything, but getting regular reps, especially regular reps at one position was a lost cause with the need to get Manuel playing time. And now we still have Martin questions. So, yeah, play him a ton of CF, keep him in the OF, and don't sign another crappy roster-blocker. By mid-season we'll know a lot more, and if it doesn't work, OF is one of the cheaper/easier things to fix in-season (hell, the Braves replaced their whole outfield and won the World Series a few years ago).