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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it is interesting how much the Twins roster has changed in just the past few years. RF, LF, and 1B are three "power hitter" positions and we only sort of have that covered with Gallo/Kepler. Kiriloff might become that, but he's not there yet. I don't think that relatively a "2 WAR" player is bad, but those are the positions that tend to be occupied by stronger hitters than we currently have in place. So, compared to the rest of the league, we don't look very good here.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    I have by no means been to every major league ballpark (or city for that matter), but I have been to quite a few. My experience is that fanship at Target Field is definitely among the most "civilized" that I have seen. It's not perfect. . . I'm a realist. . . there are ding dongs all over, but it really is pretty good. I do feel like I have to defend the White Sox fans. I find them to be pretty normal and reasonable people. . . they could be Twins fans. Again, there are a few real ding dongs out there doing really, really dumb stuff so that's not good but that is the exception and not the rule. Unfortunately we all tend to gravitate toward the example of the worst imaginable behavior and assume that it happens all the time. On the other hand, and the other side of town, it is impossible to go to a Cubs game and not experience at least 7 out of 10 of the criteria and sometimes more than that. Insufferable does not even begin to describe the situation, and it is almost always present. Honestly, I have experienced most of these things with Cubs fans without even being at the ballpark. They are a different sort. . .
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    Julien needs to at least begin the year in the minors. It will be better for his long term development. Playing well in spring training is great and useful but let him go down and rake for at least a half year. That will force the issue and be a wonderful problem to have on our hands. THEN, we can figure out who to trade/release (or who is hurt!) to make that happen. I want him to come up and stay up, not be doing the St. Paul shuffle because he can't figure out how to handle major league pitching.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    The beauty of this lineup is that no one in it is completely irreplaceable. If anyone is out, there is an actual (mostly) qualified major league player able to come in and take their place. In addition, there are going to be capable pieces down in St. Paul able to play before we ever get to some of the guys that we threw to the sharks last year at the end of the season. All of this is to say while I don't love injuries, the floor for this group of position players is pretty good. So. . . Polanco - consistency is key Buxton - get the man some AB's Correa - as Correa goes, so will this lineup Miranda - I think there could be big things in store here (Good) Kiriloff - if healthy. Otherwise Solano? maybe bats seventh Gallo - we're going to smile about this signing by the end of the season DH for the day - This will be a committee, so the lineup position will change all the time. Vasquez - it's a good catcher spot, even when Jeffers plays. (Bad) Kepler - If we get good Kepler, he can bat 5th. Nobody is traded. Nobody not on the 40 man roster. Not the 1927 Yankees, but no black holes either.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    Ideally, you would like to have the trade work out for both sides, especially if it is in the other league as in this case. That way, when you want to trade again you have some takers, instead of people who run the other way when you are dangling a trade chip. None of these players (Mahle included) have done nearly enough to declare this trade (and a lot of other ones) a success or a failure. As to the Twins getting fleeced all the time, I'm not sure that's really the case. If it were there would be lots of guys around the league that we would say we desperately want back. Historically, the Twins have made some pretty good trades over the years. Trading Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. . . now there was a fleecing! Let's do that again.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    The problem with trading for a “#1/Ace” starter is that aside from a small number of names (probably less than ten - Johan Santana used to be one of those), you don’t really know what is going to happen and you wind up trading for the player that they were the year before . . . for another team. Pitchers are way too unpredictable and variable to bank on one name to do it all. In most cases, these #1 guys have a year or maybe two where they are that good (see Hughes, Phil and Mazda, Kenya) and are otherwise mortals. As I see it, the Twins have one guy in Gray who is going to be pretty good (but likely not an ace) and pretty predictable, one guy in Mazda who is recovering from injury and is a bit of a wildcard but could also be pretty good,, and three guys in Mahle, Lopez, and Ryan who are definite candidates to break out and be more productive than ever before. I prefer that to trading away half of the farm for a year or two of a guy who was previously really good for another team.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    As a manager, this has got to be the most exciting time for Baldelli. He is comfortably in his role. The team arguably has more talent than he's ever had to work with before. The key leaders are locked up for a few years. Whether that translates into playoff success is a great unknown, but it has to feel good going into the year like this. I don't think he's remotely on the hot seat either, nor should he be, but this really could be a time to create a legacy as manager of the Twins. Best of luck to you Rocco!
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    Managing his workload will be the key. Obviously we'll be very happy if he gets to 120-150 innings with a reasonable ERA. For starter #5, that's pretty impressive and a lot better than anything that we have gotten from that spot the past few years (decades?). Somewhere along the way, he's going to need a break and a few skipped starts in order to limit his innings (assuming no setbacks/injuries). That will also be a great time to see what some of the starters down at AAA have to offer.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    In the short term, it would appear that Cleveland is our rival for the division, but don't count out Chicago. They could easily surprise if their young talent stays healthy. I've always felt that Chicago is the more traditional rivalry even though it doesn't really inspire the kind of other team hatred that is prevalent in other rivalries. As someone who lives in the Chicago area, I go to Twins/Sox games every year wearing my Twins jerseys and usually wind up in a really positive discussion with a random Sox fan about the teams this year. They are largely just real baseball fans who even cheer for the other team when something good happens. I guess most of the nastiness gets tied up on the other side of town for the Cubs and Cardinals.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Thanks for an excellent breakdown. If he can maintain his late season numbers, Moran will indeed be extremely valuable and also be insurance in case there is any fall off from Theilbar from the left side. There are always plenty of innings to be taken care of by the bullpen so we’re going to need many good pitchers to step up and maintain consistency.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Oops! Oh yeah. Forgot about that!
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    Thanks for the update. My preference is generally for printed words but the little videos are a nice changeup from the usual fare. I would prefer some other background than walking around the outside of the stadium . . . maybe turn around and make a video with the game in the background? The Larnach injury could be concerning (or not, as they don't tell you the severity or nature of the injury). Hopefully it is nothing serious and he'll be back at it in a day or two.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    It seems like Cavaco and Sabato are already toast -- no reports of injuries, but no good production either. They would both seem to be on thin ice. I think Larnach still has a great deal of hope. When he has been healthy for brief periods Larnach has hit well and been a solid defender. Labeling him a bust is certainly premature, and if he doesn't make it because of injuries, that's not on the draft evaluators.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    First of all I think that Ohtani is an excellent pitcher. He was very good two years ago and excellent last year. I don't know if that makes him what people on the boards are calling a "true ace" or not -- 160 innings of 2.33 pitching in his very best year. $32M per year? Not sure. He's definitely not the workhorse that Justin Verlander is. As for a DH, again he is very good. $27M per year good for a pure DH? Also not so sure that's the going rate, and combining the two of those salaries puts it way too far over the top to be worthwhile. Someone may pay the man, but just because you can doesn't mean you should. Let someone else write that check.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm joining the optimistic homer crowd with 90-95 wins as well. Although I think the offense may struggle a bit from time to time, having five or six good to excellent starters is a dramatic uptick from having maybe two at the beginning of last year and combined with improved defense will make up for the difference. Go Twins!
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is indeed encouraging for both of these pitchers. I am especially excited by Ryan continuing to develop (on the fly, in the majors!) into a better and better pitcher. He kind of strikes (pun intended) me as being particularly cerebral about his pitching, so I agree, with more pitches to go with his crazy good/deceptive fastball, he becomes a stud!
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that prospect lists are pretty nice to know who the younger level “up and comers” are, but I think that once they get close to (or in) the majors, a difference of a few ticks in prospect ranking doesn’t really mean much if anything. At that point, it can be all about fit on a team or opportunity in the right circumstances. Those reasons along with health are probably why this prospect list is higher on Steer than Lewis. I think the long term outlook probably favors Lewis, but in the short term, Steer may be a better bet for a good season this year.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    Exactly. If the shift wasn’t taking away home runs, it would be foolish to think that not having the shift would restore Kepler’s home run power. That will require something more.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    Wow! Nice digging for some unexpected information. A few more batting average points for Buxton would be awesome. Let’s hope that happens!
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    I believe I said that. I was cautioning those who may think that getting rid of the shift would magically return Kepler to 2019.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that just having less defenders in the way of the ball will give them a little better batting average. . . maybe 20 points or so, but I think Kepler's issues run deeper than that. The last couple of years when we all complained about Miguel Sano's excessive strikeouts, Kepler was essentially doing the same thing with weak contact and easy ground balls and the shift wasn't taking away any home runs. Joey Gallo we know less about, so I'm not as confident with the predictions. It would be amazing if we could get him back to vintage Gallo with lots of strikeouts but lots of run producing as well, but I would be exceedingly happy (as would the Twins) with a return to the "pretty good" Joey Gallo of a couple of years ago. That would be a fine addition to the lineup.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    I see two possible outcomes here, and maybe that is a fine thing for the Twins no matter which. Either A) this is the wakeup call he needs and this will focus his efforts so his career doesn't simply go away, so he becomes a solid prospect pitcher again, or B) this is symptomatic of the coming complete implosion and he's done. It's possible that a lack of focus like this is what led to all of the issues he's had. After a couple of years of waiting to see what will happen with him, a solid answer is a good thing, even if it goes the way that we don't want it to go.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    If we hadn't suffered through June, July, and August last year watching him implode, we would likely be pleased that they had "taken a flyer" on this Pagan fellow, who has had some success in the past and seems to have good stuff with a little turnaround at the end of the sason. This sort of stuff happens all the time to the Twins and other teams with relief pitchers. I say give him another shot, but this time let him build up his value from the bottom of the pecking order so he can gain some confidence and hopefully work his way into being a high leverage guy by the end of the season. If that happens, we'll all be here talking about how smart is was to hang onto him.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    Honestly, it would be fine if these were the guys that were outperforming the projections, but it really doesn't matter where the production comes from. A Cy Youngish season from one of the pitchers (Lopez? Gray? Ryan?) or a big offensive season from one of the hitters (a 140 game season from Buxton, Kepler remembers how to hit the ball?) would have a big impact on the team's overall chances. These four just seem like guys who could likely be poised to outperform, or maybe we just don't want them to be as bad as their projections. I will say however, that this might be Larnach's (and maybe Kiriloff's) last shot if they want to stay in the mix for playing time. If we hadn't seen such flashes of potential in the minors, we wouldn't be continuing to give them more opportunities this year.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    I like it. That puts all five of the pitchers in our projected starting rotation in the top 80 pitchers of MLB. Maybe our #1 starter isn't Cy Young, but having all five to be projected in the top 50% is pretty awesome. As much as Pecota was maybe a little bearish on the offense, it seems to be bullish about the starters (and the relievers look pretty good also). I'm going to avoid getting too excited about this in the same way that I avoided getting too depressed about the offense. Let's play baseball!
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