LA Vikes Fan

Agreed. Part of Correa's timing may have to do with him watching what else the Twins do in the offseason. He's going to get paid wherever he goes. He may like the Twins, but why go back to a 78 win team that won 73 the year before unless you think they've made themselves better? I think a part of what's keeping things slow is Correa waiting to see what else the team does. They've made room at 3B for his protégé Miranda. Can they sign a Rodon or trade for a Lopez type? Is there another Catcher or some relief help on the way? Correa will be signing a 7-10 year deal. Even with opt outs, he's probably committed to a team for at least the next 3-4 years. The next 3-4 years are his prime years as a player. He's going to want to know that he's going to a team that will be a contender more often than not. If I'm him, I would wait to see what the Twins do before deciding even if I'm interested. If the Twins can't wait and pivot to Bogaerts, so be it. Better than signing a long term deal with a team that doesn't put the assets around him to contend and playing out multiple 70-80 win seasons. I think the better strategy is for the Twins to sign or trade for that needed Starting Pitcher first as part of convincing Correa or Bogaerts to seriously consider coming to Minnesota.

I agree and I think the trade was a good gamble. There are no guarantees in trades and what we gave up was never going to be enough to get someone without risk. To me, this is the kind of thing that mid-market teams do to try to improve. I supported the trade then and I still support it now.

I like the contract structure and couldn't agree more on the intent - this would have to be a stepping stone as PART of team building, not the end all and be all of that effort. The Twins still badly need a LH catcher, a quality starter, and a RH OF. To pull all of this off, we probably had to trade Urshela's salary, probably need to say goodbye to Kepler and maybe Polanco (hope not on Polanco), and may need to trade Farmer if we can sign Correa although I think Farmer is the perfect utility infielder for this team. Even at $160 million payroll the only way this works is to have a team of star(s) and Young guys who are still cost controlled. Sign Correa to this kind of a deal, sign Rodon or Bassitt, sign Hanigar, sign Navaez, and find a reliever. This probably gets you to about $165m and should give us a competitive team in the make the playoffs and make some noise sense. BTW, I do think the opt outs make sense and I think they are necessary to entice a guy like Correa. He can get 275-325m from 4 or 5 different teams. He'll go where he thinks he can be well paid AND win. The opt outs give him security and put pressure on the Twins to stay competitive so he'll stick around. Good structure.

True that and it points out an issue that the Twins have to deal with. Who is that workhorse? 150 innings a year is the best we can realistically hope for from Sonny Gray and we will probably get less. Same is true for a Maeda coming off injury, Ober coming off a shortened season due to injury, Mahle coming off shoulder issues, and Winder's track record suggests he won't last more than 125 if he's a starter. That leaves Joe Ryan who I think can give us 160-175 innings in the projected starting 5. So maybe we don't "need" a workhorse and maybe baseball has gotten away from that model. It would be great to have one but most teams don't. So what do you do? You fill the AAA rotation with guys who can start when the inevitable need arises. We actually have some depth with Varland, SWR, and even Dobnak (remember him?) but not enough. Not enough; we need more.

I agree. That would be 2 years (2023 and 2024) at around $32m. I can see a deal at 3 years, $36-$40m kicking in at 2023.

I'll add to the chorus - Haniger, Bell or Nimmo are the best options. Nimmo seems likely to stay with the Mets and Haniger with Seattle. I do kind of like Josh Bell. He's a switch hitter, and can play some decent 1B. He is streaky and more of a doubles power type than a HR hitter. At 3 years, $45m he should fit the budget without impacting the return of Correa.

My bad, I missed that. Seems like a light package for Lopez. Having said that, I would make the deal if Miami was interested. Maybe trade out Sands for Varland (baseball trade values has them close with Sands slightly more valuable). Or, if we need to, substitute Winder (much more valuable) and get Miami to throw in a catching prospect? I like Miranda and think he will be an above average but not All Star caliber hitter for the next 10 years. He also plays a position that could be manned by Lewis or Lee in the next year or two. He is exactly the kind of guy we will need to trade to get a Lopez level starter. It's worth it to me.

I'm right there with you and I think you have named the two guys to go after - Fullmer and Rogers. We "should" be able to get both for $12m or less. That leaves enough for Correa and a catcher like Navaez. Trade Kepler for prospects. IF you can get Chris Bassitt, also trade Urshela for prospects and turn 3B over to Miranda, leaving 1B for Arraez and Kirilloff. Now you have your Basitt money. All that leaves in my mind is how to get a RH OF/1B/DH to put in the middle of the lineup. That would then require either raising the payroll (nice thought) or trading prospects (probably at least one pitcher) for that bat. Both are eminently doable. I like Josh Bell or Trey Mancini for the RH hitter role.

I like these ideas. None of these 3 are likely to be lights out back end guys but each could provide some critical mid level depth. I would like to see them re-sign Fullmer for 2 years like you have it, and would actually give Rogers a little more if necessary, maybe 1/$7 with an option at 1/$9. He is left handed and breathing with some track record so he may be popular. May is a bigger risk so I would only sign him to the kind of incentive based deal that you mention.

Interesting. What happened to Miranda? Back at AAA?

Hey, I'm with you on that. Here's a thought, sign Vasquez - 3 years 27m (9 per), Bogaerts - 7 years 196m (28 per), Chri1sBassitt - 4 years 72m (18 per).

You're right about that. My bad. I made the change to Taylor, not Trevor. hey, tomato, tomato...

This is a tough exercise. There just isn't any way to adequately fill all of our needs at SS, SP, RP, C, OF and stay within a 140m budget. So I didn't. I'm a little over with a 2 players who could be dropped to get to $140m. Here's what I did: SS - Sadly said goodbye to Correa and instead signed Xander Bogaerts to a 7 year, $196m deal - $28m a year. SP - Got priced out on Rodon and signed Chris Bassitt instead to a 4 year, $72M deal - $18m a year. Would have him #1 and move Gray and Mahle down. BP- Moved Maeda to the BP but kept his $9m assumed cost, could be lower given his contract. See the Twins re-signing him to a 3 year deal with some extra money to convince him to go to the BP full time. Re-signed Fullmer for $3,m. Added back our old friend Taylor Rogers at $7m on a 3 year, $21m deal. Both Maeda and Rogers may come in cheaper than where I have them. C- Got priced out of Vasquez, signed Navaez for 2 years, $12m. Would rather have Vasquez if he could be had for 6-7m instead of the 8.5-10m I think he'll get. Trades - Had to make payroll room so I traded Urshela and Kepler for prospects. Moved Miranda to 3B, with Kiriloff/Larnach/Gordon to RF/LF, Except.... OF/DH - Signed Trey Mancini to a 2 year $20m deal to be a LF/DH. Would love that player to be Josh Bell as a 1B/DH but he's probably too expensive. Also brought up Martin as a UTL but that could be a number of different guys. Just don't want it to be Garlick again. Mancini is the guy I could lose to get down to a $140m budget. I think we need a RH hitting power guy to hit 4th or 5th so really want to keep one of them. Would prefer to lose Rogers and have Sands or Henriquez fill that spot in the bullpen or sign a deal with Maeda to lower his 2023 cost. ? Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Mranda ($0.70M) SS: Xander Bogearts ($28.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Trey Mancini ($10.00M) 4th OF: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M) Backup ? Omar Navaez ($6.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Chris Bassitt ($18.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Baily Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Michael Fullmer ($3.00M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($7.00M) Payroll is 1.20% over budget

Here's a good 4th reason - Jeffers is the best we got and there isn't anyone else out there who isn't going to cost a lot in prospects. Sean Murphy? I'd love to get him but the cost starts with Lewis or Lee PLUS a quality pitching prospect. Contreras? It's him OR Correa, not both, I'd rather have Correa. Here's my thought - Christian Vasquez. Great concept but probably 8-9m a year for multiple years. Tough for a 32 year old catcher. Might even be more and will he leave Houston after winning the World Series for a team that won 78 games a year ago? If he would, we could fit him in AND get Correa and maybe Rodon, but only if if we traded Kepler and Urshela for prospects to free up salary room. Maybe that works because we have Miranda and Larnach/Kirilloff/Gordon to play their spots. To me, there are 2 good choices. Choice 1 - get Vasquez, move Urshela to 3B and Larnach or Gordon to RF, trade Kepler and Urshela, sign Corrrea and Rodon. Choice 2 - go with Jeffers, sign one of the usual suspects (Navaez, Barnhardt, Leon), trade Urshela and/or Kepler, sign Correa and Rodon, sign a quality relief pitcher (Robertson?). Likely Twins move - sign Navaez, keep Kepler and Urshela, sign Elvis Andrus to play SS, sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Michael Wacha, or Tijuan Walker as a SP, roll with the bullpen as is.

$75m is definitely enough to get somebody's attention.

I agree that the current payroll can handle one large contract fairly comfortably. The real question is to me, is that one contract for a pitcher, a shortstop, or can we afford both? I think a pitcher gives you more value but higher injury risk, and the drop off from the top pitchers to the next level is pretty steep. I think we can afford both as long as one of the contracts is in the $35 million year range and one of the $20 million a year range or some combination that adds up to $50 – $55 million. Dump Kepler and that goes up $5m-$8.5m. Maybe Correa and Bassitt? Bogearts and Rodon? Correa and Rodon with no Kepler and no Urshela? I vote for signing Correa long term now, trading Kepler for prospects to free up another $8.5m, keeping Urshela, and spending the other $20-$30m million on a combination of Bassitt, David Robertson or Corey Kenebel, and Christian Vasquez. That may be more than we've got to spend but a guy can dream right?. Will be fascinating to see.

Just an FYI on how state income taxes work for pro athletes, entertainers, etc., people who put on "shows" in various states. Each game is a game check and you pay taxes in the state in which that game check is earned. So, Corey Seager still pays California income tax, the difference is that he pays it only on California source income, i.e, the prorated portion of his compensation earned when the Rangers play in the state. These guys all file 20-30 state tax returns every year to account for the income they earn by playing or appearing in states with an income tax. So, the lack of a Texas state income tax is a real difference but it's not like it's a tax vs. non tax difference. The worst place to play for income tax purposes is New York City. There, you pay New York City income tax (3-4%) as well state and federal income taxes. Still, if you want to be a star you gotta play in NY and LA . . .

I like this, except I think both guys will get more from somebody else. I would be fine with making these offers and moving on if not accepted. I think the more likely route is a trade for someone like Lopez in Miami or Merrill Kelly in Arizona. Interestingly, both are roughly .500/high 3s ERA pitchers in their careers although both were good last year. There isn't a lot out there that beats that Sonny Gray threshold. Bottom line, it seems to me very unlikely that the Twins are going to sign a high end SP, and a 50/50 shot at best that they will trade for one. I expect us to go into 2023 with the same group.

This take makes sense to me. I think Polanco is the Plan B at SS if we can't re-sign Correa. If we did trade him, I think Gordon is the replacement if his hitting last year wasn't a flash in the pan. Arraez is not a great replacement given his defensive and injury issues and both Martin and Julien are at least a year away. Plus, Polanco is one of our 3-4 best hitters so there's a real offensive downgrade with replacing him. I doubt if we trade him. There is one scenario where I do think trading Polanco makes sense - if we re-sign Correa and want to free up money to also add a quality starting pitcher, everyday RH hitting OF, LH hitting catcher, or back end bullpen piece. We need a SS, higher end starter, LH hitting catcher, and a closer (if we put Duran in the rotation). I could see them re-signing Correa, trading Polanco to free up $$ in a package him with someone like Larnach and a prospect for a good starter and good BP guy, RH OF or catcher, and using the $$ to fill one of the other holes. Gordon starts out at 2B with some Arraez there also, and Lewis becomes the 2B at mid-season. Easier transition for him. This is probably more than the FO is willing to consider but does offer a way to fill some holes.

Any metrics available out there on whether Urshela has the range to cover SS? I have to admit I kind if shudder a little at the thought of a left side of the infield with Urshela and Miranda. Seems like a defensive nightmare waiting to happen. Urshela paired with a strong defensive 3B might work but I don't think we have that guy. I think we are at least one cycle away from fixing the SS revolving door and that's if Lewis is the answer. If he isn't, we're farther away. I say offer Correa $35-37m a year for 7-8 years. If he declines that offer, the likely result, sign Elvis Andrus and commit to Lewis as the starting SS when's physically ready. Use the money for pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Sign at least Rondon and Fullmer, and then trade one of the young starting prospects plus Larnach for a good young RH hitting OF. Maybe Larnach and Ober to the Pirates for Reynolds? Slight underpay by the Twins so maybe we add Sabato or Noah Miller? In short, I'm hoping for one of 2 things given our real budget issues (1) a combination of moves that gets us a real SP to head the rotation, a good bullpen piece, plus a trade for a young, good hitting RH OF bat, and Lewis playing SS every day by mid-July. That's the deal above. (2) Sign Correa AND a good SP like Rondon, live with the heavily LH OF we have until Lewis is ready and then make him the LF to balance the lineup.

I think you're spot on with what will probably happen in terms of an offer. My guess is that he turns it down, signs for 8-10 years at 340m, and that the placeholder is Elvis Andrus on a 1 yr/6-8m deal.

I would love to see the Twins make Kepler the 4th OF and play him in CF when Buxton is out or DHs. Unfortunately, I don't think Rocco will do that. He didn't play Kepler in CF when he should have this year, and he trotted out Kepler almost every day until he was hurt even though his offense was hurting the team. He even hit Kepler in the middle of the order long after it became clear that he was at best at number 7 or 8 hitter. I would like to see them trade Kepler because if they don't I think this FO/manager combo will play him as a regular. He just isn't a regular on a good team. Larnach, Kirilloff (if healthy), Wallner, Gordon (if not the SS), and any RH bat they can acquire should all start ahead of him. Not because we know they will be better in the case of everyone except Gordon who is better if he's the 2022 version, but because they have the potential to be better and need the shot to play. Kepler is what he is at age 30 and what he is on a good team is the 4th OF who plays CF and the corners. I just don't trust this team to play him that way so I would prefer he was traded for whatever level prospect we can get.

I agree here with only 2 comments. First, assuming they don't re-sign Correa and think Lewis can play SS when he gets back, I am completely against signing a fill-in placeholder type to play SS. That fills a roster spot and does little for you other than slightly improve the defense over a combination of Gordon, Polanco and Palacios. Give Gordon first crack at the spot and tell him that NOW so he can work on his fielding over the winter. It's a win-win on both sides if he can be even a little below average at the spot. Second, I love your idea of a RH hitting corner OF and trading Kepler. I just am not a big fan of Tommy Pham at 34 years old. I might think about AJ Pollock (also 34) Trey Mancini, or Mitch Hanigar. Maybe even Martin or Prato can make the jump from AA. Otherwise, good plan.

Lot of good comments here about the roster for next year. Obviously, the key is Correa. Keep him AND add a quality SP - either a FA like Rondon or trade corner OF and pitching prospect to Miami for Lopez (or something similar) - and I think you can run the same group back with Winder or Sands as a long man in the BP instead of Megill. No Correa and Polanco and Gordon play SS and 2B and we better get Rondon and Benintendi/Josh Bell. Just so much uncertainty going into 2023. Is Larnach the quality hitter we've seen in stretches or the easy out we've also seen? Will Kirilloff ever play at the MLB level again and, if he does, will the wrist injuries sap all of his power? Are Miranda and Gordon the 2022 versions again or do they get better or fall off? The rotation actually looks fairly solid 2-5 but where do we get a #1 starter? The back end of the BP is pretty good, what about those 5-8 spots? 2022 was supposed to help answer those questions but instead has lead to even more uncertainty. The 2023 Twins look like a lot of Twins teams in the past - about 2/3 to 3/4 of a contending team with the big holes in the most crucial spots, we're short a #1 starter and one middle of the order bat. And that's with Correa coming back. With him gone we are closer to 1/2 to 2/3 of a contending team because now we're short 2 middle of the order bats on a team that was mediocre to poor offensively to start out with. Plan? Add a top end starter (Rondon, Lopez, someone similar) and a middle of the order bat (Benintendi, Bell, someone similar). If Correa leaves, don't pick up a defense first lousy mediocre vet like Iglesias, play Polanco or Gordon and live with the defensive downgrade for the offensive upgrade. Trade, release, do something so that Pagan and Kepler are not on the team next year. Current management cannot be trusted to only use either as a bench/spot player. Find a spot to play Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff (if healthy) every day for a least the first half of the season to see if they can play. Put Maeda in the BP to start, re-sign Taylor Rogers, and leave Gray, Ryan, Mahle, and Ober in the rotation with SWR, Varland, and Winder as backups. See if that works through the 2023 ASB. If it doesn't, blow it up. Trade our vets and play only the young guys. Move on.

This sounds right to me. I see 2023 as running out the same guys and seeing if we get better health and thus a better result. IF we have better health, this team could "contend" if that means being in contention for the division title or a playoff berth but not really having much hope of a deep playoff run. With the guys you have if they are all healthy we have a solid rotation missing a number one starter, about two thirds of a good bullpen with quality at the top end but lacking depth, and a pretty good lineup missing one quality middle of the order bat if we keep Correa, two if he goes. That probably is good enough to contend in that division and, if it isn't, we'll probably know about midseason and can make trades and embark on a rebuild. While I would love to see the Twins sign Correa, plus a true number one starter and a middle of the order bat, I think that is a fantasy. My prediction is that they actually sign Correa to a 5-7 year deal and do basically nothing else other than maybe signing Sonny Gray for another two or three years, both with at most limited no – trade protection. The pitch is then "look at us, we re-signed Buxton and now re-signed Correa, we are on our way to contention". They then see how it plays out and make the decision on where to go midseason with both trying to contend and a tear down and rebuild on the table. If it works, great, if not they trade most of the veterans they have including Correa and Gray and start a full rebuild.