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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Great, another season with mixing up the batting order and positions every game. Maybe it’s an old school thought, but there might be something to be said about showing up at the park every day knowing where you are going to bat and what position you are going to play. I guess it might be a necessity when you don’t have players who are a good fit for a particular spot in the order or field……
  2. Nashvilletwin
    I love all the posters suggesting Gordon and Julien (and I’m one of those); meanwhile, according to some recent articles on the TD, Gordon will be a utility outfielder (playing behind Gallo, Kepler and Larnach in the corner spots and behind Taylor as backup CF) and Julien may not even make his big league debut this season.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Agree, if the proposed list above is it, we will have lots of solid prospects clamouring to get traded. Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Celestino - these guys need to play too to see what we’ve got.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    And so much has to go right, right? Buxton has to play and produce, Gallo needs a rebound year, Polanco needs a rebound year, Kiriloff has to be healthy and produce, Miranda’s production is not set in stone, etc. etc. And we pretty much know the best we can expect from Kepler, Farmer, Vasquez, and Taylor - and that is unexciting (although all are very solid defenders). We got rid of two of our three best hitters (not counting Buxton if he only plays half the games) and replaced them with meh, at best.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    This is going to be a light hitting team and boring to watch at the plate. Just too many ifs for there to be confidence in this lineup. The notion that Gallo would be considered our lead off batter is just so laughable. But there has to be virtually no confidence that he can be a run producer later in the lineup, so who knows. My vote is Gordon or Buxton.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    “Joey Gallo will play a lot of 1B early as Alex Kiriloff is worked back in”. Talk about waking up to a day killer comment….. Re Max, he’s one of my favorites and I’ve cheered hard for him. He makes the occasional great play in the field, but otherwise he’s now a complete snooze fest at the plate. With Taylor and Gallo, his skill base, especially given his cost, is pretty much redundant. There is no reason to turn on the game or show up at the park to watch Max. He will/should be moved and the capital redeployed into the pen. If not, it will be an off-season failure for the FO. Boy, Buxton better play a lot of CF this year and be good doing it - otherwise, we will probably have the lightest hitting OF in the majors.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Great, thoughtful post with solid insights. Much appreciated.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Lewis still projects as a SS, no?
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Thanks.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Agree Ted. In Minnesota, “butts in the seats” is more a function of winning than in a lot of/most other markets. So winning trumps everything. Having said that, losing with a boring team…..well that is the worst possible scenario. If the Twins don’t compete, Lopez, no matter how he pitches, cannot save kick save attendance from the likes of Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Farmer and an out-of-the-lineup Buxton. As they say, “you pay your money, and you take your chances”.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Nor Sands, for that matter. If you are of the opinion, like that of many scouting reports, that Lee, Salas, and Martin will never play SS in the majors, then Tanner Schobel (overall #13 ?) is our second highest ranked SS prospect. I admit I don’t know much about him - wasn’t he the substitute teacher in School of Rock?
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Yes - a very possible hypothesis. IMHO, the dogged effort to acquire Lopez, who apparently was the best starter available across the league for the best proven major leaguer position player on the Twins we could trade (Correa and Buxton were not possibilities), was a function of a) injury/production concerns re Mahle, Maeda, and possibly Ober and b) the growing likelihood that none of Mahle, Maeda or Gray would be resigned (for whatever reasons), thereby leaving the rotation needing to be restocked in ‘24. As an aside, I have the under on a combined 375 innings from Mahle, Maeda and Gray this season. If you believe that, acquiring a guy who thru 180 innings last year makes a lot of sense. Btw, I also have the under on 180 innings from Lopez in ‘23 or ‘24. I know, I know, I’m such a Debbie Downer. The Kiriloff side of this hypothesis is way less relevant. Kiriloff, does not just have experimental surgery risk - he also has a lot of “is he actually any good” risk too. So, for him to be a even remotely a good replacement for Arraez, he has to be both healthy and consistently productive (which he has really never been). If not, the type of production expected by Kiriloff at 1B can be on the margin more easily replaced by several players (after all, as we learned from Money Ball, anyone can play 1B, lol).
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Don’t sleep on Martin. Until we see another year or even two out of Salas, Martin > Salas at the moment. That could obviously change this year, but Martin’s strongish second half and raking in the AFL, gives his ranking a boost coming into this year. Once you’ve fallen, it’s hard to move back up, but Martin merits that type of consideration..
  14. Nashvilletwin
    The truth is that virtually any championship calibre team will be comprised of both home grown talent and acquired players (trades or FA). However, smaller market teams - like the Twins - benefit more on the margin by developing more of their own cheaper, controllable talent as opposed to having to go out and fill a lot of holes with more expensive, shorter contract players (again, via trades or FA). This current rotation has been filled via trades and the result is more proven players but with very limited control. This approach for a team like the Twins is too skewed probably on an ongoing longer-term basis than would be ideal (or likely even sustainable). But it has been done at a reasonable cost for the most part, provided we get the performance out of these players we expect (and that is far from certain). The trick will be to see how many of the up and comers can get prepared to be quality, cheap, controllable rotation pieces in ‘24 and beyond (essentially behind Lopez, Ryan and any of Mahle, Gray or Maeda we choose to/are able to extend). Then we can get back to a little more balance in the model.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more. The rotation is better. And Correa is better. But that may be it. Just keeping it real. Unless Buxton stays healthy and goes off, we probably have the lightest hitting OF in the majors. Correa cannot make up for a declining Polanco and yet to be dependable Miranda and Kiriloff. Catcher is a good mix and should neither a plus or minus by much either way (but no at the plate production like Garv Sauce). DH? Please - we likely will be bottom 25% of the league in terms of production. Nelson ruled. If healthy, the rotation is deep and should be what carries this team. We shall see about the BP, but hopefully Duran and Alcala improve, but I’m worried about Jax and Lopez regression. In 2019, Rocco’s weaknesses were hidden by the long ball. He will not have that luxury at all this year when manufacturing runs and playing good fundamentals will be at the forefront. Not even a close comparison….
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Don't forget Ober, Winder, SWR, and Varland. I’m sure we are missing a few as well. But, you are correct. They 100% “are focused on determining their own future”. And many of them would welcome with open arms a trade where they might get more opportunity. All I’m saying is that the queue is long and growing and many of them realise they might/probably have a better chance to prove themselves outside the Twins organization. Moving Arraez helps the infield log jam a bit. Trading for Lopez and Taylor, signing Gallo, and keeping Kepler do not. At some point, the kids need innings.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Overall, a middling lineup with all hopes for a playoff berth based on the rotation. Unless Buxton is playing and hitting, this might be the weakest offensive outfield in the league (but great defensively). Gordon might be the only player to hit above .230. The infield is relying on two young players (one who is oft injured and, when not, only occasionally rakes and the other who is at best middle of the road defensively and fell off quite dramatically at the plate after a hot stretch last season) - and a veteran coming off his worst season in years. Catching will be so so more or less. Rotation looks solid, particularly if Mahle, Gray, Lopez, and Maeda can stay healthy (but has the depth). The bullpen is pretty much a run back from last year. The coaching staff hasn’t been upgraded either - we will see if they get better in getting more out of our fundamentals, base running and in-game tactics than last year. On a side note, I’d really hate being a top prospect in the Twins organization at the moment. Ageing vets (Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, even Polanco) seems to be a core strategy. There are lots of players - both positional and on the bump - lining up for a shot. There’s a decent chance you will just get stashed until you start to age out of the sweet spot of getting majors experience. Then when you do get a chance, you are under team control long enough you might only get one bite at the big money deal. I’m sure there is a ton of frustration right now among some of the prospects banging at the door.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s check in at the end of the year. I hope I’m wrong on all of them (except I hope Arraez makes the NL all star team).
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Nope, just what I’ve read. One sight had him #7 on the Marlins’ prospect list and I think MLB slotted him behind Martin on our pro forma list. A SS prospect initially, but who some now question if he can even stay in the infield. He’s a plus batter who’s overall performance seemed to drop last season. None of that is unusual for a young player. We’ve seen that summary for a lot of prospects. He may turn out great. I just don’t rate him yet as highly as others. Hope I’m wrong.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    We shall see……
  21. Nashvilletwin
    We don’t really know how this trade will work out. Clearly one team valued a particular skill base more than another and vice versa. Lots of outcomes are certainly possible. But let me offer a few wagers: 1. Lopez pitches over 150 innings in either ‘23 or ‘24. 2. Salas progresses as a prospect and is a top 100 prospect at the end of ‘23 on anyone’s list? 3. Arraez’s OBP, BA, and BARISP are better than any Twins player in ‘23? 4. Kiriloff hits over 20 HRs and .250 and plays in over 100 games? 5. Arraez is an all star in ‘23, the Twins have no position player all stars, and Arraez’s defensive ranking at 2B is better than Polancos? My side in each: no, no, yes, no, and yes. We all have our opinions. Mine, albeit quite unpopular and in the vast minority, are that Arraez hasn’t peaked yet, Lopez has, and Salas is falling as a prospect and will never play a single inning of SS (maybe not even 2B) in the majors. It’s actually Miami that actually sold high. We shall see.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Disagree, I’ve seen Salas ranked #7 on the Marlins prospect list and MLB currently slots him in behind Martin on our list. I’ve also read plenty that he doesn’t have the lateral range to be a SS and some even question his ability to play 2B. Who knows, adding Chourio might have been like that scene from Money Ball. We can debate Lopez injury risk vs. Arraez’s. But Arraez was the second best position player on the Twins behind Correa (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). He has a decidedly differentiated skill base at the plate than any other player on this team - by a lot. He’s only 25 and there is no way you can hypothesise that he’s peaked. The risk on Lopez having peaked is likely higher at 27. Arm issues for a pitcher exceed knee issues for a hitter. So many people are just assuming this a slam dunk, “we fleeced the Marlins” deal. It’s just my opinion that it is not that simple. But then again, we all need to live by the bible of Fangraphs.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    But his knees, right? Lol.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    This is the truth - Lopez protects the Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy for ‘23 and is the hedge on the ‘24 rotation when none of them are resigned (for whatever reason - pay demands, injury, plain old stink).
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