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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Without a division title and at least a playoff win, Rocco needs to demonstrate the ability to develop the young talent he is provided in order to remain in his position. 2024 is likely going to be a year when a number of our top prospects are finally going to graduate to the Bigs. Getting this young talent to continually improve is a key, if not the key, to the Twins having a genuine open window for several years.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Saw that Hoffman was granted his release and Coulombe was actually traded to the O’s for “cash considerations”
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Geez, another head scratcher. Coulombe, Hoffman, Sands, Pagan is probably the correct order of projected value to the Twins this season. Guess which two made the team and which two we will lose to other clubs.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    I love the attitude as well - primarily because Gray is publicly acknowledging and accepting on behalf of the starting staff what the FO’s strategy is this year: namely, this team is designed to live or die based on the starters. Gray is basically saying to the FO and Rocco: “You know and we know how this team is built - so give us the damn ball and let us do our job”.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Great summary - thanks! You asked about opening day starting lineup. If we’d like to maximise our winning probability, here’s my take: 1. Buxton (DH) 2. Julien (2B) 3. Correa (SS) 4. Miranda (1B) 5. Kepler (RF) 6. Larnach (LF 7. Farmer (3B) 8. Vasquez (C) 9. Gordon (CF) Bench players: Jeffers, Gallo, Taylor and Solano. Rotation: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Mahle Bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Maeda, Moran, and Pagan or Sands Oops, Julien isn’t even on the team, right? Right, but at this moment, this is the best lineup we could field - assuming, of course, we care more about winning than reputations, $’s, major league tolling, and egos. Yeah, that’s too big of an assumption.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    This excellent article made me wonder which players would be in the starting lineup if the choice were based on merit vs. other factors (i.e. reputation, $’s, FO/Manager ego, etc.)? One take: Larnach (LF), Gordon (CF), Kepler (RF), Farmer (3B), Correa (SS), Julien (2B), Miranda (1B), Vasquez (C), and Buxton (DH). Gallo, Solano, and Taylor on the bench. On the bump, Ober over Maeda; but Maeda over Pagan as a reliever.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Agree with the top three comments: Larnach played his way onto the varsity - hard to have a better spring than that; Ober is way too good to have languishing on the JV - the Twins are foregoing their best chance for wins by not having him start every fifth day; Rocco once again does not appear to have his team ready to go out of the gate - but we shall see. Also, Kepler had a nice spring.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    A couple of observations: 1. Yes, it’s very possible that the Twins, as a stand-alone business entity, lose money on a GAAP basis and on a cash basis. It is not clear how the Twins P&L impacts the rest of the Pohlads’ business interests or the overall EV of either the franchise or their other operations. 2. Going to a Twins game is not a Giffen Good (it’s possible that in the insane NYC or LA worlds, the highest priced seats might actually exhibit some Giffen Goods characteristics). Like standard goods and services, as Twins prices rise, consumption falls. However, on offset to this standard economic theory is that with a winning, competing for the playoffs team comes an added value to the consumer - which both flattens and shifts the demand curve for Twins tickets. The A’s have capitulated on this point; the Twins are shooting for it. 3. The Pohlads are decent owners, and, yes, have likely been investing capital each year since COVID to produce better fan experiences - from the team on the field to the ballpark. There is a lot that goes into their capital allocation decisions across their many businesses, including the Twins. At the moment, as it relates to the Twins, there appears to be a good, healthy mix between rational ROI analysis, ego for a winner, and we live in this community too.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly. There is no reason based on recent results on the mound that Ober does not break camp as the fifth, and possibly the fourth, starter. Let’s keep an eye on our FO and coaching staff to see when they get smarts and courage to move Ober in and one of Mahle or Maeda out. Btw, Arraez was traded because both Mahle and Maeda were looking more than iffy.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Geez Louise……..
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Nothing unexpected about all of this. Re Polanco, for the time being just start Julien - he’s got way more upside anyway. I’m fairly tired of hearing about his defense. Let’s face it - this Twins team is going to need to score more runs than most of us TDers think if they are going to compete. Also, do the FO and the coaching staff have the courage to break camp with Ober in the rotation? Mahle or Maeda just may be our sixth starter.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    I’ll take the under on 175 innings out of Mahle this season…
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but the Twins injury situation is already so bad it’s close to being like the woman who backed into the airplane propellor. Its getting much more clear that the FO has known for a while that Buxton, Polanco, and Kiriloff would need to be eased in at best - thus, Gallo, Taylor and Solano.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    I’m not quite there yet. The pieces certainly are there for a solid open window over the next half decade - as you eloquently pointed out partly by luck (getting Correa and Lee were both incredibly lucky and both could be the true anchors of this team during that window) and partly by competence. But this front office and coaching staff have yet to deliver one playoff game victory. They have not, for the most part, been able to develop the talent they’ve been given or acquired to the most of that talent’s abilities. The key to a good, long open window for our small/mid-market Twins will always be to capitalize on the young talent when still cheap while augmenting the team with select, more expensive FAs. We will see what our day-to-day operational leadership can do with the outstanding young talent now on the cusp, My advice to The Nephew is to demand accountability of his FO and coaching staff for the commitment of talent, capital, infrastructure, and opportunities our solid ownership provides them.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of keys to the season, but this certainly has to be one. Sure, the starting pitching is better, the bullpen has promise, and the offense, well, let’s just say, overall isn’t too exciting but maybe a few players break out/return to top prior form. Yet all of that won’t really matter if we continue to play with the poor fundamentals that have become the hallmark of Rocco’s teams. The roster looks better in many respects, but not so strong as to be able to overcome playing dumb baseball - we just aren’t that good.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Quick predictions come Opening Day: Megill and Hoffman go to in AAA (unless Hoffman opts out). Moran and Santana (despite the walks) make the club. We see Henriquez next year (hate to say it, and dearly hope I’m wrong, but this is our Twins and fearing the worst just gives us a chance to be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t happen).
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Barring injury (loud knock on wood), 2024 is virtually a no lose proposition as a Twins fan. We win, great - winning is always fun, We lose, we get to see Lee, Lewis, Julien, and Martin (plus others, including pitchers) sooner rather than later. That’s a lot of fun too. I guess the only downside case is if we kind of contend, the FO gets delusional about our chances, and we end of flailing while not seeing much of the youngsters.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    I hope I’m still around to see Julien (like several others) when the FO finally let’s him play for the varsity team. Who knows when that will happen. In the meantime I will try to stay awake with all the one year rentals comprising our roster.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Yep, probably a pretty much a make or break season for this young man at this point. Go get ‘em Aaron, we are pulling for you. You can do it!
  20. Nashvilletwin
    That’s clearly the FO’s strategy and we shall see how it plays out. If the starting pitching stays healthy and the bullpen is superior, we should contend. But there should be no expectation that the bats of Gallo, Taylor, Kepler, Farmer and Solano are going to be what leads this team to a playoff win. It’s all about the pitching and the FO is just doing it’s best to add marginal, even hopeful, value with the position player decisions.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    I never said Julien or Lee were ready now or that Lewis and Kiriloff were healthy. But once those conditions are met for any of those four players, it’ll be disappointing to see Solano taking away valuable innings from them.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Why in the world would we trade the ascending and better Gordon while keeping the descending Gallo, Kepler, Taylor and Solano, unless some superior (and I mean superior) offer comes in for Gordon that we can’t turn down? It makes no sense. If there is a trade among our likely opening day position player roster, I’d think it would be Kepler. But, at the moment, I agree with Ted that it likely means Larnach is sent to AAA to play everyday and rack up ABs. But as I said on the other thread, if Solano takes one inning away from a “ready” Julien or Lee, or a healthy Lewis or Kiriloff, it will be one inning too many. In addition, this must also mean that Martin is further back on the backup IFer list than we thought; after all, he can play 2B as well and is a RH bat. Martin must be an OFer now. Boy, these additions must be quite disheartening for our young guys banging on the door. Geez, we add another one year rental retread I have absolutely no interest in watching. I literally can’t wait to watch all of those Gallo, Taylor, Solano and Kepler ABs……what a snooze fest, lol.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Another no more than one year rental player I have absolutely no interest in watching. If he takes one inning away from a “ready” Julien or Lee, or a healthy Lewis or Kiriloff, over the course of this season, it will be one inning too many. Yeah, it’s unclear who’s roster spot he takes out of the gate. Choices include: an injured Polanco, an injured Kiriloff, a traded Kepler, or a needing more innings and ABs so sent to AAA Larnach. Trading Gordon while keeping Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Solano, or even Farmer would be insane - I don’t see it unless someone really, really covets Gordon by going Don Corleone on us (i.e. makes us an offer we can’t refuse).
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Completely agree - Moran is the guy who could make a big leap this year into a reliable, high leverage option. Henriquez will be a solid addition to our pen relatively soon and a key cog in the young core ‘24 pen alongside Duran, Alcala, Moran and Jax (that’s a pretty good core five) and hopefully Lopez too.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Other than his supposedly lack of power - which can be overcome at the plate with BA, OBP, BARISP and SBs - there is no reason that Martin is not in the mix for a starting corner OF job next season along with Gordon, Larnach, and Wallner. 2B is more of a long shot if Lee/Lewis and Julien are ahead of him in the queue. Martin has top of the order plate and running skills. Also, I agree with Dave the Dastardly - get him a position and let him run with it. Martin, in my book, remains, at this moment, a better overall prospect than Salas.
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