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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    So Gordon occupies our last position player bench slot. Please…. Once again, would you trade away Gordon straight up for any of Kepler, Gallo or Taylor? Honestly, of those four players, who projects to bring the most value to the Twins over the next several years? It’s not even close. Last season when the Twins started to swoon with Buxton out and Kepler anemic at the plate (and Gallo striking out 160+ times and hitting 0.160 - good grief), it was Gordon that supplied much of the spark to this team. At the moment, based on most recent actual performance, Gordon is our second best all around outfielder. So, are we going to DFA him so we can bring back Garlick while keeping Kepler, Gallo and Taylor? That’s utterly ridiculous. Unless Gordon has an epically horrendous spring, there’s not a snowball’s chance in Hades of that happening unless our FO is even more idiotic than some TDers think.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Ok, let’s begin by figuring out where he’s not going to be a full-time starter in 2024 (when he really needs/deserves to be). Scenario #1: SS (Correa), 3B (Lee/Lewis), 2B (Lee/Lewis), CF (Buxton), C (Vasquez/Jeffers). That leaves 1B (Miranda) and corner OF (Gordon or Larnach in LF, Kiriloff in RF, Martin and Wallner as backups). In this scenario, Julien and Miranda split primary reps at 1B and DH - both are in the lineup essentially every day. Scenario #2: SS (Correa), 3B (Miranda), 2B (Lee), CF (Buxton), LF/RF (Lewis), C (Vasquez/Jeffers). That leaves 1B (Kiriloff), LF/RF (Larnach/Gordon and backups Martin and Wallner). In this scenario Julien and Kiriloff primarily split 1B and DH and both are in the lineup essentially every day. So by process of elimination, Julien is not going to be our starting 2B. 1B and DH (with possibly LF) seem like the most likely spots for an essentially every day type role - which, with a bat like that, he needs to have starting next season at the latest.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Some might say that hitting matters too; if Buxton is not healthy and Taylor, Gallo and Kepler are your starting OF (as many on this site are suggesting by saying Gordon is no better than a 4th outfielder) that group is very, very light hitting. So, some might not be that impressed with the overall capabilities of that group. If everyone is healthy, I think our best outfield is Buxton, Gordon and Larnach.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    So are you trading Gordon for Kepler, Gallo or Taylor straight up? Which of those four are most valuable to this organization going forward? Or is your comment about Gordon as an outfielder more a statement about how bad our outfield really is (which is a perfectly defensible point of view btw)?
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Or Gallo at 1B as well - if he’s going to hit a buckninety and K 30+% of the time, he either has to be playing a plus defensive position or not at all.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Simple question for my fellow TDers: Right now, which of these players individually would you trade Gordon straight up for (i.e. you can either have Gordon or any one of the others): Kepler, Gallo, Taylor, Larnach? Heck, throw in Wallner, Celestino and Martin too. My answer is none of them at this exact moment and 100% absolutely not Kepler, Gallo, or Taylor (some could make a case for Larnach or perhaps one or two of the prospects). This is not saying that Gordon should start every game or that there is not a role for the three vets; rather, it’s simply that currently - looking at expected contributions this season and into the future for the Minnesota Twins - Gordon is our second most valuable outfielder among our current crop of possible 2023 major leaguers in the organization. Let the man play ball!
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Didn’t know that about Gibson. Great post - enjoyed the recap on Kiriloff. Here’s hoping this surgery works for Alex’s sake; it must be incredibly sad and frustrating for him not see his potential being hit despite all the hard work. We’re pulling for you Alex!
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more. Gordon is currently our second best overall (hitting, fielding and running) outfielder behind Buxton.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Really interesting take - Polanco at 1B if Kiriloff is a no go. At the moment, even if Kiriloff can make it back, Miranda should get lots of frames at 1B. If Miranda ends up being a more dependable, higher producing player than Kiriloff this season, then next year when Lee, Lewis and Julien show up, Miranda would be the everyday 1B and Kiriloff (with Kepler and Gallo gone) would be a corner OF (with some combo of Larnach, Gordon, Wallner and Martin), backup 1B, and DH. I literally cannot believe we are going to be starting an OF of Gallo, Kepler and Taylor (when Buxton is inevitably out). Yes, the defense is there in spades, but what a snooze fest at the plate. And all essentially one year rentals. Back to Polanco. I actually think his year at the plate is going to be the key to the Twin’s offense this season. How Polanco goes is how this team will go..
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly my point. This likely becomes the worst case scenario - i.e. the FO chases fool’s gold instead of focusing on a truly World Series competing opportunity in the future.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    2023 is shaping up to be a year with very little downside. If the one year bets on Gallo, Farmer, Taylor, Kepler, Polanco (maybe), Mahle, Gray and Maeda work out we should be able to compete for the title in a weak AL Central. The team could be incredibly boring to watch though, especially if Buxton goes down. But winning solves lots of problems - including watching boring teams. If things don’t work out and we flounder, we get to give Lewis, Lee, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Celestino, Ober, Varland, Winder and SWR plenty of major league experience to see what we’ve got in them as we prep for a better window starting in ‘24. Also, we likely help restock the prospect cupboard by trading some/a lot of the vets. I for one would be tuning daily in to watch those players in the 2nd half. Really the worse case scenario is where we straddle that line just enough that the FO doesn’t have the wisdom, courage, or humility to make the tough calls (either more chips in or take some off the table). Let’s cross that bridge when we get there though. For now, let’s get the season started and win!
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Very interesting. I’ve been writing for some time that my over under on total IPs in ‘23 for our three extension candidates (Mahle, Gray and Maeda) was 375. Looks like the Athletic took the under by quite a bit…. The great news is that 4 of our 5 long-term #3-5 type starters are going to see plenty of MLB innings this season as long as they are healthy (Canterino being the fifth who probably won’t get a cup of coffee this year). That experience will be invaluable heading into ‘24 with Lopez and Ryan at the top of the rotation.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    No reason he can’t be a solid #3-5 starter. There is a hallowed place in the world of MLB for dependable, 180 plus innings #3-5 starters on cheap, controllable deals for multiple years. We should be so lucky if that’s SWR’s floor. Also, he’s only 22 for Pete’s sake - if healthy, he should get better. Raya and Prielipp are our two top of the rotation potential aces arriving in ‘25 to hopefully go alongside Ryan (after we trade Lopez at the deadline in ‘24 - lol). Some combo of Canterino, Varland, SWR, Ober, and Winder make-up #4-8 spots in the rotation. As the next window takes flight, we could have a seriously decent and cheap rotation - with the cash available to augment it as we see fit.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    You’re not being greedy - that’s being realistic. Lee sometime this year and Prielipp in late ‘24 should be the schedule, right? But I get the sentiment, haha.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Completely agree. We for sure will have someone (probably a couple, if not several) who will “hit” among our list to-date. That always happens. My point was more that here we are through #7 and no one yet seems like a sure bet to be a regular starter. Someone who we could look at and say “yep, that guy is pretty much a can’t miss major leaguer”. If I had to choose one up to now, I’d probably pick Varland.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Boy, lots of “ifs” in these rankings up to this point. I’m beginning to understand why the ranking entities don’t love our prospect list all that much relative to other team’s. Do we have at least one sure fire, above average, every day starter major leaguer up to this point yet? So, Connor projects as an ace, a solid starter, a reliever, or a bust. Sounds like a lot of others - except for the “ace” part, which we really do not have anywhere in the system. Therefore, that increases his overall probability weighted ROI by a lot. But the lack of IPs means the range of outcomes is very high too. Let’s see what have at the end of the year. But, I for one love that we have someone with true ace, difference making upside in our system - that is worth the risk and merits the current ranking..
  17. Nashvilletwin
    You make some great points, as usual. Whereas the ranking entities appear to place more emphasis on potential/projection, some of us more casual fans, myself included, tend to value what the prospect has actually done to date. For example, take Wallner. He’s pretty much excelled through multiple layers of the minors and did pretty darn well when he got his cup of coffee. He has a plus power bat with a plus arm, but possibly lacks fielding chops and strikes out way too often. Salas may very well have better projectable tool sets - and ultimately be a better major leaguer. But Wallner has actually proven that he belongs is in the conversation, which we all know how hard it is to even get to that point. Salas has yet to prove real dominance at really any level (unlike Emmanuel Rodriguez) and, sadly, the road is littered with toolsy prospects who never make it to true major league consideration. Wallner and Martin have actually earned that consideration by their play on the field. To someone like me (an under promise/over deliver type), that counts a bit more even if the raw projections suggest otherwise.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Better to know early - particularly this season. Having said that, there is a lot of baseball to be played after April. Besides, for us it’s all about winning the division and it’s hard to see any team in the AL Central pulling away early. Let’s just play ‘em one game at a time and chat in early June.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Agree, with Miranda primarily at 1B, there should be plenty of ABs for Kiriloff in a secondary role there, plus at DH and corner OF.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Absolutely love his speed - that is a trait rarely found among Twins players/top prospects and one that is sorely needed. However, IMHO, we will need to see another year from Salas before we can anoint him a top ten prospect and the reason why the Arraez trade was (as many have suggested) a “steal” for the Twins. From all that’s been published, he appears to be a “tweener” defensively and, at the moment, would rank no better than fifth or sixth among potential Twins SSs (Correa, Lewis, Miller, Lee and possibly Martin). With his speed, the outfield may beckon. With no outstanding defensive home, he will need to develop his plate skills fairly dramatically to earn a role going forward on the big club. Again, with that speed, an OBP demon would seem to be a good fit; yet, the talk is about him developing his power. Let’s hope he gets the right instruction - physical and mental - to build a plus bat. The good news is that he’s young and has the time to do that. Yet, until the bat develops enough to overcome possible defensive questions (i.e., kinda like Julien has), he probably should not be ranked so high - I actually have him behind Martin and Wallner at this point, but could see him jumping both players based on how their respective 2023 seasons go.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    I’m generally not shy about giving the FO a bit a heat on the TD from time to time. But on the Ryan/Cruz trade they deserve accolades. With Arraez gone, Ryan is now my favorite Twin - I’ll be tuning in for each of his starts this year for sure.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    We will see if we extend any of Mahle, Gray or Maeda (if we are not contending, at least one - most likely Gray- gets traded by the deadline). But I forgot about Paddock in my comment above. So even if we do not extend any of those three and before we add anyone else, right now for ‘24 we have: Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober, Winder, SWR and Varland with at least Prielipp, Canterino and Balazovic waiting in the wings. If we play our cards right and develop some of these young pitchers over ‘23, we can have a pretty darn good, deep and cheap staff starting in ‘24.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Yes, I was actually thinking Radke, or, as MikeLink45 pointed out, Goltz would be a wonderful ceiling for Varland. Having said that, I’d take a floor of 150+ frames, 25-30 starts and an era around 4.00 over each the next five years on essentially league minimum any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Well, it is an unpopular position on the TD, but, yes, in hindsight with us moving on from Arraez, our best lineup would have had Urshela at 3B and Miranda at 1B (and Farmer at utility!). If Kiriloff is indeed healthy, we could have skipped the entire Gallo thing and had him play OF/DH with Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, Kepler and Taylor. But that ship has sailed. It looks like Miranda gets 3B to at least start the year. But 1B looks like more of a long-term better fit for two reasons: 1) his defensive upside is probably higher at 1B and 2) we have two other players coming up better suited for 3B (Lewis or Lee). We shall see how things play out this year (including with Polanco), but I must admit I’m salivating over an infield/DH mix of Lewis, Correa, Lee, Miranda and Julien. All five of those players starting in ‘24 should be in the lineup essentially everyday and batting in the top six of the lineup with Buxton.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    The good news for Varland - in ‘23 he should get plenty of MLB starts; in fact, his competition for those starts (Ober, Winder and SWR) should all see a good number of majors starts due to injury, fatigue, or trades of 3 or 4 of our projected starters. He will then be in a position to be compete with those three for the final two spots in our ‘24 breaking camp rotation behind Ryan, Lopez and probably one more addition (i.e. an extended Mahle, Gray or Maeda or someone new). If he can throw 150+ innings of about 4.00 era ball over 25-30 starts per year for five years starting in ‘24, he will be a indispensable, inexpensive cog in our next open window. There is coveted place in the world of MLB for pitchers like that. Lot to like here.
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