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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    Agree, a lot of factors must be weighed. But as an owner and leader of several successful businesses in my life, the key was always applying purity of heart in making every business decision. That one “test” generally encapsulated all of the factors to which you refer - and ego was the last box checked, if ever. Don’t underestimate the desire for truly outstanding performers to want to be part of a culture committed to winning and which demands accountability from all stakeholders. Btw, those are the FAs and coaches we want to attract.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    At least we can all admit that factors other than putting the best team on the field are part of the equation. However, we shouldn’t just limit it to our ability to attract FA’s; let’s make sure we include player, FO and coaching staff egos as well (among other things). I’m wondering, how many wins are those factors worth in any given year?
  3. Nashvilletwin
    A couple of observations: 1. Yes, it’s very possible that the Twins, as a stand-alone business entity, lose money on a GAAP basis and on a cash basis. It is not clear how the Twins P&L impacts the rest of the Pohlads’ business interests or the overall EV of either the franchise or their other operations. 2. Going to a Twins game is not a Giffen Good (it’s possible that in the insane NYC or LA worlds, the highest priced seats might actually exhibit some Giffen Goods characteristics). Like standard goods and services, as Twins prices rise, consumption falls. However, on offset to this standard economic theory is that with a winning, competing for the playoffs team comes an added value to the consumer - which both flattens and shifts the demand curve for Twins tickets. The A’s have capitulated on this point; the Twins are shooting for it. 3. The Pohlads are decent owners, and, yes, have likely been investing capital each year since COVID to produce better fan experiences - from the team on the field to the ballpark. There is a lot that goes into their capital allocation decisions across their many businesses, including the Twins. At the moment, as it relates to the Twins, there appears to be a good, healthy mix between rational ROI analysis, ego for a winner, and we live in this community too.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Maeda and Mahle certainly have been “built up” before, but I’m not sure either is right at this moment. Mahle seems to be struggling and we’ve all thought that the Twins would be cautious early in the season with Maeda. Your piggyback idea for #5 is a good one; however, if we went that direction, I’d start with Ober and then have Maeda relieve him. The only correct answer is whichever two, based in their performances (not age, seniority, player ego, FO ego, etc.), give the Twins the best chance to win ballgames.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Agree, the FO put together a viable, if not a really solid, group of professional baseball players as back ups. Nothing not to like per se. Winning cures all, so let’s hope for that. It’s probably just me, but I don’t feel like I want invest as much of my “fan” capital in a lot of these guys who are going to be one and done. I know I have a rep on the site for not liking the Arraez trade. My view is that Arraez was much more than a great hitter and decent enough fielder - he was the spark (did you see the WBC?) Who’s the spark now - Gordon, Buxton? My theory is that the g2 on Mahle and Maeda came in too late in FA to solve the problem with a signing. So they turned to the trade market.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Kiriloff and Polanco out and Buxton pretty much a full time DH. Maeda and Mahle do not appear to be 100% either (hopefully Ober gets the ball every fifth day, but we likely will have to wait on that). Its been clear all along - we TDers just never fully put 2+2 together. Gallo, Taylor, Solano, and the Lopez/Arraez trade were all the clues we needed. What else could the FO have done? They have a plan this year and come hell or high water they are going to it implemented. Quick question - where’s the “fun” on this team? For me, it will be watching Gordon, Miranda, and Larnach among the position players. Correa and Vasquez too perhaps. And Buxton ABs for sure. But Farmer, Solano, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, and Garlick - nah, I pretty much have no interest in these one year guys.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly. There is no reason based on recent results on the mound that Ober does not break camp as the fifth, and possibly the fourth, starter. Let’s keep an eye on our FO and coaching staff to see when they get smarts and courage to move Ober in and one of Mahle or Maeda out. Btw, Arraez was traded because both Mahle and Maeda were looking more than iffy.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Geez Louise……..
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Nothing unexpected about all of this. Re Polanco, for the time being just start Julien - he’s got way more upside anyway. I’m fairly tired of hearing about his defense. Let’s face it - this Twins team is going to need to score more runs than most of us TDers think if they are going to compete. Also, do the FO and the coaching staff have the courage to break camp with Ober in the rotation? Mahle or Maeda just may be our sixth starter.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    I’ll take the under on 175 innings out of Mahle this season…
  11. Nashvilletwin
    ES is a prospect and potentially a very strong one. Mahle is now basically a one year rental. No consternation per se. But ES has upheld his end of the deal SO FAR while Mahle has not. Thus, TO DATE, the trade has been bad from our point of view. But, as I said, let’s see what the future holds - a lot of outcomes still possible.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    At the moment, Mahle has done nothing for us when he was suppose to be a key cog in last years playoff run - which was a huge part of the rationale for doing the deal. We shall see what the future holds…
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but the Twins injury situation is already so bad it’s close to being like the woman who backed into the airplane propellor. Its getting much more clear that the FO has known for a while that Buxton, Polanco, and Kiriloff would need to be eased in at best - thus, Gallo, Taylor and Solano.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    I so have the under on 30 starts and/or 150 innings. Hope I’m wrong.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Given the first rationale for the deal was for Mahle to lead the way to a division title and at least one playoff victory last season, the trade has been a disaster for the Twins to this point. If Mahle is healthy this year, the trade may end up working out for us and possibly both teams. But that’s a big if.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Very bad news. Hope he’s back soon, because Gordon is a) a good young player still with plenty of upside and b) one of the players I tune in to watch. Oh well, more Gallo, Kepler and Turner for a while -zzzzzzzzz.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    I’m not quite there yet. The pieces certainly are there for a solid open window over the next half decade - as you eloquently pointed out partly by luck (getting Correa and Lee were both incredibly lucky and both could be the true anchors of this team during that window) and partly by competence. But this front office and coaching staff have yet to deliver one playoff game victory. They have not, for the most part, been able to develop the talent they’ve been given or acquired to the most of that talent’s abilities. The key to a good, long open window for our small/mid-market Twins will always be to capitalize on the young talent when still cheap while augmenting the team with select, more expensive FAs. We will see what our day-to-day operational leadership can do with the outstanding young talent now on the cusp, My advice to The Nephew is to demand accountability of his FO and coaching staff for the commitment of talent, capital, infrastructure, and opportunities our solid ownership provides them.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of keys to the season, but this certainly has to be one. Sure, the starting pitching is better, the bullpen has promise, and the offense, well, let’s just say, overall isn’t too exciting but maybe a few players break out/return to top prior form. Yet all of that won’t really matter if we continue to play with the poor fundamentals that have become the hallmark of Rocco’s teams. The roster looks better in many respects, but not so strong as to be able to overcome playing dumb baseball - we just aren’t that good.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    With all the errors, this game is pretty much how Rocco and staff treat ST and it rolls into the regular season. Very little accountability throughout the lineup. The adage has truth: you play how you practice. This is just how last spring felt: we dropped it and threw it around all spring training and then that pretty much set the tone for real games.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Quick predictions come Opening Day: Megill and Hoffman go to in AAA (unless Hoffman opts out). Moran and Santana (despite the walks) make the club. We see Henriquez next year (hate to say it, and dearly hope I’m wrong, but this is our Twins and fearing the worst just gives us a chance to be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t happen).
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Barring injury (loud knock on wood), 2024 is virtually a no lose proposition as a Twins fan. We win, great - winning is always fun, We lose, we get to see Lee, Lewis, Julien, and Martin (plus others, including pitchers) sooner rather than later. That’s a lot of fun too. I guess the only downside case is if we kind of contend, the FO gets delusional about our chances, and we end of flailing while not seeing much of the youngsters.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Agreed. Btw, Gordon and Farmer are going to start a whole lotta games this season.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    I hope I’m still around to see Julien (like several others) when the FO finally let’s him play for the varsity team. Who knows when that will happen. In the meantime I will try to stay awake with all the one year rentals comprising our roster.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Agree, when Correa, Lewis and Lee all eventually start at SS, 2B and 3B (in some mix), Miranda should get pushed to 1B as his primary position. Julien and Kiriloff would round out the backup infielder roles and DH with Kiriloff maybe playing some OF too.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Who cares if we deplete the pipeline each year searching for pitching if we can continue to sign guys like Gallo, Taylor, Solano and Farmer? Even though that comment was written in sarcasm font, there is some truth to it - trading position player prospects for immediate or future pitching and signing/acquiring cheaper (relative to veteran pitchers) major league track record position players very much seems like an important plank of this FO’s current strategy. Lots of good points on this thread - with the reality, like most things, somewhere in the middle: ideally, we’d like to have a more consistent/dependable pipeline of pitching talent with an occasional clear top end starter come out of the system, while continuing to augment the staff as needed with trades. We might be a little long on one side of that ideal at the moment, but might have a chance to balance it out over the next several years.
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