Nashvilletwin

Kiriloff may never be back - the risk with his wrist is greater than the risk with Arraez’s knees. Miranda cooled off a lot last year and neither he nor Kiriloff is an upgrade at 1B. Polanco has peaked and may not be on this team by the trade deadline. Gordon and Martin are primarily outfielders. Farmer is a one year stop gap. Lewis, Lee and Julien all have promise for sure - but it’s still just promise. Arraez brought incredible differentiated value to this team and arguably was our second best position player (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count).

Salas is not a SS prospect - maybe not even an infielder prospect.

Lol - This is exactly the reason why the merits of this deal should be questioned. The consensus of the “national” press generally means a bunch of group think by people too lazy to really delve into the issues and who simply parrot what each other write. We shall see, but Lopez was clearly the one “youngish” SP of “quality” the Marlins were fixated on moving. Why? Probably because he had less control (a big issue for the Marlins) and he had less upside. Very possible he has peaked. How about Salas? Salas had just a good enough year to build back some trade value. But they know he’s no SS, probably not even an infielder. So Salas is our new Austin Martin, but with less OBP and a bit more power. Anyone want to wager if Salas’ national rankings go up or down this season within the Twins’ system? The last guy? If only we all had a nickel for every 17 year old phenom. Sheesh - his value is next to nada. Sorry - but this very much is still a one-for-one trade and is not as cut and dried as the vast majority of TDers think. Hope it works out, but the beauty of an Arraez at bat was a reason to tune into every game. Lopez will not replace that. There is no one on the Twins to replace what Arraez brought to the lineup. Kiriloff? Please. Miranda? C’mon. Farmer, or Gallo? Be serious. As a team struggling to score runs - and they will be that if Buxton doesn’t play 100 games and hit well - the Twins could be a very boring team to watch this year. They’d better win….

More like Austin Martin with a bit more power. Seriously, it’s just like getting Martin who, when the Twins got him, was a fringy top 100 player who plays SS but may not even project as an infielder. I refuse to buy into the “Twins fleeced the Marlins” narrative that seems to be quite popular on TD tonight. Other than maybe the Berrios trade, this FO hasn’t shown it can deliver on trades, let alone fleece anyone. When people start talking about how smart we are and how dumb or backed against the wall the Marlins were, that’s when the antenna go up.

Winning solves everything - especially with front running Minnesota fans who’d rather spend their summer nights walking around a lake, fishing, biking, boating, etc. than watch a losing Twins club. As someone who watched 150+ games last year, Arraez was must see TV for me. I have no interest really in watching Kep anymore at the plate and Joey Gallo will really only be fun to watch to keep track of his k’s. Lol. Fangraphs be damned. We lost our most fun player to watch (sorry, Buxton only plays 1/3 of the games and “I can’t believe I ended up in Minnesota” Correa is just hard to cheer for in the heart). Gallo and Farmer are not going to get me to tune in. We will see about Lopez, but unless this team wins - and this is coming from a die hard Twins fan - my innings watched this year will likely be a lot less. Just keeping things real…… I actually view this more as either a) a hedge on not resigning one of Mahle, Gray or Maeda for whatever reason (injury, cost, plain old stink) and/ or b) not much faith in Ober, SWR, Varland, Winder and Balazovic. Either could be very valid reasons.

Not sure this is the case - really not very good at either, but I’d be hard pressed to say the Twins are a good hitting ball club. At the moment I’d wager the ‘23 Twins are in the bottom 20-25% of all teams in strike outs, BARISP, OBP, and, most importantly, runs scored. Its more like Falvey thought that even with Arraez the Twins would never be able to hit their way to victory - might as well go long pitching. Better make a few more pen moves if that’s the case.

Lee and Julien’s time in the majors this year (assuming they both continue to perform in the minors) will depend on if we are contending and the health of Lewis. If we are contending, chances are Polanco and Farmer make it through the deadline. If healthy, Lewis gets the first chance at significant ABs. Regardless, the Twins infield starting in ‘24 looks to be cheap (besides Correa, of course) and deep both at the plate and in the field. We should have these six players on the roster and with the DH, it’s possible that five of these six players are starting every game: Correa, Arraez, Miranda, Lewis, Lee and Julien.

I went to that July 4th 1974 Eddie Bane debut game. Crazy atmosphere. SRO at the old Met. Those were the days…… I’ve got the over on Lee having a better Twins career than Eddie. But give Eddie credit - he still built a solid career in baseball.

That’s a good one - never heard it before. Made me chuckle.

Based on his performance, development to-date, and potential, he’s probably ranked 9th on the current list of Twins’ 2024/2025 possible outfielders (note, Kepler, Gallo, and any additional RH bat acquired are absent): 1. Buxton. 2. Gordon. 3. Larnach. 4. Kiriloff. 5. Wallner. 6. Martin. 7. Rodriguez. 8. Celestino. 9. Urbina. The bad news for Urbina is that he’s ninth. The good news for Urbina is that not a single one of those players can be counted on to be an everyday player because of injury risk and/or proof of development. So there is a lot for him to play for re his future with the Twins. And as for the Twins, he is certainly still one of their bets they have out there to fill one of the four available projected OF slots behind Buxton. Let’s see how ‘23 goes for him.

Could be viewed as a “throw it at the wall and see what sticks” flier for the ‘24 rotation and a hedge on resigning one of Mahle, Gray and Maeda. So all good. The goal is to gather enough of these to at least find one or two reliable starters in ‘24 to go along with Ryan and Ober. Options now include: resigning one or two of Gray, Mahle and Maeda, Winder, SWR, Varland, Balazovic, and Paddack. Whom am I missing? We really could use one more reliable, innings eating, controllable arm by the trade deadline.

I’ve way got the under on this. Vegas would probably set the over/under at around .200.

I don’t understand the comments that we have not upgraded our starting pitching. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Mahle and Maeda were not in the rotation for most of ‘22. This year they both should break camp with the team. Also, Ryan and Ober are both a year older with more experience - they both should enter this season with the expectation to be better than where they were at the beginning of last season. We will see how healthy Maeda and Mahle turn out to be, but there is no way this year’s rotation out of camp isn’t significantly better on paper than last year’s.

Sure, absolutely the fortunes of this team will swing on the health of our two best players. That’s not unusual, but it’s fair to say the Twins are relatively more long on those two players’ health than other clubs might be with their two best players. Having said that, we shouldn’t look past the health of the three players comprising the core of the FO’s 2023 strategy: Gray, Mahle and Maeda. If those three are healthy - let’s say, pitching combined over 450 innings - this team could go a long way even if Buxton and/or Correa only play 80 games apiece. Said another way, if Buxton and Correa each played 130+ games and those three throw less than a total of 325 innings (and, btw, that unfortunately is not an unreasonable expectation by any means), Buxton and Correa’s good health won’t matter. We do not have the starter or BP depth to overcome that. That’s why it’s important to get one more solid, reliable innings eater starter.

We break camp with 13 position players - 2 catchers (Vasquez, Jeffers), 5 infielders (Correa, Farmer, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda) and 6 outfielders. Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, who are the six outfielders (with primary positions)? 1. Buxton (CF). 2. Gallo (RF). 3. Gordon (LF, CF backup). 4. Larnach (LF, RF). 5. Kiriloff (LF, RF, 1B). 6. Celestino (OF utility) or Wallner (RF) or new RH OF bat First three are starters. Any of the six (other than Celestino) could DH with Gordon able to play SS or 2B and Gallo and Kiriloff able to play 1B. Kepler is traded. Based on spring training, Wallner or Celstino begins the season in AAA with the other (if we add a RH OF bat) and Martin (who may be the first call up given his RH bat status - don’t sleep on him, he could be above Wallner and Celestino in the OF pecking order by the end of May).

Exactly why we cannot trade either Lewis or Lee. If both turn out to be super players, there will be room for both of them on the diamond. But we cannot afford to trade Lee and then have Lewis turn into 80 Game Buxton or worse.

Played our cards on Gallo….

Nice post!

Haha - didn’t see your post, but I just posted the same stats on the Should We Extend Arraez thread. The numbers are eerily similar through the first four years - and both finished their fourth year at age 25.

Thank you! Have a great weekend!

Let’s try to break this down a bit. The goal for the Twins this year should be to win the Central (and see where things go from there) while building/not screwing up the roster for a longer and more open window in ‘24-‘26. 1. If healthy, our starting staff is solid - in reality, how much more value would be created by replacing Ober with one of these Marlins. Some for sure, but at what cost to ‘24-‘26? 2. With an injury or two, we still have SWR, Varland and Winder for depth. Could one, or even a mix of all three, do nearly as well as one of the Marlins? Possibly. But we should expect injuries to our current starters and having another fairly certain 100+ IP SP arm would be a super hedge. 3. After this year, there is no certainty we resign any of Gray, Mahle or Maeda. That leaves us with Ryan, Ober and the three prospects (four if you include Balazovic). At least one more dependable, controllable and cheap SP arm is highly desirable heading into ‘24 and beyond. 4. Ideally, we do not want to move any position player assets who have a reasonable chance to be impactful on the roster in ‘24-‘26. This list includes Arraez, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Wallner, and maybe one of Larnach or Kiriloff. This list probably does not include Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Celestino, Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, Urbina, and possibly one of Larnach or Kiriloff. Conclusion: We definitely could use another reliable 100 IP starter to both maximise our chances this season while giving us a solid core rotation heading into ‘24-‘26. Any package of the position players listed above to get that done which includes (if required) a) one of either Farmer or Polanco, b) one of either Kepler or Gallo, c) one of either Celestino, Larnach or Kiriloff, and d) one of Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, or Urbina makes sense and might be doable. The order of interest IMHO would be: Cabrera, Luzardo, Lopez and Rogers.

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet. He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward. 2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point. The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

Love the deal; great to have CC back. Yes, it was lucky we got him back, but kudos to the FO for not only hanging around the hoop, but also actually getting a deal (btw, much more favourable to the Twins than the first offer) done in a tense, constantly leverage changing, rumor-filled environment. Hats off! A few days ago, the all-in on Mahle/Gray/Maeda strategy for ‘23 was looking much more risky and maybe even ill-advised. The FO and Joe had to be worried about the team they’d put on the field and the ability to draw fans. A healthy Correa in the lineup now changes that narrative dramatically - he makes the entire team better and much more interesting to the fan base. It will be interesting to see how much more all in the FO goes this off-season. With Correa now on board, an entirely new set of trades will probably be evaluated. Some players who were off the block might suddenly be back on and some who were on the block might now be off. Another starter to hedge the risk of less than expected IPs from Mahle, Gray and Maeda makes much more sense now (I mean, time to put some more chips in now, right?). I for one just hope we don’t give up anyone who can reasonably be expected to break camp with the team in ‘24 because our best window if we play our cards right might just be ‘24-‘26.

Gordon and Martin are outfielders. At the moment they are behind Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, and Julien (even probably Arraez for that matter on a utility basis) in the non-1B infield innings to be played queue. No one is worried about the Correa signing taking away innings and ABs from Gordon or Martin - they will need to make or break their careers with the Twins in the outfield. The player you are missing is Julien. At the moment he projects as a true 2B who should see major league time this season. Correa is not the player clogging up this infield - he’s the key cog for the next several years. It’s going to be Farmer and Polanco (whom I hope has a monster bounce back year) who could be the clogs in ‘23 taking playing time away from Lewis, Julien and Lee. Ultimately, the Twins could have an infield in ‘24-‘26 of these six players: Correa (SS/3B), Lewis (3B/SS), Lee (2B/SS utility), Julien (utility/2B), Miranda (1B/3B) and Arraez (1B/2B utility). Six solid players, of whom four start every game and one is available to DH. Excellent flexibility. Good enough D coupled with a strong mix of batting characteristics (i.e L/R, power, AVE, OPB, speed, etc.) Outside of Correa, pretty darn cheap. Future is bright if we don’t blow it.

Great development that Correa fell back into our laps. This FO will now be all in on making their Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy work. So that means your roster projection is in the ballpark. But it means many young players still requiring development will not get the innings or ABs they need barring injury. Wallner, Larnach, Martin (he’s an outfielder now), Celestino and maybe Kiriloff will be sacrificed for one more year on the Joey Gallo and possibly Max Kepler altars. Same with Julien, Lewis and possibly Lee on the Farmer and Polanco (here’s hoping he has a great bounce back year) altars. Probably we will see a trade or two to bolster/injury hedge our SPs. Its the right strategy in the short term - the Central could be had. But make no mistake, it will come at a cost for ‘24 when it’s quite possible that many, if not all, of Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Farmer, Gallo, Kepler and Polanco are gone.