Nashvilletwin

$73MM CBP. Crazy, but true….

Agreed. Hope I’m wrong but if Correa signs elsewhere, this off-season looks very bleak. Our FO will likely cap it off by trading Arraez and then when Buxton gets hurt again we can all watch some extremely low octane baseball. We keep our payroll powder dry at well under $100MM and try to put butts in seats selling the youth movement. But 2023 need not be a complete write-off if: 1) Polanco, Kepler, and probably Mahle, are traded by the deadline and 2) we get to see a lot of Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Wallner, SWR, Varland, Henriquez, and Sands. A marginally competitive rebuild in 2023 is looking more like a possibility with every passing day…..

…..and 6) the sun needs to start rising in the west.

Exactly. You nailed it. The goal is to win a lot of 1-0 games? With a five inning starter and our pen? Yeah, trade Luis and lose all our better hitters - let’s see how many fans want to watch that. I watched nearly every Twins game last season - right up to the end. The two hitters I made sure to watch each at bat were BB and LA. For me, that was must see TV. Right now the three most popular Twins are Buxton, Correa and Arraez. Twins strategy to put butts in the seats? Play one for 50 games, lose another to free agency, and trade the third for a pitcher who throws 5-6 innings a game every 5 games.

I’m all for advanced stats. But my eye test tells me when we had runners on or runners on in scoring position last season, Luis was by far the Twin we wanted at the plate. He was also the Twin most opposing pitchers did not want to see at the plate in those situations. Luis is a tough out and by far the toughest out - especially when it matters - on a team chock full of easy outs. We want Lopez? A one year guy (albeit a really good one year) with rotator cuff history? Offer the Marlins Kepler and Polanco. I know they wouldn’t take either, or even both, of those declining names. But don’t trade the one guy on the team who makes the opposing pitchers work the hardest and consistently produces at the plate when it most matters.

Technically Gordon? Gordon is our best performing all around outfielder and it’s not really close.

$25MM a year 11 years from now is only about $10-12MM in today’s $s at most. Plus revenues/budgets/salaries will more than double as well over that period, and by 2034 Bogaerts will be getting paid less than a mop up reliever or a third catcher. The question for a number of owners is not annual cash flow; instead it’s mostly equity value growth coupled with ego.

As of now, any of Dollander, Crews, Langford, Gonzalez, or Bradfield will do fine. Those are probably the top 5 college picks and we have #5. Ideally Dollander or Langford (Crews is the most unlikely) falls to us. What a great stroke of luck that lottery was.

Let’s face it, it was always going to be hard for the Giants to compete with that short right field fence in NY. I can imagine that Judge told the Giants he’d sign with them, but they’d have to move the right field wall in - lol.

Prices are very high this year. With the Giants and Cubs supposedly all in on CC, it will be hard for the Twins to compete. Still hopeful though. Shouldn’t be long before we know.

Last year Lee miraculously fell to us at 8. For 2023, at the moment I’m hoping the Tennessee pitcher Dollander or Florida power hitting OF Langford somehow is there for us at 5. But they certainly wouldn’t be there at 13!

It kinda depends on the strategy. To me it feels like 2023 is going to be a “let’s pretty much run the same guys up the flagpole one last time” type of year. Assuming we resign CC, we basically swap out Urshela for Farmer and get a different #2 catcher (probably cheaper but not as good). Kepler is definitely part of this strategy. You could reasonably argue that the expectation for each position player should be improved over last season. CC - full ST, back on schedule. BB - healthier. MK - the shift is adios. JP - healthier. JM - upward trajectory. RJ - slowing, but still upward, trajectory. LA - just coming into his own NG - upward trajectory. AK and TL - back from injuries. KF and new #2 C - more or less Urshela/Sanchez equivalent If they all stay healthy, it’s fair to expect this position player team should outperform last year’s and there is a reasonable argument that each player, including Kepler, is poised to have a better season. So Kepler stays for now. If the Twins are healthy but aren’t contending by the TD, expect Max and Jorge to be moved. And, if they both are playing well, their trade values may actually be higher. Side note: this strategy is fairly equivalent to the 2022 Vikings - the previous season we way underperformed, so it makes sense to pretty much run the same, many ageing and somewhat expensive players back for one more shot. Of course, the Vikings applied this strategy in conjunction with a move at the helm.

If he wants to raise his family and live his life in the Bay Area, that’s his choice. Besides the weather, the place is a disaster. Lived there for 23 years. Lived the last seven about 2 hours south. Won’t even visit there. Literally, the last place my children - Correa’s age - would move to raise their children. Minnesota is way better. A marginal $1-2MM/year (less after tax) is just not worth it. Just my opinion. Sorry if I offended anyone.

Those were strong trades - love Ryan and Gray has produced. You are correct. But I’m not willing to take a hit or miss approach with an all star on a low priced contract and several years of control and lots of improvement ahead of him. Cruz and Berrios (unsignable and overrated) were one thing - Arraez is another in my book. If we move Arraez, it better be for more certainty than Ryan was at the time of his acquisition or Mahle who has not proven to date, and may or may not ever prove, his value.

Yep - I was wrong. Turner dropped today. Two of the others were pitchers and Abreu is a two year deal - so those weren’t really in my thinking. But Turner certainly was.

I’m sure we can find an oft injured, not likely to contribute much, and/or likely to deteriorate in performance upon acquisition starter or reliever for Arraez - the AL batting champ, our best situational hitter by a mile, better than average fielding first baseman, capable of playing multiple positions if needed, including 2B, 3B, corner OF and DH, and plays with a huge heart. No chance I trust this FO not to screw this up after the last several pitching trade disasters.

Great insights - if I may embellish. 1. The market for CC is probably pretty deep and the Twins are not necessarily the likeliest highest bidder (which, btw, is not necessarily the same thing as the preferred destination). So there is not much downside to Boras/CC if the Twins set a deadline, the deadline is rejected, and Twins are publicly out. 2. You are correct - nothing happens at the top of the market until Judge signs. Buyers and sellers are waiting to see what kind of ammo that gives to their arguments. 3. You are correct - even if the Twins are publicly out, nothing prevents them from jumping back in later. I’ve seen it a lot. But, generally speaking, that strategy causes the bidder to lose leverage (i.e. “What? You want back in? Now? We thought you were out. Well, we are way down the road with others - mentally and contactually. So, if you want back in, you are going to have to move fast and pay up”) in the process unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. it becomes known that the bidder and seller are really the only two left at the table). Unless, the Twins employ the strategy you recommended: make offers to multiple players at which you are fairly indifferent. Essentially FBI - first ball in. Then, you go back to your preferred choice with a final shot. 4. It’s actually a very complicated and dynamic situation - made more so by Boras representing both of the Twins most likely SS targets. Not that he cares, but the potential for conflicts of interest for Boras are very high. Btw, that might on the margin help the Twins. 5. Farmer was a great sign - provides a legitimate pivot strategy (i.e. temporary competitive rebuild while waiting for Lewis and Lee), but it really doesn’t impart that much leverage in the discussions until maybe the SS market gets near the end. 6. Oh, also, forget Rodon - DeGrom blew that possibility right out of the water,

Really it’s just a question of when, not if. And that’s no knock on Polanco - he’s a really good professional baseball player and absolutely one of my favourite Twins. But the facts are: a) He plays on a mid-market, budget-constrained team that will need cash to fill in the holes via FAs; b) The Twins top three prospects (Lewis, Lee and Julien) plus two top youngsters already on the club (Arraez and Miranda) are all infielders needing a place to play - and this traffic jam is compounded by signing Farmer and if we resign CC; and c) His performance - perhaps all or mostly all due to health - is clearly starting to diminish and it’s unclear if that slide can be turned around. Having said all that, Polanco clearly has chemistry with CC (which may help on the margin in resigning CC), he has been really good in the field and at the plate when healthy, the young guys still need seasoning/proving/healing, and he’s a true pro with veteran presence who’s not that expensive. Prediction: Polanco is not traded in the off-season. The Twins resign CC and give Polanco every chance to get back into form. However, if the Twins are not definitively in the hunt by the trade deadline (almost regardless of how Polanco is performing), the prospects are knocking hard at the door, or he’s not very good anymore, he gets moved in the summer. The chances of Polanco being with the Twins in ‘24 are slim. The sad truth is that the old young core we were hoping would lead us to a WS a couple of years ago - Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, and, even, Garver - are now, rightfully, having to give way to a new, deeper, and possibly/hopefully better young core. Kepler and Polanco are the last two and both, unless something extraordinary happens, will be gone before next season,

Wells was a much bigger loss than Baddoo.

At the moment, Gordon is our must trustworthy OF player. He got his chance, made the most of it, and has earned the right to plenty of innings - certainly over Celestino and others. Gordon can hit plenty decently for average and with some pop, plus he’s strong defensively with range, glove and arm. He’s also a catalyst with his energy and speed. There is also no reason to expect Gordon has plateaued - he still has plenty of room to improve if he stays focused, disciplined and committed to being the best pro he can be. At worst, he’s the fourth OF playing 4-5 times a week (3 of those in CF spelling BB). At best, he’s an everyday starter at a corner position and Center when BB is DHing, resting, or injured. He could be a real gem….

I’ll take 140 innings and a sub 4.00 ERA right now and be perfectly happy. There will be some days when he is superb and a few clunkers for sure. But that would be a great season from Mahle. Anything better than that is gravy; however, if pressed, I’d probably bet the under. Seriously, given the arm issues late last season, should we realistically expect any more than that through the course of an entire season? Hopefully that type of season will not qualify as the Twins 2023 “Ace” - Ryan, and both Gray and Maeda if healthy, should outperform that.

Maybe I’m just a worrier. But I’m worried about all four aspects of the 2023 Twins - and, if we sign Correa, the position player lineup is the least of those worries. In order: 1. Starting staff - sorry, but we have two decent starters on whom we can reasonably rely (and one of them, Gray, should not be expected to be healthy throughout the season). Might be able to get through the year on depth, but a true inning eating #3 would be a huge hedge on Mahle, Maeda, and Ober. 2. Relief staff - Four or five fairly reliable one inning guys. Lopez is a big if. With a two times through the order starter strategy, our depth needs augmenting by at least two/three solid additions. 3. Coaching staff - Rocco has not proven he and his staff can develop young talent or keep the players on the field. In addition, his in game decision making needs to be a net 5 wins vs. a net 5 losses over the season (can’t back up that stat with data, but it feels like about that). 4. Sign Correa and a catcher - no worries then.

It’s an interesting bidding situation. On one hand you have four sellers. If there are five or more buyers willing to purchase any of the four (even not necessarily at the same price), and it appears there are, then it most likely will maximise the value of the last seller to wait until the end. From a buyer’s perspective, you may want to overpay slightly early in the process so as to avoid having to overpay if it appears you may get shut out in the musical chairs at the end (and particularly if you are marginally more budget conscious than the other bidders), It behooves the Twins to slightly over pay early in the process for their top target. For Boras, he very possibly may find himself in a conflicted situation in that the interests of each of his clients are not necessarily aligned - not that he cares, However, if one, on the margin, would prefer one buyer over the others, his best strategy as the agent for two sellers is to get one deal done early at a slight over pay with the seller with a preference and then build greater value as the sellers diminish for his second client.

Innings Pitched by Starter Projection - Most to Least Ryan (solid, healthy season upcoming) FA/Trade (we need an innings eater SP) Gray (solid season with one or two IL stints) Maeda (gets ramped up but he’s had his surgery) Ober (in and out as the #5) Mahle (oft injured - very sad) Winder (spot starter out of the pen) Varland (call up starter) SWR (call up starter) Paddack. (DNP)

I’m actually way more worried about Mahle than Maeda; Kenta has had his surgery. Sorry to be Debbie Downer, but in terms of innings pitched in 2023, there is a strong chance Maeda>Mahle. Winder, Varland and SWR need their chance this year. And they will get it. But none of those young guys is an every fifth day guy looking at 30+ starts. In fact, only Gray and Ryan out of our pencilled in starting five (with Mahle, Maeda and Ober) could be expected to play that role and Gray really doesn’t have the history. Therefore, 1. Maeda is absolutely a starter until a) the rotation proves it’s durability and/or b) Kenta doesn’t perform; and 2. the Twins absolutely need to add a durable, inning eating #2-4 SP.