Nashvilletwin

It’s the most realistic option and the truth. But it can be augmented: Pivot 5: Roll with what we have but trade out our FO and Rocco for a new unit who can develop our young talent - not only in the minors, but also when they get to the Show, Having that type of team leadership is how small/mid market teams can flourish.

100%. This is critical for small/mid market team success. We have not had it and should not expect to with Rocco.

Well, when you put it that way…. Face it, unless option 1 comes to fruition, the Twins are in a big hole for ‘23. There is no need to go long a top starter with the lineup we are projected to have in ‘23. So don’t waste the big bucks now and certainly do not deplete further our dwindling prospect list. Maybe we could move Kepler for IKF, but that is hardly a needle mover. Even with signing CC, the overarching goal was to keep building for a wide open window starting as early as ‘24, while still having a shot in ‘23. Swanson is the only realistic option that keeps that strategy alive. If that doesn’t work, we just shouldn’t panic. Yeah, maybe add some sort of seat filler, but the key is to keep building for a new window with a new young, affordable core.

Haha - when you think about it, they already have a lot who won’t be part of the next “open window”: Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, maybe Arraez (hopefully he stays) Lopez, and at least two of Mahle, Maeda, and Gray. Others?

Agree, the FO was putting chips down in the hope that we could make a run with CC, and now maybe Swanson. But the old “young core” is over, done. We did not get it done with BB, MK, MS, JP, and JB (who rightfully left earlier). Mahle was a Hail Mary to try to save last season (that backfired) plus a bet CC would return this year (that backfired too). And resigning CC was more about a competitive rebuild - I think he even understood he was going to be a key cog in getting the new young guys developed. With CC this team would have a had a shot in ‘23, but would really would have been developing for a more open window in ‘24-‘26. That’s the bet the FO was willing to make by paying big money on a long term deal for CC.

Disagree. Arraez is basically the face of the franchise right now (sorry 100 game Buxton). He’s not being traded.

Agree 100%. Both will be; Julien as well.

Yeah, it always felt like that. I wanted CC a lot, but it’s not like I can forget how worthless he was at the plate when we really needed him. September just felt like garbage time in an NFL game. Swanson would still be a great pickup. A Farmer solution feels like a just a placeholder waiting on a good, but risky, bet. Without CC or Swanson, I’m not sure it makes sense to break the bank on the other Carlos. We need to face facts: we really weren’t that competitive with CC and the lineup we are projecting without him is not an upgrade. We were realistically in somewhat of a rebuild anyway for the next year or two and now that is even more true. Rodon will not lead us to the promised land any more than CC would have. Nope, it’s probably time to implement that time honored small/mid market strategy - build up a young solid core at bargain rates and then splurge a bit when the window looks like it is opening. Sad, but that’s the reality of being a franchise like the Twins in a non-salary cap league.

Correa to the Giants. $350MM over 13 years

This is a good point, but I’m salivating over several years of an infield of CC, Lewis, and Lee, with Arraez and Miranda at 1B/DH and Julien as a swing infielder. If its Swanson instead of CC, so be it. In either case, we have great positional flexibility with a super mix of defense and offense. Also, other than CC or Swanson and a bit of Arraez, the rest of that infield/DH is super cheap and the overall cost is very attractive. Moreover, signing either CC or Swanson hedges us out on prospect risk.

Another difference - he’s probably $10MM/year cheaper which is worth a really good relief pitcher each year. Hard to say all things considered - including the intangibles and opportunity cost of money (which is a real thing to a mid market franchise like the Twins) - which player overall would contribute more. Love CC, but Swanson is also a very, very good baseball player. I’d still take CC as the franchise face alongside Buxton. However, if Swanson ends up being our guy on a shorter, cheaper deal with fewer opt outs or no trade clauses, we shouldn’t be upset.

Get rid of the shift, throw in a short RF porch, add a gold glove, and you have the perfect fit for Kepler in the Bronx. We’ll take back Rortvedt and a decent reliever.

$73MM CBP. Crazy, but true….

Agreed. Hope I’m wrong but if Correa signs elsewhere, this off-season looks very bleak. Our FO will likely cap it off by trading Arraez and then when Buxton gets hurt again we can all watch some extremely low octane baseball. We keep our payroll powder dry at well under $100MM and try to put butts in seats selling the youth movement. But 2023 need not be a complete write-off if: 1) Polanco, Kepler, and probably Mahle, are traded by the deadline and 2) we get to see a lot of Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Wallner, SWR, Varland, Henriquez, and Sands. A marginally competitive rebuild in 2023 is looking more like a possibility with every passing day…..

…..and 6) the sun needs to start rising in the west.

Exactly. You nailed it. The goal is to win a lot of 1-0 games? With a five inning starter and our pen? Yeah, trade Luis and lose all our better hitters - let’s see how many fans want to watch that. I watched nearly every Twins game last season - right up to the end. The two hitters I made sure to watch each at bat were BB and LA. For me, that was must see TV. Right now the three most popular Twins are Buxton, Correa and Arraez. Twins strategy to put butts in the seats? Play one for 50 games, lose another to free agency, and trade the third for a pitcher who throws 5-6 innings a game every 5 games.

I’m all for advanced stats. But my eye test tells me when we had runners on or runners on in scoring position last season, Luis was by far the Twin we wanted at the plate. He was also the Twin most opposing pitchers did not want to see at the plate in those situations. Luis is a tough out and by far the toughest out - especially when it matters - on a team chock full of easy outs. We want Lopez? A one year guy (albeit a really good one year) with rotator cuff history? Offer the Marlins Kepler and Polanco. I know they wouldn’t take either, or even both, of those declining names. But don’t trade the one guy on the team who makes the opposing pitchers work the hardest and consistently produces at the plate when it most matters.

Technically Gordon? Gordon is our best performing all around outfielder and it’s not really close.

$25MM a year 11 years from now is only about $10-12MM in today’s $s at most. Plus revenues/budgets/salaries will more than double as well over that period, and by 2034 Bogaerts will be getting paid less than a mop up reliever or a third catcher. The question for a number of owners is not annual cash flow; instead it’s mostly equity value growth coupled with ego.

As of now, any of Dollander, Crews, Langford, Gonzalez, or Bradfield will do fine. Those are probably the top 5 college picks and we have #5. Ideally Dollander or Langford (Crews is the most unlikely) falls to us. What a great stroke of luck that lottery was.

Let’s face it, it was always going to be hard for the Giants to compete with that short right field fence in NY. I can imagine that Judge told the Giants he’d sign with them, but they’d have to move the right field wall in - lol.

Prices are very high this year. With the Giants and Cubs supposedly all in on CC, it will be hard for the Twins to compete. Still hopeful though. Shouldn’t be long before we know.

Last year Lee miraculously fell to us at 8. For 2023, at the moment I’m hoping the Tennessee pitcher Dollander or Florida power hitting OF Langford somehow is there for us at 5. But they certainly wouldn’t be there at 13!

It kinda depends on the strategy. To me it feels like 2023 is going to be a “let’s pretty much run the same guys up the flagpole one last time” type of year. Assuming we resign CC, we basically swap out Urshela for Farmer and get a different #2 catcher (probably cheaper but not as good). Kepler is definitely part of this strategy. You could reasonably argue that the expectation for each position player should be improved over last season. CC - full ST, back on schedule. BB - healthier. MK - the shift is adios. JP - healthier. JM - upward trajectory. RJ - slowing, but still upward, trajectory. LA - just coming into his own NG - upward trajectory. AK and TL - back from injuries. KF and new #2 C - more or less Urshela/Sanchez equivalent If they all stay healthy, it’s fair to expect this position player team should outperform last year’s and there is a reasonable argument that each player, including Kepler, is poised to have a better season. So Kepler stays for now. If the Twins are healthy but aren’t contending by the TD, expect Max and Jorge to be moved. And, if they both are playing well, their trade values may actually be higher. Side note: this strategy is fairly equivalent to the 2022 Vikings - the previous season we way underperformed, so it makes sense to pretty much run the same, many ageing and somewhat expensive players back for one more shot. Of course, the Vikings applied this strategy in conjunction with a move at the helm.

If he wants to raise his family and live his life in the Bay Area, that’s his choice. Besides the weather, the place is a disaster. Lived there for 23 years. Lived the last seven about 2 hours south. Won’t even visit there. Literally, the last place my children - Correa’s age - would move to raise their children. Minnesota is way better. A marginal $1-2MM/year (less after tax) is just not worth it. Just my opinion. Sorry if I offended anyone.