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Nashvilletwin

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  1. Nashvilletwin
    I think that’s more or less the plan and the one they will try to sell to the fans. You nailed it. The only part with which I partly disagree is “this group is good enough to be leading the Central by the end of July”. Even if everyone is healthy - which we all dearly hope, but know is not likely - the true goal for this team has to be a realistic contender for the Pennant and this team is not that. It could be if the players were a) much better at the fundamentals (you know, running, hitting, catching, and throwing); b) the manager was capable of winning more games than losing based on his in-game decisions; and c) the team could get over the mental block of competing against the better teams, notably, the Yankees, Astros and now the Guardians. But we will have none of those things in 2023 as the team leadership is currently constructed and avowed by senior management to remain in place.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Last week I posted that maybe a more complete rebuild is the smart way to go. This article truly points out why that probably makes the most sense. But in reality it will not happen. Instead, the internal strategy (btw, never to be publicly announced) will be a “reactive” or “wait and see” rebuild. The FO, seemingly with the Pohlads’ approval, will hope that most, if not all of these players, will return to health and try to convince all of us that this will result in a contending team. After all, attendance is in the tank and there is currently little evidence that a rebound is on the horizon (the economy is getting worse and a lot of fans - individual and corporate - either are or will be cutting back, people still don’t want to go downtown, and this poor fundamentals, antiseptic team is not much fun to watch). They could never announce a rebuild, particularly with the same manager - they’d be looking at a sub 1.5MM ticket year if they did. So they will not spend big in FA, run out the same manager, and pray that everyone gets healthy. Other than the manager part, it’s not a stupid strategy. If it works, then maybe the team can contend for a while in the middling central and on the margin the attendance is ok. If it doesn’t and several or many of these (and other) players don’t return to form, then the rebuild alternative is there and they can switch to the “look at all these exciting young prospects” advertising strategy (i.e. look for several Eddie Bane type promotions starting in early summer once school is out). Again, other than the manager and his staff, it’s probably the right strategic move. If it works, great. If not, then we start the “rebuild” mid year and a lot of those players who are part of the rebuild probably need another 1/2 year in the minors anyway. Expectations for 2023 should be tempered.
  3. Nashvilletwin

    High Marks??

    Nashvilletwin commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Great post. Honestly, I do not understand how the Pohlads put up with this mutual admiration society. First it’s Falvine giving Rocco a pass and now its St. Peter giving the FO/Falvine a pat on the back. The Pohlad family, given all they have accomplished, must see that the day-to-day management of this aspect of their many businesses has significantly underperformed. I mean they’re not blind and they didn’t just fall off a turnip truck - they are savvy, smart business people. Two serious questions: 1, Is the Twins organization better off at the end of this season (i.e. better positioned to compete next year and in the foreseeable future) than they were last year? 2. Even if so, were the opportunities seized to maximise that improvement or were those opportunities squandered? The answer to the first is most certainly no. Sure, Lee fell in their laps (like it took rocket science to draft him at their slot - lol), and Ryan, Miranda, Duran, Arreaz, and Gordon overperformed vis-a-vis expectations. What’s the next big accomplishment? Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Archer, Bundy, Pagan, Sanchez, Mahle, Lopez, and even Correa (at $35MM when things mattered) were basically unmitigated disasters. Btw, who among this group can be realistically expected to be back better next year (maybe Jeffers - that’s it). The team’s ability to run, throw and catch worsened. The team’s psyche to compete with the better teams continued its free fall as we added the Guardians to a team that mentally has our number. The minor league system dropped in the rankings. Even if some apologists can in their own minds rationalise a “yes” to the first question, there is no chance for a “yes” to the second. I just can’t believe the Pohlads do not see how poorly this team has performed and how the entire organization has fallen behind under the current management.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    No vitriol - just business. His signing with us was actually a shrewd roll of the dice by the FO - maybe we catch fire and wind up competing (which, btw, we did until the other not so shrewd FO’s pitching moves, Rocco’s management, bad fundamentals and injuries caught up with us). The FO deserves a lot of applause on the CC signing for sure. The question (certainly inevitable now given CC’s strong post contention performance) is what does the FO do? I see five possibilities: 1. Sign CC to a minimum 8 year deal @ at least $30MM per year. 2. Sign CC to a 5 year deal at closer to $40MM per year. 3. Sign a different SS to a more “reasonable” short-mid term deal. 4. Use the cash to sign FA pitching and try to compete next year with an in-house SS strategy while waiting for a home grown SS in 2024. 5. Save a lot of cash and basically “rebuild” in 2023 developing Lee or Lewis as your SS of the future. The first three choices are possible if the FO doesn’t see a long term SS in the organization who will be ready by 2024 and a one-year in-house stop gap solution isn’t viable. However, #1 isn’t likely - not the Twins way; #2 is what I’d hope for, but not sure CC goes for it with longer term deals on the table; and #3, to really move the dial, would take another unique situation, but we’ve now seen this film a couple of times and it’s not really worked. The last two make more sense if Lewis or Lee or someone else (Polacios or Miller perhaps) is viewed as the long-term SS. #4 is way more likely than #5 as this FO with the Pohlads support will never be in a publicly announced rebuilding mode (see our attendance numbers) and there will be a lot of cash available with CC and others moving on. And #4 could work with the right FA starter/relief pitching signings, a healthy Buxton, and another veteran FA signing like Cruz was. So we hope for #2, but in reality #3 or #4 are more likely and could be better options anyway. Please note, however, none of these work if the FO and Rocco don’t up their games in a big way, the new young core don’t develop, the team doesn’t somehow play better fundamental baseball, and we can’t significantly cut down on the injuries.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Thank you for the outstanding coverage of our minor league teams throughout the season. I enjoyed reading your summaries every morning. Well done and much appreciated.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Add Mahle too…..lol.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Hate to say it, but could the prudent move in 2023 be to essentially rebuild? I’m not necessarily advocating for it, but there might be some logic to the strategy. Hear me out. 1. Correa is gone - huge hole at SS to be filled by possibly three young players - Polacios, Lewis, and Lee. Let those three play as much as possible and as time is earned. 2. The new “core” all need rehab and/or seasoning to see what we really have. This might take some time. The new core includes Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Miranda, Gordon, and, yes, Wallner. Maybe Celestino. 3. Mahle and Maeda are big ifs. Several up and comer starters need to time to prove themselves. Don’t want to waste a season of Gray and Ryan, but Gray seems a bit unhappy anyway and will probably be moved by the deadline (could be the same with Mahle and Maeda too once we are not contending). 4. The prior core - Buxton, Kepler, Sano, and Polanco - will likely only contribute 80-100 or so games next year. The transition is past full swing - it’s actually nearing its conclusion. 5. Great time to reset with a new manager and maybe FO too. The Pohlads have to recognise that Rocco is not the guy to lead a young, mid market club - just not enough fundamentals, ongoing player development, confidence against good teams and solid in-game managerial decisions. Bring in a new leader to get a year under his belt and start to put a new stamp on this team. 6. Can we realistically expect to beat an ascending, young, well-managed Guardians team next year? Hate to say it, but we are not one or two players away from achieving competitive advantage vs. Cleveland or several of the big spending teams. Lets see what Correa does, because this may be the fulcrum on which the decision to retool or not in 2023 turns. But it might not be silly to run a much younger team under new management up the flagpole next season. Couldn’t do any worse than this year, And besides, we will have new uniforms and scoreboard to add to the fun…
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Yep, that may be possible. Ideally, we put the right staff and processes in place to get more development and longevity out of the next three: Kiriloff, Larnach, and Jeffers. If you’re the Pohlads, aren’t you livid? Someone has to be accountable or is this just another one of those “luck” things. Sorry, this a Kepler thread…..
  9. Nashvilletwin
    A lot of decisions may depend on Correa and whether Max stays or goes could be one. If Correa stays, Max may be more likely to be dealt to get back a more valuable pitching asset or just free up capital for a FA reliever or two. If Correa departs, more cash is available already and Max’s veteran presence may be a bit more valuable. If he were dealt, what does our outfield look like next year? The most likely candidates: Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon, Wallner, and Celestino. The first three are made of glass, the fourth is a converted IF who probably deserves to play everyday, the fifth has plate upside and a huge arm but reminds me a bit of Delmon trying to catch the ball, and the sixth is strictly a utility player at this point. Is that “contender” capable? Can we even get by with that? Max is one of my favourite Twins. Regardless of Correa, I’d probably move him though to redeploy the cash into a shutdown pen as well to focus on ascending players (Max, unfortunately, is more likely descending - another example of a good, young Twin whom we couldn’t get to continue his upward trajectory),
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Ted, your points are solid and it will likely be the case that the FO and Rocco are back. Here are a few thoughts though. First, there will (should) be a “massive” lineup shakeup before Opening Day 2023. Correa, Sanchez, Urshela, Kepler, Sano, Bundy, Archer, Pagan plus maybe one or two more will in all likelihood be gone. Those are eight players that were essentially “starters” when the season began. These departures open up a lot of cash for FAs and opportunity for younger players. Second, what exactly has our manager and coaching staff done to build confidence in our ownership that they are the right people to lead a new, substantially revamped lineup? Do they have exhibit the in-game strategies/decision-making to “steal” more wins than they lose? How are they at getting the team to play solid fundamental baseball (a must for any mid-market team)? What’s been their ability for keeping players on the field (or is that just luck anyway)? What is their track record for developing young major leaguers (Miranda, Gordon and Arraez seem to have positive momentum, but Kepler, Sano, Berrios, and others stagnated badly and the jury is still out on others like Kiriloff, Larnach, and Jeffers)? Is a good clubhouse enough and are we certain that is even the case (I have no reason to doubt it’s the case). Any objective analysis would conclude that the coaching staff has underperformed, perhaps significantly, in these areas. Unless some massive improvements occur (and, again, what evidence is there that is possible), there is little chance that a mid-market team like the Twins led by Rocco can realistically contend. If it’s a package deal - the FO and Rocco together - then you are probably correct: they both stay and we should not expect anything other than another “wait ‘til next year” in 2023, But if I’m the FO (and certainly the Pohlads), I’m not sure I’d want to hitch my wagon to the current coaching staff - remember, they have careers and a business to run too.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Trade Kepler for a bag of sand if that’s all you get. The salary savings will net us a great reliever or two possibly. The turnover coming is going to be huge: Sano, Max, Sanchez, Urshela, Archer, Bundy, and probably Correa - who am I missing? Polanco might not even be safe (but I think he will be). Think of the cash savings from this group that could be redeployed. Wallner is on the big club next year playing RF.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    The premise of the article is correct. The Twins were in a position to contend for the division and (commendably) made moves at the deadline to bolster a weak pitching unit. There are risks involved in making those moves and that’s part of the game. We all (should) get that. However, the two points the article misses are: a) the ability of the FO to assess the true level of risk prior to making the moves and b) the decisions made to put the team in the position of need to have to make such moves. Re the first, over the past several seasons, it’s pretty clear the FO has systematically underestimated the level of “risk” (injury and performance) of the pitchers acquired at the deadline. Can that really be debated or do we just always chalk it up to bad luck? Re the second, the poorer the construction of the pitching unit (and its hard not to argue that at this year’s deadline our pitching unit was in pretty bad shape), the more likely it will be that the FO’s ability to properly assess the risk will be impaired. Sorry, but bad moves upfront most certainly contribute to bad moves (i.e. poorer, less accurate risk assessment) later on. Risks exist - everyone understands. But shrewd FO’s are better able to assess the true levels of that risk.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Not sure, but I’m cheering for Arraez to win the batting title.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - not a pattern for the franchise - just this FO (you just listed four happening in the last couple of years, three of which could result in actually no benefit at all to the organization). Actually, I was just being a bit facetious, but I will admit I’m not a fan of the “bad luck” excuse - despite our bad luck on the injury front, this team was capable of much more this season.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    If I had a nickel….. Seriously, thanks for that. Hope he has a speedy and complete recovery.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    And you know this because…….? Obviously, nothing is certain, including any player’s health or extent of recovery from injury. A career ending injury would be tragic for the young man. Pray that’s not the case. Let’s hope he’s back better than ever; of course, starting next year at the top of our rotation (as opposed to 2024 at the top of another team’s rotation).
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Are we certain Mahle will be healthy next year? I’m not sure we know enough to slot him in the rotation, let alone at the top, quite yet. The entire situation just feels like classic Twins: big trade, immediate arm issues, il, rest, try to avoid surgery, come back to pitch a bit, reinjury, surgery, out for year, blah, blah, blah. Hope I’m wrong. Regardless, Ryan will be a big part of the rotation next year - deservedly.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Ryan has had a very fine rookie year. Take out just a handful of big innings, and it was exceptional. Well done Joe!
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Rec this. But would insert “a new manager and” in front of “full healthy…”. We’ve won one game vs. the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, and Guardians in the last 20 during a so-called pennant race. A single game (granted that’s one more than the playoff games we’ve won in about as many chances ….lol). Many of us TDers blame that on health. Not I. Nor should the Pohlads. Until we play better fundamental baseball than those teams, we will never be competitive - regardless of our health. And this team has never played consistent, solid fundamental baseball under Rocco whether in the field, at the plate, on the bases, or coaching from the bench. Not in a single facet. And there is no evidence to suggest that we will in the future. You want to get to the next level? Sure, better health is an important start. However, this team must perform better in all the little things that add up to multiple wins over a season and that only starts with new leadership in the dugout. I have confidence the Pohlads will see that.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    This. Sorry if the truth hurts.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Fundamentals - mistakes. Both by our players and manager. It’s our Achilles Heel. Has been, and always will be, under Rocco. And we will never win unless we are better at the fundamentals than the other teams. It’s not rocket science. Why can’t our ownership see that?
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Great catch by Cave. Ok, let’s stay hot. It ‘ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    #1 Frustration: playing poor fundamental baseball virtually day-in and day-out, especially when we know that, with our roster and injuries, superior fundamentals - from both the players and coaching staff - is our best chance to truly contend. Sure, we’ve had more than our share of injuries. Get it. But there are no excuses for bad fundamental baseball. None. Zilch. Nada. If this team had been fundamentally sound, we’d be winning the division - injuries or not. That is what is so frustrating. Figure out how to solve that in 2023 and see where that gets us.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    We are a mid market team. To compete with the larger market teams, we must do some things under the manager/coaching staff’s areas of responsibility extremely well and, hopefully, much better than others. Those include: 1. Playing/managing strong fundamental baseball day in and day out. 2. Have strong team chemistry - confidence and camaraderie. 3. Continue to develop young players once they make the big leagues. (A number 4. is health - keeping your players on the field. I’m not sure whose responsibility that is - coaching staff or FO. Either way, it’s been a disaster obviously). Objectively, how has the this staff under Rocco performed in these areas? 1. We have never played strong fundamental baseball under Rocco. Never. Also, no one would ever call Rocco a strong in-game manager. Sure, he’s had his moments, but overall, it’s not his forte. 2. No playoff victories. We just went 1-13 vs. the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, and Guardians over the past month or so in the midst of a pennant race. Camaraderie? Perhaps. Confidence? None. Rocco has not been able to get his teams past the mental block of being able to compete with the better teams. 3. Which young Twins under Rocco have developed to their potential? Certainly the jury is still out on a couple, notably Miranda and Gordon (trend is positive). But how many more have stagnated or failed? If you want to consistently win, you must have your young talent continue to improve and get the most out of them - I’m not sure I see the track record of that under Rocco. Rocco has won more games than lost. No doubt, he has done a lot of good things. The question is: is he the guy to deliver a consistent contender for a Pennant? Unless he substantively improves in key areas managing/leading a well-positioned mid-market club, the answer is likely (and objectively) no.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Apologies upfront if this post may be TLDR for many. Nick, this a well written post that describes in great detail the enormous hurdles that injuries put in front of this team. Thank you. Your post raises two questions for me. The first, were these enormous hurdles in fact insurmountable? The second, what does this mean in terms of the future leadership of the team? There are many, and it appears you are in this camp, that would answer yes to the first. There are many other TDers, perhaps the minority, who are tremendously sympathetic with the argument, but cannot out of hand dismiss the managerial, player and front office blunders that certainly contributed to many victories being left on the table. But, IMHO, the question is moot from a “blame” standpoint; we are where we are and what matters is where we go from here. The Twins are a well-positioned mid market organization. We have excellent owners, facilities, farm system, and tradition. We have access to capital, albeit not unlimited, to acquire the occasional high priced FA player. We have a tremendous roster of young, up-and-coming players. So, specifically, what does it take for a mid market organization such as ours to consistently and realistically compete with the big market teams and the smart/shrewd/well-run small-mid market teams for the Pennant. Here are a few thoughts re the criteria: 1. Consistent development of big leaguers through the system. 2. FO excellence in trades, FA acquisitions, and player retention. 3, Strong fundamental baseball from players and coaches in all aspects of the game. 4. Maximizing the potential of the players who make it to the Show. 5. Health - keeping the players on the field (and it’s all not just luck). 6. Team culture of confidence, camaraderie, accountability and commitment. The small-mid market teams that do these things well will be the ones competing for championships against the larger market clubs. If you don’t do these things well, teams like the Twins will be destined for mediocrity. So to address the second question, perhaps it makes sense to open-mindedly evaluate how our FO and coaching staff have performed, and realistically could be expected to perform, in these areas. Perhaps other than the first, one could argue that the Twins owners should seek substantive improvement from existing or new leadership if these are truly criteria for success.
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