Nashvilletwin

A lockdown pen, given our “two times through the order” starter strategy and one dimensional, low run scoring offense is a must if we even remotely want to contend. I’ve got the under on Pagan being a key part of a lockdown pen. The argument for Pagan reminds me a bit of the old Mike Marshall days. He’d blow a save and his pedantic response was usually ‘Hey, he hit a quality pitch”. Yeah, a quality pitch that cost us the game. Pagan sounds like the new Mike Marshall except Pagan fortunately doesn’t get 90 appearances in a season.

Nothing is better than Gilligan’s Island reruns……

The “M” hates are horrible. Just flat out horrible. I’m just trying to imagine Pagan wearing one - what a nightmare that is. Buxton looks like a stud in the Twin Cities uni. I think that will be a best seller and a smart move by the club.

Just saw that the FO had Polanco modelling the new uniforms alongside Miranda, Buxton, Arraez, and Ryan. Polanco stays until the deadline.

Two down (Sano and Urshela) and one more (Kepler) and possible another (Polanco) to go. Cleaning house, redeploying cash, and making room for young players. Things are just starting…..

100% expected. Had them tendering all eight, so the trade of Urshela was the only mild surprise. Four of the tendered players were pitchers the Twins acquired in trades. For each, some of the “value” was the tender option so that each could be on the club through at least 2023. So the FO doubles down on their trades even though all four have been major disappointments to date. We shall see if any of them meaningfully contribute to the Twins. I’m pulling for each of them - but, to be honest, I’ve got the under on all four. Hope I’m wrong.

Good creative thoughts and ideas, Keep in mind, in four years $40MM now will only be worth about $25MM in “cost” to the Twins given inflation and revenue expansion. We could just keep it simple too - 8 years @ $40MM/yr with a player opt out after year 3. By then Lee, Lewis or Miller will be the new Correa and we will have won at least two WS anyway….

Love most of this. You could/should move Polanco as well. But there is no way I’m trading Brooks Lee. That kid has “it”. Lee falling to us might just end up like JJ falling to the Vikes.

Sometimes fate just hands you an unexpected treasure. There is no way Justin Jefferson should have fallen to the Vikings at #22 in the 2020 draft. Just like Lee shouldn’t have fallen to the Twins in last year’s draft. Maybe Lee is the Twins’ JJ……..just have a feeling about it,

Sorry, forgot Miranda. It’s hard to keep track of all our young talent! We ideally have some good competition brewing over the next couple of years.

Both are great prospects, but if we have to split hairs I’d go Lee as 1A and Lewis as 1B. My hope is that neither one is our starting SS for the next 5 years - that’s Correa. But each could still start - one at 2B and the other at 3B, Regardless of ranking, the Twins have five non pitching prospects who should constitute the new young core on the ‘24 team: Lee, Lewis, Martin, Julien, and Wallner. All need to find playing time in the bigs next season - Lee has the pedigree to be rushed a bit. Assuming Buxton, Correa, Arraez, Jeffers and Gordon (he’s proven his spot) are still around, that’s 10 position players. An additional C and hopefully Kiriloff and Larnach round out our top 13. Celestino is still young too. If Correa is signed, Lee and Lewis mean Urshela and Polanco could be gone before the deadline (unless we are contending).

Exactly - if the team is committed to a strategy of 2x through the order or 5 innings at most for the starting staff - and there is no reason to think that is not the case - then that leaves about 45-50% of available innings to be filled. Add into that the facts that none of our starters are true #1 types and our offence isn’t what could be called prolific, and it turns out we are usually in a tight game or losing when our starter is pulled. Therefore, you’d better have a great pen if you want to compete for the pennant. There is no other choice. So we shouldn’t lay up in pen investment if that’s what it takes. We really could use three too notch relievers to add to the current squad.

RC, I like where you are headed here and disagree with TopGunn that this wouldn’t sell to the fans. Buxton/Correa and new rookies will sell at the beginning. These are Minnesota fans - winning will keep selling later in the year; losing won’t sell regardless of who’s on the team. A couple of thoughts: 1. Kiriloff instead of Garlick, lefty bat notwithstanding. He could start in RF with Larnach in LF. Martin and Gordon are the primary RH bats off the bench or against a lefty starter. 2. There is room still for Lewis and Lee later in the year. In fact, I think with those two and no Garlick and Celestino, your position player lineup is pretty much how this team is going to look come late August. 3. Maeda starts - SP3. So it’s Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan and Ober with SWR, Winder, Varland, Dobnak, etc. waiting in the wings, 4. I like Fulmer, but even with him we still need two more really good, reliable, non-injured RPs to add to this group to replace Maeda and Winder. 5. Are there really no better C options than Sanchez at $8MM? 6. I’d like to see whom we could get for Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela - maybe one or two SP4/5 types, one or two RPs, or a C to address some of points 3-5 above. Good job.

Prediction: Given good health, Julien, Martin, Lewis, Wallner, and maybe even Lee (for Lee it’s just timing as he has the biggest upside of this group) will be on and contributing to the big club by the the end of August. That means Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela will be gone. Celestino will be in AAA.

Although torn, I hope we sign Correa. $300MM/8 years. A couple of reasons: 1. The old saying rings true: a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. Meaning Correa > Lewis and Lee. 2. However, when Lewis and Lee turn out to be exceptional major leaguers, and I fully expect they will, we have room for them at 3rd and 2nd, respectively (which may be their optimal positions anyway). 3. A 2024 infield (including a backup) of Correa at $37.5MM with Arraez at $5MM and Lewis, Lee, and Miranda at $700k each is not too expensive and has great positional flexibility as needed. 4. By the second half of the contract, the numbers won’t hurt much at all given salary escalation, inflation, etc. 5. Buxton is the only other position player making any serious coin - some combination of Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Wallner, Jeffers, Julien and Martin will likely comprise most of the remaining position player slots and all will be on league minimum and under team control for a while in 2024. 6. We have the money; in fact, points #3-5 above indicate we still have plenty of cash to add quality players on the mound and perhaps behind the plate. We will need pitching to win, but there is still cash available. 7. With the way the team is currently comprised and the outlook for the next several years, right now is an excellent time to pull the trigger on Correa. 8. Oh, and he’s really, really good and a strong leader (which this club truly needs).

Rec this. The Twins are basically quite poor at all of Martin’s best attributes: OBP, base stealing, not striking out. The game is headed in that direction. He will be a valuable RH bat at the top of the order along with Arraez, Lee, Lewis. and Julien. Or he could be that spark in the 9th spot. There are lots of potential fielding spots for him - even as a super utility playing 4-6 times per week. Of course, we could just trade another one of our leading young prospects for a starter or reliever with an injury history…. Keep him for now for sure.

Mahle was supposed to be the Woodruff of ‘23, right? So do we now need Woodruff too because we have have no confidence that Mahle is going to be even close to what we thought we paid for? Or do we need to trade away more young talent because we are just one strong starter to complement Mahle away from competing for a pennant in ‘23? So let’s just keep gutting the future to cover up the FO’s pitcher developmental weaknesses and trading mistakes. The Brewers can have Mahle, Paddock, and Pagan back instead - two front line starters and a high leverage reliever should get it done, no? Sorry, it’s Friday morning and I should be in a better mood. But the Brewers are not taking option #2 and that was the only option listed even remotely worth considering from our perspective.

Glad you like “being by the water” Brooks - we’ve got lots of water here in Minnesota and we hope you enjoy our lakes and rivers for a long, long time.

The previous “young core” - Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and Berrios - couldn’t get it done outside of one really fun, special year. I’ve truly enjoyed watching them so much over the past several years. Thanks gents. The Twins moved on from Berrios obviously (and smartly) earlier, but it’s now time to transition away from the other three. All are descending players with none having reached their true potential (Polanco being the closest). Their resignings were prescient, but the inability of the organization to continue to build upon their performance trajectory is what is most disappointing. For a mid-market team like the Twins, ongoing player development must become a source of differentiated competitive advantage. Hopefully lessons were learned and we do better with the new “young core” of Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Jeffers, Miranda, Gordon, Arraez, Wallner, and even Celestino. Each of those players has a solid, if not very high, ceiling.

Rec this. Sage words from an Old-Timey TD member.

Love Max - one of my favourite Twins. But he doesn’t appear to be an ascending player at this point. Instead, the hitting data would suggest the opposite. Max trade value for Max is probably more near term than mid-term. Pull the trigger on a trade, redeploy the capital, and provide space for the new young core. The old young core - Kepler, Sano, Polanco, and Berrios - will likely all be gone by the trade deadline at the latest. Leider Max, aber es ist Zeit “Auf Wiedersehen” zu sagen. Viel Glueck mein Freund.

Agree 100%. There has been a lot of angst on the TD about whether any of our up-and-comers (Lewis, Lee, Martin, and even Miller) can stick at SS. So, why would we want to spend upwards of $30MM for someone to play mediocre SS for a couple of years and them move to 3B? If that’s the case, we’d a) be way overpaying for our 3rd baseman, b) still have to solve SS, and c) be blocking one of our top targets (who’d be making 700k). Sign Correa. We have the money and in 8 years $30MM will only really be about $15MM. Besides, with our new young core manning lots of roster spots, we’d have plenty of cash left over for pitching FAs - a SP and a few quality relievers.

Agree. The Twins have seven solid young infielder prospects/major leaguers: Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Martin. You could throw in Jeffers as well behind the dish. This should be our next, new young “core” (replacing Sano, Kepler and Polanco) arriving at different times but all together as a unit probably in ‘24. Hopefully Kiriloff, Larnach and Wallner are part of the gang too. This group has a strong mix of pop, speed, OBP, and interchangeability/positional flexibility (for example, Gordon and Martin could be highly productive “super utilities”). Cheap too. Add Correa and get 100 games out of Buxton in CF and this looks like a strong lineup with enough cash to build a pitching staff to maintain a true open window for at least a couple of years. The key is to get these young players the coaching, training, and innings to keep (and continuously) developing their potential. We can’t afford Sano and Kepler type plateauings.

Would this be a contending position player lineup in ‘24 (and the next few years as well) from both a competitive and realistic budget perspective? Interchangeable Infield and DH as Needed (Total: $47.1) Correa SS ($35). Lewis 3B ($0.7). Lee 2B ($0.7). Arraez 1B ($5.0). Miranda DH ($0.7) Interchangeable Outfield and DH as Needed (Total: $17.1) Buxton CF ($15). Larnach LF ($0.7). Kiriloff RF ($0.7). Wallner RF/LF ($0.7). Backup CF/Super Utility and DH as Needed (Total: $1.4) Gordon CF/Other ($0.7). Martin CF/Other ($0.7) Catcher (Total: $1.4) Jeffers ($0.7). Backup - TBD ($0.7) 13 Position Players (Total: $67.0) This lineup has speed, power, BA, OBP, fielding, throwing, flexibility, depth, RH and LH bats, vets and youth at a very reasonable price. And it wouldn’t need to change much for several years. Lots of cash ($75 give or take) available for pitching as well. Conclusion: sign Correa if we can.

A couple of questions: 1. How many of the 10 year deals for 28-30 year old players look good after year 7 or so? There must be data on that, right? 2. Having said that, how much is $35MM/year really worth in years 8-10 anyway? With inflation, tv revenue growth, etc., that $35MM may only really be $15-$20MM equivalent. 3. If we win one WS in that time frame, do the Pohlads really care? The FO? 4. Sure we have some solid SS talent in the organization (Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Miller), but isn’t, as the adage says, a bird in the hand better than two in the bush? 5. Signing CC is not incongruent with many, if not all, of those prospects playing huge roles on the Twins. In ‘24 would we not be thrilled with the four infield spots and DH covered interchangeably by Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda and Arraez? And with Martin and Gordon in the super utility roles, specifically backing up Buxton in CF with a combo of Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner or a new RH bat in the corner OF positions? 6. With Urshela, Kepler, Sano and Polanco gone, and with all of the essentially league minimum young talent among the position players, isn’t this the time to spend? Even more so if we believe in our young SP talent? 7. Isn’t signing CC the message you want to send to your fan base in a tough economic environment? Conclusion: Aggressively pursuing CC makes sense. Even if the last few years are a disaster, the deterioration of the true dollar cost over time coupled with matching the high CC salary with the low salaries of our young core over the near to mid-term makes the risk worthwhile. But let’s not be disappointed if we don’t land him - there are still many alternative, compelling strategies for pursuing a title we can pursue.