Nashvilletwin

Very disappointing start to the season. Yes, it’s still early, but it’s not as if we can forget that last year was over before it really began. So we are human to think that way and I’m sure some in the Twins organization might have similar thoughts cropping up. Two quick things: 1. Rocco’s seat should be getting a bit warm. He has not demonstrated that knack for making the right calls in the tight games. Also, I worry about the intensity and focus of his ball clubs. Maybe it’s just me, but Gordon just seemed slightly lackadaisical on his throw to second in the 9th yesterday. Sure, that’s on Gordon, but Rocco as well. Moreover, I can’t think of one young player that’s developed to potential while up in the bigs. That is a really big deal with a club that could get very young in the near future. 2. It’s not all bad news. Think about the cash and new player haul we will have next year when we DFA Sano and Sanchez, and trade Kepler, Urshela, and Correa. Add in Miranda, Lewis, Martin, Maeda, and a few of our pitching prospects and we should be in good shape for a nice several year run. So chin up - there’s really no downside.

A few thoughts: 1. Tomorrow is opening day and I’m stoked. 2. Anything we do this year is gravy; I’m not swayed by the head fake that this is our year quite yet. So, IMHO, anyone that isn’t going to be around for ‘23-‘25 can be moved - including Rogers and Rooker - for some players who might be. 3. By the trade deadline, that list could be quite long: Correa, Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, etc. Maybe not though - here’s hoping. 4. Here’s hoping the we let the kids play - Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Celestino, and, later in the year, Lewis. Eventually, our vaunted list of young starters are going to have to get some innings too.

What about all this pitching depth we are supposed to have? What about all the prospects knocking on the door? We have less outfield depth than we all might think - BB gets hurt and Max is about average (below average hitter). At the moment we are hurting in LF given Kiriloff should be a 1B. Hopefully they send us a catcher. Maybe we can throw in Sanchez.

Did we DFA the wrong catcher? It’s not as silly a question as it sounds. Points for Godoy: he is better defensively and possibly offensively (albeit light hitting). Also, we were prepared to roll with Rortvedt as C2 post the Garver trade and Godoy, as described by many in this site, is about like Rortvedt. Points for Sanchez: he was good three years ago, our FO traded for him, he might rebound, and he costs about $8MM.

So, does this mean Sanchez doesn’t DH and is essentially a back up C? Or on the vast majority of days that Jeffers is behind the dish, do we roll with Sanchez at DH and hope we don’t need to put a pitcher at the plate. Sounds like Kiriloff is going to play a lot of 1B, Sano at DH, and Sanchez at C2. Thats lots of $ to pay a C2. Geez, I really hate what we’ve done to our catching skill base and depth.

Excellent article. Here’s hoping the Jeffers’ train starts to gain serious speed. A little side note of import. C depth is critical - good catchers are not only hard to find, but are hard to keep healthy. The Yankees were all set to platoon Rortvedt as C2 this year, but he developed an oblique strain. Thus, they were forced to traded two pitching prospects for a Godoy type from the Rangers. Point being - C injuries happens - often. Although we dearly hope the opposite, we should not expect Jeffers to last the year unscathed. Or said differently, there is a real - definitely non-zero - possibility we will be relying heavily on our back up Cs this year. Overall, this off-season C went from an area of strength to one of weakness and risk (i.e. the bet Jeffers BOTH produces and stays healthy - there shouldn’t even be a line on the Sanchez “change of scenery” scenario). We should not expect above average play from Sanchez either offensively or defensively and Godoy, who really is, or should be, C2, is kinda an older, slightly poorer version of Rortvedt - meh. I love we added Correa. But it appears he fell in our laps and gave the FO a huge kick save. We should’ve been able to move JD without ruining our C depth.

DFA

That would be like the poor woman who backed into the airplane propeller: “Dis-assed-her”

Agree with the conclusion. Unless Max can regain his form at the plate, he will be gone when some combo (note: it will take two because the first gets LF) of Martin, Larnach, Celestino, Lewis, Wallner, et al emerge as true starting corner outfielders. Kiriloff, btw, should be our long term 1st baseman. Actually, it’s really too bad. Max is very likeable and his D is great. I hope he has a great season.

Ted, great post. You know way more than I, but B or B+ seems about right. I liked the Gray trade quite a lot. That is a solid A- given the desire to compete this year and the risk associated with the high school arm. Correa was a fantastic addition obviously, but there is a high probability that it is a one year deal or less (it’s very possible still that we move him by the deadline if we are not contending). Thus, if Lewis is not ready to be a SS in the bigs next year, then we are back to square one. On the other hand, just maybe things work out and Correa is here for awhile. There is a lot of upside - we contend this year, move him for good longer term players, or he stays - vs. the downside of he leaves after one year (which we should only let happen if we are contending and can’t sign him to a new contract) or doesn’t perform. I think the upside cases are way more likely. Grade A. However, the Correa signing felt a lot like a huge kick save after the Yankees trade. Just hated that trade. We decimated our catching depth (remember, Garver’s move ended up being part of this deal) and brought in two expensive reclamation projects. I’m higher on Urshela, but he still is blocking our most ready prospect. Sanchez was being touted in the NY press as being a likely DFA candidate. It took way more than expected to get rid of JD’s deal, but we still took on $17MM or so in the two Yankees. If Jeffers doesn’t perform, we are extraordinarily thin at C. I hope Urshela and Sanchez do well, but it’s highly likely Sanchez is one and done as a Twin and Urshela is an expensive utility player in ‘23, if not sooner. Grade C- The other three signings are just “meh” and if one produces, then the three all together will be a success. Very possible but that should be the expectation. Grade B. Overall, if we had just spent a bit more to keep JD (until we could move him) and our two catchers, signed Correa and done the pitching moves as well, we’d be better off. That team would be more of a contender this year and better positioned going forward. I so hope I’m wrong, but I’m just not feeling the value of Urshela and Sanchez.

1. If Jeffers starts at C and Sanchez is in the lineup as the DH, an injury to Jeffers means Sanchez would move to C and we would lose the DH (i.e. the pitcher would hit in that spot). 2. Godoy is a better defensive catcher and may be needed at various times for that skill vs. Sanchez. 3. Rocco and the FO won’t DFA or trade Sanchez no matter how badly he plays. So, unless Sanchez never DHs (which should be the case anyway but won’t be), we will need to carry three.

Lots of great comments - as usual. A few questions for us TDers: 1. Is Urshela that much better of a fielder than Arraez at 3B that he should keep Arraez’s superior bat out of the lineup more often than not? I’d argue - no. If Arraez is the DH, then of course Urshela is at 3B. But otherwise, in my book, we are stronger as a team with Arraez in the starting lineup at 3B. 2. If Godoy is a much superior defensive C than Sanchez and can hit 0.250 consistently (albeit lightly) vs. Sanchez hitting 0.210 with an OBA under 0.250, why would we ever start Sanchez at DH or C. Godoy should be our backup C unless Sanchez can prove he is that much better a hitter to make up for their disparity in catching skills. 3. Is Kepler that much of a better fielder than Larnach that you would start him in RF against lefties? It could be that Larnach could hit lefties (or righties for that matter) better than Kepler to more than make up for the defensive differences. 4. Is Rocco interested in winning right out of the gate? Is he willing to put his best team on the field everyday to maximize the opportunity to get a victory? How long a leash will he give our more expensive “starters” Sanchez, Kepler and Urshela before giving some of the others (Godoy, Larnach, and Arraez) more innings? Last season we were out of the race by early May. If we don’t start strong, how long until Rocco will pivot? Just a few lineup questions to chew on…

One of my fellow TDers explained how the catching and dh rules work. If your backup C is DHing, he can replace the injured starting but the team loses the DH spot. That is one reason why we must carry three Cs. The second reason is that we need someone who can actually catch when we need some solid defensive catching. So Sanchez will hit 0.210, have a few dingers but strike out at a ridiculous clip, make $11MM and take away a roster spot and valuable ABs from one of our emerging youngsters. Yeah, that’s a good situation - lol. Sanchez has no position being on this team. We now have arguably the weakest lineup at C in the league after having one of the best. Yes, I’m happy that it all led to Correa’s one year rental. But it did not have to be that way. Sanchez is at worst one and done as a Twin and at best we can move him for anything as soon as possible. Btw, he’s not alone. Including Sanchez, we have four overpaid, veterans trying to prove their value with bounceback years but who are keeping Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Rooker, Celestino and others from getting the experience they need to develop. Will any of these veterans hit over 0.230 this year? I hope they all do and have great years - but I’ve got the under.

Larnach is in the same boat as Miranda and Martin - all are solid prospects who have pretty much done (or soon will in Martin’s case) what they have needed to earn a spot in the majors. Right now we have four players on the team who are blocking their innings and/ABs: Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez. The Twins have over $33MM committed to those four this year. I hope we contend early and these players produce. But if they don’t, Larnach et al should get their chances and the cash should be reinvested in pitching.

You are correct that Kepler’s job security is threatened. Patience is required, but it’s quite possible that if Max doesn’t start hitting, Larnach is a starting OFer for us by early summer and Martin is as well by the trade deadline.

I’ll be the contrarian and suggest that playing time/ABs should be based on actual production. So after about the first couple of weeks, if that suggestion holds, we should be looking at something like this: 1. Buxton CF 2. Arraez DH 3. Polanco 2B 4. Correa SS 5. Kiriloff 1B 6. Miranda 3B 7. Larnach RF 8. Jeffers C 9. Martin LF Of these four veterans - Kepler, Sano, Urshela, and Sanchez - I have the most hope for Sano and Urshela; however, all four better get on their horses or they should be riding the pine and/or getting moved before the deadline. We do not have the luxury of taking a full 4-6 weeks off like last year waiting for our “proven” players - who haven’t proved much in the last year or two - to demonstrate whether they can find their groove again.

Get used to those box scores……

Thank you for this comprehensive post. Very informative and a hopeful take. If anything, it’s more likely that his hitting rebounds - at least he was a really good hitter at one point. He’s never been a good catcher, so we shouldn’t expect his catching to improve. Thus, it may turn out Gary DH’s more than he catches. We will need to carry three catchers for sure. I will be cheering for Gary. But, I’ve never been a big believer in the change of scenery theory for veteran professionals; so at this point I’ve got the under…..hope I’m wrong.

Let’s say the Twins move Correa at the deadline. If so, they would have a good chance to add at least a couple of solid players - most likely young, controllable and potentially big contributors as our new young core matures. So for about $20MM and the possible upside for Correa we could acquire several good young players. That’s a good deal if such a situation transpires.

Going into this season, my assumption was the Twins were going to transition into opening a new window starting in ‘23. Lots of young talent on the mound and in the field needing time to season. This deal is perfect in that it provides upside for this year, but improves the rebuild plan if desired. Hear me out. If Correa is having a great year but the Twins aren’t competing and Correa looks like he will opt out, the Twins move him at the deadline for several additional pieces that accelerate the opening of the new window. Essentially the FO could be paying about $20MM to get several cheaper, controllable pieces for the future. That’s actually a good alternative if Correa will be leaving. Btw, it also pretty much guarantees that Correa, if he wants to, will be playing for a contender this year if it’s not the Twins. Not much downside for either party here. Brilliant move.

The more I think about it, it’s really a one year deal. Don’t get me wrong, I like the deal. Maybe Correa likes it here and he hangs out for more than one year. Maybe we renegotiate a new deal after next year. Maybe Lewis really is a shortstop and is ready sooner rather than later. Maybe we trade him at the deadline for a haul. Etc, etc. The point is that this thing could go a number of ways, but for today I’m ecstatic.

I was one of those we did not like the last trade (and in a vacuum it was a poor trade - it made the lineup worse). And as days went on, things looked more bleak. Last night as it was reported that we likely were not favored to get Story and before this news posted, I commented that I had always supported Falvey and the FO and thought the Pohlads were great owners. But that I was not excited about this year’s team. I clearly needed more patience and underestimated the commitment and the plan. I was wrong to not trust that another plan was in the works. So yes, I am one of those posters who needs to say I was wrong about doubting the plan and was too impatient in my condemnation of the last trade (to the extent the last trade was a requirement for this move - which I will assume it was). As for this move, I’m both ecstatic and surprised by the deal itself and length of the deal - the press was talking up to 8 by $25/30MM. It’s the perfect length deal at three years on so many fronts. With Correa at SS, Urshela/Miranda at 3B, Polanco at 2B and Kiriloff/Sano at 1B with Arraez and Gordon in the utility roles, the Twins infield is in good shape. It’s likely we will carry three catchers and Sanchez (sorry, but I still think he has no place on the team) will DH more than I originally thought and on those days Sano will play first and Kiriloff LF. I apologize to my fellow TDers for jumping the gun on my condemnation of the last trade and not having the patience to let the off-season plan take a more final form.

I knew I liked Falvey/FO and the Pohlads. Patience is a wonderful virtue and I wish I had more of it. Perfect length deal money be damned. Congrats to the organization. Now we are better. Much better. Now we are committed to compete. With that type of investment, maybe more to follow? Could be…. I am impressed and pleased and excited for baseball again.

Maybe the FO is done….

No reason to be sorry. You are spot on.