Nashvilletwin

Agree 100%. Both will be; Julien as well.

Yeah, it always felt like that. I wanted CC a lot, but it’s not like I can forget how worthless he was at the plate when we really needed him. September just felt like garbage time in an NFL game. Swanson would still be a great pickup. A Farmer solution feels like a just a placeholder waiting on a good, but risky, bet. Without CC or Swanson, I’m not sure it makes sense to break the bank on the other Carlos. We need to face facts: we really weren’t that competitive with CC and the lineup we are projecting without him is not an upgrade. We were realistically in somewhat of a rebuild anyway for the next year or two and now that is even more true. Rodon will not lead us to the promised land any more than CC would have. Nope, it’s probably time to implement that time honored small/mid market strategy - build up a young solid core at bargain rates and then splurge a bit when the window looks like it is opening. Sad, but that’s the reality of being a franchise like the Twins in a non-salary cap league.

Farmer is meh. A decent meh. But meh. Waiting for Lewis is risky and likely means 2023 is more of a “competitive rebuild”

On to Swanson.

Correa to the Giants. $350MM over 13 years

This is a good point, but I’m salivating over several years of an infield of CC, Lewis, and Lee, with Arraez and Miranda at 1B/DH and Julien as a swing infielder. If its Swanson instead of CC, so be it. In either case, we have great positional flexibility with a super mix of defense and offense. Also, other than CC or Swanson and a bit of Arraez, the rest of that infield/DH is super cheap and the overall cost is very attractive. Moreover, signing either CC or Swanson hedges us out on prospect risk.

“A” from me. He’s the best catcher we realistically could’ve signed and trading for Murphy was too expensive. And we filled a huge (and vital) position of need. Sign CC now and a couple of relievers, and I’d say along with Vasquez and Farmer (which was a really canny swap for Urshela), I’d say this off-season will have shaped up rather nicely other than one innings eating #2 or 3 starter.

Another difference - he’s probably $10MM/year cheaper which is worth a really good relief pitcher each year. Hard to say all things considered - including the intangibles and opportunity cost of money (which is a real thing to a mid market franchise like the Twins) - which player overall would contribute more. Love CC, but Swanson is also a very, very good baseball player. I’d still take CC as the franchise face alongside Buxton. However, if Swanson ends up being our guy on a shorter, cheaper deal with fewer opt outs or no trade clauses, we shouldn’t be upset.

??

I have know idea why people do not give Gordon his due. Replace Max with Gordon and maybe bat him #9 behind Vasquez as more of a speed guy on base for Arraez.

Excellent addition - cost is fine too. Really checks all our boxes - strong defensively, good with a young staff, veteran presence, decent bat. Let’s get CC and some bullpen help and call it a day on the FA front

FDG, you ask a reasonable question. Let’s see what happens with CC. But assuming he goes elsewhere, the “youth movement”/“competitive rebuild” is likely upon us. What will that look like? Here are a few predictions: Kepler and Polanco are gone no later than the deadline (Kepler likely this week, lol). Larnach and Kiriloff get every chance to get healthy and play meaningful innings. Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, Kiriloff and Wallner are our five outfielders starting the year. One of Mahle, Gray and Maeda is extended - the other two are moved at the deadline if we are not in contention. Lewis, Lee, Julien, Wallner and Martin are all on the big club playing valuable innings by August. Arraez and Farmer stay the entire year. Arraez because we need someone to put some butts in the seats besides 100 - Game Buxton and Farmer because we need at least one adult in the room. SWR, Varland, Henriquez and Enlow are on the big club pitching meaningful innings by mid-season. Our payroll drops to under $100MM, saving us $50MM to reinvest for 2024 after we see what sticks from the above. We add a few more relievers this year because we all know that a shut down pen is the cheapest way to being relevant (especially with a five inning/two times through the order starter strategy). Finally, ownership realises that W-L is not the sole basis for judging success this upcoming season - young player development is more important. The epiphany is Rocco and crew are not the right guys to develop young talent and he is replaced after next season. Honestly, no heart troubles here. Just the opposite. We embrace our business model as a small-mid market team and we build a solid young core on a limited payroll (somewhat aligning revenues - lower expected gate - with expenses) until we can augment that visible core with some FA talent to open up a couple year window. Btw, assuming we are not in contention and we managed to sign CC, the above still pretty much holds true except Farmer is also moved at the deadline, and we have a little less to spend next off-season.

Too bad. That is the type of solid performing, reliable inning eater we could have used at a comparatively reasonable price.

Get rid of the shift, throw in a short RF porch, add a gold glove, and you have the perfect fit for Kepler in the Bronx. We’ll take back Rortvedt and a decent reliever.

$73MM CBP. Crazy, but true….

Agreed. Hope I’m wrong but if Correa signs elsewhere, this off-season looks very bleak. Our FO will likely cap it off by trading Arraez and then when Buxton gets hurt again we can all watch some extremely low octane baseball. We keep our payroll powder dry at well under $100MM and try to put butts in seats selling the youth movement. But 2023 need not be a complete write-off if: 1) Polanco, Kepler, and probably Mahle, are traded by the deadline and 2) we get to see a lot of Julien, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Wallner, SWR, Varland, Henriquez, and Sands. A marginally competitive rebuild in 2023 is looking more like a possibility with every passing day…..

…..and 6) the sun needs to start rising in the west.

Exactly. You nailed it. The goal is to win a lot of 1-0 games? With a five inning starter and our pen? Yeah, trade Luis and lose all our better hitters - let’s see how many fans want to watch that. I watched nearly every Twins game last season - right up to the end. The two hitters I made sure to watch each at bat were BB and LA. For me, that was must see TV. Right now the three most popular Twins are Buxton, Correa and Arraez. Twins strategy to put butts in the seats? Play one for 50 games, lose another to free agency, and trade the third for a pitcher who throws 5-6 innings a game every 5 games.

I’m all for advanced stats. But my eye test tells me when we had runners on or runners on in scoring position last season, Luis was by far the Twin we wanted at the plate. He was also the Twin most opposing pitchers did not want to see at the plate in those situations. Luis is a tough out and by far the toughest out - especially when it matters - on a team chock full of easy outs. We want Lopez? A one year guy (albeit a really good one year) with rotator cuff history? Offer the Marlins Kepler and Polanco. I know they wouldn’t take either, or even both, of those declining names. But don’t trade the one guy on the team who makes the opposing pitchers work the hardest and consistently produces at the plate when it most matters.

Technically Gordon? Gordon is our best performing all around outfielder and it’s not really close.

$25MM a year 11 years from now is only about $10-12MM in today’s $s at most. Plus revenues/budgets/salaries will more than double as well over that period, and by 2034 Bogaerts will be getting paid less than a mop up reliever or a third catcher. The question for a number of owners is not annual cash flow; instead it’s mostly equity value growth coupled with ego.

As of now, any of Dollander, Crews, Langford, Gonzalez, or Bradfield will do fine. Those are probably the top 5 college picks and we have #5. Ideally Dollander or Langford (Crews is the most unlikely) falls to us. What a great stroke of luck that lottery was.

Let’s face it, it was always going to be hard for the Giants to compete with that short right field fence in NY. I can imagine that Judge told the Giants he’d sign with them, but they’d have to move the right field wall in - lol.

Prices are very high this year. With the Giants and Cubs supposedly all in on CC, it will be hard for the Twins to compete. Still hopeful though. Shouldn’t be long before we know.

Last year Lee miraculously fell to us at 8. For 2023, at the moment I’m hoping the Tennessee pitcher Dollander or Florida power hitting OF Langford somehow is there for us at 5. But they certainly wouldn’t be there at 13!