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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    You and me both. Haha Hang in there though. Hope I’m wrong, but one month does not a season make. He sure looks good, though.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    A World Series contending Twins team will not have a such a limited “core”. Sure, it will have leaders and high(er) priced veteran players (who btw, need to produce more - looking at you CC and BB). But the true “core” for the truly next multiple year “open window” is going to comprised of young(ish), cheaper, rising players - both in the field and on the mound. Lee, Lewis, Julien, Rodriguez, maybe Kiriloff and Larnach, Ryan, Ober, Prielipp, SWR, Varland, Raya, Duran and others - some or most of these players are going to be the true “core”. These are the players that need to reach their potential (that’s right, looking at you Rocco and staff - that’s your most important job over the next three years) and be here on relatively cheap, controllable contracts for multiple years. That’s how small/mid-market teams like the Twins can truly compete over several years,
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Nice outing by Ober. He’s proven over last year, spring training and now his first big league start this year that he is no worse than #6 in the pecking order. Not clear which of Varland or SWR is #7 and which is #8.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Spencer Steer having a strong start for the Reds.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Pretty standard Twins loss tonight: some cheap hits (Jax is the tough luck kid this year), a complete mind-bending fielding faux pas, and no runs after two on and no outs in the 9th. So a combination of bad luck, stupid baseball, inability to move runners over, lack of hitting, and possibly (note I said possibly) questionable managerial decisions (maybe the shift and deciding not to move the runners over). Pretty much par for the course. Having said that, Mahle had a great outing and Gallo hit a rope HR. Those are encouraging events - I hope they keep it up. (As an aside, I’ve had the under on the performance of those two and they (thankfully) are proving me wrong). Get ‘em tomorrow.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    Most of these players - Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Varland, Ober, maybe even Larnach and Kiriloff (less likely Lee) will be up and down this year based on injuries and performance. Gallo, Solano, Martin, Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, Mahle and Maeda are probably sticking around for the season - maybe one or two get moved around the deadline, but I’ve got the under on two. Castro is the only one who could be asked to head to St. Paul. The good news is that a) we are winning with this strategy and b) all of them except Farmer should be gone next year.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Haha. Like that - here’s another family favorite. Greggory - the poster - is like the farmer tending his crops - he’s “out standing” in his field.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Fantastic deal. Great job by the FO! This takes the sting out of the deal by a great deal. Hat’s off to all and congrats to Pablo as well. We will get one more - hopefully Gray or some other FA next offseason - to go with Ryan and Lopez. Then we have the youngins’ on the way. The starting staff vision is very rosy.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Great post. I think I’ll save it for further reference. Thank you.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Trade working for both teams. Arraez hit for the cycle tonight - first in Marlins’ history.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Did Vasquez bust it down the line in the 8th. Kinda looked like he got a late jump after assuming the ball was going to bleed into right. Ah, maybe not.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    And it was all so avoidable……
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Another overpaid “one and done” project for the Twins who might not even be in the Bigs next year (ala Gary Sanchez). Yes, I know he’s a Twin so I’m supposed to cheer for the guy. I will, but my heart won’t really be in it.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    There is no way anyone can say the trade was awful from the perspective of what we received vs. what we gave up. The success, or lack thereof, of the trade will be determined in the future. So let’s all be patient. And given where we were when the trade was made, coupled with a definite strategy the Twins chose to pursue this year, the rationale for the trade was strong. My only issue is that trade might not have been necessary if the FO had better understood where Mahle and Maeda were in their healing earlier. The addition of Lopez came pretty late. There were several FAs we could have moved on earlier in the process. And, I’m sorry, but I’d gladly replace Gallo’s money for a FA pitcher and keeping Arraez.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    The “bitter trade” stems from the fact with a little more info or insight re Maeda and Mahle’s readiness for the season, the need for an additional starter might have been solved earlier via free agency rather than later via a trade (of, arguably, our best hitter, biggest spark plug, and many fans’ favorite player). Lopez looked great yesterday at the top of the rotation, no doubt. Let’s hope that continues. For my fellow TDers who will wonder where the $’s might have come from, I offer you two words: Joey Gallo.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    A few quick observations: 1. The Twins overall strategy for the year was on display yesterday. Lead with pitching and fielding and score a run or two more than the other guys. I won’t be surprised if we win quite a few games like yesterday’s victory. 2. Lopez looked as advertised. Let’s hope he continues that effort with similar results. 3. The Twins played a clean game in the field. That is truly something to celebrate. Re baserunning, Larnach might have been thrown out at the plate and he also almost got doubled up on a foul pop out. 4. The hats are horrible, just horrible. 5. The pitch clock is the best new introduction to the game since the DH. 6. This team is going to need Julien’s bat at the top of the order pretty dang soon - when is the service time date? 7. Can’t wait until Saturday!
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Without a division title and at least a playoff win, Rocco needs to demonstrate the ability to develop the young talent he is provided in order to remain in his position. 2024 is likely going to be a year when a number of our top prospects are finally going to graduate to the Bigs. Getting this young talent to continually improve is a key, if not the key, to the Twins having a genuine open window for several years.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Saw that Hoffman was granted his release and Coulombe was actually traded to the O’s for “cash considerations”
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Geez, another head scratcher. Coulombe, Hoffman, Sands, Pagan is probably the correct order of projected value to the Twins this season. Guess which two made the team and which two we will lose to other clubs.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    I love the attitude as well - primarily because Gray is publicly acknowledging and accepting on behalf of the starting staff what the FO’s strategy is this year: namely, this team is designed to live or die based on the starters. Gray is basically saying to the FO and Rocco: “You know and we know how this team is built - so give us the damn ball and let us do our job”.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Great summary - thanks! You asked about opening day starting lineup. If we’d like to maximise our winning probability, here’s my take: 1. Buxton (DH) 2. Julien (2B) 3. Correa (SS) 4. Miranda (1B) 5. Kepler (RF) 6. Larnach (LF 7. Farmer (3B) 8. Vasquez (C) 9. Gordon (CF) Bench players: Jeffers, Gallo, Taylor and Solano. Rotation: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Mahle Bullpen: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Maeda, Moran, and Pagan or Sands Oops, Julien isn’t even on the team, right? Right, but at this moment, this is the best lineup we could field - assuming, of course, we care more about winning than reputations, $’s, major league tolling, and egos. Yeah, that’s too big of an assumption.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    This excellent article made me wonder which players would be in the starting lineup if the choice were based on merit vs. other factors (i.e. reputation, $’s, FO/Manager ego, etc.)? One take: Larnach (LF), Gordon (CF), Kepler (RF), Farmer (3B), Correa (SS), Julien (2B), Miranda (1B), Vasquez (C), and Buxton (DH). Gallo, Solano, and Taylor on the bench. On the bump, Ober over Maeda; but Maeda over Pagan as a reliever.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Agree with the top three comments: Larnach played his way onto the varsity - hard to have a better spring than that; Ober is way too good to have languishing on the JV - the Twins are foregoing their best chance for wins by not having him start every fifth day; Rocco once again does not appear to have his team ready to go out of the gate - but we shall see. Also, Kepler had a nice spring.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    A couple of observations: 1. Yes, it’s very possible that the Twins, as a stand-alone business entity, lose money on a GAAP basis and on a cash basis. It is not clear how the Twins P&L impacts the rest of the Pohlads’ business interests or the overall EV of either the franchise or their other operations. 2. Going to a Twins game is not a Giffen Good (it’s possible that in the insane NYC or LA worlds, the highest priced seats might actually exhibit some Giffen Goods characteristics). Like standard goods and services, as Twins prices rise, consumption falls. However, on offset to this standard economic theory is that with a winning, competing for the playoffs team comes an added value to the consumer - which both flattens and shifts the demand curve for Twins tickets. The A’s have capitulated on this point; the Twins are shooting for it. 3. The Pohlads are decent owners, and, yes, have likely been investing capital each year since COVID to produce better fan experiences - from the team on the field to the ballpark. There is a lot that goes into their capital allocation decisions across their many businesses, including the Twins. At the moment, as it relates to the Twins, there appears to be a good, healthy mix between rational ROI analysis, ego for a winner, and we live in this community too.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly. There is no reason based on recent results on the mound that Ober does not break camp as the fifth, and possibly the fourth, starter. Let’s keep an eye on our FO and coaching staff to see when they get smarts and courage to move Ober in and one of Mahle or Maeda out. Btw, Arraez was traded because both Mahle and Maeda were looking more than iffy.
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