TwinsDr2021

If I running the Twins, there is zero chance I am extending him for 10 years and 200 plus million. The Twins have control of him for the next 4 season and up until (edit: though) age 29 season. So they are buying ages 30 - 35, nope. I love me some Lewis but you don't give that kind of money to a player that has played 118 in the last last 4 seasons combined. (Comparison Witt has played 432 games) I would probably look at like a 6 year deal to buy out his first two years of FA and give him the same numbers as Witt, 2, 7, 13, 19, 30, 35 which is 106 million.

So the plan is to put 36/37 Santana at 1B fulltime or Miranda? He is coming off a years of OPS+ of 103, 100, 81, 93. I can't see that happening because if AK starts slow and Santana starts like Gallo last year, AK just becomes a bench or demoted player. If he isn't healthy enough to play the field he should go on the DL and when healthy can be inserted into the lineup. As for Wallner it seems pretty obvious it is his job to lose, and to be honest I don't really think it matters how he performs in spring training, because I can't see the Twins putting him in AAA and giving the job to Larnach. To me Larnach career is going to look like Stevenson's a great AAA player and plan B/C/D for injury replacement.

Last year started with Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda with Ober and Varland in AAA. That was best starting staff/depth in my lifetime as a Twins fan. This year Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddock, and DeSclafani with Varland, SWR, Headrick is a fairly significant drop off IMO. (you could add Festa but he isn't on 40 man). Still it is reminiscent of some of the staffs of playoff past, so I think with some luck and health it should be fine, but I believe the offense has to better than last year.

They both are more likely to end up like Fernado Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Mejia, Jorge than future rotation pieces for years to come. But with that said Festa could end up like Kyle Gibson and Raya like Berrios so I think Raya is the higher rated prospect, but I think Festa is the most likely to for sure end up in the majors. The question I always ask myself is what separates Tanner Bibee and Joe Ryan types from Cole Sands, Josh Winder and 100's of other similar prospects.

I tend to disagree with your trying to replace the wins, the Twins need to replace 288.33 innings and 52 starts (Gray 184, Maeda 14.33) Ober and Ryan can replace 60 or so of those innings, Paddack another 100 or so and maybe DeSclafani picks up the rest. That is perfect world, if some of that doesn't happen Varland can hopefully pick that up. In a not so perfect world the Twins will be running minor league guys in and out. (Not my favorite solution)

Why? because he is the Twins best pitching prospects and the best pitchers in baseball are around that number (yes, generally a bit lower) I don't hope Raya turns into a 150-160 innings pitcher (which wouldn't be bad just not worthy of the Twins top pitching prospect). I want him to be one of the top pitchers in the league and those pitchers are generally between 180-205. Will he get there this year, NOPE, next year, NOPE, but after that why not? I would ask how many minor league pitchers that don't attempt to pitch a 3rd time though, magically can do it in the majors? (I am not asking for that this year, but why not by 2026)

Is cautiously optimist acceptable? I don't get overly excited about a starting pitcher averaging 4 innings a start in the minors, to me that screams future relief pitcher, Until a minor league starter starts blowing away hitters for more than a couple of innings I can't get too excited (Raya for example) but I can be hopeful. In Festa's case I hope they release the reigns a bit and he starts doing what he has been doing for 5, 6, 7 innings then my optimism can turn to excitement. (More like Varland)

I respectfully disagree that are the only things pitchers can control(The best of the best are obviously or usually really good at those 3), Giving up a rocket off the wall for a double, or giving up a hit that no matter what the defense didn't effect, or making a mistake pitch on the outside when all the defensive players are shifted. Only counting those things glorifies the give everything you got, run up pitch counts, short starts and discounts pitcher that actually are using their talent to keep pitch counts down, pitch longer into the game, reduce bullpen usage and win games. Results matter .The Twins won games Ober started (16-10) at a ..615 clip, Lopez (19-13) at a .593 clip. The both ended up with about the same ERA, Lopez averaged a bit more per start and did it in 6 more starts and went about doing it a different way (striking out 1.8 more batters per 9, walking .4 more batters per 9 or giving up .3 homer per game), so IMO he had the better year, but I don't know that should be considered significantly better just unless it is based on games and innings

My point was last year it went Gray, Bibee, Lopez in terms of WAR in the Central, and the guy that finished 2nd in the ROY and had the second highest WAR gets no mention, but Ryan, Ragans, and Skubal do? I will say I don't understand what talent of the pitcher vs results even means.

Not to nic pick, but wasn't Tanner Bibee better last year (at least based on WAR?)

Got to be honest I don't get the signing of Santana, unless they know something about AK. (Seems like the exact thing I said about Gallo last year, but at least he could play multiple positions.) You trade Polanco to save money and spend that savings on a 38 year old 1B/DH?

Twice in his career has he produced of oWAR of 1.8 and will turn 31 in 25 days. so no I am not extending him unless he takes a huge home town discount.

AK is the cautionary tale of all minor league players and the hopes and dreams of fans. He was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball and 4 seasons later and at the age of 26 is still trying to get it figured out and stay healthy. If he can stay healthy and get it figured out he could have a pretty darn good career, probably not with the Twins though. This is the problem with anointing minor league player as the solution prematurely. (Martin, Miranda, etc..) If he does figure it out (and man I hope he does) he starts getting expensive real quick, and that why teams like the Twins need their young guys to be healthy and good within the first couple of years, so get the production out of them when they are cheap. IMO the Twins put him at 1B and in the middle of the order and hope he is everything we hope he is and, pay him arb next year and start looking to trade him for a really nice return. Or be terrible and hurt cut him and let him resurface someplace else in a few years.

I am tore on the trade, I understand and agree with trading guys towards the end of their contract, it is what teams in the Twins situation must do. So it was good that they got a highly rated prospect, but I guess trading for two pitchers that are 33 and older doesn't do much for me. It looks like the Twins tried to play the trade both ways, salary dump and getting prospects and succeeded in neither very well. Polanco was never bringing back names people were hoping for and probably wasn't going to bring back more prospects either. IMO the Twins should give 2B to Lee and see how it goes (unless he is terrible in the spring) give Julien DH and back up plan for Lee.

IMO a pitcher that averages over 6 innings a start is worth more than Fan Graphs.

Can you really extrapolate that? I mean he only had 48 plate appearances against lefties with a .447 OPS. I really like him and think he will be good/great but lets not get crazy yet.

As of now, wouldn't SWR be the 6th?

"Martin has the potential to be a future All-Star." Can't this be said about every minor league player? Martin will be 25 before the season starts and hasn't spent 1 day in the majors at this point it seems like a stretch to say future all star. (I hope he is, though) IMO, the underrated Twins prospects are the prospects that are 21/22 that played in high A, AA last year and aren't in the Twins top 10-15 range.

I am not a fan of Hicks, but if the choice is Hicks on the Twins bench most of the time or Martin, I am going with Hicks. If Hicks is terrible (or just not good) he can be kicked to the curb and Martin can be brought up, if Martin is terrible (or just not good) then you are looking at adding another older mid 20's prospect to the 40 man and bringing him up to play the bench. That is not a plan on repeating as division champion.

With that logic, why not sign JA Happ, the Twins were 9 -10 in his starts?

IMO, Gray was lucky to get his contract. I have been saying this for the last few years, teams aren't going to pay 20+ million (or whatever top dollar is) to a starting pitchers that isn't going to consistently be pitching in the 7th inning. Why pay a pitcher 25 million to pitch 5 innings and go the cheap route for the last 4, it doesn't make business or baseball sense.

Personally I don't see the Twins trading Kepler, mostly because they don't have any real depth in the outfield and if Buxton gets hurt the Twins could end up with a terrible outfield. But also because somebody like Bellinger is available, why would a team trade for Kepler and give up prospects (or pitching) when it is likely they could just sign Bellinger and keep the prospects, unless they were trying to dump salary which again why would the Twins take on Salary? If the Twins signed Bellinger (which I don't think they will, unless it is super late and he is willing to sign a 1 year deal prove himself deal) then it opens up to trading Wallner, which again I don't think the Twins want to do.

FYI, Martin was tied for 31st in AAA in OBP and of those 31 his SLG was only above 2 players. , lots of minors league players have good OBP, but it takes more than that to be a major league player. (Not saying Martin can't be, just trying to put some prospective on his)

For comparisons McNeil minors leagues number are (.312/.380/.444/.825) and Martin's (.256/.388/.361/.750) I was pretty high on Martin and have soured a bit, but I think he has a chance to have a pretty decent and fairly long career but I am not expecting him to unseat any of the Twins around his age. (Lewis/Lee/Julien/Wallner) IMO he hasn't done enough in the minors and would only hurt his career sitting on the bench in the majors and only playing a few days a week, so I would start him, Miranda, and Larnach in the minors and make them force their way up.

IMO, that is banking on quite a bit of hope, I agree Lopez, Ryan and Ober will be fine. If Paddack does what Maeda does that would be great after pitching 27 innings the last two years and only doing that once back in 2019 , saying SWR after a 4.91 ERA last year in AAA, Varland with a 4.63 ERA last and Festa pitching 92.33 innings last year mostly in AA(4.39 ERA) is very hopeful. Saying Raya can step in after pitching 65 and 63 innings the last two years as a gloried relief pitcher is asking for a miracle. (I do think he has opportunity for a great future, just not next year) I don't see it as much different than 21 when Berrios (Lopez), Pineda (Ryan), Maeda (Ober), Ober (Paddack), Dobnak (Varland), Happ, Jax, Winder (SWR) and Thorpe (Festa) would be fine. Well all hope they will be who we hope they will be, but AK, Lewis and Buxton have never been healthy and Polanco hasn't been the last two years, Miranda was amazing bad last year. Being prudent and planning for the worst is a good strategy, wheras hope and prayer isn't. If Lopez, Ryan or Ober get hurt and/or Buxton, Lewis, AK, or Correa get hurt and a couple of our studs (Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Lewis) regress even a little bit and the back up plan is a bunch of mid 20 not so highly rated prospects is the solution, things could go bad in a hurry, sure Martin, Miranda, Larnach or others could really step up, but statistically speaking which is more likely to happen? and that is what you have to plan for. Now I don't think all the bad things will happen but I want this FO prepared (Like last year) for it to happen. What is worse this go bad and young guys are called upon and they aren't great and the Twins miss the playoffs or they get some veteran the Twins do great and we don't see Larnach, Miranda, Martin and others and a repeat of 23 happens? I will take the second option every time. With that said I think the infield depth is taken care of and maybe/probably the bullpen as well) but I would like so see another starter brought in (doesn't have to be a super stud but it has to be better than Happ and Shoemaker)and a right handed 4th outfielder. IMO that puts them on the same level as last year if injuries or regression happens.